Intrinsic value of Installed Building Products - IBP

Previous Close

$65.80

  Intrinsic Value

$111.86

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+70%

  Value-price divergence*

+41%

Previous close

$65.80

 
Intrinsic value

$111.86

 
Up/down potential

+70%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+41%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IBP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  30.17
  33.00
  30.20
  27.68
  25.41
  23.37
  21.53
  19.88
  18.39
  17.05
  15.85
  14.76
  13.79
  12.91
  12.12
  11.41
  10.76
  10.19
  9.67
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
Revenue, $m
  863
  1,148
  1,494
  1,908
  2,393
  2,952
  3,588
  4,301
  5,092
  5,961
  6,905
  7,925
  9,017
  10,181
  11,415
  12,717
  14,086
  15,521
  17,022
  18,588
  20,221
  21,920
  23,688
  25,525
  27,435
  29,420
  31,482
  33,626
  35,854
  38,173
  40,585
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,024
  1,330
  1,695
  2,123
  2,616
  3,177
  3,807
  4,505
  5,272
  6,105
  6,994
  7,959
  8,986
  10,075
  11,224
  12,432
  13,699
  15,024
  16,406
  17,847
  19,347
  20,907
  22,529
  24,214
  25,966
  27,786
  29,678
  31,645
  33,691
  35,820
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
Total operating expenses, $m
  797
  1,051
  1,357
  1,723
  2,152
  2,645
  3,207
  3,838
  4,537
  5,304
  6,138
  7,028
  7,994
  9,022
  10,112
  11,262
  12,471
  13,739
  15,065
  16,448
  17,890
  19,391
  20,952
  22,575
  24,261
  26,014
  27,835
  29,729
  31,697
  33,744
  35,875
Operating income, $m
  66
  97
  137
  185
  242
  306
  380
  463
  555
  657
  767
  896
  1,024
  1,159
  1,303
  1,455
  1,615
  1,783
  1,958
  2,141
  2,331
  2,530
  2,736
  2,951
  3,174
  3,406
  3,647
  3,897
  4,157
  4,428
  4,710
EBITDA, $m
  101
  133
  180
  237
  303
  380
  468
  566
  675
  794
  925
  1,065
  1,216
  1,377
  1,547
  1,727
  1,916
  2,114
  2,321
  2,537
  2,763
  2,997
  3,242
  3,495
  3,759
  4,033
  4,318
  4,614
  4,922
  5,243
  5,576
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  5
  9
  13
  18
  24
  30
  38
  46
  56
  66
  77
  90
  103
  116
  131
  147
  163
  180
  198
  217
  236
  256
  277
  299
  322
  346
  370
  396
  422
  450
Earnings before tax, $m
  60
  92
  129
  172
  224
  283
  350
  426
  509
  601
  701
  819
  934
  1,057
  1,187
  1,324
  1,468
  1,620
  1,778
  1,943
  2,115
  2,294
  2,480
  2,673
  2,874
  3,084
  3,301
  3,527
  3,761
  4,006
  4,260
Tax expense, $m
  22
  25
  35
  47
  60
  76
  95
  115
  137
  162
  189
  221
  252
  285
  320
  358
  396
  437
  480
  525
  571
  619
  670
  722
  776
  833
  891
  952
  1,016
  1,082
  1,150
Net income, $m
  38
  67
  94
  126
  163
  207
  256
  311
  372
  439
  511
  598
  682
  772
  866
  967
  1,072
  1,182
  1,298
  1,418
  1,544
  1,674
  1,810
  1,952
  2,098
  2,251
  2,410
  2,574
  2,746
  2,924
  3,110

