Intrinsic value of Innovative Industrial Properties - IIPR

Previous Close

$47.64

  Intrinsic Value

$2.71

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-94%

Previous close

$47.64

 
Intrinsic value

$2.71

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of IIPR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  10
  16
  24
  34
  49
  67
  90
  118
  151
  191
  238
  290
  350
  417
  490
  570
  656
  749
  849
  954
  1,066
  1,183
  1,306
  1,435
  1,570
  1,711
  1,857
  2,009
  2,167
  2,332
Variable operating expenses, $m
  46
  71
  107
  155
  219
  301
  403
  530
  682
  861
  1,069
  1,307
  1,576
  1,875
  2,204
  2,564
  2,954
  3,372
  3,819
  4,294
  4,796
  5,324
  5,879
  6,459
  7,065
  7,698
  8,356
  9,041
  9,753
  10,494
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  46
  71
  107
  155
  219
  301
  403
  530
  682
  861
  1,069
  1,307
  1,576
  1,875
  2,204
  2,564
  2,954
  3,372
  3,819
  4,294
  4,796
  5,324
  5,879
  6,459
  7,065
  7,698
  8,356
  9,041
  9,753
  10,494
Operating income, $m
  -36
  -56
  -83
  -121
  -170
  -234
  -314
  -412
  -530
  -670
  -832
  -1,017
  -1,225
  -1,458
  -1,714
  -1,994
  -2,297
  -2,623
  -2,970
  -3,340
  -3,730
  -4,141
  -4,572
  -5,024
  -5,495
  -5,987
  -6,499
  -7,032
  -7,586
  -8,162
EBITDA, $m
  -33
  -51
  -77
  -111
  -157
  -216
  -289
  -380
  -489
  -618
  -767
  -938
  -1,130
  -1,345
  -1,581
  -1,839
  -2,119
  -2,419
  -2,740
  -3,080
  -3,440
  -3,819
  -4,217
  -4,634
  -5,069
  -5,522
  -5,995
  -6,486
  -6,997
  -7,528
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
Earnings before tax, $m
  -36
  -56
  -83
  -120
  -170
  -234
  -314
  -412
  -530
  -669
  -831
  -1,016
  -1,224
  -1,457
  -1,713
  -1,993
  -2,295
  -2,620
  -2,968
  -3,337
  -3,727
  -4,137
  -4,568
  -5,019
  -5,490
  -5,982
  -6,493
  -7,025
  -7,579
  -8,154
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -36
  -56
  -83
  -120
  -170
  -234
  -314
  -412
  -530
  -669
  -831
  -1,016
  -1,224
  -1,457
  -1,713
  -1,993
  -2,295
  -2,620
  -2,968
  -3,337
  -3,727
  -4,137
  -4,568
  -5,019
  -5,490
  -5,982
  -6,493
  -7,025
  -7,579
  -8,154

