Intrinsic value of ICF International - ICFI

Previous Close

$52.30

  Intrinsic Value

$68.20

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+30%

Previous close

$52.30

 
Intrinsic value

$68.20

 
Up/down potential

+30%

 
Rating

buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ICFI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.68
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,185
  1,209
  1,237
  1,268
  1,304
  1,343
  1,387
  1,434
  1,485
  1,540
  1,599
  1,663
  1,730
  1,802
  1,878
  1,959
  2,045
  2,136
  2,232
  2,334
  2,441
  2,554
  2,674
  2,799
  2,932
  3,071
  3,218
  3,373
  3,536
  3,707
  3,887
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,025
  1,047
  1,072
  1,100
  1,131
  1,166
  1,203
  1,244
  1,287
  1,334
  1,316
  1,369
  1,426
  1,486
  1,550
  1,618
  1,690
  1,766
  1,847
  1,932
  2,021
  2,115
  2,215
  2,320
  2,430
  2,547
  2,669
  2,798
  2,933
  3,076
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  100
  103
  106
  108
  111
  114
  116
  119
  122
  125
  129
  132
  135
  138
  142
  145
  149
  153
  157
  161
  165
  169
  173
  177
  182
  186
  191
  196
  201
  206
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,102
  1,125
  1,150
  1,178
  1,208
  1,242
  1,280
  1,319
  1,363
  1,409
  1,459
  1,445
  1,501
  1,561
  1,624
  1,692
  1,763
  1,839
  1,919
  2,004
  2,093
  2,186
  2,284
  2,388
  2,497
  2,612
  2,733
  2,860
  2,994
  3,134
  3,282
Operating income, $m
  83
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
  107
  114
  122
  131
  140
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  297
  313
  330
  349
  369
  389
  411
  435
  459
  486
  513
  542
  573
  606
EBITDA, $m
  112
  155
  159
  163
  168
  174
  180
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  235
  246
  259
  273
  288
  303
  320
  337
  356
  376
  397
  420
  444
  469
  495
  523
  553
  584
  617
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
Earnings before tax, $m
  75
  74
  77
  81
  85
  90
  96
  102
  109
  117
  125
  203
  213
  224
  235
  247
  260
  274
  289
  305
  322
  340
  359
  379
  401
  424
  448
  473
  500
  528
  558
Tax expense, $m
  28
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  55
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
Net income, $m
  47
  54
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  92
  148
  155
  163
  172
  181
  190
  200
  211
  223
  235
  248
  262
  277
  293
  309
  327
  345
  365
  385
  407

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,086
  1,102
  1,127
  1,156
  1,189
  1,225
  1,264
  1,307
  1,354
  1,404
  1,458
  1,516
  1,577
  1,643
  1,712
  1,786
  1,864
  1,947
  2,035
  2,127
  2,225
  2,328
  2,437
  2,552
  2,673
  2,800
  2,934
  3,075
  3,223
  3,379
  3,543
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,080
  1,102
  1,127
  1,156
  1,189
  1,225
  1,264
  1,307
  1,354
  1,404
  1,458
  1,516
  1,577
  1,643
  1,712
  1,786
  1,864
  1,947
  2,035
  2,127
  2,225
  2,328
  2,437
  2,552
  2,673
  2,800
  2,934
  3,075
  3,223
  3,379
  3,543
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.097
  1.097
  1.098
  1.097
  1.097
  1.096
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
Average production assets, $m
  96
  98
  100
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  237
  249
  261
  273
  286
  300
  315
Working capital, $m
  102
  98
  100
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  237
  249
  261
  273
  286
  300
  315
Total debt, $m
  259
  269
  281
  295
  311
  328
  347
  368
  390
  414
  440
  468
  498
  529
  563
  598
  636
  676
  718
  762
  809
  859
  911
  966
  1,025
  1,086
  1,150
  1,218
  1,289
  1,364
  1,443
Total liabilities, $m
  520
  530
  542
  556
  572
  589
  608
  629
  651
  675
  701
  729
  759
  790
  824
  859
  897
  937
  979
  1,023
  1,070
  1,120
  1,172
  1,227
  1,286
  1,347
  1,411
  1,479
  1,550
  1,625
  1,704
Total equity, $m
  566
  572
  585
  600
  617
  636
  656
  678
  703
  729
  757
  787
  819
  853
  889
  927
  968
  1,011
  1,056
  1,104
  1,155
  1,208
  1,265
  1,324
  1,387
  1,453
  1,523
  1,596
  1,673
  1,754
  1,839
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,086
  1,102
  1,127
  1,156
  1,189
  1,225
  1,264
  1,307
  1,354
  1,404
  1,458
  1,516
  1,578
  1,643
  1,713
  1,786
  1,865
  1,948
  2,035
  2,127
  2,225
  2,328
  2,437
  2,551
  2,673
  2,800
  2,934
  3,075
  3,223
  3,379
  3,543
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.458
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.780
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  47
  54
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  92
  148
  155
  163
  172
  181
  190
  200
  211
  223
  235
  248
  262
  277
  293
  309
  327
  345
  365
  385
  407
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  29
  72
  72
  72
  72
  72
  73
  73
  73
  73
  73
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Funds from operations, $m
  64
  126
  129
  131
  135
  138
  143
  147
  153
  158
  165
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270
  285
  301
  318
  336
  355
  375
  397
  419
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Cash from operations, $m
  80
  124
  126
  129
  132
  135
  139
  144
  149
  154
  160
  148
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  199
  210
  222
  234
  247
  261
  275
  291
  307
  324
  343
  362
  383
  404
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -14
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -26
Free cash flow, $m
  66
  119
  120
  122
  125
  128
  132
  136
  140
  145
  151
  138
  145
  152
  159
  168
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  243
  257
  272
  287
  303
  321
  339
  358
  379
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -56
  10
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  33
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -67
  10
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  33
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -2
  129
  133
  136
  141
  145
  151
  156
  162
  169
  177
  166
  174
  183
  193
  203
  214
  226
  238
  251
  265
  280
  296
  312
  330
  348
  368
  388
  410
  433
  458
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -43
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  123
  119
  121
  124
  127
  130
  134
  138
  143
  149
  136
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
  214
  226
  239
  253
  267
  282
  298
  315
  333
  352
  372
Discount rate, %
 
