Intrinsic value of IES Holdings - IESC

Previous Close

$17.64

  Intrinsic Value

$14.45

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-18%

Previous close

$17.64

 
Intrinsic value

$14.45

 
Up/down potential

-18%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of IESC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.60
  10.94
  10.35
  9.81
  9.33
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
Revenue, $m
  905
  1,004
  1,108
  1,216
  1,330
  1,448
  1,571
  1,699
  1,833
  1,971
  2,115
  2,265
  2,420
  2,582
  2,750
  2,925
  3,107
  3,296
  3,494
  3,700
  3,914
  4,138
  4,372
  4,616
  4,871
  5,138
  5,417
  5,708
  6,013
  6,333
Variable operating expenses, $m
  871
  966
  1,065
  1,169
  1,277
  1,390
  1,507
  1,630
  1,757
  1,889
  2,019
  2,161
  2,310
  2,464
  2,624
  2,791
  2,965
  3,146
  3,334
  3,531
  3,736
  3,949
  4,172
  4,405
  4,649
  4,903
  5,170
  5,448
  5,739
  6,044
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  871
  966
  1,065
  1,169
  1,277
  1,390
  1,507
  1,630
  1,757
  1,889
  2,019
  2,161
  2,310
  2,464
  2,624
  2,791
  2,965
  3,146
  3,334
  3,531
  3,736
  3,949
  4,172
  4,405
  4,649
  4,903
  5,170
  5,448
  5,739
  6,044
Operating income, $m
  33
  38
  43
  48
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
  82
  97
  103
  110
  118
  125
  133
  142
  150
  159
  169
  179
  189
  200
  211
  222
  234
  247
  260
  274
  289
EBITDA, $m
  48
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  90
  97
  104
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  154
  164
  174
  184
  195
  207
  219
  231
  244
  257
  271
  286
  301
  318
  334
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
Earnings before tax, $m
  32
  35
  38
  42
  46
  49
  53
  58
  62
  66
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  145
  152
  160
  169
  177
  186
  196
  206
  216
Tax expense, $m
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  58
Net income, $m
  23
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  473
  525
  580
  636
  696
  758
  822
  889
  959
  1,032
  1,107
  1,185
  1,266
  1,351
  1,439
  1,530
  1,626
  1,725
  1,828
  1,936
  2,048
  2,165
  2,288
  2,416
  2,549
  2,689
  2,834
  2,987
  3,147
  3,314
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  473
  525
  580
  636
  696
  758
  822
  889
  959
  1,032
  1,107
  1,185
  1,266
  1,351
  1,439
  1,530
  1,626
  1,725
  1,828
  1,936
  2,048
  2,165
  2,288
  2,416
  2,549
  2,689
  2,834
  2,987
  3,147
  3,314
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.913
  1.912
  1.910
  1.912
  1.911
  1.910
  1.911
  1.911
  1.911
  1.910
  1.911
  1.911
  1.912
  1.911
  1.911
  1.912
  1.911
  1.911
  1.911
  1.911
  1.911
  1.911
  1.911
  1.911
  1.911
  1.911
  1.911
  1.911
  1.911
  1.911
Average production assets, $m
  64
  71
  79
  86
  94
  103
  112
  121
  130
  140
  150
  161
  172
  183
  195
  208
  221
  234
  248
  263
  278
  294
  310
  328
  346
  365
  385
  405
  427
  450
Working capital, $m
  59
  65
  72
  79
  86
  94
  102
  110
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  168
  179
  190
  202
  214
  227
  240
  254
  269
  284
  300
  317
  334
  352
  371
  391
  412
Total debt, $m
  51
  75
  99
  125
  152
  179
  208
  239
  270
  303
  336
  372
  408
  446
  486
  527
  570
  615
  661
  710
  760
  813
  868
  925
  985
  1,048
  1,114
  1,183
  1,254
  1,330
Total liabilities, $m
  213
  236
  261
  286
  313
  341
  370
  400
  432
  464
  498
  533
  570
  608
  648
  689
  732
  776
  823
  871
  922
  974
  1,030
  1,087
  1,147
  1,210
  1,276
  1,344
  1,416
  1,491
Total equity, $m
  260
  289
  319
  350
  383
  417
  452
  489
  527
  567
  609
  652
  697
  743
  791
  842
  894
  949
  1,006
  1,065
  1,127
  1,191
  1,258
  1,329
  1,402
  1,479
  1,559
  1,643
  1,731
  1,823
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  473
  525
  580
  636
  696
  758
  822
  889
  959
  1,031
  1,107
  1,185
  1,267
  1,351
  1,439
  1,531
  1,626
  1,725
  1,829
  1,936
  2,049
  2,165
  2,288
  2,416
  2,549
  2,689
  2,835
  2,987
  3,147
  3,314
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.200
  0.260
  0.310
  0.360
  0.400
  0.430
  0.460
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  23
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Funds from operations, $m
  37
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  122
  128
  135
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  203
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Cash from operations, $m
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  61
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  86
  92
  97
  103
  108
  114
  121
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
Free cash flow, $m
  19
  21
  22
  24
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  39
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  18
  18
  19
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  17
  17
  16
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  16
  15
  15
  14
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.0
  98.3
  97.9
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
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IES Holdings, Inc., formerly Integrated Electrical Services, Inc., is a holding company that owns and manages diverse operating subsidiaries across a range of infrastructure-related end markets. The Company operates through four segments: Communications, Residential, Commercial & Industrial, and Infrastructure Solutions. The Communications segment provides network infrastructure services for data centers and other mission critical environments. The Residential segment provides electrical installation services for single-family housing and multi-family apartment complexes and cable television installations for residential and light commercial applications. The Commercial & Industrial segment provides electrical and mechanical design, construction, and maintenance services to the commercial and industrial markets. The Company's Infrastructure Solutions segment provides electro-mechanical solutions for industrial operations to domestic and international customers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  IES Holdings (IESC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 20.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 12.2%
Total Debt to Equity 12.2%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.5%
Return On Total Capital 5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.4%
Return On Equity 5.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.8%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
EBITDA Margin 3.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Operating Margin 2.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Net Profit Margin 1.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Effective Tax Rate 26.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -124.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

