Intrinsic value of Independence Contract Drilling, Inc. - ICD

Previous Close

$1.71

  Intrinsic Value

$1.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-26%

Previous close

$1.71

 
Intrinsic value

$1.26

 
Up/down potential

-26%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ICD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  229
  353
  529
  767
  1,082
  1,488
  1,997
  2,622
  3,374
  4,262
  5,292
  6,470
  7,799
  9,279
  10,911
  12,692
  14,620
  16,692
  18,904
  21,254
  23,738
  26,353
  29,098
  31,971
  34,973
  38,102
  41,361
  44,752
  48,278
  51,943
Variable operating expenses, $m
  190
  294
  439
  637
  899
  1,236
  1,659
  2,178
  2,803
  3,540
  4,396
  5,374
  6,478
  7,707
  9,062
  10,542
  12,143
  13,864
  15,702
  17,653
  19,717
  21,889
  24,169
  26,556
  29,048
  31,648
  34,355
  37,171
  40,100
  43,144
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  38
  39
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  71
Total operating expenses, $m
  228
  333
  478
  677
  940
  1,278
  1,702
  2,222
  2,848
  3,586
  4,443
  5,422
  6,527
  7,757
  9,113
  10,594
  12,197
  13,919
  15,758
  17,710
  19,775
  21,949
  24,230
  26,618
  29,112
  31,713
  34,422
  37,239
  40,170
  43,215
Operating income, $m
  1
  21
  50
  89
  142
  210
  295
  400
  526
  676
  849
  1,048
  1,272
  1,522
  1,797
  2,098
  2,423
  2,773
  3,146
  3,543
  3,963
  4,404
  4,868
  5,354
  5,861
  6,389
  6,940
  7,513
  8,109
  8,728
EBITDA, $m
  50
  97
  164
  255
  375
  530
  725
  964
  1,253
  1,593
  1,988
  2,440
  2,950
  3,519
  4,145
  4,829
  5,569
  6,365
  7,215
  8,117
  9,071
  10,076
  11,130
  12,234
  13,387
  14,589
  15,841
  17,144
  18,498
  19,906
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  11
  21
  35
  55
  82
  118
  164
  221
  292
  378
  478
  595
  729
  880
  1,048
  1,233
  1,435
  1,654
  1,889
  2,140
  2,407
  2,689
  2,985
  3,297
  3,623
  3,964
  4,319
  4,689
  5,073
  5,474
Earnings before tax, $m
  -10
  0
  15
  35
  60
  92
  131
  179
  234
  298
  371
  453
  543
  642
  749
  865
  988
  1,119
  1,257
  1,403
  1,556
  1,716
  1,883
  2,057
  2,238
  2,426
  2,621
  2,824
  3,035
  3,254
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  4
  9
  16
  25
  35
  48
  63
  80
  100
  122
  147
  173
  202
  233
  267
  302
  339
  379
  420
  463
  508
  555
  604
  655
  708
  763
  820
  879
Net income, $m
  -10
  0
  11
  25
  44
  67
  96
  130
  171
  218
  271
  330
  396
  469
  547
  631
  721
  817
  918
  1,024
  1,136
  1,253
  1,374
  1,501
  1,633
  1,771
  1,913
  2,062
  2,216
  2,376

