Intrinsic value of Integra LifeSciences Holdings - IART

Previous Close

$51.50

  Intrinsic Value

$19.89

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-61%

Previous close

$51.50

 
Intrinsic value

$19.89

 
Up/down potential

-61%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IART stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.34
  13.30
  12.47
  11.72
  11.05
  10.45
  9.90
  9.41
  8.97
  8.57
  8.22
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
Revenue, $m
  992
  1,124
  1,264
  1,412
  1,568
  1,732
  1,904
  2,083
  2,270
  2,464
  2,667
  2,877
  3,096
  3,323
  3,560
  3,805
  4,061
  4,326
  4,602
  4,890
  5,189
  5,501
  5,826
  6,165
  6,518
  6,887
  7,273
  7,675
  8,096
  8,536
  8,996
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  849
  948
  1,053
  1,164
  1,280
  1,402
  1,529
  1,661
  1,799
  1,943
  2,041
  2,197
  2,358
  2,526
  2,700
  2,881
  3,069
  3,265
  3,469
  3,681
  3,903
  4,133
  4,374
  4,625
  4,886
  5,160
  5,446
  5,744
  6,056
  6,383
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  136
  140
  143
  147
  150
  154
  158
  162
  166
  170
  175
  179
  183
  188
  193
  197
  202
  207
  213
  218
  223
  229
  235
  241
  247
  253
  259
  266
  272
  279
Total operating expenses, $m
  885
  985
  1,088
  1,196
  1,311
  1,430
  1,556
  1,687
  1,823
  1,965
  2,113
  2,216
  2,376
  2,541
  2,714
  2,893
  3,078
  3,271
  3,472
  3,682
  3,899
  4,126
  4,362
  4,609
  4,866
  5,133
  5,413
  5,705
  6,010
  6,328
  6,662
Operating income, $m
  107
  139
  176
  216
  258
  302
  348
  396
  446
  499
  553
  661
  721
  782
  846
  913
  982
  1,054
  1,130
  1,208
  1,290
  1,375
  1,463
  1,556
  1,653
  1,754
  1,860
  1,971
  2,086
  2,208
  2,335
EBITDA, $m
  180
  238
  281
  327
  375
  426
  479
  535
  593
  654
  717
  783
  852
  923
  997
  1,074
  1,154
  1,238
  1,325
  1,415
  1,509
  1,608
  1,710
  1,817
  1,929
  2,046
  2,168
  2,296
  2,429
  2,569
  2,716
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  23
  28
  33
  38
  43
  49
  54
  61
  67
  74
  80
  88
  95
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  147
  156
  167
  177
  188
  200
  212
  225
  238
  252
  266
  281
Earnings before tax, $m
  90
  116
  149
  183
  220
  259
  299
  341
  386
  432
  480
  581
  633
  687
  743
  802
  863
  926
  992
  1,061
  1,133
  1,208
  1,286
  1,368
  1,453
  1,542
  1,635
  1,733
  1,835
  1,942
  2,054
Tax expense, $m
  15
  31
  40
  50
  59
  70
  81
  92
  104
  117
  130
  157
  171
  185
  201
  217
  233
  250
  268
  287
  306
  326
  347
  369
  392
  416
  442
  468
  495
  524
  554
Net income, $m
  75
  85
  108
  134
  161
  189
  218
  249
  282
  315
  350
  424
  462
  502
  543
  585
  630
  676
  724
  775
  827
  882
  939
  999
  1,061
  1,126
  1,194
  1,265
  1,339
  1,417
  1,499

