Intrinsic value of IntriCon - IIN

Previous Close

$22.70

  Intrinsic Value

$13.63

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-40%

Previous close

$22.70

 
Intrinsic value

$13.63

 
Up/down potential

-40%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IIN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.86
  50.00
  45.50
  41.45
  37.81
  34.52
  31.57
  28.91
  26.52
  24.37
  22.43
  20.69
  19.12
  17.71
  16.44
  15.29
  14.27
  13.34
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
Revenue, $m
  68
  102
  148
  210
  289
  389
  512
  660
  835
  1,039
  1,272
  1,535
  1,828
  2,152
  2,506
  2,889
  3,301
  3,742
  4,210
  4,704
  5,225
  5,773
  6,346
  6,944
  7,568
  8,218
  8,895
  9,598
  10,329
  11,089
  11,878
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  97
  141
  198
  273
  367
  482
  621
  786
  977
  1,196
  1,442
  1,718
  2,023
  2,355
  2,715
  3,103
  3,516
  3,956
  4,421
  4,911
  5,425
  5,964
  6,526
  7,113
  7,724
  8,359
  9,020
  9,707
  10,421
  11,163
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  70
  97
  141
  198
  273
  367
  482
  621
  786
  977
  1,196
  1,442
  1,718
  2,023
  2,355
  2,715
  3,103
  3,516
  3,956
  4,421
  4,911
  5,425
  5,964
  6,526
  7,113
  7,724
  8,359
  9,020
  9,707
  10,421
  11,163
Operating income, $m
  -2
  5
  8
  12
  16
  22
  30
  39
  49
  61
  75
  92
  110
  130
  151
  174
  199
  225
  253
  283
  314
  347
  382
  418
  455
  495
  535
  578
  622
  667
  715
EBITDA, $m
  0
  7
  11
  15
  21
  28
  37
  48
  61
  76
  93
  112
  133
  157
  183
  211
  241
  273
  307
  343
  381
  421
  462
  506
  551
  599
  648
  699
  753
  808
  865
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  2
  4
  6
  8
  11
  15
  20
  26
  32
  40
  48
  58
  68
  79
  92
  105
  119
  134
  150
  167
  184
  203
  222
  242
  263
  284
  307
  331
  355
Earnings before tax, $m
  -3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  18
  23
  29
  36
  43
  53
  62
  72
  83
  95
  107
  120
  134
  149
  165
  181
  198
  215
  234
  253
  272
  293
  314
  337
  360
Tax expense, $m
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  22
  26
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
Net income, $m
  -5
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  17
  21
  26
  32
  38
  45
  53
  60
  69
  78
  88
  98
  109
  120
  132
  144
  157
  171
  184
  199
  214
  230
  246
  263