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  934
  1,443
  2,158
  3,131
  4,417
  6,073
  8,151
  10,703
  13,772
  17,395
  21,601
  26,409
  31,832
  37,874
  44,533
  51,802
  59,672
  68,129
  77,160
  86,750
  96,889
  107,564
  118,768
  130,496
  142,746
  155,519
  168,822
  182,662
  197,053
  212,010
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  934
  1,443
  2,158
  3,131
  4,417
  6,073
  8,151
  10,703
  13,772
  17,395
  21,601
  26,409
  31,832
  37,874
  44,533
  51,802
  59,672
  68,129
  77,160
  86,750
  96,889
  107,564
  118,768
  130,496
  142,746
  155,519
  168,822
  182,662
  197,053
  212,010
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
Average production assets, $m
  615
  951
  1,422
  2,063
  2,911
  4,002
  5,372
  7,054
  9,076
  11,464
  14,236
  17,405
  20,979
  24,961
  29,349
  34,140
  39,327
  44,900
  50,852
  57,173
  63,854
  70,890
  78,274
  86,003
  94,076
  102,495
  111,262
  120,383
  129,868
  139,725
Working capital, $m
  44
  69
  103
  149
  210
  289
  387
  509
  655
  827
  1,027
  1,255
  1,513
  1,800
  2,117
  2,462
  2,836
  3,238
  3,667
  4,123
  4,605
  5,113
  5,645
  6,202
  6,785
  7,392
  8,024
  8,682
  9,366
  10,077
Total debt, $m
  246
  415
  651
  974
  1,399
  1,947
  2,635
  3,480
  4,496
  5,695
  7,087
  8,679
  10,474
  12,473
  14,678
  17,084
  19,689
  22,488
  25,477
  28,652
  32,007
  35,541
  39,249
  43,131
  47,186
  51,414
  55,817
  60,398
  65,162
  70,113
Total liabilities, $m
  309
  478
  714
  1,036
  1,462
  2,010
  2,698
  3,543
  4,559
  5,758
  7,150
  8,741
  10,536
  12,536
  14,740
  17,147
  19,751
  22,551
  25,540
  28,714
  32,070
  35,604
  39,312
  43,194
  47,249
  51,477
  55,880
  60,461
  65,224
  70,175
Total equity, $m
  625
  965
  1,444
  2,095
  2,955
  4,063
  5,453
  7,160
  9,214
  11,637
  14,451
  17,668
  21,296
  25,338
  29,792
  34,656
  39,921
  45,578
  51,620
  58,036
  64,818
  71,960
  79,456
  87,302
  95,497
  104,042
  112,942
  122,201
  131,828
  141,835
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  934
  1,443
  2,158
  3,131
  4,417
  6,073
  8,151
  10,703
  13,773
  17,395
  21,601
  26,409
  31,832
  37,874
  44,532
  51,803
  59,672
  68,129
  77,160
  86,750
  96,888
  107,564
  118,768
  130,496
  142,746
  155,519
  168,822
  182,662
  197,052
  212,010
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.390
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -10
  0
  11
  25
  44
  67
  96
  130
  171
  218
  271
  330
  396
  469
  547
  631
  721
  817
  918
  1,024
  1,136
  1,253
  1,374
  1,501
  1,633
  1,771
  1,913
  2,062
  2,216
  2,376
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  49
  76
  114
  165
  233
  320
  430
  565
  726
  917
  1,139
  1,392
  1,678
  1,997
  2,348
  2,731
  3,146
  3,592
  4,068
  4,574
  5,108
  5,671
  6,262
  6,880
  7,526
  8,200
  8,901
  9,631
  10,389
  11,178
Funds from operations, $m
  39
  77
  125
  191
  277
  388
  526
  695
  897
  1,135
  1,410
  1,723
  2,075
  2,465
  2,895
  3,362
  3,867
  4,409
  4,986
  5,598
  6,244
  6,924
  7,636
  8,382
  9,160
  9,970
  10,814
  11,692
  12,605
  13,554
Change in working capital, $m
  17
  24
  34
  46
  61
  79
  99
  121
  146
  172
  200
  229
  258
  287
  317
  346
  374
  402
  429
  456
  482
  507
  533
  557
  582
  607
  632
  658
  684
  711
Cash from operations, $m
  23
  52
  91
  144
  216
  309
  427
  574
  751
  963
  1,210
  1,494
  1,817
  2,178
  2,578
  3,017
  3,493
  4,007
  4,557
  5,142
  5,762
  6,416
  7,104
  7,824
  8,577
  9,363
  10,182
  11,035
  11,921
  12,843
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -31
  -49
  -76
  -114
  -165
  -233
  -320
  -430
  -564
  -726
  -917
  -1,139
  -1,392
  -1,678
  -1,997
  -2,348
  -2,731
  -3,146
  -3,592
  -4,068
  -4,574
  -5,108
  -5,671
  -6,262
  -6,880
  -7,526
  -8,200
  -8,901
  -9,631
  -10,389
New CAPEX, $m
  -231
  -335
  -471
  -641
  -848
  -1,091
  -1,370
  -1,682
  -2,023
  -2,388
  -2,772
  -3,169
  -3,574
  -3,982
  -4,389
  -4,791
  -5,186
  -5,574
  -5,952
  -6,321
  -6,682
  -7,036
  -7,384
  -7,729
  -8,073
  -8,418
  -8,767
  -9,122
  -9,484
  -9,858
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -262
  -384
  -547
  -755
  -1,013
  -1,324
  -1,690
  -2,112
  -2,587
  -3,114
  -3,689
  -4,308
  -4,966
  -5,660
  -6,386
  -7,139
  -7,917
  -8,720
  -9,544
  -10,389
  -11,256
  -12,144
  -13,055
  -13,991
  -14,953
  -15,944
  -16,967
  -18,023
  -19,115
  -20,247
Free cash flow, $m
  -239
  -332
  -456
  -611
  -797
  -1,015
  -1,263
  -1,538
  -1,836
  -2,151
  -2,479
  -2,813
  -3,149
  -3,482
  -3,807
  -4,122
  -4,424