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  462
  596
  776
  991
  1,242
  1,533
  1,863
  2,233
  2,644
  3,095
  3,585
  4,115
  4,682
  5,286
  5,927
  6,603
  7,314
  8,059
  8,838
  9,651
  10,499
  11,381
  12,299
  13,253
  14,245
  15,275
  16,346
  17,459
  18,616
  19,820
  21,072
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  448
  596
  776
  991
  1,242
  1,533
  1,863
  2,233
  2,644
  3,095
  3,585
  4,115
  4,682
  5,286
  5,927
  6,603
  7,314
  8,059
  8,838
  9,651
  10,499
  11,381
  12,299
  13,253
  14,245
  15,275
  16,346
  17,459
  18,616
  19,820
  21,072
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.926
  1.926
  1.925
  1.925
  1.927
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
Average production assets, $m
  111
  147
  191
  244
  306
  378
  459
  551
  652
  763
  884
  1,014
  1,154
  1,303
  1,461
  1,628
  1,803
  1,987
  2,179
  2,379
  2,588
  2,806
  3,032
  3,267
  3,512
  3,766
  4,030
  4,304
  4,589
  4,886
  5,195
Working capital, $m
  62
  95
  124
  158
  199
  245
  298
  357
  423
  495
  573
  658
  748
  845
  947
  1,056
  1,169
  1,288
  1,413
  1,543
  1,678
  1,819
  1,966
  2,119
  2,277
  2,442
  2,613
  2,791
  2,976
  3,168
  3,369
Total debt, $m
  167
  250
  368
  509
  674
  865
  1,081
  1,324
  1,593
  1,889
  2,211
  2,558
  2,930
  3,327
  3,747
  4,190
  4,657
  5,146
  5,657
  6,190
  6,746
  7,325
  7,927
  8,553
  9,203
  9,879
  10,582
  11,312
  12,071
  12,861
  13,682
Total liabilities, $m
  308
  391
  509
  650
  815
  1,006
  1,222
  1,465
  1,734
  2,030
  2,352
  2,699
  3,071
  3,468
  3,888
  4,331
  4,798
  5,287
  5,798
  6,331
  6,887
  7,466
  8,068
  8,694
  9,344
  10,020
  10,723
  11,453
  12,212
  13,002
  13,823
Total equity, $m
  154
  205
  267
  341
  427
  527
  641
  768
  910
  1,065
  1,233
  1,415
  1,611
  1,818
  2,039
  2,271
  2,516
  2,772
  3,040
  3,320
  3,612
  3,915
  4,231
  4,559
  4,900
  5,255
  5,623
  6,006
  6,404
  6,818
  7,249
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  462
  596
  776
  991
  1,242
  1,533
  1,863
  2,233
  2,644
  3,095
  3,585
  4,114
  4,682
  5,286
  5,927
  6,602
  7,314
  8,059
  8,838
  9,651
  10,499
  11,381
  12,299
  13,253
  14,244
  15,275
  16,346
  17,459
  18,616
  19,820
  21,072
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.084
  1.220
  1.380
  1.490
  1.580
  1.640
  1.690
  1.720
  1.750
  1.770
  1.790
  1.810
  1.820
  1.830
  1.840
  1.840
  1.850
  1.860
  1.860
  1.860
  1.870
  1.870
  1.870
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.890
  1.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.313
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  38
  67
  94
  126
  163
  207
  256
  311
  372
  439
  511
  598
  682
  772
  866
  967
  1,072
  1,182
  1,298
  1,418
  1,544
  1,674
  1,810
  1,952
  2,098
  2,251
  2,410
  2,574
  2,746
  2,924
  3,110
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  35
  35
  43
  51
  62
  74
  87
  102
  119
  138
  158
  169
  192
  217
  244
  271
  301
  331
  363
  397
  431
  468
  505
  545
  585
  628
  672
  717
  765
  814
  866
Funds from operations, $m
  68
  102
  137
  177
  225
  280
  343
  413
  491
  576
  669
  767
  874
  989
  1,110
  1,238
  1,372
  1,513
  1,661
  1,815
  1,975
  2,142
  2,316
  2,496
  2,684
  2,879
  3,081
  3,292
  3,511
  3,739
  3,976
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  24
  29
  34
  40
  46
  53
  59
  66
  72
  78
  85
  91
  97
  102
  108
  114
  119
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  159
  165
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
Cash from operations, $m
  73
  79
  108
  143
  185
  234
  290
  354
  425
  504
  591
  682
  784
  892
  1,008
  1,130
  1,259
  1,394
  1,536
  1,685
  1,840
  2,001
  2,169
  2,344
  2,525
  2,714
  2,910
  3,114
  3,326
  3,546
  3,775
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -18
  -24
  -32
  -41
  -51
  -63
  -77
  -92
  -109
  -127
  -147
  -169
  -192
  -217
  -244
  -271
  -301
  -331
  -363
  -397
  -431
  -468
  -505
  -545
  -585
  -628
  -672
  -717
  -765
  -814
New CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -36
  -44
  -53
  -62
  -72
  -81
  -91
  -101
  -111
  -121
  -130
  -140
  -149
  -158
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -209
  -218
  -226
  -235
  -244
  -254
  -264
  -274
  -285
  -297
  -309
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -80
  -54
  -68
  -85
  -103
  -123
  -144
  -168
  -193
  -220
  -248
  -277
  -309
  -341
  -375
  -411
  -446
  -485
  -523
  -564
  -606
  -649
  -694
  -740
  -789
  -839
  -892
  -946
  -1,002
  -1,062
  -1,123
Free cash flow, $m
  -7
  24
  39
  58
  82
  111
  146
  186
  232
  285
  343
  404
  475
  551
  632
  720
  812
  910
  1,013
  1,121
  1,234
  1,352
  1,475
  1,603
  1,736
  1,875
  2,018
  2,168
  2,323
  2,484
  2,652
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  19
  97
  118
  141
  165
  190
  217
  243
  269
  296
  322
  347
  372
  396
  420
  443
  466
  489
  511
  534
  556
  579
  602
  626
  650
  676
  702
  730
  759
  790
  822
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  14
  97
  118
  141
  165
  190
  217
  243
  269
  296
  322
  347
  372
  396
  420
  443
  466
  489
  511
  534
  556
  579
  602
  626
  650
  676
  702
  730
  759
  790
  822
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  121
  157
  199
  247
  302
  362
  429
  502
  580
  665
  752
  847
  947
  1,053
  1,163
  1,279
  1,399
  1,524
  1,655
  1,790
  1,931
  2,077
  2,229
  2,387
  2,550
  2,721
  2,898
  3,082
  3,274
  3,474
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -40
  -51
  -62
  -74
  -87
  -100
  -114
  -127
  -141
  -155
  -169
  -182
  -195
  -208
  -220
  -233
  -245
  -256
  -268
  -280
  -292
  -304
  -316
  -328
  -341
  -354
  -368
  -383
  -398
  -414
  -431
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  70
  95
  125
  161
  202
  249
  302
  360
  425
  496
  570
  652
  739
  832
  931
  1,034
  1,143
  1,256
  1,375
  1,499
  1,627
  1,761
  1,901
  2,046
  2,196
  2,352
  2,515
  2,684
  2,860
  3,043
Discount rate, %
 
