Intrinsic value of Installed Building Products - IBP

Previous Close

$65.70

  Intrinsic Value

$99.84

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+52%

Previous close

$65.70

 
Intrinsic value

$99.84

 
Up/down potential

+52%

 
Rating

str. buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IBP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Installed Building Products (IBP) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  30.17
  31.10
  28.49
  26.14
  24.03
  22.12
  20.41
  18.87
  17.48
  16.24
  15.11
  14.10
  13.19
  12.37
  11.63
  10.97
  10.37
  9.84
  9.35
  8.92
  8.53
  8.17
  7.86
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
Revenue, $m
  863
  1,131
  1,454
  1,834
  2,274
  2,778
  3,344
  3,976
  4,671
  5,429
  6,249
  7,131
  8,071
  9,070
  10,125
  11,236
  12,401
  13,621
  14,895
  16,223
  17,606
  19,045
  20,541
  22,096
  23,712
  25,392
  27,137
  28,951
  30,838
  32,802
  34,845
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,009
  1,294
  1,629
  2,018
  2,462
  2,963
  3,520
  4,133
  4,802
  5,526
  6,293
  7,124
  8,005
  8,936
  9,917
  10,945
  12,022
  13,146
  14,319
  15,539
  16,809
  18,130
  19,502
  20,929
  22,411
  23,951
  25,553
  27,218
  28,951
  30,754
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
Total operating expenses, $m
  797
  1,036
  1,321
  1,657
  2,047
  2,491
  2,993
  3,551
  4,165
  4,834
  5,559
  6,327
  7,159
  8,041
  8,973
  9,955
  10,984
  12,062
  13,187
  14,361
  15,582
  16,853
  18,175
  19,548
  20,976
  22,459
  24,000
  25,604
  27,270
  29,004
  30,809
Operating income, $m
  66
  95
  133
  177
  228
  286
  352
  425
  506
  594
  690
  803
  913
  1,029
  1,152
  1,281
  1,417
  1,560
  1,708
  1,863
  2,024
  2,192
  2,367
  2,548
  2,737
  2,933
  3,136
  3,348
  3,568
  3,798
  4,036
EBITDA, $m
  101
  130
  174
  226
  287
  356
  434
  521
  616
  721
  834
  955
  1,085
  1,222
  1,368
  1,521
  1,682
  1,850
  2,026
  2,209
  2,400
  2,599
  2,805
  3,020
  3,243
  3,474
  3,715
  3,966
  4,226
  4,497
  4,780
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  5
  9
  12
  17
  22
  28
  35
  42
  51
  60
  70
  80
  91
  103
  116
  129
  143
  157
  173
  188
  205
  222
  240
  258
  278
  298
  319
  340
  363
  386
Earnings before tax, $m
  60
  90
  124
  164
  211
  264
  324
  390
  463
  543
  630
  733
  832
  938
  1,049
  1,166
  1,288
  1,417
  1,551
  1,690
  1,836
  1,987
  2,145
  2,308
  2,478
  2,655
  2,839
  3,030
  3,228
  3,435
  3,650
Tax expense, $m
  22
  24
  34
  44
  57
  71
  87
  105
  125
  147
  170
  198
  225
  253
  283
  315
  348
  382
  419
  456
  496
  537
  579
  623
  669
  717
  766
  818
  872
  927
  986
Net income, $m
  38
  66
  91
  120
  154
  193
  236
  285
  338
  397
  460
  535
  608
  684
  766
  851
  940
  1,034
  1,132
  1,234
  1,340
  1,451
  1,566
  1,685
  1,809
  1,938
  2,072
  2,212
  2,357
  2,508
  2,665

