Intrinsic value of iFresh - IFMK

Previous Close

$1.24

  Intrinsic Value

$0.80

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-36%

Previous close

$1.24

 
Intrinsic value

$0.80

 
Up/down potential

-36%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of IFMK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.50
  3.65
  3.78
  3.91
  4.02
  4.11
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
Revenue, $m
  141
  147
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  221
  232
  242
  254
  265
  278
  291
  305
  320
  335
  351
  368
  386
  405
  425
  446
  468
  491
  515
Variable operating expenses, $m
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  200
  208
  218
  228
  238
  250
  261
  274
  287
  300
  315
  330
  346
  363
  380
  399
  418
  439
  460
  483
  507
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  200
  208
  218
  228
  238
  250
  261
  274
  287
  300
  315
  330
  346
  363
  380
  399
  418
  439
  460
  483
  507
Operating income, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
EBITDA, $m
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Earnings before tax, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  51
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  184
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  51
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  184
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.765
  2.827
  2.815
  2.821
  2.780
  2.803
  2.781
  2.818
  2.812
  2.819
  2.789
  2.797
  2.795
  2.782
  2.791
  2.789
  2.808
  2.798
  2.798
  2.807
  2.792
  2.786
  2.788
  2.797
  2.793
  2.796
  2.805
  2.802
  2.806
  2.799
Average production assets, $m
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
Working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Total debt, $m
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  86
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  122
  130
  137
Total liabilities, $m
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  156
  163
Total equity, $m
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  51
  53
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  66
  70
  72
  75
  79
  82
  87
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  176
  184
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.350
  3.510
  3.670
  3.830
  3.990
  4.140
  4.300
  4.450
  4.590
  4.730
  4.870
  5.000
  5.130
  5.250
  5.370
  5.490
  5.600
  5.700
  5.800
  5.900
  5.990
  6.080
  6.170
  6.250
  6.330
  6.400
  6.470
  6.540
  6.610
  6.670
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
Funds from operations, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Free cash flow, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Discount rate, %
  12.20
  12.81
  13.45
  14.12
  14.83
  15.57
  16.35
  17.17
  18.02
  18.93
  19.87
  20.87
  21.91
  23.00
  24.16
  25.36
  26.63
  27.96
  29.36
  30.83
  32.37
  33.99
  35.69
  37.47
  39.35
  41.31
  43.38
  45.55
  47.83
  50.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.7

iFresh, Inc., formerly E-Compass Acquisition Corp., operates through its subsidiary, NYM Holding, Inc. (NYM). NYM is an Asian/Chinese grocery supermarket chain in the north-eastern United States providing food and other merchandise hard to find in mainstream grocery stores. As of December 31, 2016, NYM had eight retail supermarkets across New York, Massachusetts and Florida. As of December 31, 2016, NYM had two wholesale facilities. Its in-house wholesale businesses covers wholesale products and services both NYM retail supermarkets and external clients that range from wholesalers to retailing groceries and restaurants.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  iFresh (IFMK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 8.7
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 233.3%
Total Debt to Equity 250%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Total Capital 13.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.8%
Return On Equity 36.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 123.2%
Asset Turnover 3.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
EBITDA Margin 3.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Operating Margin 1.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Net Profit Margin 1.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

IFMK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IFMK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $136.688527 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by iFresh. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of iFresh. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IFMK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.2%, whose default value for IFMK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of iFresh, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of iFresh.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IFMK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IFMK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for iFresh.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for iFresh. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IFMK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IFMK are equal to 12.6%.

Life of production assets of 8.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in iFresh operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IFMK is equal to -1.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5.465476 million for iFresh - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 14.282 million for iFresh is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of iFresh at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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SFS Smart&Final St 6.70 13.45  str.buy
KR Kroger 30.03 31.05  hold
SVU Supervalu 32.49 259.43  str.buy
VLGEA Village Super 26.26 38.00  buy
SFM Sprouts Farmer 27.50 30.06  buy

COMPANY NEWS

▶ iFresh, Inc. Announces Acceptance of UnionPay at its Stores   [Oct-04-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ iFresh, Inc. Issues Statement on Recent Stock Volatility   [Aug-01-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ IFMK: iFresh Reports Fiscal Year Results; Net Sales +4.4%   [Jul-09-18 09:45AM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ iFresh Inc. Reports Fiscal Year 2018 Financial Results   [Jul-05-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ IFMK: iFresh Moves Forward with Programs to Generate Organic Sales Growth   [May-29-18 03:00PM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ Two iFresh Supermarkets Celebrate 30th Anniversaries   [May-17-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ iFresh Offers Western Union Services at Four Locations   [May-15-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is iFresh Incs (NASDAQ:IFMK) CEO Paid At A Competitive Rate?   [May-02-18 02:18PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Is iFresh Inc (NASDAQ:IFMK) A Financially Sound Company?   [Apr-13-18 08:55AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ iFresh Announces Appointment of New CFO and New Director   [Apr-02-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ IFMK: Zacks Initiates Coverage of iFresh   [Mar-26-18 11:30AM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ iFresh Announces Exclusive Agreement with Sunray Venus   [Jan-03-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CEO of iFresh Wins Business Pioneer Award   [Dec-06-17 10:12AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ iFresh Announces Management Agreements with 4 Stores   [Dec-04-17 08:18AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ iFresh Announces New Managed Stores in Houston and El Monte   [Nov-27-17 08:23AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ iFresh Announces Appointment of New Director   [Nov-17-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ iFresh Announces Exclusive Agreement with Spring Farm WPB   [Oct-30-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ iFresh to Open New Store in Houston   [Oct-24-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ iFresh Announces Exclusive Agreement with Dragon Seeds LLC   [Oct-19-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ iFresh Acquires Two New Stores   [Oct-03-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Did iFresh Inc (IFMK) Create Value For Shareholders?   [Sep-21-17 02:27PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ iFresh Acquires Two New Stores   [Jul-14-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ iFresh, Inc. Reports Fiscal 2017 Financial Results   [Jun-30-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ iFresh Appoints New Chief Financial Officer   [May-19-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ iFresh Appoints New Independent Director   [May-10-17 02:27PM  GlobeNewswire]

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