Intrinsic value of Intercontinental Hotels Group - IHG

Previous Close

$60.66

  Intrinsic Value

$14.67

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-76%

Previous close

$60.66

 
Intrinsic value

$14.67

 
Up/down potential

-76%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of IHG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 11.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
Revenue, $m
  4,615
  4,903
  5,204
  5,518
  5,844
  6,185
  6,540
  6,911
  7,298
  7,702
  8,125
  8,567
  9,029
  9,513
  10,019
  10,549
  11,104
  11,685
  12,293
  12,931
  13,600
  14,301
  15,035
  15,806
  16,614
  17,461
  18,350
  19,283
  20,261
  21,287
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,786
  4,016
  4,255
  4,504
  4,764
  5,035
  5,318
  5,613
  5,921
  6,243
  6,465
  6,816
  7,184
  7,569
  7,971
  8,393
  8,834
  9,297
  9,781
  10,289
  10,821
  11,378
  11,963
  12,576
  13,219
  13,893
  14,600
  15,342
  16,120
  16,937
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,786
  4,016
  4,255
  4,504
  4,764
  5,035
  5,318
  5,613
  5,921
  6,243
  6,465
  6,816
  7,184
  7,569
  7,971
  8,393
  8,834
  9,297
  9,781
  10,289
  10,821
  11,378
  11,963
  12,576
  13,219
  13,893
  14,600
  15,342
  16,120
  16,937
Operating income, $m
  829
  888
  949
  1,013
  1,080
  1,150
  1,222
  1,298
  1,377
  1,460
  1,660
  1,751
  1,845
  1,944
  2,047
  2,156
  2,269
  2,388
  2,512
  2,643
  2,779
  2,922
  3,073
  3,230
  3,395
  3,568
  3,750
  3,940
  4,140
  4,350
EBITDA, $m
  1,148
  1,220
  1,295
  1,373
  1,454
  1,538
  1,627
  1,719
  1,815
  1,916
  2,021
  2,131
  2,246
  2,366
  2,492
  2,624
  2,762
  2,907
  3,058
  3,217
  3,383
  3,557
  3,740
  3,932
  4,133
  4,344
  4,565
  4,797
  5,040
  5,295
Interest expense (income), $m
  80
  121
  54
  66
  79
  92
  106
  120
  135
  151
  167
  184
  202
  220
  240
  260
  281
  304
  327
  351
  377
  404
  432
  461
  492
  525
  559
  594
  632
  671
  712
Earnings before tax, $m
  707
  834
  883
  934
  988
  1,044
  1,102
  1,163
  1,226
  1,293
  1,476
  1,549
  1,625
  1,704
  1,787
  1,874
  1,965
  2,061
  2,161
  2,266
  2,375
  2,490
  2,611
  2,738
  2,870
  3,010
  3,156
  3,309
  3,470
  3,638
Tax expense, $m
  191
  225
  238
  252
  267
  282
  298
  314
  331
  349
  399
  418
  439
  460
  483
  506
  531
  556
  583
  612
  641
  672
  705
  739
  775
  813
  852
  893
  937
  982
Net income, $m
  516
  608
  644
  682
  721
  762
  804
  849
  895
  944
  1,078
  1,131
  1,186
  1,244
  1,305
  1,368
  1,435
  1,504
  1,577
  1,654
  1,734
  1,818
  1,906
  1,999
  2,095
  2,197
  2,304
  2,415
  2,533
  2,656