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  66
  85
  104
  124
  144
  163
  180
  194
  205
  213
  214
  213
  208
  199
  187
  172
  156
  138
  120
  102
  85
  69
  55
  43
  32
  24
  17
  12
  8
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Installed Building Products, Inc. is a holding company. The Company is a residential insulation installer in the United States. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's national platform included over 100 locations accessing customers in 48 continental states and the District of Columbia. The Company also installs complementary building products, including garage doors, rain gutters, shower doors, closet shelving and mirrors, which provides cross-selling opportunities to supplement the insulation installation business. The Company manages various aspects of the installation process for the customers, from the direct purchase and receipt of materials from national manufacturers, to supply of materials to job sites and quality installation. The Company's customers include production and custom homebuilders, multi-family and commercial contractors, and homeowners.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Installed Building Products (IBP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 54.5
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 13.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 28.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 45
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 30.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 55.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 92.9%
Total Debt to Equity 108.4%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Return On Total Capital 13.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Return On Equity 28.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.2%
EBITDA Margin 11.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Operating Margin 7.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Net Profit Margin 4.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Effective Tax Rate 36.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

IBP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IBP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $863 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Installed Building Products. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Installed Building Products. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IBP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 33% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for IBP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Installed Building Products, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Installed Building Products.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IBP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $26 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IBP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Installed Building Products.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Installed Building Products. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IBP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IBP are equal to 12.8%.

Life of production assets of 6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Installed Building Products operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IBP is equal to 8.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $154 million for Installed Building Products - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.714 million for Installed Building Products is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Installed Building Products at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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DHI D.R. Horton 42.67 111.05  str.buy
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NVR NVR 3,223.25 3,572.13  buy

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Installed Building Products posts 1Q profit   [May-05-17 07:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Installed Building Products posts 4Q profit   [07:17AM  Associated Press]
▶ Homebuilders see worst day in three years   [Sep-09-16 04:52PM  at CNBC]
Financial statements of IBP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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