Intrinsic value of Hexindai ADR - HX

Previous Close

$6.30

  Intrinsic Value

$333.49

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$6.30

 
Intrinsic value

$333.49

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of HX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  172
  265
  397
  575
  812
  1,116
  1,498
  1,967
  2,531
  3,197
  3,969
  4,853
  5,850
  6,960
  8,184
  9,519
  10,966
  12,520
  14,179
  15,942
  17,805
  19,766
  21,825
  23,980
  26,231
  28,579
  31,023
  33,567
  36,211
  38,960
Variable operating expenses, $m
  37
  57
  85
  124
  175
  240
  322
  423
  544
  687
  853
  1,043
  1,258
  1,496
  1,759
  2,047
  2,358
  2,692
  3,049
  3,427
  3,828
  4,250
  4,692
  5,156
  5,640
  6,144
  6,670
  7,217
  7,785
  8,376
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
Total operating expenses, $m
  45
  65
  94
  133
  184
  249
  331
  433
  554
  697
  863
  1,053
  1,269
  1,507
  1,770
  2,058
  2,370
  2,704
  3,061
  3,439
  3,841
  4,263
  4,705
  5,169
  5,654
  6,158
  6,684
  7,232
  7,800
  8,391
Operating income, $m
  127
  200
  303
  443
  628
  867
  1,167
  1,534
  1,977
  2,499
  3,106
  3,799
  4,581
  5,453
  6,413
  7,461
  8,596
  9,816
  11,119
  12,502
  13,964
  15,504
  17,120
  18,811
  20,578
  22,420
  24,339
  26,335
  28,411
  30,568
EBITDA, $m
  127
  200
  303
  444
  629
  868
  1,168
  1,537
  1,980
  2,503
  3,111
  3,805
  4,588
  5,461
  6,423
  7,473
  8,610
  9,831
  11,136
  12,521
  13,985
  15,527
  17,146
  18,840
  20,609
  22,455
  24,376
  26,375
  28,454
  30,615
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  6
  8
  12
  17
  22
  29
  37
  46
  57
  69
  82
  97
  113
  130
  149
  169
  190
  212
  236
  260
  286
  313
  341
  371
  401
  433
Earnings before tax, $m
  127
  199
  301
  439
  623
  858
  1,154
  1,518
  1,955
  2,470
  3,069
  3,753
  4,524
  5,384
  6,331
  7,365
  8,483
  9,686
  10,970
  12,333
  13,774
  15,291
  16,884
  18,551
  20,292
  22,107
  23,997
  25,964
  28,009
  30,135
Tax expense, $m
  34
  54
  81
  119
  168
  232
  312
  410
  528
  667
  829
  1,013
  1,222
  1,454
  1,709
  1,988
  2,291
  2,615
  2,962
  3,330
  3,719
  4,129
  4,559
  5,009
  5,479
  5,969
  6,479
  7,010
  7,563
  8,136
Net income, $m
  92
  145
  220
  321
  455
  627
  843
  1,108
  1,427
  1,803
  2,240
  2,740
  3,303
  3,930
  4,621
  5,376
  6,193
  7,071
  8,008
  9,003
  10,055
  11,163
  12,325
  13,542
  14,813
  16,138
  17,518
  18,954
  20,447
  21,999

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  240
  370
  554
  804
  1,134
  1,559
  2,092
  2,747
  3,535
  4,465
  5,544
  6,778
  8,170
  9,720
  11,429
  13,295
  15,315
  17,485
  19,803
  22,265
  24,867
  27,607
  30,482
  33,492
  36,636
  39,914
  43,329
  46,881
  50,574
  54,413
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  240
  370
  554
  804
  1,134
  1,559
  2,092
  2,747
  3,535
  4,465
  5,544
  6,778
  8,170
  9,720
  11,429
  13,295
  15,315
  17,485
  19,803
  22,265
  24,867
  27,607
  30,482
  33,492
  36,636
  39,914
  43,329
  46,881
  50,574
  54,413
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.717
  0.716
  0.717
  0.715
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
Average production assets, $m
  1
  2
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  19
  24
  29
  35
  42
  49
  57
  66
  75
  85
  96
  107
  119
  131
  144
  157
  171
  186
  201
  217
  234
Working capital, $m
  5
  8
  13
  18
  26
  36
  48
  63
  81
  102
  127
  155
  187
  223
  262
  305
  351
  401
  454
  510
  570
  633
  698
  767
  839
  915
  993
  1,074
  1,159
  1,247
Total debt, $m
  14
  35
  64
  104
  156
  224
  309
  413
  538
  686
  858
  1,054
  1,275
  1,522
  1,793
  2,090
  2,411
  2,756
  3,125
  3,516
  3,930
  4,366
  4,823
  5,301
  5,801
  6,323
  6,865
  7,430
  8,017
  8,628
Total liabilities, $m
  38
  59
  88
  128
  180
  248
  333
  437
  562
  710
  881
  1,078
  1,299
  1,546
  1,817
  2,114
  2,435
  2,780
  3,149
  3,540
  3,954
  4,389
  4,847
  5,325
  5,825
  6,346
  6,889
  7,454
  8,041
  8,652
Total equity, $m
  202
  311
  466
  676
  953
  1,311
  1,759
  2,310
  2,973
  3,755
  4,662
  5,700
  6,871
  8,175
  9,612
  11,181
  12,880
  14,705
  16,655
  18,725
  20,913
  23,217
  25,635
  28,167
  30,811
  33,568
  36,439
  39,427
  42,533
  45,761
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  240
  370
  554
  804
  1,133
  1,559
  2,092
  2,747
  3,535
  4,465
  5,543
  6,778
  8,170
  9,721
  11,429
  13,295
  15,315
  17,485
  19,804
  22,265
  24,867
  27,606
  30,482
  33,492
  36,636
  39,914
  43,328
  46,881
  50,574
  54,413
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.070
  0.110
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841
  0.841

