Intrinsic value of MarineMax - HZO

Previous Close

$17.00

  Intrinsic Value

$4.32

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-75%

  Value-price divergence*

+66%

Previous close

$17.00

 
Intrinsic value

$4.32

 
Up/down potential

-75%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+66%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HZO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.43
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  942
  961
  983
  1,008
  1,037
  1,068
  1,102
  1,140
  1,181
  1,224
  1,271
  1,322
  1,375
  1,432
  1,493
  1,558
  1,626
  1,698
  1,774
  1,855
  1,940
  2,030
  2,125
  2,225
  2,331
  2,442
  2,558
  2,681
  2,811
  2,947
  3,090
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  885
  905
  929
  955
  984
  1,015
  1,050
  1,087
  1,128
  1,171
  1,217
  1,267
  1,319
  1,375
  1,435
  1,497
  1,564
  1,634
  1,709
  1,787
  1,870
  1,957
  2,049
  2,146
  2,249
  2,356
  2,470
  2,589
  2,714
  2,846
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  73
Total operating expenses, $m
  902
  921
  942
  967
  994
  1,024
  1,056
  1,092
  1,130
  1,172
  1,216
  1,263
  1,314
  1,367
  1,424
  1,486
  1,549
  1,617
  1,689
  1,765
  1,844
  1,929
  2,017
  2,111
  2,209
  2,314
  2,423
  2,538
  2,659
  2,786
  2,919
Operating income, $m
  40
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  171
EBITDA, $m
  48
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  101
  106
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  157
  166
  176
  186
  197
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Earnings before tax, $m
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  112
  118
  126
  133
  141
  149
Tax expense, $m
  12
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
Net income, $m
  23
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  68
  73
  77
  82
  86
  92
  97
  103
  109

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  547
  518
  530
  544
  559
  576
  595
  615
  637
  660
  686
  713
  742
  773
  805
  840
  877
  916
  957
  1,001
  1,047
  1,095
  1,146
  1,200
  1,257
  1,317
  1,380
  1,446
  1,516
  1,589
  1,667
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  508
  518
  530
  544
  559
  576
  595
  615
  637
  660
  686
  713
  742
  773
  805
  840
  877
  916
  957
  1,001
  1,047
  1,095
  1,146
  1,200
  1,257
  1,317
  1,380
  1,446
  1,516
  1,589
  1,667
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.854
  1.855
  1.855
  1.853
  1.855
  1.854
  1.852
  1.854
  1.854
  1.855
  1.853
  1.854
  1.853
  1.853
  1.855
  1.855
  1.854
  1.854
  1.854
  1.853
  1.853
  1.854
  1.854
  1.854
  1.854
  1.854
  1.854
  1.854
  1.854
  1.855
  1.854
Average production assets, $m
  110
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  175
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
  238
  249
  260
  273
  286
  299
  314
  329
  345
  362
Working capital, $m
  159
  293
  300
  308
  316
  326
  336
  348
  360
  373
  388
  403
  419
  437
  455
  475
  496
  518
  541
  566
  592
  619
  648
  679
  711
  745
  780
  818
  857
  899
  942
Total debt, $m
  167
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  162
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270
  286
  301
  318
  336
  355
  374
  395
  417
  440
  465
  490
  517
  546
  575
Total liabilities, $m
  234
  200
  205
  210
  216
  222
  230
  237
  246
  255
  265
  275
  286
  298
  311
  324
  338
  354
  369
  386
  404
  423
  442
  463
  485
  508
  533
  558
  585
  614
  643
Total equity, $m
  312
  318
  326
  334
  343
  354
  365
  378
  391
  406
  421
  438
  455
  474
  494
  516
  538
  562
  588
  614
  643
  672
  704
  737
  772
  809
  847
  888
  931
  976
  1,023
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  546
  518
  531
  544
  559
  576
  595
  615
  637
  661
  686
  713
  741
  772
  805
  840
  876
  916
  957
  1,000
  1,047
  1,095
  1,146
  1,200
  1,257
  1,317
  1,380
  1,446
  1,516
  1,590
  1,666
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.535
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  23
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  68
  73
  77
  82
  86
  92
  97
  103
  109
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Funds from operations, $m
  -1
  34
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
Change in working capital, $m
  -24
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  39
  42
  44
Cash from operations, $m
  23
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  68
  73
  77
  81
  86
  92
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -30
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
Free cash flow, $m
  -7
  18
  17
  16
  16
  15
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  16
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  13
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  6
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -28
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  15
  14
  13
  12
  12
  11
  11
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
Discount rate, %
 
