Intrinsic value of Horizon Pharma - HZNP

Previous Close

$22.29

  Intrinsic Value

$3.90

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-83%

Previous close

$22.29

 
Intrinsic value

$3.90

 
Up/down potential

-83%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HZNP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.76
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
Revenue, $m
  1,105
  1,156
  1,210
  1,267
  1,327
  1,390
  1,457
  1,527
  1,601
  1,678
  1,760
  1,846
  1,936
  2,031
  2,130
  2,235
  2,345
  2,461
  2,582
  2,710
  2,844
  2,985
  3,133
  3,289
  3,452
  3,624
  3,804
  3,994
  4,192
  4,401
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,250
  1,294
  1,341
  1,391
  1,443
  1,498
  1,556
  1,617
  1,681
  1,749
  1,532
  1,607
  1,686
  1,768
  1,855
  1,946
  2,042
  2,143
  2,249
  2,360
  2,477
  2,599
  2,728
  2,864
  3,006
  3,156
  3,312
  3,477
  3,650
  3,832
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,250
  1,294
  1,341
  1,391
  1,443
  1,498
  1,556
  1,617
  1,681
  1,749
  1,532
  1,607
  1,686
  1,768
  1,855
  1,946
  2,042
  2,143
  2,249
  2,360
  2,477
  2,599
  2,728
  2,864
  3,006
  3,156
  3,312
  3,477
  3,650
  3,832
Operating income, $m
  -145
  -138
  -131
  -124
  -116
  -108
  -99
  -90
  -81
  -71
  227
  239
  250
  263
  275
  289
  303
  318
  334
  350
  368
  386
  405
  425
  446
  468
  492
  516
  542
  569
EBITDA, $m
  293
  306
  320
  336
  351
  368
  386
  404
  424
  444
  466
  489
  513
  538
  564
  592
  621
  652
  684
  718
  753
  791
  830
  871
  914
  960
  1,007
  1,058
  1,110
  1,166
Interest expense (income), $m
  61
  129
  140
  150
  161
  173
  186
  199
  212
  227
  242
  258
  275
  293
  312
  331
  352
  373
  396
  420
  445
  472
  500
  529
  559
  592
  625
  661
  698
  737
  779
Earnings before tax, $m
  -274
  -278
  -281
  -285
  -289
  -293
  -298
  -303
  -308
  -313
  -31
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -63
  -70
  -78
  -86
  -95
  -104
  -114
  -124
  -134
  -145
  -157
  -169
  -182
  -195
  -210
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -274
  -278
  -281
  -285
  -289
  -293
  -298
  -303
  -308
  -313
  -31
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -63
  -70
  -78
  -86
  -95
  -104
  -114
  -124
  -134
  -145
  -157
  -169
  -182
  -195
  -210