  5.50
  5.78
  6.06
  6.37
  6.69
  7.02
  7.37
  7.74
  8.13
  8.53
  8.96
  9.41
  9.88
  10.37
  10.89
  11.43
  12.01
  12.61
  13.24
  13.90
  14.59
  15.32
  16.09
  16.89
  17.74
  18.62
  19.56
  20.53
  21.56
  22.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  117
  107
  102
  97
  92
  87
  81
  76
  71
  66
  53
  48
  44
  39
  35
  31
  27
  23
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ICF International, Inc. provides professional services and technology-based solutions to government and commercial clients, including management, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services. The Company's services address four markets: energy, environment and infrastructure; health, education and social programs; safety and security, and consumer and financial. Its services include research and analytic services, assessment and advisory services, design and management services, solution identification and implementation services, and engagement services. The Company researches policy, industry and stakeholder issues, trends and behavior. The Company collects and analyzes various data to understand issues and options for its clients. The Company measures and evaluates results and their impact and, based on those assessments, the Company provides advice to its clients on how to navigate societal, market, business, communication and technology challenges.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ICF International (ICFI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.2
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 7.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 45.8%
Total Debt to Equity 45.8%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Total Capital 5.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Equity 8.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.8%
EBITDA Margin 9.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Operating Margin 7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Net Profit Margin 4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Effective Tax Rate 37.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38%
Payout Ratio 0%

ICFI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ICFI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1185 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ICF International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ICF International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ICFI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.5%, whose default value for ICFI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ICF International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ICF International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ICFI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $98 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ICFI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for ICF International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ICF International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ICFI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ICFI are equal to 8.1%.

Life of production assets of 26.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ICF International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ICFI is equal to 8.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $566 million for ICF International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.802 million for ICF International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ICF International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ CDC Awards ICF $9 Million Cancer Surveillance Task Order   [Dec-04-17 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ICF beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-02-17 06:05PM  Associated Press]
▶ ICF Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Best Cheap Stocks To Buy   [09:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ HHS Awards ICF $25 Million Public Health Preparedness IDIQ   [Oct-05-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ICF Helps CDC Launch Workplace Health Resource Center   [Sep-27-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ FEMA Awards ICF $21 Million Emergency Preparedness Contract   [Aug-16-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ICF meets 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-02-17 10:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ ICF Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ICF Selected to Support Global Climate Activities   [Jun-27-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for June 26th   [Jun-26-17 09:38AM  Zacks]
▶ Former ManpowerGroup Executive Joins ICF Board of Directors   [Jun-01-17 04:07PM  Business Wire]
▶ ICF Announces Amendment and Extension of Credit Facility   [May-18-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for May 15th   [May-15-17 11:01AM  Zacks]
▶ ICF tops Street 1Q forecasts   [May-04-17 06:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ ICF Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ICF misses Street 4Q forecasts   [Feb-27-17 05:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ NTIS Selects ICF as Industry Partner for Data Innovation   [Jan-17-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of ICFI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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