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  462
  587
  755
  952
  1,181
  1,442
  1,736
  2,064
  2,425
  2,819
  3,245
  3,702
  4,191
  4,709
  5,257
  5,834
  6,439
  7,072
  7,734
  8,423
  9,141
  9,888
  10,665
  11,473
  12,312
  13,184
  14,090
  15,032
  16,012
  17,031
  18,092
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  448
  587
  755
  952
  1,181
  1,442
  1,736
  2,064
  2,425
  2,819
  3,245
  3,702
  4,191
  4,709
  5,257
  5,834
  6,439
  7,072
  7,734
  8,423
  9,141
  9,888
  10,665
  11,473
  12,312
  13,184
  14,090
  15,032
  16,012
  17,031
  18,092
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.926
  1.927
  1.926
  1.926
  1.925
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
Average production assets, $m
  111
  145
  186
  235
  291
  356
  428
  509
  598
  695
  800
  913
  1,033
  1,161
  1,296
  1,438
  1,587
  1,743
  1,907
  2,077
  2,254
  2,438
  2,629
  2,828
  3,035
  3,250
  3,474
  3,706
  3,947
  4,199
  4,460
Working capital, $m
  62
  94
  121
  152
  189
  231
  278
  330
  388
  451
  519
  592
  670
  753
  840
  933
  1,029
  1,131
  1,236
  1,347
  1,461
  1,581
  1,705
  1,834
  1,968
  2,108
  2,252
  2,403
  2,560
  2,723
  2,892
Total debt, $m
  167
  244
  354
  484
  634
  805
  998
  1,213
  1,450
  1,708
  1,988
  2,288
  2,608
  2,948
  3,308
  3,686
  4,083
  4,498
  4,932
  5,385
  5,856
  6,346
  6,855
  7,385
  7,935
  8,507
  9,102
  9,720
  10,363
  11,031
  11,727
Total liabilities, $m
  308
  385
  495
  625
  775
  946
  1,139
  1,354
  1,591
  1,849
  2,129
  2,429
  2,749
  3,089
  3,449
  3,827
  4,224
  4,639
  5,073
  5,526
  5,997
  6,487
  6,996
  7,526
  8,076
  8,648
  9,243
  9,861
  10,504
  11,172
  11,868
Total equity, $m
  154
  202
  260
  328
  406
  496
  597
  710
  834
  970
  1,116
  1,274
  1,442
  1,620
  1,808
  2,007
  2,215
  2,433
  2,660
  2,898
  3,145
  3,402
  3,669
  3,947
  4,235
  4,535
  4,847
  5,171
  5,508
  5,859
  6,224
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  462
  587
  755
  953
  1,181
  1,442
  1,736
  2,064
  2,425
  2,819
  3,245
  3,703
  4,191
  4,709
  5,257
  5,834
  6,439
  7,072
  7,733
  8,424
  9,142
  9,889
  10,665
  11,473
  12,311
  13,183
  14,090
  15,032
  16,012
  17,031
  18,092
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.084
  1.210
  1.360
  1.480
  1.560
  1.620
  1.670
  1.710
  1.740
  1.760
  1.780
  1.800
  1.810
  1.820
  1.830
  1.840
  1.840
  1.850
  1.850
  1.860
  1.860
  1.870
  1.870
  1.870
  1.870
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.313
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  38
  66
  91
  120
  154
  193
  236
  285
  338
  397
  460
  535
  608
  684
  766
  851
  940
  1,034
  1,132
  1,234
  1,340
  1,451
  1,566
  1,685
  1,809
  1,938
  2,072
  2,212
  2,357
  2,508
  2,665
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  35
  35
  42
  50
  59
  70
  82
  96
  110
  127
  144
  152
  172
  193
  216
  240
  265
  291
  318
  346
  376
  406
  438
  471
  506
  542
  579
  618
  658
  700
  743
Funds from operations, $m
  68
  101
  132
  170
  213
  263
  318
  380
  449
  523
  604
  688
  780
  878
  982
  1,091
  1,205
  1,325
  1,450
  1,580
  1,716
  1,857
  2,004
  2,156
  2,315
  2,480
  2,651
  2,829
  3,015
  3,207
  3,408
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  22
  27
  32
  37
  42
  47
  52
  58
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
Cash from operations, $m
  73
  78
  106
  138
  176
  221
  271
  328
  391
  460
  536
  614
  702
  795
  894
  998
  1,108
  1,223
  1,344
  1,470
  1,601
  1,738
  1,880
  2,027
  2,181
  2,340
  2,506
  2,679
  2,858
  3,044
  3,238
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -18
  -24
  -31
  -39
  -49
  -59
  -71
  -85
  -100
  -116
  -133
  -152
  -172
  -193
  -216
  -240
  -265
  -291
  -318
  -346
  -376
  -406
  -438
  -471
  -506
  -542
  -579
  -618
  -658
  -700
New CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -34
  -41
  -49
  -56
  -64
  -73
  -81
  -89
  -97
  -105
  -113
  -120
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -192
  -199
  -207
  -215
  -223
  -232
  -242
  -251
  -262
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -80
  -52
  -65
  -80
  -95
  -113
  -132
  -152
  -174
  -197
  -221
  -246
  -272
  -300
  -328
  -358
  -389
  -421
  -454
  -488
  -523
  -560
  -598
  -637
  -678
  -721
  -765
  -811
  -860
  -909
  -962
Free cash flow, $m
  -7
  26
  40
  58
  81
  108
  139
  176
  217
  264
  315
  368
  429
  495
  565
  640
  719
  803
  890
  982
  1,078
  1,178
  1,282
  1,390
  1,503
  1,620
  1,741
  1,867
  1,999
  2,135
  2,277
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  19
  91
  110
  129
  150
  171
  193
  215
  237
  258
  279
  300
  320
  340
  359
  378
  397
  415
  434
  452
  471
  490
  510
  530
  550
  572
  594
  618
  643
  669
  696
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  14
  91
  110
  129
  150
  171
  193
  215
  237
  258
  279
  300
  320
  340
  359
  378
  397
  415
  434
  452
  471
  490
  510
  530
  550
  572
  594
  618
  643
  669
  696
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  117
  150
  188
  231
  279
  333
  391
  454
  522
  594
  668
  750
  835
  925
  1,019
  1,116
  1,218
  1,324
  1,434
  1,549
  1,668
  1,791
  1,920
  2,053
  2,192
  2,336
  2,486
  2,641
  2,804
  2,973
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -40
  -48
  -58
  -68
  -79
  -90
  -101
  -113
  -124
  -135
  -147
  -157
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -228
  -237
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -278
  -289
  -300
  -312
  -324
  -337
  -351
  -365
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  69
  92
  120
  152
  189
  231
  278
  330
  386
  448
  511
  582
  657
  736
  820
  908
  1,000
  1,097
  1,197
  1,302
  1,411
  1,524
  1,642
  1,764
  1,892
  2,024
  2,161
  2,304
  2,453
  2,608
Discount rate, %
 