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,402
  4,606
  4,821
  5,048
  5,287
  5,539
  5,805
  6,084
  6,377
  6,686
  7,011
  7,353
  7,712
  8,090
  8,487
  8,905
  9,343
  9,804
  10,289
  10,797
  11,332
  11,894
  12,484
  13,103
  13,754
  14,438
  15,156
  15,911
  16,703
  17,535
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,402
  4,606
  4,821
  5,048
  5,287
  5,539
  5,805
  6,084
  6,377
  6,686
  7,011
  7,353
  7,712
  8,090
  8,487
  8,905
  9,343
  9,804
  10,289
  10,797
  11,332
  11,894
  12,484
  13,103
  13,754
  14,438
  15,156
  15,911
  16,703
  17,535
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
Average production assets, $m
  1,617
  1,693
  1,772
  1,855
  1,943
  2,036
  2,133
  2,236
  2,343
  2,457
  2,576
  2,702
  2,834
  2,973
  3,119
  3,272
  3,433
  3,603
  3,781
  3,968
  4,164
  4,371
  4,587
  4,815
  5,054
  5,306
  5,569
  5,847
  6,138
  6,443
Working capital, $m
  -287
  -301
  -315
  -329
  -345
  -361
  -379
  -397
  -416
  -436
  -458
  -480
  -503
  -528
  -554
  -581
  -610
  -640
  -671
  -705
  -740
  -776
  -815
  -855
  -898
  -942
  -989
  -1,038
  -1,090
  -1,144
Total debt, $m
  2,052
  2,208
  2,372
  2,546
  2,728
  2,921
  3,123
  3,337
  3,561
  3,797
  4,045
  4,307
  4,581
  4,870
  5,173
  5,492
  5,827
  6,179
  6,549
  6,938
  7,347
  7,776
  8,226
  8,700
  9,197
  9,720
  10,268
  10,845
  11,450
  12,085
Total liabilities, $m
  3,363
  3,519
  3,683
  3,857
  4,040
  4,232
  4,435
  4,648
  4,872
  5,108
  5,357
  5,618
  5,892
  6,181
  6,484
  6,803
  7,138
  7,490
  7,860
  8,249
  8,658
  9,087
  9,538
  10,011
  10,508
  11,031
  11,580
  12,156
  12,761
  13,397
Total equity, $m
  1,039
  1,087
  1,138
  1,191
  1,248
  1,307
  1,370
  1,436
  1,505
  1,578
  1,655
  1,735
  1,820
  1,909
  2,003
  2,102
  2,205
  2,314
  2,428
  2,548
  2,674
  2,807
  2,946
  3,092
  3,246
  3,407
  3,577
  3,755
  3,942
  4,138
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,402
  4,606
  4,821
  5,048
  5,288
  5,539
  5,805
  6,084
  6,377
  6,686
  7,012
  7,353
  7,712
  8,090
  8,487
  8,905
  9,343
  9,804
  10,288
  10,797
  11,332
  11,894
  12,484
  13,103
  13,754
  14,438
  15,157
  15,911
  16,703
  17,535
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.980
  2.030
  2.080
  2.140
  2.190
  2.230
  2.280
  2.320
  2.370
  2.410
  2.440
  2.480
  2.520
  2.550
  2.580
  2.610
  2.640
  2.670
  2.700
  2.720
  2.750
  2.770
  2.790
  2.810
  2.830
  2.850
  2.870
  2.890
  2.900
  2.920
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -274
  -278
  -281
  -285
  -289
  -293
  -298
  -303
  -308
  -313
  -31
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -63
  -70
  -78
  -86
  -95
  -104
  -114
  -124
  -134
  -145
  -157
  -169
  -182
  -195
  -210
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  437
  444
  452
  459
  467
  476
  485
  495
  505
  515
  239
  250
  262
  275
  289
  303
  318
  334
  350
  367
  386
  405
  425
  446
  468
  491
  516
  541
  568
  597
Funds from operations, $m
  163
  167
  170
  174
  178
  183
  187
  192
  197
  202
  208
  214
  220
  226
  233
  240
  248
  255
  264
  272
  281
  291
  301
  312
  323
  334
  347
  359
  373
  387
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
Cash from operations, $m
  176
  180
  184
  189
  194
  199
  205
  210
  216
  222
  229
  236
  243
  251
  259
  267
  276
  286
  295
  306
  316
  328
  340
  352
  365
  379
  393
  409
  425
  441
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -227
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -303
  -318
  -334
  -350
  -367
  -386
  -405
  -425
  -446
  -468
  -491
  -516
  -541
  -568
New CAPEX, $m
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -264
  -277
  -291
  -306
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -215
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -260
  -273
  -285
  -300
  -315
  -331
  -346
  -365
  -382
  -401
  -421
  -442
  -464
  -487
  -512
  -537
  -563
  -592
  -622
  -653
  -685
  -719
  -755
  -793
  -832
  -874
Free cash flow, $m
  -39
  -45
  -51
  -58
  -66
  -73
  -81
  -90
  -99
  -108
  -118
  -128
  -139
  -150
  -162
  -175
  -188
  -202
  -216
  -231
  -247
  -264
  -282
  -300
  -320
  -340
  -362
  -384
  -408
  -433
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  150
  156
  165
  173
  183
  192
  203
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  275
  289
  303
  319
  335
  352
  370
  389
  408
  429
  451
  473
  497
  522
  549
  576
  605
  636
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  322
  326
  332
  339
  346
  353
  360
  368
  377
  386
  107
  117
  127
  138
  149
  161
  174
  187
  201
  215
  230
  246
  263
  280
  299
  318
  339
  360
  382
  406
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  472
  482
  497
  512
  529
  545
  563
  581
  601
  622
  355
  378
  402
  427
  452
  480
  509
  539
  571
  604
  638
  675
  714
  753
  796
  840
  888
  936
  987
  1,042
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  433
  437
  445
  454
  463
  472
  482
  492
  503
  514
  238
  250
  263
  276
  291
  305
  321
  337
  354
  372
  391
  411
  432
  454
  476
  500
  526
  552
  580
  609
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -322
  -326
  -332
  -339
  -346
  -353
  -360
  -368
  -377
  -386
  -107
  -117
  -127
  -138
  -149
  -161
  -174
  -187
  -201
  -215
  -230
  -246
  -263
  -280
  -299
  -318
  -339
  -360
  -382
  -406
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  111
  111
  113
  115
  117
  119
  121
  123
  126
  128
  130
  133
  136
  138
  141
  144
  147
  150
  154
  157
  161
  165
  169
  173
  177
  182
  187
  192
  197
  203
Discount rate, %
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.52
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  104
  97
  92
  86
  80
  74
  68
  61
  55
  49
  43
  38
  32
  27
  23
  19
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  92.0
  84.8
  78.3
  72.5
  67.3
  62.5
  58.2
  54.3
  50.7
  47.4
  46.5
  45.7
  44.8
  43.9
  43.0
  42.1
  41.2
  40.2
  39.3
  38.4
  37.5
  36.6
  35.7
  34.8
  33.9
  33.0
  32.2
  31.3
  30.5
  29.7

