Intrinsic value of Intellicheck - IDN

Previous Close

$2.20

  Intrinsic Value

$0.90

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-59%

Previous close

$2.20

 
Intrinsic value

$0.90

 
Up/down potential

-59%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of IDN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  49.00
  44.60
  40.64
  37.08
  33.87
  30.98
  28.38
  26.05
  23.94
  22.05
  20.34
  18.81
  17.43
  16.18
  15.07
  14.06
  13.15
  12.34
  11.60
  10.94
  10.35
  9.81
  9.33
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
Revenue, $m
  5
  8
  11
  15
  20
  26
  34
  42
  53
  64
  77
  92
  108
  125
  144
  164
  186
  209
  233
  258
  285
  313
  342
  373
  405
  438
  472
  508
  545
  583
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  20
  24
  28
  33
  38
  43
  49
  55
  61
  68
  75
  82
  90
  98
  106
  115
  124
  133
  143
  153
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
Total operating expenses, $m
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  30
  34
  39
  44
  49
  54
  61
  67
  73
  80
  88
  95
  103
  111
  120
  129
  138
  148
  158
  168
Operating income, $m
  -5
  -3
  -1
  1
  5
  9
  15
  21
  28
  37
  47
  57
  69
  82
  95
  110
  126
  142
  160
  178
  198
  218
  240
  262
  285
  309
  334
  360
  387
  415
EBITDA, $m
  -4
  -2
  0
  3
  7
  12
  17
  24
  32
  41
  51
  62
  75
  88
  103
  119
  135
  153
  172
  192
  213
  235
  258
  281
  306
  332
  359
  387
  416
  446
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
Earnings before tax, $m
  -5
  -4
  -1
  1
  5
  9
  14
  20
  27
  35
  45
  55
  67
  79
  92
  106
  122
  138
  155
  173
  191
  211
  232
  253
  276
  299
  323
  348
  374
  401
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  29
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  68
  74
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
Net income, $m
  -5
  -4
  -1
  1
  3
  7
  10
  15
  20
  26
  33
  40
  49
  58
  67
  78
  89
  100
  113
  126
  140
  154
  169
  185
  201
  218
  236
  254
  273
  293

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  15
  22
  31
  43
  57
  75
  97
  122
  151
  184
  222
  264
  309
  360
  414
  472
  534
  600
  669
  743
  820
  900
  984
  1,072
  1,163
  1,258
  1,356
  1,459
  1,565
  1,676
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  15
  22
  31
  43
  57
  75
  97
  122
  151
  184
  222
  264
  309
  360
  414
  472
  534
  600
  669
  743
  820
  900
  984
  1,072
  1,163
  1,258
  1,356
  1,459
  1,565
  1,676
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.333
  0.364
  0.355
  0.349
  0.351
  0.347
  0.351
  0.344
  0.351
  0.348
  0.347
  0.348
  0.350
  0.347
  0.348
  0.347
  0.348
  0.348
  0.348
  0.347
  0.348
  0.348
  0.348
  0.348
  0.348
  0.348
  0.348
  0.348
  0.348
  0.348
Average production assets, $m
  7
  10
  13
  18
  25
  32
  42
  52
  65
  79
  95
  113
  133
  155
  178
  203
  230
  258
  288
  320
  353
  387
  424
  461
  501
  541
  584
  628
  674
  722
Working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -92
  -98
Total debt, $m
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  10
  14
  18
  23
  28
  34
  41
  49
  57
  66
  75
  85
  96
  107
  119
  132
  145
  159
  173
  188
  203
  219
  236
  253
  271
Total liabilities, $m
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  12
  16
  20
  25
  30
  36
  43
  50
  59
  67
  77
  87
  98
  109
  121
  134
  147
  160
  175
  190
  205
  221
  238
  255
  273
Total equity, $m
  13
  19
  26
  36
  48
  63
  81
  102
  126
  154
  186
  221
  259
  301
  346
  395
  447
  502
  560
  622
  686
  753
  824
  897
  973
  1,053
  1,135
  1,221
  1,310
  1,403
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  16
  23
  31
  43
  57
  75
  97
  122
  151
  184
  222
  264
  309
  360
  413
  472
  534
  600
  669
  743
  820
  900
  984
  1,072
  1,163
  1,258
  1,356
  1,459
  1,565
  1,676
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.050
  0.090
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837
  0.837