IESC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IESC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $810.744 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by IES Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of IES Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IESC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IESC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of IES Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of IES Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IESC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IESC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.8% for IES Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for IES Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IESC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IESC are equal to 7.1%.

Life of production assets of 9.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in IES Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IESC is equal to 6.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $233.433 million for IES Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.21 million for IES Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of IES Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ IES Holdings Reports Fiscal 2018 Third Quarter Results   [Aug-03-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ IES Residential Acquires Utah-Based Business   [Jul-31-18 09:03AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is IES Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:IESC) A Financially Sound Company?   [May-22-18 09:23AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ IES Holdings Reports Fiscal 2018 Second Quarter Results   [May-04-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ IES Holdings Acquires Azimuth Communications   [Apr-06-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Integrated Electrical Services posts 1Q loss   [Feb-06-18 05:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ Integrated Electrical Services posts 4Q profit   [08:55AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is IES Holdings Incs (IESC) ROE Of 62.70% Sustainable?   [Nov-28-17 01:06PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 7 Stock's Moving In Monday's After-Hours Session   [Nov-20-17 05:18PM  Benzinga]
▶ Integrated Electrical Services posts 3Q profit   [Aug-04-17 11:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Integrated Electrical Services posts 3Q profit   [08:39AM  Associated Press]
▶ IES Holdings Acquires NEXT Electric   [Jul-14-17 07:35AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to IES Holdings, Inc. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 02:39PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to IES Holdings, Inc. : June 19, 2017   [Jun-19-17 03:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Integrated Electrical Services posts 2Q profit   [May-05-17 08:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ IES Holdings Amends and Expands Credit Facility   [Apr-10-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Houston electromechanical company scoops up Cincinnati co.   [Mar-17-17 09:35AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Houston electromechanical company scoops up Cincinnati co.   [09:35AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Integrated Electrical Services posts 1Q profit   [Feb-08-17 06:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About Exactech, Inc. (EXAC)   [Dec-11-16 04:31AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Sonus Networks, Inc. (SONS) Going to Burn Investors?   [Dec-08-16 01:46PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Tontine Asset Managements Bets on Small-Caps Help Offset Losses   [Sep-26-16 07:30AM  at Insider Monkey]

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