Intrinsic value of iClick Interactive Asia Group ADR - ICLK

Previous Close

$3.75

  Intrinsic Value

$39.79

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+961%

Previous close

$3.75

 
Intrinsic value

$39.79

 
Up/down potential

+961%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ICLK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  31.40
  28.76
  26.38
  24.25
  22.32
  20.59
  19.03
  17.63
  16.36
  15.23
  14.21
  13.28
  12.46
  11.71
  11.04
  10.44
  9.89
  9.40
  8.96
  8.57
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.24
Revenue, $m
  165
  212
  268
  333
  407
  491
  584
  687
  800
  922
  1,052
  1,192
  1,341
  1,498
  1,663
  1,837
  2,018
  2,208
  2,406
  2,612
  2,827
  3,050
  3,281
  3,522
  3,772
  4,033
  4,303
  4,584
  4,877
  5,181
Variable operating expenses, $m
  69
  87
  109
  134
  163
  195
  231
  270
  314
  361
  405
  459
  516
  576
  640
  707
  777
  850
  926
  1,005
  1,088
  1,174
  1,263
  1,355
  1,452
  1,552
  1,656
  1,764
  1,877
  1,994
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  99
  101
  104
  106
  108
  111
  113
  115
  118
  121
  123
  126
  129
  132
  134
  137
  140
  144
  147
  150
  153
  157
  160
  164
  167
Total operating expenses, $m
  158
  178
  202
  229
  260
  294
  332
  374
  420
  469
  516
  572
  631
  694
  761
  830
  903
  979
  1,058
  1,139
  1,225
  1,314
  1,407
  1,502
  1,602
  1,705
  1,813
  1,924
  2,041
  2,161
Operating income, $m
  6
  34
  66
  104
  148
  197
  252
  313
  380
  453
  537
  620
  709
  803
  903
  1,007
  1,116
  1,230
  1,349
  1,472
  1,601
  1,736
  1,875
  2,020
  2,171
  2,328
  2,491
  2,660
  2,837
  3,020
EBITDA, $m
  16
  44
  78
  117
  163
  214
  272
  335
  404
  480
  561
  648
  740
  838
  941
  1,049
  1,162
  1,280
  1,404
  1,532
  1,666
  1,805
  1,950
  2,101
  2,257
  2,420
  2,589
  2,765
  2,948
  3,139
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  21
  24
  28
  32
  37
  41
  46
  52
  57
  63
  68
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  133
  142
Earnings before tax, $m
  6
  32
  63
  99
  141
  188
  241
  299
  363
  432
  513
  592
  677
  767
  861
  960
  1,064
  1,173
  1,286
  1,404
  1,527
  1,655
  1,787
  1,926
  2,069
  2,218
  2,374
  2,535
  2,703
  2,878
Tax expense, $m
  2
  9
  17
  27
  38
  51
  65
  81
  98
  117
  138
  160
  183
  207
  232
  259
  287
  317
  347
  379
  412
  447
  483
  520
  559
  599
  641
  684
  730
  777
Net income, $m
  4
  23
  46
  72
  103
  137
  176
  218
  265
  315
  374
  432
  494
  560
  629
  701
  777
  856
  939
  1,025
  1,115
  1,208
  1,305
  1,406
  1,510
  1,619
  1,733
  1,851
  1,973
  2,101

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  249
  320
  405
  503
  615
  741
  883
  1,038
  1,208
  1,392
  1,590
  1,801
  2,025
  2,262
  2,512
  2,774
  3,049
  3,336
  3,634
  3,946
  4,270
  4,607
  4,957
  5,320
  5,698
  6,091
  6,500
  6,925
  7,367
  7,827
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  249
  320
  405
  503
  615
  741
  883
  1,038
  1,208
  1,392
  1,590
  1,801
  2,025
  2,262
  2,512
  2,774
  3,049
  3,336
  3,634
  3,946
  4,270
  4,607
  4,957
  5,320
  5,698
  6,091
  6,500
  6,925
  7,367
  7,827
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.663
  0.663
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.663
  0.661
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
Average production assets, $m
  43
  55
  69
  86
  105
  127
  151
  178
  207
  239
  273
  309
  347
  388
  431
  476
  523
  572
  623
  677
  732
  790
  850
  912
  977
  1,044
  1,114
  1,187
  1,263
  1,342
Working capital, $m
  37
  47
  60
  74
  91
  109
  130
  153
  178
  205
  235
  266
  299
  334
  371
  410
  450
  492
  537
  582
  630
  680
  732
  785
  841
  899
  960
  1,022
  1,087
  1,155
Total debt, $m
  32
  58
  89
  125
  166
  212
  264
  321
  383
  450
  522
  599
  681
  767
  859
  954
  1,054
  1,159
  1,268
  1,382
  1,500
  1,623
  1,751
  1,884
  2,022
  2,165
  2,314
  2,469
  2,630
  2,798
Total liabilities, $m
  91
  117
  148
  183
  224
  271
  322
  379
  441
  508
  580
  657
  739
  826
  917
  1,013
  1,113
  1,217
  1,327
  1,440
  1,558
  1,681
  1,809
  1,942
  2,080
  2,223
  2,372
  2,528
  2,689
  2,857
Total equity, $m
  158
  203
  257
  319
  390
  471
  560
  659
  767
  884
  1,009
  1,144
  1,286
  1,437
  1,595
  1,762
  1,936
  2,118
  2,308
  2,506
  2,711
  2,925
  3,147
  3,378
  3,619
  3,868
  4,127
  4,397
  4,678
  4,970
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  249
  320
  405
  502
  614
  742
  882
  1,038
  1,208
  1,392
  1,589
  1,801
  2,025
  2,263
  2,512
  2,775
  3,049
  3,335
  3,635
  3,946
  4,269
  4,606
  4,956
  5,320
  5,699
  6,091
  6,499
  6,925
  7,367
  7,827
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.210
  0.290
  0.350
  0.390
  0.430
  0.450
  0.470
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635
  0.635