  5.40
  5.67
  5.95
  6.25
  6.56
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.04
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.16
  21.17
  22.23
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  15
  13
  11
  10
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

MarineMax, Inc. is a recreational boat and yacht dealer in the United States. Through 56 retail locations in Alabama, California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, and Texas, the Company sold new and used recreational boats, including pleasure and fishing boats, as of September 30, 2016. The Company also sells related marine products, including engines, trailers, parts and accessories. In addition, it provides repair, maintenance, and slip and storage services; arranges related boat financing, insurance, and extended service contracts; offers boat and yacht brokerage sales, and operates a yacht charter business. The Company primarily sells recreational boats, including pleasure boats and fishing boats. The Company offers marine engines and equipment and sells marine engines and propellers primarily to retail customers as replacements for their existing engines or propellers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MarineMax (HZO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18
Price to Free Cash Flow 41.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 25.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 30%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 53.5%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Total Capital 5.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Equity 7.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.8%
EBITDA Margin 5.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Operating Margin 4.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Net Profit Margin 2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Effective Tax Rate 34.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

HZO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HZO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $942 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MarineMax. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of MarineMax. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HZO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.4%, whose default value for HZO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MarineMax, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MarineMax.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HZO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $35 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HZO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.9% for MarineMax.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MarineMax. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HZO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HZO are equal to 11.7%.

Life of production assets of 13.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MarineMax operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HZO is equal to 30.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $312 million for MarineMax - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.506 million for MarineMax is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MarineMax at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ MarineMax names new president   [Oct-02-17 12:58PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ MarineMax Promotes Executive   [08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ MarineMax Provides Update Related to Hurricane Irma   [Sep-12-17 04:55PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MarineMax, Inc. : August 8, 2017   [Aug-08-17 04:38PM  Capital Cube]
▶ MarineMax Announces Stock Repurchase Program   [Aug-02-17 05:03PM  Business Wire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for July 24th   [Jul-24-17 09:49AM  Zacks]
▶ MarineMax misses Street 3Q forecasts   [12:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ MarineMax to Webcast Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Jul-13-17 05:02PM  Business Wire]
▶ MarineMax, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:HZO) : June 30, 2017   [Jun-30-17 03:56PM  Capital Cube]
▶ MarineMax Expands Financing Capacity   [May-11-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MarineMax, Inc. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 04:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ MarineMax misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Apr-27-17 08:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ MarineMax to Webcast Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Apr-20-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Rising Revenue Tide is Lifting Marine Retailers   [Feb-27-17 04:21PM  Investopedia]
▶ UMs Florida stock index bests S&P 500   [Feb-24-17 08:00AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ UMs Florida stock index bests S&P 500   [08:00AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ MarineMax to Webcast First Quarter 2017 Results   [Jan-17-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ MarineMax buys boat dealer with $50 million in sales   [Jan-12-17 02:00PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ MarineMax Expands In The Southeast   [07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ MarineMax Inc (HZO): Hedge Fund Ownership Surges 58% in Q3   [Nov-28-16 06:07PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Las Olas Marina could receive $25M redevelopment, add 330 jobs   [Oct-15-16 11:09PM  at bizjournals.com]
Financial statements of HZO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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