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  102
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,808
  1,934
  2,176
  2,431
  2,699
  2,981
  3,277
  3,585
  3,906
  4,241
  4,590
  4,952
  5,329
  5,720
  6,127
  6,549
  6,989
  7,446
  7,921
  8,416
  8,931
  9,468
  10,027
  10,610
  11,219
  11,854
  12,517
  13,210
  13,935
  14,692
  15,484
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,706
  1,934
  2,176
  2,431
  2,699
  2,981
  3,277
  3,585
  3,906
  4,241
  4,590
  4,952
  5,329
  5,720
  6,127
  6,549
  6,989
  7,446
  7,921
  8,416
  8,931
  9,468
  10,027
  10,610
  11,219
  11,854
  12,517
  13,210
  13,935
  14,692
  15,484
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
Average production assets, $m
  694
  786
  884
  987
  1,096
  1,211
  1,331
  1,456
  1,586
  1,722
  1,864
  2,011
  2,164
  2,323
  2,488
  2,660
  2,838
  3,024
  3,217
  3,418
  3,627
  3,845
  4,072
  4,309
  4,556
  4,814
  5,084
  5,365
  5,659
  5,967
  6,288
Working capital, $m
  371
  305
  343
  383
  425
  469
  516
  564
  615
  668
  723
  780
  839
  901
  965
  1,031
  1,100
  1,172
  1,247
  1,325
  1,406
  1,491
  1,579
  1,671
  1,766
  1,866
  1,971
  2,080
  2,194
  2,313
  2,438
Total debt, $m
  665
  794
  931
  1,075
  1,228
  1,387
  1,555
  1,730
  1,912
  2,102
  2,299
  2,505
  2,718
  2,940
  3,171
  3,411
  3,660
  3,919
  4,188
  4,469
  4,761
  5,065
  5,382
  5,713
  6,058
  6,418
  6,794
  7,187
  7,598
  8,027
  8,476
Total liabilities, $m
  968
  1,097
  1,234
  1,378
  1,531
  1,690
  1,858
  2,033
  2,215
  2,405
  2,602
  2,808
  3,021
  3,243
  3,474
  3,714
  3,963
  4,222
  4,491
  4,772
  5,064
  5,368
  5,685
  6,016
  6,361
  6,721
  7,097
  7,490
  7,901
  8,330
  8,779
Total equity, $m
  840
  838
  942
  1,053
  1,169
  1,291
  1,419
  1,552
  1,691
  1,837
  1,987
  2,144
  2,307
  2,477
  2,653
  2,836
  3,026
  3,224
  3,430
  3,644
  3,867
  4,099
  4,342
  4,594
  4,858
  5,133
  5,420
  5,720
  6,034
  6,362
  6,705
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,808
  1,935
  2,176
  2,431
  2,700
  2,981
  3,277
  3,585
  3,906
  4,242
  4,589
  4,952
  5,328
  5,720
  6,127
  6,550
  6,989
  7,446
  7,921
  8,416
  8,931
  9,467
  10,027
  10,610
  11,219
  11,854
  12,517
  13,210
  13,935
  14,692
  15,484
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.792
  0.950
  0.990
  1.020
  1.050
  1.070
  1.100
  1.110
  1.130
  1.140
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  75
  85
  108
  134
  161
  189
  218
  249
  282
  315
  350
  424
  462
  502
  543
  585
  630
  676
  724
  775
  827
  882
  939
  999
  1,061
  1,126
  1,194
  1,265
  1,339
  1,417
  1,499
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  73
  99
  105
  111
  118
  124
  132
  139
  147
  155
  164
  122
  131
  141
  151
  161
  172
  183
  195
  207
  220
  233
  247
  261
  276
  292
  308
  325
  343
  362
  381
Funds from operations, $m
  105
  183
  213
  245
  278
  313
  350
  389
  429
  471
  514
  546
  593
  642
  693
  747
  802
  859
  919
  982
  1,047
  1,115
  1,186
  1,260
  1,337
  1,418
  1,502
  1,590
  1,682
  1,779
  1,880
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
Cash from operations, $m
  116
  148
  175
  205
  236
  269
  304
  340
  378
  418
  459
  489
  534
  581
  629
  680
  733
  788
  845
  904
  966
  1,030
  1,098
  1,168
  1,241
  1,318
  1,398
  1,481
  1,568
  1,660
  1,756
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -42
  -48
  -54
  -60
  -66
  -73
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -104
  -113
  -122
  -131
  -141
  -151
  -161
  -172
  -183
  -195
  -207
  -220
  -233
  -247
  -261
  -276
  -292
  -308
  -325
  -343
  -362
New CAPEX, $m
  -47
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -165
  -172
  -178
  -186
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -218
  -227
  -237
  -247
  -258
  -269
  -281
  -294
  -308
  -322
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -43
  -134
  -146
  -158
  -169
  -181
  -193
  -206
  -219
  -232
  -246
  -260
  -275
  -290
  -306
  -323
  -339
  -358
  -376
  -396
  -416
  -438
  -460
  -484
  -508
  -534
  -561
  -589
  -619
  -651
  -684
Free cash flow, $m
  73
  13
  30
  48
  67
  88
  110
  134
  159
  186
  214
  229
  259
  291
  323
  358
  393
  430
  468
  508
  550
  593
  637
  684
  733
  783
  836
  892
  949
  1,009
  1,072
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -16
  129
  137
  145
  152
  160
  167
  175
  182
  190
  198
  205
  214
  222
  231
  240
  249
  259
  270
  281
  292
  304
  317
  331
  345
  360
  376
  393
  411
  429
  449
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  10
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -15
  144
  137
  145
  152
  160
  167
  175
  182
  190
  198
  205
  214
  222
  231
  240
  249
  259
  270
  281
  292
  304
  317
  331
  345
  360
  376
  393
  411
  429
  449
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  54
  157
  166
  192
  219
  248
  278
  309
  342
  376
  411
  434
  473
  512
  554
  597
  642
  689
  738
  789
  842
  897
  955
  1,015
  1,078
  1,144
  1,212
  1,284
  1,360
  1,439
  1,521
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -89
  -100
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -242
  -253
  -264
  -275
  -287
  -300
  -314
  -328
  -343
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  102
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  160
  62
  82
  103
  126
  150
  176
  202
  231
  260
  277
  310
  343
  378
  414
  452
  491
  532
  574
  619
  665
  712
  762
  814
  869
  925
  984
  1,046
  1,111
  1,178
Discount rate, %
 
