Intrinsic value of Haverty Furniture - HVT

Previous Close

$21.00

  Intrinsic Value

$11.84

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-44%

Previous close

$21.00

 
Intrinsic value

$11.84

 
Up/down potential

-44%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HVT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  836
  856
  878
  902
  930
  960
  992
  1,028
  1,066
  1,107
  1,151
  1,197
  1,247
  1,300
  1,356
  1,415
  1,478
  1,545
  1,615
  1,689
  1,767
  1,850
  1,937
  2,029
  2,125
  2,227
  2,334
  2,447
  2,565
  2,690
Variable operating expenses, $m
  788
  806
  827
  850
  876
  904
  935
  968
  1,004
  1,043
  1,084
  1,128
  1,175
  1,224
  1,277
  1,333
  1,392
  1,455
  1,521
  1,591
  1,665
  1,743
  1,825
  1,911
  2,002
  2,098
  2,199
  2,305
  2,416
  2,534
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  788
  806
  827
  850
  876
  904
  935
  968
  1,004
  1,043
  1,084
  1,128
  1,175
  1,224
  1,277
  1,333
  1,392
  1,455
  1,521
  1,591
  1,665
  1,743
  1,825
  1,911
  2,002
  2,098
  2,199
  2,305
  2,416
  2,534
Operating income, $m
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
EBITDA, $m
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  211
  221
  232
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
Earnings before tax, $m
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
Tax expense, $m
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
Net income, $m
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  98

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  471
  482
  494
  508
  523
  540
  558
  578
  600
  623
  647
  674
  702
  731
  763
  796
  832
  869
  909
  951
  995
  1,041
  1,090
  1,142
  1,196
  1,253
  1,313
  1,377
  1,444
  1,514
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  471
  482
  494
  508
  523
  540
  558
  578
  600
  623
  647
  674
  702
  731
  763
  796
  832
  869
  909
  951
  995
  1,041
  1,090
  1,142
  1,196
  1,253
  1,313
  1,377
  1,444
  1,514
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.775
  1.776
  1.777
  1.776
  1.778
  1.778
  1.778
  1.779
  1.777
  1.777
  1.779
  1.776
  1.776
  1.778
  1.777
  1.778
  1.776
  1.778
  1.777
  1.776
  1.776
  1.777
  1.777
  1.777
  1.777
  1.777
  1.778
  1.777
  1.776
  1.777
Average production assets, $m
  236
  241
  247
  254
  262
  271
  280
  290
  301
  312
  324
  338
  352
  367
  382
  399
  417
  436
  455
  476
  498
  522
  546
  572
  599
  628
  658
  690
  723
  759
Working capital, $m
  84
  86
  89
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  272
Total debt, $m
  58
  62
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  97
  104
  113
  122
  131
  141
  152
  163
  176
  188
  202
  216
  231
  247
  264
  282
  301
  320
  341
  363
  386
  410
  435
Total liabilities, $m
  170
  174
  179
  184
  189
  196
  202
  209
  217
  225
  234
  244
  254
  265
  276
  288
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  413
  433
  454
  475
  498
  523
  548
Total equity, $m
  300
  307
  315
  324
  334
  345
  356
  369
  383
  397
  413
  430
  448
  467
  487
  508
  531
  555
  580
  606
  635
  664
  695
  728
  763
  800
  838
  878
  921
  966
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  470
  481
  494
  508
  523
  541
  558
  578
  600
  622
  647
  674
  702
  732
  763
  796
  832
  870
  909
  950
  995
  1,041
  1,090
  1,141
  1,196
  1,254
  1,313
  1,376
  1,444
  1,514
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  98
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
Funds from operations, $m
  57
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
Cash from operations, $m
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  68
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
Free cash flow, $m
  28
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  54
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  31
  31
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Cash available for distribution, $m
  24
  24
  24
  23
  23
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  23
  22
  20
  19
  18
  16
  15
  14
  13
  11
  10
  9
  8
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc. is a retailer of residential furniture and accessories. The Company sells home furnishings in its retail stores and through its Website, havertys.com. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had 124 stores in 16 states in the Southern and Midwest regions. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's retail store space totaled approximately 4.5 million square feet for 124 stores. It also offers financing through a third-party finance company, as well as an internal revolving charge credit plan. The Company's retail locations are operated using the Havertys name. It offers mattress product lines, such as Sealy, Tempur-Pedic, Serta, Stearns & Foster and Beautyrest Black. The Company's customers are college educated women in middle to upper-middle income households. The Company stores are located in areas, including Florida, Texas, North Carolina, Tennessee and Maryland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Haverty Furniture (HVT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.8
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 11.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 21
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 18.4%
Total Debt to Equity 19.5%
Interest Coverage 16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Total Capital 8.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 9.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.8%
EBITDA Margin 9.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Operating Margin 5.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Net Profit Margin 3.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Effective Tax Rate 39.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 47%
Payout Ratio 107.1%

HVT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HVT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $820 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Haverty Furniture. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Haverty Furniture. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HVT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HVT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Haverty Furniture, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Haverty Furniture.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HVT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HVT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Haverty Furniture.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Haverty Furniture. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HVT stock is equal to 0.5%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HVT are equal to 28.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Haverty Furniture operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HVT is equal to 10.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $294 million for Haverty Furniture - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21 million for Haverty Furniture is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Haverty Furniture at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Havertys Reports Sales for Second Quarter   [Jul-06-18 04:09PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Best NasdaqGS Cyclical Dividend Paying Companies   [May-02-18 08:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Haverty Furniture: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-01-18 05:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ April Top Undervalued Stock   [Apr-10-18 10:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Havertys Reports Sales for First Quarter   [06:25AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 5 Stocks Poised to Win in a Down Market   [Apr-05-18 06:00AM  Investopedia]
▶ Havertys Increases its Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Feb-27-18 03:45PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Haverty Furniture posts 4Q profit   [Feb-21-18 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Small Cap Value Stocks That are on Sale   [Feb-08-18 02:45PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Small Cap Value Stocks are on Sale   [Feb-07-18 07:06PM  Zacks]
▶ Havertys Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Nov-07-17 04:39PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Haverty Furniture posts 3Q profit   [Oct-31-17 04:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for October 12th   [Oct-12-17 09:16AM  Zacks]
▶ Furniture Stores Show September Stock Gains   [Oct-09-17 05:17PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Havertys Reports Sales for Third Quarter   [Oct-06-17 06:25AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for October 3rd   [Oct-03-17 09:34AM  Zacks]
▶ RH Joins Elite Club Of Stocks With RS Ratings Over 90   [Sep-08-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ These 3 Stocks Just Raised Their Dividends   [Aug-14-17 07:45AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Havertys Increases its Cash Dividend by 25%   [Aug-08-17 04:18PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Haverty Furniture posts 2Q profit   [Jul-31-17 07:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ McDonald's and KLA-Tencor rise while Hess and Haverty fall   [Jul-07-17 06:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ Havertys Reports Sales for Second Quarter   [06:26AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Havertys Updates Second Quarter Sales   [Jun-20-17 06:35AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Havertys Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [May-09-17 05:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Shares of Haverty Furniture Jump 10% After Solid Quarter   [May-02-17 04:06PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Haverty Furniture posts 1Q profit   [May-01-17 04:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Havertys Reports Sales for First Quarter   [Apr-07-17 06:42AM  GlobeNewswire]
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