Intrinsic value of Hawkins - HWKN

Previous Close

$41.60

  Intrinsic Value

$23.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-43%

Previous close

$41.60

 
Intrinsic value

$23.52

 
Up/down potential

-43%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HWKN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.00
  11.30
  10.67
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
Revenue, $m
  565
  628
  696
  766
  839
  916
  996
  1,079
  1,165
  1,255
  1,349
  1,446
  1,547
  1,651
  1,760
  1,874
  1,992
  2,115
  2,243
  2,376
  2,515
  2,660
  2,811
  2,969
  3,134
  3,307
  3,487
  3,676
  3,873
  4,079
Variable operating expenses, $m
  519
  576
  636
  699
  764
  833
  904
  979
  1,056
  1,137
  1,207
  1,294
  1,385
  1,479
  1,576
  1,678
  1,783
  1,893
  2,008
  2,127
  2,252
  2,381
  2,517
  2,658
  2,806
  2,961
  3,122
  3,291
  3,467
  3,652
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  519
  576
  636
  699
  764
  833
  904
  979
  1,056
  1,137
  1,207
  1,294
  1,385
  1,479
  1,576
  1,678
  1,783
  1,893
  2,008
  2,127
  2,252
  2,381
  2,517
  2,658
  2,806
  2,961
  3,122
  3,291
  3,467
  3,652
Operating income, $m
  46
  53
  60
  67
  75
  83
  91
  100
  109
  118
  141
  151
  162
  173
  184
  196
  209
  221
  235
  249
  263
  279
  294
  311
  328
  346
  365
  385
  406
  427
EBITDA, $m
  77
  86
  95
  105
  115
  125
  136
  148
  159
  172
  184
  198
  211
  226
  241
  256
  272
  289
  307
  325
  344
  364
  384
  406
  429
  452
  477
  503
  530
  558
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  24
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
Earnings before tax, $m
  41
  46
  52
  58
  64
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  121
  129
  137
  146
  156
  165
  175
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  259
  273
  288
  303
  319
  336
  354
Tax expense, $m
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
Net income, $m
  30
  34
  38
  42
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  88
  94
  100
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  438
  488
  540
  594
  651
  711
  773
  837
  904
  974
  1,046
  1,122
  1,200
  1,281
  1,366
  1,454
  1,545
  1,641
  1,740
  1,843
  1,951
  2,064
  2,181
  2,304
  2,432
  2,565
  2,705
  2,852
  3,005
  3,165
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  438
  488
  540
  594
  651
  711
  773
  837
  904
  974
  1,046
  1,122
  1,200
  1,281
  1,366
  1,454
  1,545
  1,641
  1,740
  1,843
  1,951
  2,064
  2,181
  2,304
  2,432
  2,565
  2,705
  2,852
  3,005
  3,165
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.290
  1.287
  1.289
  1.290
  1.289
  1.288
  1.288
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.290
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.288
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
Average production assets, $m
  222
  248
  274
  302
  331
  361
  392
  425
  459
  495
  531
  570
  609
  651
  694
  738
  785
  833
  884
  936
  991
  1,048
  1,108
  1,170
  1,235
  1,303
  1,374
  1,448
  1,526
  1,607
Working capital, $m
  89
  99
  109
  120
  132
  144
  156
  169
  183
  197
  212
  227
  243
  259
  276
  294
  313
  332
  352
  373
  395
  418
  441
  466
  492
  519
  547
  577
  608
  640
Total debt, $m
  123
  147
  173
  199
  226
  255
  285
  316
  349
  382
  417
  454
  491
  531
  572
  614
  658
  704
  752
  802
  854
  909
  965
  1,025
  1,086
  1,151
  1,219
  1,289
  1,363
  1,440
Total liabilities, $m
  212
  235
  261
  287
  314
  343
  373
  404
  437
  470
  505
  542
  580
  619
  660
  702
  746
  792
  840
  890
  942
  997
  1,053
  1,113
  1,174
  1,239
  1,307
  1,377
  1,451
  1,529
Total equity, $m
  226
  252
  279
  307
  337
  367
  399
  433
  467
  503
  541
  580
  620
  662
  706
  752
  799
  848
  899
  953
  1,009
  1,067
  1,128
  1,191
  1,257
  1,326
  1,399
  1,474
  1,553
  1,636
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  438
  487
  540
  594
  651
  710
  772
  837
  904
  973
  1,046
  1,122
  1,200
  1,281
  1,366
  1,454
  1,545
  1,640
  1,739
  1,843
  1,951
  2,064
  2,181
  2,304
  2,431
  2,565
  2,706
  2,851
  3,004
  3,165
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.550
  0.580
  0.620
  0.650
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.730
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517
  0.517

