Intrinsic value of iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited - ICLK

Previous Close

$3.93

  Intrinsic Value

$28.90

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+636%

Previous close

$3.93

 
Intrinsic value

$28.90

 
Up/down potential

+636%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ICLK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  31.40
  28.76
  26.38
  24.25
  22.32
  20.59
  19.03
  17.63
  16.36
  15.23
  14.21
  13.28
  12.46
  11.71
  11.04
  10.44
  9.89
  9.40
  8.96
  8.57
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.24
Revenue, $m
  164
  211
  267
  332
  406
  490
  583
  686
  798
  920
  1,050
  1,190
  1,338
  1,495
  1,660
  1,833
  2,014
  2,204
  2,401
  2,607
  2,821
  3,043
  3,275
  3,515
  3,765
  4,024
  4,294
  4,575
  4,867
  5,170
Variable operating expenses, $m
  71
  91
  115
  143
  175
  211
  252
  296
  344
  397
  453
  513
  577
  644
  716
  790
  869
  950
  1,035
  1,124
  1,216
  1,312
  1,412
  1,516
  1,623
  1,735
  1,852
  1,973
  2,098
  2,230
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  99
  101
  104
  106
  108
  111
  113
  115
  118
  121
  123
  126
  129
  132
  134
  137
  140
  144
  147
  150
  153
  157
  160
  164
  167
Total operating expenses, $m
  160
  182
  208
  238
  272
  310
  353
  400
  450
  505
  564
  626
  692
  762
  837
  913
  995
  1,079
  1,167
  1,258
  1,353
  1,452
  1,556
  1,663
  1,773
  1,888
  2,009
  2,133
  2,262
  2,397
Operating income, $m
  4
  29
  59
  94
  134
  179
  230
  286
  348
  415
  487
  564
  646
  732
  823
  919
  1,020
  1,125
  1,234
  1,348
  1,467
  1,591
  1,719
  1,853
  1,991
  2,136
  2,286
  2,442
  2,605
  2,774
EBITDA, $m
  8
  34
  65
  102
  143
  191
  244
  302
  366
  436
  511
  591
  676
  766
  861
  961
  1,066
  1,175
  1,289
  1,408
  1,532
  1,660
  1,794
  1,933
  2,078
  2,228
  2,384
  2,547
  2,716
  2,892
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  21
  24
  28
  32
  37
  41
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  74
  81
  87
  94
  101
  109
  117
  125
  133
  142
Earnings before tax, $m
  4
  28
  56
  89
  127
  170
  219
  272
  331
  394
  463
  536
  613
  695
  782
  873
  968
  1,068
  1,172
  1,280
  1,393
  1,510
  1,632
  1,758
  1,890
  2,027
  2,169
  2,317
  2,472
  2,632
Tax expense, $m
  1
  7
  15
  24
  34
  46
  59
  74
  89
  106
  125
  145
  166
  188
  211
  236
  261
  288
  316
  346
  376
  408
  441
  475
  510
  547
  586
  626
  667
  711
Net income, $m
  3
  20
  41
  65
  93
  124
  160
  199
  241
  288
  338
  391
  448
  508
  571
  637
  707
  780
  855
  934
  1,017
  1,102
  1,191
  1,284
  1,380
  1,480
  1,584
  1,692
  1,804
  1,921