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  65
  82
  100
  118
  135
  152
  166
  178
  187
  192
  192
  190
  185
  176
  165
  151
  136
  120
  104
  88
  73
  60
  47
  37
  28
  21
  15
  10
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Installed Building Products, Inc. is a holding company. The Company is a residential insulation installer in the United States. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's national platform included over 100 locations accessing customers in 48 continental states and the District of Columbia. The Company also installs complementary building products, including garage doors, rain gutters, shower doors, closet shelving and mirrors, which provides cross-selling opportunities to supplement the insulation installation business. The Company manages various aspects of the installation process for the customers, from the direct purchase and receipt of materials from national manufacturers, to supply of materials to job sites and quality installation. The Company's customers include production and custom homebuilders, multi-family and commercial contractors, and homeowners.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Installed Building Products (IBP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 54.4
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 13.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 28.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 45
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 30.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 55.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 92.9%
Total Debt to Equity 108.4%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Return On Total Capital 13.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Return On Equity 28.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.2%
EBITDA Margin 11.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Operating Margin 7.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Net Profit Margin 4.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Effective Tax Rate 36.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

IBP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IBP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $863 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Installed Building Products. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Installed Building Products. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IBP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 31.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for IBP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Installed Building Products, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Installed Building Products.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IBP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $26 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IBP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Installed Building Products.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Installed Building Products. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IBP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IBP are equal to 12.8%.

Life of production assets of 6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Installed Building Products operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IBP is equal to 8.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $154 million for Installed Building Products - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.995 million for Installed Building Products is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Installed Building Products at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
BLD TopBuild 72.76 134.65  str.buy
APOG Apogee Enterpr 44.40 86.47  str.buy
PHM PulteGroup 29.19 42.95  buy
LEN Lennar Cl A 58.43 102.56  str.buy
DHI D.R. Horton 44.26 62.39  buy
CAA CalAtlantic Gr 53.12 39.43  sell
NVR NVR 3,093.68 3,035.12  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Installed Building Products finishes strong year with two acquisitions   [Jan-02-18 01:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Installed Building Products Sees Its Composite Rating Rise To 96   [Dec-15-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Installed Building Products CEO sells $14.9M in stock   [Dec-14-17 07:05AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ NYSE Top Growth Stocks Installed Building Products And More   [Dec-07-17 11:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Installed Building Products Announces Successful Repricing   [Dec-01-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ 5 Small Growth Stocks With Big Upside: Wasatch   [Nov-08-17 08:00AM  Investopedia]
▶ Installed Building Products posts 1Q profit   [May-05-17 07:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Installed Building Products posts 4Q profit   [07:17AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of IBP
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