Intrinsic value of IDEXX Laboratories - IDXX

Previous Close

$164.71

  Intrinsic Value

$41.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-75%

Previous close

$164.71

 
Intrinsic value

$41.09

 
Up/down potential

-75%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IDXX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 14.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.80
  9.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.62
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
Revenue, $m
  1,775
  1,935
  2,101
  2,274
  2,454
  2,641
  2,836
  3,038
  3,248
  3,466
  3,693
  3,930
  4,175
  4,431
  4,698
  4,976
  5,266
  5,568
  5,883
  6,213
  6,557
  6,917
  7,293
  7,686
  8,098
  8,529
  8,980
  9,452
  9,946
  10,464
  11,007
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,374
  1,491
  1,612
  1,738
  1,869
  2,006
  2,147
  2,295
  2,448
  2,607
  2,754
  2,927
  3,106
  3,293
  3,488
  3,691
  3,903
  4,124
  4,355
  4,596
  4,848
  5,112
  5,388
  5,676
  5,978
  6,294
  6,625
  6,972
  7,335
  7,716
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  171
  175
  180
  184
  189
  194
  199
  203
  209
  214
  219
  225
  230
  236
  242
  248
  254
  260
  267
  274
  280
  288
  295
  302
  310
  317
  325
  333
  342
  350
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,425
  1,545
  1,666
  1,792
  1,922
  2,058
  2,200
  2,346
  2,498
  2,657
  2,821
  2,973
  3,152
  3,336
  3,529
  3,730
  3,939
  4,157
  4,384
  4,622
  4,870
  5,128
  5,400
  5,683
  5,978
  6,288
  6,611
  6,950
  7,305
  7,677
  8,066
Operating income, $m
  350
  390
  435
  482
  532
  583
  637
  692
  750
  810
  873
  956
  1,024
  1,095
  1,169
  1,246
  1,327
  1,411
  1,499
  1,591
  1,687
  1,788
  1,893
  2,004
  2,119
  2,241
  2,368
  2,501
  2,641
  2,787
  2,941
EBITDA, $m
  428
  466
  516
  569
  624
  681
  740
  801
  866
  932
  1,002
  1,074
  1,150
  1,228
  1,310
  1,396
  1,485
  1,579
  1,676
  1,778
  1,885
  1,996
  2,113
  2,235
  2,363
  2,498
  2,638
  2,786
  2,941
  3,103
  3,273
Interest expense (income), $m
  32
  25
  21
  24
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  173
  183
  193
Earnings before tax, $m
  322
  364
  414
  458
  504
  552
  602
  653
  707
  763
  821
  900
  963
  1,029
  1,098
  1,170
  1,245
  1,323
  1,405
  1,490
  1,580
  1,674
  1,772
  1,875
  1,983
  2,095
  2,214
  2,338
  2,468
  2,605
  2,748
Tax expense, $m
  100
  98
  112
  124
  136
  149
  162
  176
  191
  206
  222
  243
  260
  278
  296
  316
  336
  357
  379
  402
  427
  452
  478
  506
  535
  566
  598
  631
  666
  703
  742
Net income, $m
  222
  266
  303
  335
  368
  403
  439
  477
  516
  557
  600
  657
  703
  751
  801
  854
  909
  966
  1,025
  1,088
  1,153
  1,222
  1,294
  1,369
  1,447
  1,530
  1,616
  1,707
  1,802
  1,902
  2,006