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  30
  34
  38
  42
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  88
  94
  100
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  43
  46
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
Funds from operations, $m
  61
  67
  73
  80
  87
  94
  101
  109
  117
  126
  131
  140
  150
  160
  170
  181
  192
  203
  215
  228
  241
  255
  269
  284
  300
  316
  333
  351
  369
  389
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
Cash from operations, $m
  51
  57
  63
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  104
  112
  117
  125
  134
  143
  153
  163
  173
  184
  195
  207
  219
  232
  245
  259
  274
  289
  305
  321
  338
  356
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
New CAPEX, $m
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -205
Free cash flow, $m
  11
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  88
  94
  101
  107
  114
  120
  128
  135
  143
  151
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  34
  37
  41
  45
  49
  54
  58
  63
  68
  73
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  185
  195
  206
  217
  228
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  10
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  37
  37
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
Discount rate, %
  5.80
  6.09
  6.39
  6.71
  7.05
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.48
  12.06
  12.66
  13.29
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.81
  18.71
  19.64
  20.62
  21.65
  22.74
  23.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  14
  13
  13
  12
  11
  10
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Hawkins, Inc. distributes, blends and manufactures chemicals and specialty ingredients for its customers in a range of industries. The Company conducts its business in three segments: Industrial, Water Treatment, and Health and Nutrition. Its Industrial segment is engaged in providing industrial chemicals, products and services to various industries, such as agriculture, chemical processing, electronics and energy. Its Water Treatment segment is engaged in providing chemicals, equipment and solutions for potable water, municipal and industrial wastewater, industrial process water and non-residential swimming pool water. The Health and Nutrition segment is engaged in providing ingredient distribution, processing and formulation solutions to manufacturers of nutraceutical, functional food and beverage, personal care, dietary supplement and other nutritional food, and health and wellness products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hawkins (HWKN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.1
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -8.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 43.6%
Total Debt to Equity 47.2%
Interest Coverage 19
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Total Capital 7.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Equity 11%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
EBITDA Margin 12.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Operating Margin 8.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Net Profit Margin 4.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Effective Tax Rate 36.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.6%
Payout Ratio 39.1%

HWKN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HWKN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $504.169 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hawkins. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Hawkins. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HWKN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.8%, whose default value for HWKN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hawkins, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hawkins.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HWKN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HWKN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Hawkins.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hawkins. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HWKN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HWKN are equal to 39.4%.

Life of production assets of 12.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hawkins operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HWKN is equal to 15.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $202.247 million for Hawkins - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 10.684 million for Hawkins is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hawkins at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] Womens charities call for law to cover financial abuse   [Aug-26-18 07:30AM  Financial Times]
▶ Hawkins: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hawkins, Inc. Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2019 Results   [Aug-01-18 05:44PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Hawkins: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-30-18 05:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Download: Paddington 2 sweet and satisfying   [Mar-15-18 10:53PM  Financial Times]
▶ [$$] Authers Note: The Powell Push   [Feb-28-18 10:11PM  Financial Times]
▶ [$$] The Shape of Water larky but frustrating   [Feb-13-18 08:07PM  Financial Times]
▶ Hawkins posts 3Q profit   [Feb-08-18 07:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Financially Strong Is Hawkins Inc (NASDAQ:HWKN)?   [Feb-06-18 09:09AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hawkins, Inc. : December 28, 2017   [Dec-28-17 12:14PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hawkins, Inc. : December 7, 2017   [Dec-07-17 02:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Hawkins posts 2Q profit   [Nov-02-17 05:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hawkins, Inc. Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2018 Results   [Nov-01-17 05:34PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hawkins, Inc. : September 25, 2017   [Sep-25-17 10:39AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hawkins, Inc. : September 1, 2017   [Sep-01-17 07:59PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Hawkins posts 1Q profit   [Aug-09-17 10:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hawkins, Inc. Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2018 Results   [Aug-08-17 06:18PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hawkins, Inc. : June 6, 2017   [Jun-06-17 11:43AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Hawkins posts 4Q profit   [May-31-17 05:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Hawkins, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Hawkins posts 3Q profit   [Feb-08-17 06:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hawkins Inc (HWKN): Royce & Associates Lowers Its Stake   [Jan-04-17 10:53AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Betting On Ring Energy Inc (REI)   [Dec-14-16 08:23AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ CFO of the Year: Kathleen Pepski | Hawkins Inc.   [Nov-28-16 04:01PM  at bizjournals.com]

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