  6.80
  7.14
  7.50
  7.87
  8.27
  8.68
  9.11
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.14
  14.84
  15.59
  16.37
  17.18
  18.04
  18.94
  19.89
  20.89
  21.93
  23.03
  24.18
  25.39
  26.66
  27.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  149
  54
  66
  76
  85
  91
  95
  97
  97
  95
  87
  83
  77
  70
  62
  54
  47
  39
  32
  26
  20
  16
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6

Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corporation is a medical technology company. The Company focuses on the development, manufacturing, and marketing of surgical implants and medical instruments. Its segments include Specialty Surgical Solutions, which offers specialty surgical instrumentation for a range of specialties, including product portfolio used in the neurosurgery operating suite and critical care unit, and Orthopedics and Tissue Technologies, which includes differentiated soft tissue repair and tissue regeneration products, and small bone fixation and joint replacement solutions. It sells products and solutions for dural repair, precision tools and instruments, tissue ablation and neuro critical care. It also sells regenerative technology products for treating acute wounds, such as burns, and chronic wounds, including diabetic foot ulcers and surgical tissue repair. Its products are used in neurosurgery, extremity reconstruction, orthopedics and general surgery.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Integra LifeSciences Holdings (IART)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 51.3
Price to Sales 3.9
Price to Book 4.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 33.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 55.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 42.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 79.2%
Total Debt to Equity 79.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Total Capital 5.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Equity 9.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.3%
EBITDA Margin 16.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Operating Margin 10.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Net Profit Margin 7.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Effective Tax Rate 16.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

IART stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IART stock intrinsic value calculation we used $992 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Integra LifeSciences Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Integra LifeSciences Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IART stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.8%, whose default value for IART is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Integra LifeSciences Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Integra LifeSciences Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IART stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $133 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IART stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Integra LifeSciences Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Integra LifeSciences Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IART stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IART are equal to 69.9%.

Life of production assets of 16.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Integra LifeSciences Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IART is equal to 27.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $840 million for Integra LifeSciences Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 78.013 million for Integra LifeSciences Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Integra LifeSciences Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ J&J Completed the Divestiture of Its Neurosurgery Business   [Oct-17-17 07:37AM  Market Realist]
▶ Oppenheimer Presents New Menu Of Top Picks   [Sep-01-17 11:59AM  Benzinga]
▶ Integra meets 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-26-17 09:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Integra misses 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-26-17 06:08AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of IART
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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