Intrinsic value of Integrated Device Technology - IDTI

Previous Close

$30.44

  Intrinsic Value

$15.61

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-49%

Previous close

$30.44

 
Intrinsic value

$15.61

 
Up/down potential

-49%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IDTI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.45
  2.60
  2.84
  3.06
  3.25
  3.43
  3.58
  3.72
  3.85
  3.97
  4.07
  4.16
  4.25
  4.32
  4.39
  4.45
  4.51
  4.56
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.76
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
Revenue, $m
  728
  747
  768
  792
  817
  845
  876
  908
  943
  981
  1,021
  1,063
  1,108
  1,156
  1,207
  1,261
  1,317
  1,377
  1,441
  1,508
  1,578
  1,652
  1,731
  1,813
  1,900
  1,991
  2,087
  2,188
  2,295
  2,407
  2,524
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  600
  617
  635
  654
  676
  699
  724
  750
  779
  809
  811
  845
  882
  921
  962
  1,005
  1,051
  1,099
  1,150
  1,204
  1,260
  1,320
  1,383
  1,449
  1,519
  1,592
  1,669
  1,751
  1,836
  1,926
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  618
  600
  617
  635
  654
  676
  699
  724
  750
  779
  809
  811
  845
  882
  921
  962
  1,005
  1,051
  1,099
  1,150
  1,204
  1,260
  1,320
  1,383
  1,449
  1,519
  1,592
  1,669
  1,751
  1,836
  1,926
Operating income, $m
  110
  146
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  252
  263
  274
  286
  299
  312
  327
  342
  358
  374
  392
  410
  430
  451
  472
  495
  519
  544
  571
  599
EBITDA, $m
  155
  195
  201
  207
  213
  221
  229
  237
  246
  256
  267
  278
  289
  302
  315
  329
  344
  360
  376
  394
  412
  432
  452
  474
  496
  520
  545
  572
  599
  629
  659
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
Earnings before tax, $m
  99
  136
  141
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  188
  196
  236
  246
  257
  268
  280
  292
  305
  319
  333
  349
  365
  382
  400
  419
  439
  460
  482
  505
  530
  556
Tax expense, $m
  -10
  37
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
Net income, $m
  110
  100
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  173
  180
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  243
  255
  267
  279
  292
  306
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
  406