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  23
  46
  72
  103
  137
  176
  218
  265
  315
  374
  432
  494
  560
  629
  701
  777
  856
  939
  1,025
  1,115
  1,208
  1,305
  1,406
  1,510
  1,619
  1,733
  1,851
  1,973
  2,101
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  99
  105
  112
  119
Funds from operations, $m
  14
  34
  58
  86
  118
  154
  195
  240
  289
  343
  398
  460
  525
  594
  667
  743
  823
  907
  994
  1,085
  1,179
  1,278
  1,380
  1,486
  1,597
  1,712
  1,831
  1,956
  2,085
  2,220
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  11
  12
  14
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
Cash from operations, $m
  5
  23
  45
  71
  101
  136
  174
  217
  264
  315
  369
  429
  492
  559
  630
  704
  783
  864
  950
  1,039
  1,132
  1,228
  1,328
  1,433
  1,541
  1,654
  1,771
  1,893
  2,020
  2,152
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -86
  -92
  -99
  -105
  -112
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -72
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -108
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -146
  -153
  -162
  -172
  -181
  -191
Free cash flow, $m
  -8
  7
  26
  48
  75
  105
  139
  177
  219
  265
  314
  368
  426
  488
  553
  621
  693
  769
  848
  930
  1,016
  1,105
  1,198
  1,295
  1,396
  1,500
  1,609
  1,722
  1,839
  1,961
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  46
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  34
  22
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  56
  48
  39
  36
  41
  46
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  48
  56
  65
  84
  116
  151
  190
  234
  281
  333
  386
  445
  508
  574
  644
  717
  794
  874
  957
  1,044
  1,134
  1,228
  1,326
  1,428
  1,534
  1,643
  1,758
  1,877
  2,000
  2,129
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -38
  -45
  -54
  -62
  -71
  -80
  -90
  -99
  -108
  -117
  -126
  -134
  -142
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -222
  -231
  -240
  -250
  -259
  -270
  -281
  -292
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  10
  10
  11
  22
  44
  70
  101
  135
  173
  216
  261
  311
  365
  424
  485
  551
  619
  692
  767
  846
  929
  1,015
  1,104
  1,197
  1,293
  1,394
  1,498
  1,607
  1,720
  1,837
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  9
  9
  10
  18
  34
  51
  68
  84
  100
  113
  124
  133
  139
  142
  142
  140
  135
  127
  118
  108
  96
  84
  72
  61
  50
  41
  32
  25
  19
  14
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  82.6
  74.7
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6
  72.6

iClick Interactive Asia Group Limited is an online marketing technology company. The Company serves as an integrated cross-channel gateway that provides marketers ways to optimize their online marketing cycle. Its integrated data-driven solutions help marketers identify, engage and activate potential customers, monitor and measure the results of marketing campaigns, and create content catering to potential customers across different content distribution channels through both PC and mobile devices. Its solutions are enabled and supported by data set, sophisticated data analytics capabilities and cutting edge technologies. It collects data from a variety of channels, including through its proprietary tracking tools, from marketers, publishers and ad exchanges when managing marketing campaigns, and to a lesser extent, from third-party strategic partners.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  iClick Interactive Asia Group ADR (ICLK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

ICLK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ICLK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $125.258 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by iClick Interactive Asia Group ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of iClick Interactive Asia Group ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ICLK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 31.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ICLK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of iClick Interactive Asia Group ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of iClick Interactive Asia Group ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ICLK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 43.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $87 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ICLK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for iClick Interactive Asia Group ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for iClick Interactive Asia Group ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ICLK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ICLK are equal to 25.9%.

Life of production assets of 11.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in iClick Interactive Asia Group ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ICLK is equal to 22.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $119.984 million for iClick Interactive Asia Group ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.521 million for iClick Interactive Asia Group ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of iClick Interactive Asia Group ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Penny Stocks to Watch for October 2018   [Oct-01-18 08:24AM  Investopedia]
▶ Two Early Stage iClick Investors Depart Board of Directors   [Sep-05-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ iClick Interactive Strengthens Partnership with Baidu Inc.   [Feb-12-18 06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]

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