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,992
  4,242
  4,502
  4,773
  5,055
  5,350
  5,657
  5,978
  6,313
  6,663
  7,029
  7,411
  7,811
  8,229
  8,667
  9,125
  9,605
  10,108
  10,634
  11,186
  11,765
  12,371
  13,006
  13,673
  14,372
  15,105
  15,874
  16,680
  17,527
  18,415
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,992
  4,242
  4,502
  4,773
  5,055
  5,350
  5,657
  5,978
  6,313
  6,663
  7,029
  7,411
  7,811
  8,229
  8,667
  9,125
  9,605
  10,108
  10,634
  11,186
  11,765
  12,371
  13,006
  13,673
  14,372
  15,105
  15,874
  16,680
  17,527
  18,415
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
  1.156
Average production assets, $m
  1,024
  1,089
  1,155
  1,225
  1,297
  1,373
  1,452
  1,534
  1,620
  1,710
  1,804
  1,902
  2,004
  2,112
  2,224
  2,342
  2,465
  2,594
  2,729
  2,871
  3,019
  3,175
  3,338
  3,509
  3,688
  3,876
  4,074
  4,281
  4,498
  4,726
Working capital, $m
  -618
  -657
  -697
  -739
  -783
  -829
  -876
  -926
  -978
  -1,032
  -1,089
  -1,148
  -1,210
  -1,275
  -1,343
  -1,414
  -1,488
  -1,566
  -1,647
  -1,733
  -1,822
  -1,916
  -2,015
  -2,118
  -2,226
  -2,340
  -2,459
  -2,584
  -2,715
  -2,852
Total debt, $m
  1,004
  1,229
  1,463
  1,707
  1,961
  2,226
  2,503
  2,791
  3,093
  3,408
  3,737
  4,081
  4,441
  4,817
  5,211
  5,624
  6,056
  6,508
  6,982
  7,479
  7,999
  8,545
  9,117
  9,717
  10,346
  11,005
  11,697
  12,423
  13,185
  13,984
Total liabilities, $m
  3,593
  3,818
  4,052
  4,296
  4,550
  4,815
  5,092
  5,380
  5,682
  5,997
  6,326
  6,670
  7,030
  7,406
  7,800
  8,213
  8,645
  9,097
  9,571
  10,068
  10,588
  11,134
  11,706
  12,306
  12,935
  13,594
  14,286
  15,012
  15,774
  16,573
Total equity, $m
  399
  424
  450
  477
  506
  535
  566
  598
  631
  666
  703
  741
  781
  823
  867
  913
  961
  1,011
  1,063
  1,119
  1,176
  1,237
  1,301
  1,367
  1,437
  1,510
  1,587
  1,668
  1,753
  1,841
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,992
  4,242
  4,502
  4,773
  5,056
  5,350
  5,658
  5,978
  6,313
  6,663
  7,029
  7,411
  7,811
  8,229
  8,667
  9,126
  9,606
  10,108
  10,634
  11,187
  11,764
  12,371
  13,007
  13,673
  14,372
  15,104
  15,873
  16,680
  17,527
  18,414
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.510
  2.900
  3.250
  3.580
  3.880
  4.160
  4.420
  4.670
  4.900
  5.110
  5.320
  5.510
  5.690
  5.850
  6.010
  6.160
  6.300
  6.440
  6.570
  6.690
  6.800
  6.910
  7.010
  7.110
  7.200
  7.290
  7.370
  7.450
  7.520
  7.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  516
  608
  644
  682
  721
  762
  804
  849
  895
  944
  1,078
  1,131
  1,186
  1,244
  1,305
  1,368
  1,435
  1,504
  1,577
  1,654
  1,734
  1,818
  1,906
  1,999
  2,095
  2,197
  2,304
  2,415
  2,533
  2,656
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  319
  332
  345
  359
  374
  389
  405
  421
  438
  456
  361
  380
  401
  422
  445
  468
  493
  519
  546
  574
  604
  635
  668
  702
  738
  775
  815
  856
  900
  945
Funds from operations, $m
  835
  940
  990
  1,041
  1,095
  1,151
  1,209
  1,270
  1,334
  1,400
  1,439
  1,511
  1,587
  1,666
  1,750
  1,837
  1,928
  2,023
  2,123
  2,228
  2,338
  2,453
  2,574
  2,700
  2,833
  2,972
  3,118
  3,272
  3,432
  3,601
Change in working capital, $m
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
Cash from operations, $m
  873
  979
  1,030
  1,083
  1,139
  1,196
  1,257
  1,320
  1,385
  1,454
  1,495
  1,570
  1,649
  1,731
  1,817
  1,908
  2,002
  2,101
  2,205
  2,313
  2,427
  2,547
  2,672
  2,804
  2,941
  3,086
  3,237
  3,397
  3,563
  3,739
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -193
  -205
  -218
  -231
  -245
  -259
  -275
  -290
  -307
  -324
  -342
  -361
  -380
  -401
  -422
  -445
  -468
  -493
  -519
  -546
  -574
  -604
  -635
  -668
  -702
  -738
  -775
  -815
  -856
  -900
New CAPEX, $m
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -148
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -254
  -269
  -285
  -301
  -317
  -335
  -354
  -372
  -393
  -414
  -436
  -459
  -483
  -508
  -534
  -563
  -591
  -622
  -654
  -688
  -722
  -760
  -798
  -839
  -881
  -926
  -972
  -1,022
  -1,073
  -1,128
Free cash flow, $m
  619
  710
  746
  783
  821
  861
  903
  947
  993
  1,040
  1,059
  1,111
  1,166
  1,223
  1,283
  1,345
  1,411
  1,479
  1,551
  1,626
  1,705
  1,787
  1,874
  1,965
  2,060
  2,160
  2,265
  2,375
  2,490
  2,611
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1,245
  225
  234
  244
  254
  265
  277
  289
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  376
  394
  412
  432
  452
  474
  497
  521
  546
  572
  600
  629
  660
  692
  726
  762
  799
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  968
