Intrinsic value of Haverty Furniture - HVT

Previous Close

$24.30

  Intrinsic Value

$17.11

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-30%

  Value-price divergence*

-71%

Previous close

$24.30

 
Intrinsic value

$17.11

 
Up/down potential

-30%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-71%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HVT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.11
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  822
  838
  858
  880
  905
  932
  962
  995
  1,030
  1,068
  1,109
  1,153
  1,200
  1,250
  1,303
  1,359
  1,419
  1,482
  1,548
  1,619
  1,693
  1,772
  1,855
  1,942
  2,034
  2,131
  2,232
  2,340
  2,453
  2,571
  2,696
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  790
  808
  829
  852
  878
  906
  937
  970
  1,006
  1,045
  1,086
  1,131
  1,177
  1,227
  1,280
  1,336
  1,396
  1,459
  1,525
  1,595
  1,669
  1,747
  1,829
  1,916
  2,007
  2,103
  2,204
  2,310
  2,422
  2,540
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  774
  790
  808
  829
  852
  878
  906
  937
  970
  1,006
  1,045
  1,086
  1,131
  1,177
  1,227
  1,280
  1,336
  1,396
  1,459
  1,525
  1,595
  1,669
  1,747
  1,829
  1,916
  2,007
  2,103
  2,204
  2,310
  2,422
  2,540
Operating income, $m
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  72
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
  136
  142
  149
  156
EBITDA, $m
  77
  78
  80
  82
  84
  87
  90
  93
  96
  100
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
  240
  251
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
Earnings before tax, $m
  46
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
Tax expense, $m
  18
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Net income, $m
  28
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  71
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  63
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  455
  400
  409
  420
  431
  444
  459
  474
  491
  510
  529
  550
  572
  596
  621
  648
  677
  707
  738
  772
  807
  845
  884
  926
  970
  1,016
  1,065
  1,116
  1,170
  1,226
  1,286
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  392
  400
  409
  420
  431
  444
  459
  474
  491
  510
  529
  550
  572
  596
  621
  648
  677
  707
  738
  772
  807
  845
  884
  926
  970
  1,016
  1,065
  1,116
  1,170
  1,226
  1,286
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.097
  2.095
  2.098
  2.095
  2.100
  2.099
  2.096
  2.099
  2.098
  2.094
  2.096
  2.096
  2.098
  2.097
  2.098
  2.097
  2.096
  2.096
  2.098
  2.097
  2.098
  2.097
  2.098
  2.097
  2.097
  2.097
  2.096
  2.097
  2.097
  2.097
  2.096
Average production assets, $m
  232
  236
  242
  248
  255
  263
  271
  281
  291
  301
  313
  325
  338
  352
  367
  383
  400
  418
  437
  457
  478
  500
  523
  548
  574
  601
  630
  660
  692
  725
  760
Working capital, $m
  98
  39
  39
  40
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
Total debt, $m
  55
  56
  60
  64
  69
  75
  81
  88
  95
  103
  112
  121
  130
  141
  152
  163
  176
  189
  202
  217
  232
  249
  266
  284
  303
  323
  344
  366
  390
  414
  440
Total liabilities, $m
  173
  174
  178
  182
  187
  193
  199
  206
  213
  221
  230
  239
  248
  259
  270
  281
  294
  307
  320
  335
  350
  367
  384
  402
  421
  441
  462
  484
  508
  532
  558
Total equity, $m
  282
  226
  232
  237
  244
  252
  260
  269
  278
  288
  299
  311
  324
  337
  352
  367
  383
  400
  418
  437
  457
  478
  501
  524
  549
  575
  603
  632
  662
  694
  728
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  455
  400
  410
  419
  431
  445
  459
  475
  491
  509
  529
  550
  572
  596
  622
  648
  677
  707
  738
  772
  807
  845
  885
  926
  970
  1,016
  1,065
  1,116
  1,170
  1,226
  1,286
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.195
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.330
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.559
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566
  0.566

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  28
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  71
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  91
  95
Funds from operations, $m
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  69
  72
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  184
  192
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  60
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  163
  170
  178
  187
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -91
New CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -126
Free cash flow, $m
  47
  28
  28
  28
  28
  29
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -24
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  23
  32
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  20
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  60
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  88
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  84
  25
  23
  22
  21
  20
  18
  17
  16
  15
  14
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc. is a retailer of residential furniture and accessories. The Company sells home furnishings in its retail stores and through its Website, havertys.com. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had 124 stores in 16 states in the Southern and Midwest regions. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's retail store space totaled approximately 4.5 million square feet for 124 stores. It also offers financing through a third-party finance company, as well as an internal revolving charge credit plan. The Company's retail locations are operated using the Havertys name. It offers mattress product lines, such as Sealy, Tempur-Pedic, Serta, Stearns & Foster and Beautyrest Black. The Company's customers are college educated women in middle to upper-middle income households. The Company stores are located in areas, including Florida, Texas, North Carolina, Tennessee and Maryland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Haverty Furniture (HVT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.3
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 11.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 21
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 18.4%
Total Debt to Equity 19.5%
Interest Coverage 16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Total Capital 8.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 9.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.8%
EBITDA Margin 9.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Operating Margin 5.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Net Profit Margin 3.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Effective Tax Rate 39.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 47%
Payout Ratio 107.1%

HVT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HVT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $822 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Haverty Furniture. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Haverty Furniture. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HVT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HVT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Haverty Furniture, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Haverty Furniture.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HVT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HVT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for Haverty Furniture.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Haverty Furniture. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HVT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HVT are equal to 28.2%.

Life of production assets of 8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Haverty Furniture operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HVT is equal to 4.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $282 million for Haverty Furniture - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.51 million for Haverty Furniture is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Haverty Furniture at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for October 12th   [Oct-12-17 09:16AM  Zacks]
▶ Furniture Stores Show September Stock Gains   [Oct-09-17 05:17PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Havertys Reports Sales for Third Quarter   [Oct-06-17 06:25AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for October 3rd   [Oct-03-17 09:34AM  Zacks]
▶ RH Joins Elite Club Of Stocks With RS Ratings Over 90   [Sep-08-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ These 3 Stocks Just Raised Their Dividends   [Aug-14-17 07:45AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Havertys Increases its Cash Dividend by 25%   [Aug-08-17 04:18PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Haverty Furniture posts 2Q profit   [Jul-31-17 07:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ McDonald's and KLA-Tencor rise while Hess and Haverty fall   [Jul-07-17 06:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ Havertys Reports Sales for Second Quarter   [06:26AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Havertys Updates Second Quarter Sales   [Jun-20-17 06:35AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Havertys Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [May-09-17 05:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Shares of Haverty Furniture Jump 10% After Solid Quarter   [May-02-17 04:06PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Haverty Furniture posts 1Q profit   [May-01-17 04:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Havertys Reports Sales for First Quarter   [Apr-07-17 06:42AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Havertys Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Feb-23-17 04:12PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Haverty Furniture posts 4Q profit   [Feb-21-17 06:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ Havertys Reports Sales for Fourth Quarter   [Jan-09-17 06:22AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc. (HVT) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-09-16 06:00PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Heres Why These Five Stocks Are In Spotlight Today   [Oct-10-16 01:11PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Havertys Reports Sales for Third Quarter   [Oct-07-16 06:20AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of HVT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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