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -5
  -4
  -1
  1
  3
  7
  10
  15
  20
  26
  33
  40
  49
  58
  67
  78
  89
  100
  113
  126
  140
  154
  169
  185
  201
  218
  236
  254
  273
  293
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
Funds from operations, $m
  -4
  -2
  0
  3
  5
  9
  13
  18
  24
  30
  37
  45
  54
  64
  75
  86
  99
  112
  125
  140
  155
  171
  187
  205
  223
  241
  261
  281
  302
  324
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
Cash from operations, $m
  -4
  -2
  1
  3
  6
  10
  14
  19
  25
  32
  39
  48
  57
  67
  78
  90
  102
  115
  129
  144
  159
  175
  192
  210
  228
  247
  266
  287
  308
  330
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
Free cash flow, $m
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -2
  -1
  1
  4
  7
  10
  15
  20
  26
  32
  40
  48
  57
  67
  77
  88
  100
  113
  126
  139
  154
  169
  185
  201
  218
  236
  254
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  8
  8
  6
  5
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  10
  10
  7
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  22
  26
  33
  40
  48
  57
  67
  77
  88
  100
  112
  125
  139
  153
  168
  184
  200
  217
  235
  253
  272
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1
  -4
  -2
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -2
  1
  6
  12
  18
  25
  33
  41
  51
  61
  71
  83
  95
  107
  121
  134
  149
  164
  179
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1
  -4
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  71.2
  53.4
  43.6
  37.7
  33.9
  31.3
  29.7
  28.6
  28.0
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8
  27.8

Intellicheck, Inc., formerly Intellicheck Mobilisa, Inc., is a technology company. The Company is engaged in developing, integrating and marketing wireless technology and identity systems for various applications, including mobile and handheld access control, and security systems for the government, military and commercial markets. Its primary businesses include Identity Systems products, which include commercial applications of identity card reading and verification, and government sales of defense security and identity card applications, and the development of wireless security applications. Its products include the Fugitive Finder systems, advanced ID card access control products protecting military and federal locations, and ID-Check, a technology that reads, analyzes and verifies encoded data in magnetic stripes and barcodes on government-issue identifications from the United States and Canadian jurisdictions designed to cater the financial, hospitality and retail sectors.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Intellicheck (IDN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.9
Price to Sales 5.9
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -5.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -42.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -36.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -37.6%
Return On Total Capital -41.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.3%
Return On Equity -41.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.3%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 75%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.1%
EBITDA Margin -150%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -102.4%
Operating Margin -150%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -107.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -150%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -111.9%
Net Profit Margin -150%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -111.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

IDN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IDN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3.598296 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Intellicheck. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Intellicheck. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IDN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 49% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IDN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Intellicheck, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Intellicheck.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IDN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $8 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IDN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Intellicheck.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Intellicheck. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IDN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IDN are equal to 123.7%.

Life of production assets of 23.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Intellicheck operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IDN is equal to -16.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $16.009053 million for Intellicheck - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.632 million for Intellicheck is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Intellicheck at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Is Intellicheck Inc (NYSEMKT:IDN) A Financially Sound Company?   [Oct-16-18 12:58PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Intellicheck Announces Second Quarter Financial Results   [Aug-14-18 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Intellicheck Inc to Host Earnings Call   [02:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ What Is Intellicheck Incs (NYSEMKT:IDN) Share Price Doing?   [Jun-26-18 12:23PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Intellicheck Announces First Quarter Financial Results   [May-14-18 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Intellicheck Inc to Host Earnings Call   [12:15PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Intellicheck Inc to Host Earnings Call   [12:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Intellicheck Appoints New Board Member   [Jan-18-18 08:13AM  Business Wire]
▶ Intellicheck Announces Third Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Nov-14-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Intellicheck Inc to Host Earnings Call   [01:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Intellichecks Interim CEO Highlights Growth Opportunities   [Oct-20-17 08:13AM  Business Wire]
▶ Why Intellicheck Inc (IDN) Could Be A Buy   [Sep-19-17 09:21PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Intellichecks Law ID Now Available on the Nlets Network   [Aug-03-17 04:02PM  Business Wire]
▶ Intellicheck Mobilisa Announces Corporate Name Change   [May-22-17 04:13PM  Business Wire]

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