Horizon Pharma Public Limited Company is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is focused on identifying, developing, acquiring and commercializing differentiated and accessible medicines that address unmet medical needs. As of December 31, 2016, the Company marketed 11 medicines through its orphan, rheumatology and primary care business units. The Company's marketed medicines are ACTIMMUNE (interferon gamma-1b), BUPHENYL (sodium phenylbutyrate) Tablets and Powder, DUEXIS (ibuprofen/famotidine), KRYSTEXXA (pegloticase), MIGERGOT (ergotamine tartrate & caffeine suppositories), PENNSAID (diclofenac sodium topical solution) 2% weight per weight (w/w), or PENNSAID 2%, PROCYSBI (cysteamine bitartrate) delayed-release capsules, QUINSAIR (aerosolized form of levofloxacin), RAVICTI (glycerol phenylbutyrate) Oral Liquid, RAYOS (prednisone) delayed-release tablets and VIMOVO (naproxen/esomeprazole magnesium).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Horizon Pharma (HZNP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -21.6
Price to Sales 3.7
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 29.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 128.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -15%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 64
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 142.3%
Total Debt to Equity 143%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -3.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.9%
Return On Total Capital -6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.8%
Return On Equity -13%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -38.7%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.1%
EBITDA Margin 5.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21%
Operating Margin -15%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -23.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -43.9%
Net Profit Margin -17%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.5%
Effective Tax Rate 26.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 53%
Payout Ratio 0%

HZNP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HZNP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1056.231 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Horizon Pharma. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Horizon Pharma. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HZNP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.5%, whose default value for HZNP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Horizon Pharma, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Horizon Pharma.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HZNP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 114.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HZNP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.8% for Horizon Pharma.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Horizon Pharma. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HZNP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HZNP are equal to 146.4%.

Life of production assets of 10.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Horizon Pharma operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HZNP is equal to -26%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $991.098 million for Horizon Pharma - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 165.041 million for Horizon Pharma is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Horizon Pharma at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.7 billion.

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