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -277
  225
  234
  244
  254
  265
  277
  289
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  376
  394
  412
  432
  452
  474
  497
  521
  546
  572
  600
  629
  660
  692
  726
  762
  799
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  342
  935
  980
  1,027
  1,075
  1,126
  1,180
  1,236
  1,294
  1,355
  1,388
  1,456
  1,526
  1,599
  1,677
  1,758
  1,842
  1,931
  2,025
  2,123
  2,225
  2,333
  2,446
  2,565
  2,689
  2,820
  2,957
  3,101
  3,252
  3,410
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1,484
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -1,143
  910
  954
  999
  1,047
  1,097
  1,149
  1,204
  1,261
  1,320
  1,352
  1,417
  1,486
  1,558
  1,633
  1,712
  1,794
  1,881
  1,972
  2,068
  2,168
  2,272
  2,383
  2,498
  2,619
  2,747
  2,880
  3,020
  3,167
  3,321
Discount rate, %
  9.30
  9.77
  10.25
  10.77
  11.30
  11.87
  12.46
  13.09
  13.74
  14.43
  15.15
  15.91
  16.70
  17.54
  18.41
  19.33
  20.30
  21.32
  22.38
  23.50
  24.68
  25.91
  27.20
  28.57
  29.99
  31.49
  33.07
  34.72
  36.46
  38.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -1,045
  755
  712
  664
  613
  560
  505
  450
  396
  343
  286
  241
  200
  162
  129
  101
  78
  58
  42
  30
  21
  14
  9
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC is a hotel company. The Company franchises its brands to, and manages hotels on behalf of, third-party hotel owners. Its segments include The Americas; Europe; Asia, Middle East and Africa (AMEA); Greater China, and Central. It operates a portfolio of hotel brands, including InterContinental, HUALUXE, Kimpton, Crowne Plaza, Hotel Indigo, EVEN Hotels, Holiday Inn, Holiday Inn Express, Staybridge Suites Hotels, Holiday Inn Resort, Holiday Inn Club Vacations and Candlewood Suites Hotels. As of December 31, 2016, The Americas pipeline totaled 945 hotels (102,451 rooms). As of December 31, 2016, the Europe pipeline totaled 137 hotels (23,954 rooms). As of December 31, 2016, the AMEA pipeline totaled 149 hotels (39,643 rooms). As of December 31, 2016, the Greater China pipeline totaled 239 hotels (64,028 rooms). As of April 21, 2017, it had 5,200 hotels and 777,000 rooms in its system. As of April 21, 2017, it operated in over 100 countries globally.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.7
Price to Sales 6.7
Price to Book -15
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 6.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -209.4%
Total Debt to Equity -223.2%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 14.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
Return On Total Capital 28.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.5%
Return On Equity -180.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -288.4%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.6%
EBITDA Margin 44.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.1%
Operating Margin 39.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 34.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.4%
Net Profit Margin 24.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.7%
Effective Tax Rate 29.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Payout Ratio 408.9%

IHG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IHG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4337 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Intercontinental Hotels Group. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Intercontinental Hotels Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IHG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.3%, whose default value for IHG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Intercontinental Hotels Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Intercontinental Hotels Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IHG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IHG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Intercontinental Hotels Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Intercontinental Hotels Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IHG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IHG are equal to 22.2%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Intercontinental Hotels Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IHG is equal to -13.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-1085 million for Intercontinental Hotels Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 182.011 million for Intercontinental Hotels Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Intercontinental Hotels Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $11.0 billion.

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