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  92
  145
  220
  321
  455
  627
  843
  1,108
  1,427
  1,803
  2,240
  2,740
  3,303
  3,930
  4,621
  5,376
  6,193
  7,071
  8,008
  9,003
  10,055
  11,163
  12,325
  13,542
  14,813
  16,138
  17,518
  18,954
  20,447
  21,999
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
Funds from operations, $m
  93
  146
  220
  321
  456
  628
  845
  1,110
  1,430
  1,807
  2,245
  2,745
  3,310
  3,938
  4,631
  5,388
  6,206
  7,086
  8,025
  9,022
  10,076
  11,186
  12,351
  13,571
  14,844
  16,172
  17,555
  18,994
  20,490
  22,045
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  28
  32
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
Cash from operations, $m
  91
  143
  216
  316
  448
  618
  832
  1,095
  1,412
  1,786
  2,220
  2,717
  3,278
  3,903
  4,592
  5,345
  6,160
  7,036
  7,972
  8,966
  10,017
  11,124
  12,286
  13,502
  14,772
  16,097
  17,477
  18,913
  20,406
  21,957
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
Free cash flow, $m
  90
  142
  215
  314
  446
  615
  829
  1,091
  1,406
  1,779
  2,212
  2,707
  3,266
  3,889
  4,576
  5,327
  6,140
  7,013
  7,947
  8,938
  9,987
  11,091
  12,249
  13,463
  14,730
  16,052
  17,428
  18,860
  20,350
  21,897
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  14
  21
  29
  40
  52
  68
  85
  104
  125
  148
  172
  196
  221
  247
  272
  297
  321
  345
  369
  391
  414
  436
  457
  479
  500
  521
  543
  565
  587
  610
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  14
  21
  29
  40
  52
  68
  85
  104
  125
  148
  172
  196
  221
  247
  272
  297
  321
  345
  369
  391
  414
  436
  457
  479
  500
  521
  543
  565
  587
  610
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  105
  163
  244
  354
  498
  683
  913
  1,195
  1,531
  1,927
  2,383
  2,903
  3,487
  4,136
  4,848
  5,624
  6,461
  7,359
  8,315
  9,330
  10,400
  11,526
  12,707
  13,941
  15,230
  16,573
  17,971
  19,425
  20,937
  22,508
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -76
  -110
  -154
  -210
  -278
  -357
  -449
  -551
  -662
  -782
  -908
  -1,038
  -1,170
  -1,304
  -1,437
  -1,569
  -1,699
  -1,825
  -1,949
  -2,070
  -2,188
  -2,304
  -2,418
  -2,531
  -2,644
  -2,757
  -2,871
  -2,987
  -3,106
  -3,228
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  43
  53
  90
  144
  221
  326
  465
  644
  869
  1,145
  1,476
  1,866
  2,317
  2,832
  3,411
  4,055
  4,762
  5,533
  6,366
  7,260
  8,212
  9,222
  10,288
  11,410
  12,586
  13,816
  15,100
  16,438
  17,831
  19,279
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  41
  48
  78
  118
  171
  236
  314
  403
  499
  600
  701
  796
  881
  951
  1,001
  1,030
  1,036
  1,019
  980
  922
  849
  765
  674
  581
  490
  403
  324
  254
  195
  145
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Hexindai Inc. is a consumer lending company. The Company is focused on offering borrowers a range of products designed-based on customer segmentation data and tailored to the specific needs of the emerging middle class in China. The Company also offers five tailored loan products such as Provident Fund Loans, Property-Owner Loans, Car-Owner Loans, Insurance-Holder Loans, and Premier Customer Loans. The Company offers products and services to Borrowers, and Investors.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hexindai ADR (HX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32
Price to Sales 12.5
Price to Book 12
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 35.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 35.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 91.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 36%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.2%
Return On Total Capital 47.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
Return On Equity 47.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 43.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.6%
Operating Margin 43.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 43.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.6%
Net Profit Margin 39.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Effective Tax Rate 10%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

HX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $107.257841 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hexindai ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Hexindai ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hexindai ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hexindai ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 21.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $8 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Hexindai ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hexindai ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HX are equal to 0.6%.

Life of production assets of 3.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hexindai ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HX is equal to 3.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $140.043069 million for Hexindai ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.459 million for Hexindai ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hexindai ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Do You Know What Hexindai Incs (NASDAQ:HX) P/E Ratio Means?   [Nov-09-18 12:35PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Hexindai to Help Support Emissions Reduction   [Oct-16-18 07:32AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why Hexindai Inc (NASDAQ:HX) Could Be Your Next Investment   [Sep-07-18 03:54PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Hexindai Declares Cash Dividend   [Jul-23-18 06:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ How Hexindai Inc (NASDAQ:HX) Can Add Value To Your Portfolio   [Jun-15-18 09:17AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Why Hexindai Incs (NASDAQ:HX) Ownership Structure Is Important   [May-31-18 03:22PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Value-Adding Growth Stocks To Buy Now   [Apr-25-18 12:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Hexindai Attends LendIt Fintech USA 2018   [Apr-12-18 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Hexindai Opens Sales Call Center in Hefei   [Mar-13-18 09:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Should You Sell Hexindai Inc (NASDAQ:HX) At This PE Ratio?   [Feb-09-18 01:12PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Hexindai Attends 13th Beijing International Finance Expo   [Jan-29-18 05:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Hexindai Launches Nationwide Investor Education Seminar   [Jan-26-18 05:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Be On Guard For Year End Stock Selling   [Dec-27-17 12:59PM  TheStreet.com]

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