  -4,713
  -4,987
  -5,247
  -5,493
  -5,727
  -5,951
  -6,167
  -6,376
  -6,581
  -6,784
  -6,988
  -7,194
  -7,404
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  116
  168
  237
  322
  426
  548
  688
  845
  1,016
  1,199
  1,392
  1,592
  1,795
  2,000
  2,204
  2,406
  2,605
  2,799
  2,989
  3,175
  3,356
  3,533
  3,709
  3,882
  4,055
  4,228
  4,403
  4,581
  4,763
  4,951
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  243
  340
  467
  626
  817
  1,040
  1,295
  1,577
  1,882
  2,206
  2,543
  2,886
  3,231
  3,573
  3,908
  4,232
  4,544
  4,841
  5,124
  5,392
  5,647
  5,889
  6,121
  6,345
  6,562
  6,775
  6,986
  7,198
  7,412
  7,631
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  359
  508
  704
  948
  1,243
  1,588
  1,983
  2,422
  2,898
  3,405
  3,935
  4,478
  5,026
  5,573
  6,112
  6,638
  7,149
  7,640
  8,113
  8,567
  9,003
  9,422
  9,830
  10,227
  10,617
  11,003
  11,389
  11,779
  12,175
  12,582
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  120
  176
  248
  337
  445
  573
  720
  883
  1,063
  1,254
  1,456
  1,664
  1,877
  2,091
  2,305
  2,516
  2,724
  2,927
  3,126
  3,320
  3,509
  3,695
  3,878
  4,060
  4,240
  4,421
  4,605
  4,791
  4,981
  5,177
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -243
  -340
  -478
  -651
  -861
  -1,107
  -1,391
  -1,707
  -2,053
  -2,424
  -2,814
  -3,217
  -3,628
  -4,042
  -4,455
  -4,863
  -5,265
  -5,658
  -6,041
  -6,416
  -6,782
  -7,142
  -7,496
  -7,846
  -8,195
  -8,545
  -8,899
  -9,259
  -9,627
  -10,007
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -123
  -164
  -231
  -314
  -415
  -534
  -671
  -824
  -991
  -1,170
  -1,358
  -1,552
  -1,751
  -1,951
  -2,150
  -2,347
  -2,541
  -2,730
  -2,916
  -3,096
  -3,273
  -3,447
  -3,617
  -3,786
  -3,955
  -4,124
  -4,295
  -4,468
  -4,646
  -4,829
Discount rate, %
  6.10
  6.41
  6.73
  7.06
  7.41
  7.79
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.94
  10.43
  10.95
  11.50
  12.08
  12.68
  13.32
  13.98
  14.68
  15.41
  16.19
  16.99
  17.84
  18.74
  19.67
  20.66
  21.69
  22.77
  23.91
  25.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -116
  -145
  -190
  -239
  -290
  -341
  -387
  -426
  -456
  -474
  -479
  -472
  -453
  -425
  -389
  -347
  -303
  -259
  -216
  -176
  -140
  -109
  -83
  -61
  -44
  -31
  -21
  -14
  -9
  -6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  53.0
  29.8
  17.6
  10.9
  7.0
  4.6
  3.2
  2.3
  1.6
  1.2
  0.9
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1

Independence Contract Drilling, Inc. provides land-based contract drilling services for oil and natural gas producers in the United States. The company constructs, owns, and operates a fleet of ShaleDriller rigs to optimize the development of various oil and gas properties in the Permian Basin. As of December 31, 2015, it had 14 ShaleDriller rigs. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Independence Contract Drilling, Inc. (ICD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

ICD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ICD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $143 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Independence Contract Drilling, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Independence Contract Drilling, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ICD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.1%, whose default value for ICD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Independence Contract Drilling, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Independence Contract Drilling, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ICD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $37 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ICD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.4% for Independence Contract Drilling, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Independence Contract Drilling, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ICD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ICD are equal to 269%.

Life of production assets of 12.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Independence Contract Drilling, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ICD is equal to 19.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $391.533 million for Independence Contract Drilling, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 77.079 million for Independence Contract Drilling, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Independence Contract Drilling, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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