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  406
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,184
  798
  821
  846
  873
  903
  936
  970
  1,008
  1,048
  1,090
  1,136
  1,184
  1,235
  1,289
  1,347
  1,407
  1,472
  1,539
  1,611
  1,686
  1,765
  1,849
  1,937
  2,030
  2,127
  2,230
  2,338
  2,452
  2,571
  2,697
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  778
  798
  821
  846
  873
  903
  936
  970
  1,008
  1,048
  1,090
  1,136
  1,184
  1,235
  1,289
  1,347
  1,407
  1,472
  1,539
  1,611
  1,686
  1,765
  1,849
  1,937
  2,030
  2,127
  2,230
  2,338
  2,452
  2,571
  2,697
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.936
  0.936
  0.935
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.937
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.935
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
Average production assets, $m
  196
  201
  207
  213
  220
  227
  236
  244
  254
  264
  275
  286
  298
  311
  325
  339
  354
  371
  388
  406
  424
  444
  466
  488
  511
  536
  562
  589
  617
  647
  679
Working capital, $m
  470
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  160
  167
  175
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
Total debt, $m
  286
  297
  308
  322
  336
  352
  369
  387
  407
  428
  451
  475
  500
  527
  555
  586
  618
  652
  687
  725
  765
  806
  850
  897
  946
  997
  1,051
  1,108
  1,168
  1,231
  1,297
Total liabilities, $m
  410
  421
  432
  446
  460
  476
  493
  511
  531
  552
  575
  599
  624
  651
  679
  710
  742
  776
  811
  849
  889
  930
  974
  1,021
  1,070
  1,121
  1,175
  1,232
  1,292
  1,355
  1,421
Total equity, $m
  774
  377
  388
  400
  413
  427
  442
  459
  477
  496
  516
  537
  560
  584
  610
  637
  666
  696
  728
  762
  797
  835
  875
  916
  960
  1,006
  1,055
  1,106
  1,160
  1,216
  1,276
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,184
  798
  820
  846
  873
  903
  935
  970
  1,008
  1,048
  1,091
  1,136
  1,184
  1,235
  1,289
  1,347
  1,408
  1,472
  1,539
  1,611
  1,686
  1,765
  1,849
  1,937
  2,030
  2,127
  2,230
  2,338
  2,452
  2,571
  2,697
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.370
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  110
  100
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  173
  180
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  243
  255
  267
  279
  292
  306
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
  406
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  45
  49
  49
  50
  50
  51
  52
  53
  53
  54
  55
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
Funds from operations, $m
  139
  148
  152
  156
  161
  166
  172
  178
  184
  191
  199
  198
  206
  215
  224
  234
  245
  256
  267
  280
  293
  306
  321
  336
  352
  368
  386
  405
  424
  445
  466
Change in working capital, $m
  -30
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  169
  147
  150
  154
  159
  164
  169
  175
  181
  188
  195
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
  250
  262
  274
  286
  300
  314
  328
  344
  360
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -78
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -82
  -85
  -90
Free cash flow, $m
  91
  124
  127
  130
  133
  137
  141
  145
  150
  155
  161
  158
  165
  171
  179
  186
  194
  203
  212
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  334
  350
  366
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -76
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -78
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  11
  135
  139
  143
  147
  152
  158
  164
  170
  176
  183
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
  342
  358
  375
  393
  413
  433
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -97
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  406
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  531
  128
  131
  134
  138
  143
  147
  152
  157
  163
  161
  167
  174
  182
  189
  197
  206
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  269
  282
  295
  309
  324
  340
  356
  373
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  509
  117
  114
  111
  107
  103
  99
  95
  90
  85
  76
  71
  66
  61
  56
  50
  45
  40
  35
  30
  25
  21
  18
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Integrated Device Technology, Inc. develops system-level solutions that optimize its customers' applications. The Company operates through two segments: the Communications, and the Computing, Consumer and Industrial. It offers products in radio frequency (RF), timing, wireless power transfer, serial switching, interfaces and sensing solutions. It offers a range of mixed-signal solutions for the communications, computing, consumer, automotive and industrial segments. These products are used for development in areas, such as fourth generation (4G) infrastructure, network communications, cloud datacenters and power management for computing and mobile devices. It offers solutions in designing communications, computing, consumer, automotive and industrial applications. It markets its products to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) through a range of channels, including direct sales, distributors and electronic manufacturing suppliers (EMSs).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Integrated Device Technology (IDTI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 36.9
Price to Sales 5.6
Price to Book 5.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24
Price to Free Cash Flow 29.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 18.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 37%
Total Debt to Equity 37%
Interest Coverage 34
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Return On Total Capital 11%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Return On Equity 15.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.5%
EBITDA Margin 20.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Operating Margin 15.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Net Profit Margin 15.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
Effective Tax Rate -10.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

IDTI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IDTI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $728 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Integrated Device Technology. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Integrated Device Technology. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IDTI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IDTI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Integrated Device Technology, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Integrated Device Technology.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IDTI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IDTI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Integrated Device Technology.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Integrated Device Technology. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IDTI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IDTI are equal to 26.9%.

Life of production assets of 11.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Integrated Device Technology operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IDTI is equal to 8.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $774 million for Integrated Device Technology - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 133.619 million for Integrated Device Technology is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Integrated Device Technology at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Qualcomm Slumps On Apple News; IDT Jumps On Earnings Beat   [04:51PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Integrated Device Tech tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Oct-30-17 05:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Integrated Device Technology Could Rally 25% From Here   [Oct-26-17 02:01PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ IDT Introduces Low Power UWB Motion Sensor   [Oct-25-17 02:44PM  Marketwired]
▶ Integrated Device Technology Sees IBD RS Rating Rise To 71   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Integrated Device Technology Earns Relative Strength Rating Upgrade   [Oct-03-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Stocks Flat But Amazon.com, These Chip Stocks Make Interesting Moves   [Sep-13-17 03:04PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Samsung Selects IDT Wireless Power for Galaxy Note8   [Sep-11-17 07:06AM  Marketwired]
▶ Integrated Device Tech beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Jul-31-17 09:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Intel Suppliers Boosted by iPhone Uncertainty   [Jul-12-17 03:37PM  Barrons.com]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for July 5th   [Jul-05-17 10:07AM  Zacks]
▶ 3 Chip Stocks Are Plays On iPhone 8-Led Wireless Charging Shift   [Jun-15-17 04:32PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ IBD 50 Chip Stock Cavium Initiated With Buy Rating   [Jun-09-17 04:26PM  Investor's Business Daily]
Financial statements of IDTI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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