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  44
  65
  94
  133
  183
  246
  324
  418
  528
  657
  804
  971
  1,156
  1,361
  1,585
  1,827
  2,088
  2,367
  2,663
  2,976
  3,305
  3,651
  4,014
  4,392
  4,787
  5,198
  5,626
  6,071
  6,533
  7,014
  7,513
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  43
  65
  94
  133
  183
  246
  324
  418
  528
  657
  804
  971
  1,156
  1,361
  1,585
  1,827
  2,088
  2,367
  2,663
  2,976
  3,305
  3,651
  4,014
  4,392
  4,787
  5,198
  5,626
  6,071
  6,533
  7,014
  7,513
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.581
  1.569
  1.574
  1.579
  1.579
  1.581
  1.580
  1.579
  1.581
  1.581
  1.582
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
  1.581
Average production assets, $m
  8
  12
  18
  25
  34
  46
  60
  78
  99
  123
  150
  181
  216
  254
  296
  341
  390
  442
  497
  555
  617
  681
  749
  819
  893
  970
  1,050
  1,133
  1,219
  1,308
  1,402
Working capital, $m
  8
  13
  20
  28
  38
  51
  68
  87
  110
  137
  168
  203
  241
  284
  331
  381
  436
  494
  556
  621
  690
  762
  838
  917
  999
  1,085
  1,174
  1,267
  1,363
  1,464
  1,568
Total debt, $m
  12
  23
  39
  61
  89
  124
  168
  220
  282
  354
  436
  529
  632
  747
  871
  1,007
  1,152
  1,308
  1,473
  1,647
  1,831
  2,024
  2,227
  2,438
  2,658
  2,888
  3,126
  3,375
  3,633
  3,901
  4,179
Total liabilities, $m
  25
  36
  52
  74
  102
  137
  181
  233
  295
  367
  449
  542
  645
  760
  884
  1,020
  1,165
  1,321
  1,486
  1,660
  1,844
  2,037
  2,240
  2,451
  2,671
  2,901
  3,139
  3,388
  3,646
  3,914
  4,192
Total equity, $m
  19
  29
  41
  59
  81
  109
  143
  185
  233
  290
  356
  429
  511
  602
  701
  808
  923
  1,046
  1,177
  1,315
  1,461
  1,614
  1,774
  1,941
  2,116
  2,298
  2,487
  2,683
  2,888
  3,100
  3,321
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  44
  65
  93
  133
  183
  246
  324
  418
  528
  657
  805
  971
  1,156
  1,362
  1,585
  1,828
  2,088
  2,367
  2,663
  2,975
  3,305
  3,651
  4,014
  4,392
  4,787
  5,199
  5,626
  6,071
  6,534
  7,014
  7,513
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.632
  0.810
  0.950
  1.040
  1.100
  1.140
  1.170
  1.190
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.419
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -5
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  17
  21
  26
  32
  38
  45
  53
  60
  69
  78
  88
  98
  109
  120
  132
  144
  157
  171
  184
  199
  214
  230
  246
  263
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  12
  14
  17
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  42
  47
  53
  60
  66
  73
  81
  88
  96
  104
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
Funds from operations, $m
  1
  5
  7
  10
  13
  16
  21
  27
  33
  40
  49
  58
  68
  80
  92
  106
  120
  135
  151
  169
  186
  205
  225
  245
  267
  289
  312
  336
  361
  387
  413
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  20
  23
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  10
  14
  18
  23
  30
  37
  46
  55
  66
  77
  90
  103
  118
  133
  149
  166
  184
  203
  222
  243
  264
  286
  309
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -53
  -60
  -66
  -73
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -104
  -113
  -122
  -131
  -141
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -5
  -6
  -9
  -12
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -29
  -35
  -40
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -69
  -77
  -86
  -94
  -102
  -111
  -121
  -131
  -141
  -152
  -162
  -173
  -184
  -196
  -208
  -221
  -234
Free cash flow, $m
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -23
  -22
  -20
  -17
  -13
  -9
  -4
  2
  8
  15
  22
  30
  38
  47
  56
  66
  75
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  12
  16
  22
  28
  35
  43
  52
  62
  72
  82
  93
  104
  114
  125
  135
  145
  155
  165
  175
  184
  193
  202
  211
  220
  229
  239
  248
  258
  268
  279
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  7
  9
  11
  14
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  34
  35
  37
  38
  38
  38
  37
  35
  33
  30
  26
  21
  16
  10
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  19
  25
  33
  42
  53
  64
  76
  90
  103
  116
  128
  141
  152
  163
  173
  182
  190
  198
  205
  210
  214
  218
  221
  224
  229
  239
  248
  258
  268
  279
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  15
  19
  25
  32
  41
  50
  60
  70
  82
  93
  104
  116
  128
  140
  151
  163
  174
  185
  196
  206
  216
  226
  237
  247
  260
  277
  295
  314
  334
  354
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -22
  -28
  -34
  -41
  -49
  -57
  -65
  -74
  -82
  -91
  -99
  -107
  -115
  -123
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -189
  -197
  -204
  -212
  -221
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  5
  6
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  25
  28
  30
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  78
  88
  99
  110
  121
  133
Discount rate, %
 