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  392
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,531
  1,242
  1,349
  1,460
  1,575
  1,695
  1,820
  1,950
  2,085
  2,225
  2,371
  2,522
  2,680
  2,844
  3,015
  3,194
  3,380
  3,574
  3,776
  3,988
  4,209
  4,440
  4,681
  4,933
  5,198
  5,474
  5,763
  6,067
  6,384
  6,717
  7,065
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,139
  1,242
  1,349
  1,460
  1,575
  1,695
  1,820
  1,950
  2,085
  2,225
  2,371
  2,522
  2,680
  2,844
  3,015
  3,194
  3,380
  3,574
  3,776
  3,988
  4,209
  4,440
  4,681
  4,933
  5,198
  5,474
  5,763
  6,067
  6,384
  6,717
  7,065
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.558
  1.558
  1.557
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
Average production assets, $m
  397
  431
  469
  507
  547
  589
  632
  677
  724
  773
  824
  876
  931
  988
  1,048
  1,110
  1,174
  1,242
  1,312
  1,385
  1,462
  1,542
  1,626
  1,714
  1,806
  1,902
  2,002
  2,108
  2,218
  2,334
  2,455
Working capital, $m
  -89
  141
  153
  166
  179
  193
  207
  222
  237
  253
  270
  287
  305
  323
  343
  363
  384
  406
  429
  454
  479
  505
  532
  561
  591
  623
  656
  690
  726
  764
  804
Total debt, $m
  1,110
  589
  685
  785
  889
  997
  1,109
  1,226
  1,347
  1,473
  1,605
  1,741
  1,883
  2,031
  2,185
  2,345
  2,513
  2,687
  2,870
  3,060
  3,259
  3,467
  3,684
  3,911
  4,149
  4,398
  4,658
  4,931
  5,217
  5,516
  5,830
Total liabilities, $m
  1,639
  1,118
  1,214
  1,314
  1,418
  1,526
  1,638
  1,755
  1,876
  2,002
  2,134
  2,270
  2,412
  2,560
  2,714
  2,874
  3,042
  3,216
  3,399
  3,589
  3,788
  3,996
  4,213
  4,440
  4,678
  4,927
  5,187
  5,460
  5,746
  6,045
  6,359
Total equity, $m
  -108
  124
  135
  146
  158
  170
  182
  195
  208
  222
  237
  252
  268
  284
  302
  319
  338
  357
  378
  399
  421
  444
  468
  493
  520
  547
  576
  607
  638
  672
  707
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,531
  1,242
  1,349
  1,460
  1,576
  1,696
  1,820
  1,950
  2,084
  2,224
  2,371
  2,522
  2,680
  2,844
  3,016
  3,193
  3,380
  3,573
  3,777
  3,988
  4,209
  4,440
  4,681
  4,933
  5,198
  5,474
  5,763
  6,067
  6,384
  6,717
  7,066
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -10.278
  4.740
  5.080
  5.380
  5.640
  5.880
  6.090
  6.290
  6.460
  6.620
  6.770
  6.900
  7.030
  7.140
  7.250
  7.340
  7.430
  7.520
  7.600
  7.670
  7.740
  7.810
  7.870
  7.930
  7.980
  8.030
  8.080
  8.130
  8.170
  8.210
  8.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.095
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  222
  266
  303
  335
  368
  403
  439
  477
  516
  557
  600
  657
  703
  751
  801
  854
  909
  966
  1,025
  1,088
  1,153
  1,222
  1,294
  1,369
  1,447
  1,530
  1,616
  1,707
  1,802
  1,902
  2,006
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  78
  76
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  109
  116
  122
  129
  118
  126
  134
  142
  150
  159
  168
  177
  187
  198
  208
  220
  232
  244
  257
  271
  285
  300
  315
  332
Funds from operations, $m
  338
  342
  384
  421
  460
  500
  542
  586
  632
  679
  729
  775
  829
  885
  943
  1,004
  1,067
  1,133
  1,203
  1,275
  1,351
  1,430
  1,513
  1,600
  1,691
  1,787
  1,887
  1,992
  2,102
  2,217
  2,338
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
Cash from operations, $m
  335
  330
  372
  408
  447
  487
  528
  572
  617
  663
  712
  758
  811
  866
  923
  983
  1,046
  1,111
  1,180
  1,251
  1,326
  1,404
  1,486
  1,572
  1,661
  1,755
  1,854
  1,957
  2,065
  2,179
  2,298
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -54
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -74
  -80
  -85
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -118
  -126
  -134
  -142
  -150
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -187
  -198
  -208
  -220
  -232
  -244
  -257
  -271
  -285
  -300
  -315
New CAPEX, $m
  -65
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -91
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -193
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -250
  -264
  -278
  -292
  -308
  -324
  -340
  -358
  -376
  -395
  -416
  -436
Free cash flow, $m
  244
  242
  276
  306
  338
  371
  405
  441
  478
  517
  557
  594
  638
  683
  730
  780
  831
  885
  942
  1,000
  1,062
  1,126
  1,194
  1,264
  1,338
  1,415
  1,496
  1,581
  1,670
  1,764
  1,862
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  38
  -129
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  167
  175
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
  238
  249
  260
  273
  286
  299
  314
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -266
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -218
  -129
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  167
  175
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
  238
  249
  260
  273
  286
  299
  314
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  26
  113
  372
  406
  442
  479
  518
  558
  599
  643
  688
  730
  780
  831
  884
  940
  999
  1,060
  1,124
  1,191
  1,261
  1,334
  1,411
  1,491
  1,576
  1,664
  1,757
  1,854
  1,956
  2,063
  2,175
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  24
  -232
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -120
  362
  395
  431
  467
  505
  545
  586
  629
  674
  715
  764
  815
  867
  923
  980
  1,041
  1,104
  1,170
  1,239
  1,311
  1,387
  1,466
  1,549
  1,636
  1,728
  1,824
  1,924
  2,030
  2,141
Discount rate, %
 
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -111
  310
  311
  307
  300
  290
  276
  260
  241
  221
  198
  176
  154
  133
  113
  94
  77
  61
  48
  37
  28
  20
  14
  10
  7
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. develops, manufactures and distributes products and provides services for the companion animal veterinary, livestock and poultry, dairy and water testing markets. The Company also sells a line of portable electrolytes and blood gas analyzers for the human point-of-care medical diagnostics market. Its segments include diagnostic and information technology-based products and services for the veterinary market, which the Company refers to as the Companion Animal Group; water quality products; diagnostic products and services for livestock and poultry health, which the Company refers to as Livestock, Poultry and Dairy, and Other operating segment, which combines and presents products for the human point-of-care medical diagnostics market with its pharmaceutical product line and its out-licensing arrangements. Its products and services include point-of-care veterinary diagnostic products, comprising instruments, consumables and rapid assay test kits, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 65.3
Price to Sales 8.2
Price to Book -134.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 43.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 53.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -21.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -462%
Total Debt to Equity -1027.8%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 16.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Return On Total Capital 22.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20%
Return On Equity -231.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 318.5%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.1%
EBITDA Margin 24.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.9%
Operating Margin 19.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Net Profit Margin 12.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Effective Tax Rate 31.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29%
Payout Ratio 0%

IDXX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IDXX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1775 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by IDEXX Laboratories. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of IDEXX Laboratories. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IDXX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.6%, whose default value for IDXX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of IDEXX Laboratories, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of IDEXX Laboratories.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IDXX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $167 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IDXX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for IDEXX Laboratories.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for IDEXX Laboratories. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IDXX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IDXX are equal to 22.3%.

Life of production assets of 7.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in IDEXX Laboratories operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IDXX is equal to 7.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-108 million for IDEXX Laboratories - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 87.305 million for IDEXX Laboratories is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of IDEXX Laboratories at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $14.4 billion.

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Financial statements of IDXX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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