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  248
  319
  404
  502
  614
  740
  881
  1,036
  1,206
  1,389
  1,586
  1,797
  2,021
  2,258
  2,507
  2,769
  3,043
  3,329
  3,627
  3,938
  4,261
  4,597
  4,946
  5,309
  5,687
  6,079
  6,487
  6,910
  7,351
  7,810
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  248
  319
  404
  502
  614
  740
  881
  1,036
  1,206
  1,389
  1,586
  1,797
  2,021
  2,258
  2,507
  2,769
  3,043
  3,329
  3,627
  3,938
  4,261
  4,597
  4,946
  5,309
  5,687
  6,079
  6,487
  6,910
  7,351
  7,810
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
Average production assets, $m
  43
  55
  69
  86
  105
  127
  151
  178
  207
  238
  272
  308
  347
  387
  430
  475
  522
  571
  622
  675
  731
  788
  848
  910
  975
  1,042
  1,112
  1,185
  1,260
  1,339
Working capital, $m
  37
  47
  60
  74
  91
  109
  130
  153
  178
  205
  234
  265
  298
  333
  370
  409
  449
  491
  535
  581
  629
  679
  730
  784
  840
  897
  958
  1,020
  1,085
  1,153
Total debt, $m
  32
  58
  89
  125
  166
  212
  263
  320
  382
  449
  521
  598
  679
  766
  857
  952
  1,052
  1,157
  1,265
  1,379
  1,497
  1,620
  1,747
  1,880
  2,017
  2,160
  2,309
  2,464
  2,625
  2,792
Total liabilities, $m
  91
  117
  147
  183
  224
  270
  321
  378
  440
  507
  579
  656
  738
  824
  915
  1,011
  1,111
  1,215
  1,324
  1,437
  1,555
  1,678
  1,805
  1,938
  2,076
  2,219
  2,368
  2,522
  2,683
  2,851
Total equity, $m
  158
  203
  256
  319
  390
  470
  559
  658
  766
  882
  1,007
  1,141
  1,283
  1,434
  1,592
  1,758
  1,932
  2,114
  2,303
  2,500
  2,706
  2,919
  3,141
  3,372
  3,611
  3,860
  4,119
  4,388
  4,668
  4,960
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  249
  320
  403
  502
  614
  740
  880
  1,036
  1,206
  1,389
  1,586
  1,797
  2,021
  2,258
  2,507
  2,769
  3,043
  3,329
  3,627
  3,937
  4,261
  4,597
  4,946
  5,310
  5,687
  6,079
  6,487
  6,910
  7,351
  7,811
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.200
  0.290
  0.350
  0.390
  0.430
  0.450
  0.470
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  20
  41
  65
  93
  124
  160
  199
  241
  288
  338
  391
  448
  508
  571
  637
  707
  780
  855
  934
  1,017
  1,102
  1,191
  1,284
  1,380
  1,480
  1,584
  1,692
  1,804
  1,921
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  105
  112
  119
Funds from operations, $m
  7
  25
  47
  73
  102
  136
  173
  215
  260
  309
  362
  418
  478
  542
  609
  679
  753
  830
  910
  994
  1,081
  1,172
  1,266
  1,364
  1,466
  1,572
  1,682
  1,797
  1,916
  2,040
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  11
  12
  14
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
Cash from operations, $m
  -2
  15
  35
  58
  86
  117
  152
  192
  235
  282
  333
  387
  445
  507
  572
  641
  713
  788
  866
  948
  1,034
  1,122
  1,215
  1,310
  1,410
  1,514
  1,622
  1,734
  1,851
  1,972
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -105
  -112
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -49
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -72
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -108
  -115
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -146
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -191
Free cash flow, $m
  -15
  -1
  15
  35
  59
  86
  117
  152
  190
  232
  278
  327
  380
  436
  495
  558
  624
  693
  765
  840
  918
  1,000
  1,085
  1,173
  1,265
  1,360
  1,460
  1,563
  1,670
  1,782
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  46
  51
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  35
  25
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  57
  51
  44
  36
  41
  46
  51
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  41
  50
  59
  71
  100
  132
  168
  208
  252
  299
  350
  404
  461
  522
  586
  653
  724
  797
  874
  953
  1,036
  1,123
  1,212
  1,306
  1,403
  1,504
  1,608
  1,718
  1,831
  1,949
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -38
  -45
  -54
  -62
  -71
  -80
  -89
  -99
  -108
  -117
  -125
  -134
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -189
  -197
  -205
  -213
  -222
  -231
  -240
  -249
  -259
  -269
  -280
  -291
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  4
  4
  5
  9
  29
  52
  79
  110
  144
  183
  224
  270
  319
  372
  428
  487
  550
  615
  684
  756
  831
  909
  991
  1,075
  1,163
  1,255
  1,350
  1,448
  1,551
  1,658
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  4
  4
  5
  7
  22
  38
  53
  69
  83
  96
  107
  115
  121
  125
  126
  124
  120
  113
  105
  96
  86
  75
  65
  55
  45
  37
  29
  22
  17
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  85.5
  78.2
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5
  75.5

iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited is an online marketing technology company. The Company serves as an integrated cross-channel gateway that provides marketers ways to optimize their online marketing cycle. Its integrated data-driven solutions help marketers identify, engage and activate potential customers, monitor and measure the results of marketing campaigns, and create content catering to potential customers across different content distribution channels through both PC and mobile devices. Its solutions are enabled and supported by data set, sophisticated data analytics capabilities and cutting edge technologies. It collects data from a variety of channels, including through its proprietary tracking tools, from marketers, publishers and ad exchanges when managing marketing campaigns, and to a lesser extent, from third-party strategic partners.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited (ICLK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

ICLK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ICLK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $125 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ICLK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 31.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ICLK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ICLK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 43.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $87 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ICLK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ICLK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ICLK are equal to 25.9%.

Life of production assets of 11.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ICLK is equal to 22.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $119.984 million for iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 52.295 million for iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

CONTACT US      

About X-FIN       Privacy policy       Terms of use      

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2019. All rigths reserved.