  8.50
  8.93
  9.37
  9.84
  10.33
  10.85
  11.39
  11.96
  12.56
  13.19
  13.85
  14.54
  15.26
  16.03
  16.83
  17.67
  18.55
  19.48
  20.46
  21.48
  22.55
  23.68
  24.86
  26.11
  27.41
  28.78
  30.22
  31.73
  33.32
  34.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  8
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.0
  92.5
  89.5
  86.9
  84.7
  82.7
  81.0
  79.6
  78.3
  77.2
  76.3
  75.5
  74.9
  74.3
  73.8
  73.4
  73.0
  72.8
  72.5
  72.4
  72.2
  72.2
  72.1
  72.1
  72.1
  72.1
  72.1
  72.1
  72.1
  72.1

IntriCon Corporation is engaged in designing, developing, engineering, manufacturing and distributing body-worn devices. The Company operates through body-worn device segment. The Company serves the body-worn device market by designing, developing, engineering and manufacturing micro-miniature products, microelectronics, micro-mechanical assemblies, complete assemblies and software solutions, primarily for the value hearing health market, the medical bio-telemetry market and the professional audio communication market. The Company has facilities in Minnesota, California, Singapore, Indonesia, the United Kingdom and Germany, and operates through its subsidiaries. The Company's product offering includes a hearing aid discount program for health plans. This program is available around the nation to health insurers, including employer-sponsored, individual and Medicare plans. The Company also has various international value hearing aid (VHA) initiatives.


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FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  IntriCon (IIN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -31
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 8.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow -77.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 52.6%
Total Debt to Equity 63.2%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -9.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Return On Total Capital -16.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0%
Return On Equity -26.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.2%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Operating Margin -2.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -4.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Net Profit Margin -7.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

IIN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IIN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $68 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by IntriCon. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of IntriCon. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IIN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 50% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.5%, whose default value for IIN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of IntriCon, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of IntriCon.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IIN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IIN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.1% for IntriCon.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for IntriCon. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IIN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IIN are equal to 11.8%.

Life of production assets of 9.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in IntriCon operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IIN is equal to 13.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $19 million for IntriCon - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 6.869 million for IntriCon is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of IntriCon at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ OSI Systems (OSIS) Jumps: Stock Rises 5.9%   [Jan-17-18 08:43AM  Zacks]
▶ IntriCon Completes Acquisition of Hearing Help Express   [Dec-18-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Intricon Joins Elite List Of Stocks With 95-Plus Composite Rating   [Dec-01-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Intricon Corp. : November 28, 2017   [Nov-28-17 12:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ IntriCon Reports 2017 Third-Quarter Results   [Nov-06-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ IntriCon Reports 2017 Second-Quarter Results   [Aug-02-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Intricon Corp. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ IntriCon Reports 2017 First-Quarter Results   [Apr-25-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ IntriCon Reports 2016 Fourth-Quarter Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Intricon Corp. : December 8, 2016   [Dec-08-16 12:39PM  Capital Cube]
▶ IntriCon Reports 2016 Third-Quarter Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ IntriCon Reports 2016 Second-Quarter Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Royal Bank of Scotland in Fridays 52-Week Low Club   [Jul-01-16 04:04PM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
▶ IntriCon Reports Preliminary Second-Quarter Results   [Jun-30-16 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ IntriCon Prices Common Stock Offering   [May-13-16 09:16AM  Business Wire]
▶ IntriCon Reports 2016 First-Quarter Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ IntriCon Amends Credit Facilities   [04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ IntriCon Appoints New Independent Director   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ IntriCon Reports 2015 Third-Quarter Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ IntriCon Acquires PC Werth Ltd   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ IntriCon Secures National Health Service Product Approval   [Sep-17  09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ 10-Q for Intricon Corp.   [Aug-15  08:10PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ IntriCon Reports 2015 Second-Quarter Results   [04:00PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of IIN
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