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  85
  131
  196
  285
  402
  552
  741
  973
  1,252
  1,581
  1,964
  2,401
  2,894
  3,443
  4,048
  4,709
  5,424
  6,193
  7,014
  7,886
  8,807
  9,778
  10,796
  11,862
  12,976
  14,137
  15,346
  16,605
  17,913
  19,272
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  85
  131
  196
  285
  402
  552
  741
  973
  1,252
  1,581
  1,964
  2,401
  2,894
  3,443
  4,048
  4,709
  5,424
  6,193
  7,014
  7,886
  8,807
  9,778
  10,796
  11,862
  12,976
  14,137
  15,346
  16,605
  17,913
  19,272
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.118
  0.122
  0.122
  0.119
  0.122
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
  0.121
Average production assets, $m
  84
  129
  194
  281
  396
  545
  731
  960
  1,235
  1,560
  1,937
  2,368
  2,855
  3,396
  3,994
  4,645
  5,351
  6,110
  6,919
  7,780
  8,689
  9,646
  10,651
  11,703
  12,801
  13,947
  15,139
  16,381
  17,671
  19,013
Working capital, $m
  -13
  -21
  -31
  -45
  -64
  -87
  -117
  -154
  -198
  -250
  -311
  -380
  -458
  -544
  -640
  -745
  -858
  -979
  -1,109
  -1,247
  -1,393
  -1,546
  -1,707
  -1,876
  -2,052
  -2,236
  -2,427
  -2,626
  -2,833
  -3,048
Total debt, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -63
  -70
  -78
  -86
  -95
  -103
  -113
  -122
  -132
  -143
  -154
Total liabilities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -28
  -32
  -38
  -43
  -50
  -56
  -63
  -70
  -78
  -86
  -95
  -104
  -113
  -123
  -133
  -143
  -154
Total equity, $m
  86
  132
  198
  287
  405
  556
  747
  981
  1,262
  1,594
  1,979
  2,420
  2,917
  3,470
  4,081
  4,747
  5,468
  6,243
  7,070
  7,949
  8,878
  9,856
  10,883
  11,957
  13,080
  14,250
  15,469
  16,737
  18,056
  19,427
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  85
  131
  196
  285
  402
  552
  741
  973
  1,252
  1,581
  1,963
  2,401
  2,894
  3,442
  4,049
  4,709
  5,425
  6,193
  7,014
  7,886
  8,808
  9,778
  10,797
  11,862
  12,976
  14,137
  15,346
  16,604
  17,913
  19,273
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
  -0.010
Adjusted equity ratio
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008
  1.008

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -36
  -56
  -83
  -120
  -170
  -234
  -314
  -412
  -530
  -669
  -831
  -1,016
  -1,224
  -1,457
  -1,713
  -1,993
  -2,295
  -2,620
  -2,968
  -3,337
  -3,727
  -4,137
  -4,568
  -5,019
  -5,490
  -5,982
  -6,493
  -7,025
  -7,579
  -8,154
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  4
  6
  9
  13
  18
  24
  32
  41
  52
  65
  79
  95
  113
  133
  155
  178
  204
  231
  259
  290
  322
  355
  390
  427
  465
  505
  546
  589
  634
Funds from operations, $m
  -33
  -51
  -77
  -111
  -157
  -215
  -289
  -380
  -489
  -617
  -766
  -937
  -1,129
  -1,344
  -1,580
  -1,838
  -2,117
  -2,417
  -2,737
  -3,077
  -3,437
  -3,816
  -4,213
  -4,629
  -5,064
  -5,517
  -5,988
  -6,479
  -6,990
  -7,520
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -14
  -18
  -24
  -30
  -37
  -44
  -52
  -60
  -69
  -78
  -87
  -96
  -105
  -113
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -215
Cash from operations, $m
  -28
  -44
  -66
  -97
  -138
  -192
  -259
  -343
  -445
  -565
  -706
  -868
  -1,051
  -1,257
  -1,484
  -1,733
  -2,004
  -2,295
  -2,607
  -2,939
  -3,291
  -3,662
  -4,052
  -4,460
  -4,887
  -5,333
  -5,797
  -6,280
  -6,783
  -7,305
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -9
  -13
  -18
  -24
  -32
  -41
  -52
  -65
  -79
  -95
  -113
  -133
  -155
  -178
  -204
  -231
  -259
  -290
  -322
  -355
  -390
  -427
  -465
  -505
  -546
  -589
New CAPEX, $m
  -35
  -46
  -64
  -87
  -115
  -148
  -186
  -229
  -275
  -325
  -377
  -431
  -486
  -542
  -597
  -652
  -706
  -758
  -810
  -860
  -909
  -957
  -1,005
  -1,052
  -1,099
  -1,145
  -1,193
  -1,241
  -1,291
  -1,341
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -37
  -49
  -68
  -93
  -124
  -161
  -204
  -253
  -307
  -366
  -429
  -496
  -565
  -637
  -710
  -785
  -861
  -936
  -1,014
  -1,091
  -1,168
  -1,247
  -1,327
  -1,407
  -1,489
  -1,572
  -1,658
  -1,746
  -1,837
  -1,930
Free cash flow, $m
  -65
  -92
  -135
  -191
  -263
  -353
  -464
  -596
  -752
  -931
  -1,135
  -1,364
  -1,617
  -1,894
  -2,194
  -2,518
  -2,864
  -3,232
  -3,621
  -4,030
  -4,460
  -4,909
  -5,378
  -5,867
  -6,376
  -6,905
  -7,455
  -8,026
  -8,620
  -9,236
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  72
  102
  149
  210
  288
  385
  504
  646
  811
  1,001
  1,216
  1,456
  1,721
  2,010
  2,323
  2,659
  3,016
  3,395
  3,795
  4,215
  4,656
  5,115
  5,595
  6,094
  6,613
  7,152
  7,712
  8,294
  8,898
  9,525
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  72
  102
  148
  209
  287
  384
  502
  644
  809
  998
  1,213
  1,453
  1,717
  2,006
  2,318
  2,654
  3,010
  3,389
  3,788
  4,208
  4,649
  5,107
  5,587
  6,085
  6,604
  7,143
  7,702
  8,284
  8,888
  9,514
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  6
  9
  13
  18
  24
  31
  39
  47
  57
  67
  78
  89
  101
  112
  124
  135
  146
  157
  168
  178
  188
  198
  208
  218
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  278
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -72
  -102
  -149
  -210
  -288
  -385
  -504
  -646
  -811
  -1,001
  -1,216
  -1,456
  -1,721
  -2,010
  -2,323
  -2,659
  -3,016
  -3,395
  -3,795
  -4,215
  -4,656
  -5,115
  -5,595
  -6,094
  -6,613
  -7,152
  -7,712
  -8,294
  -8,898
  -9,525
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -41
  -93
  -135
  -192
  -264
  -355
  -465
  -598
  -754
  -934
  -1,138
  -1,367
  -1,621
  -1,898
  -2,199
  -2,523
  -2,870
  -3,238
  -3,627
  -4,037
  -4,467
  -4,917
  -5,386
  -5,876
  -6,385
  -6,914
  -7,465
  -8,036
  -8,630
  -9,247
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -39
  -85
  -118
  -158
  -205
  -257
  -314
  -374
  -433
  -490
  -540
  -583
  -616
  -637
  -646
  -641
  -624
  -596
  -559
  -513
  -462
  -408
  -353
  -299
  -248
  -202
  -160
  -124
  -94
  -70
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  75.4
  59.3
  47.2
  38.0
  31.0
  25.4
  21.1
  17.6
  14.8
  12.6
  10.7
  9.2
  7.9
  6.8
  5.9
  5.2
  4.5
  3.9
  3.5
  3.1
  2.7
  2.4
  2.1
  1.9
  1.7
  1.5
  1.3
  1.2
  1.0
  0.9

Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. is focused on the acquisition, ownership and management of specialized industrial properties leased to state-licensed operators for their regulated medical-use cannabis facilities. The Company intends to acquire its properties through sale-leaseback transactions and third-party purchases. It is focused on leasing its properties on a triple-net lease basis, where the tenant is responsible for all aspects of and costs related to the property and its operation during the lease term, including maintenance, taxes and insurance. The Company intends to conduct business in an umbrella partnership real estate investment trust (UPREIT), structure through its operating partnership. The Company's real estate investments will consist of primarily properties suitable for cultivation and production of medical-use cannabis.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -119.8
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 239.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -17.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -12.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.2%
Return On Total Capital -13.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.4%
Return On Equity -13.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.4%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

IIPR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IIPR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6.42 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Innovative Industrial Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Innovative Industrial Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IIPR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IIPR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Innovative Industrial Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Innovative Industrial Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IIPR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 450%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IIPR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Innovative Industrial Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Innovative Industrial Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IIPR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IIPR are equal to 815.3%.

Life of production assets of 53.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Innovative Industrial Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IIPR is equal to -130.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $73.549 million for Innovative Industrial Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 6.786 million for Innovative Industrial Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Innovative Industrial Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
IIPR Innovative Ind 47.64 2.71  str.sell
HIFR InfraREIT 21.26 2.95  str.sell
AMT American Tower 162.13 60.79  str.sell
TRC Tejon Ranch 17.92 3.84  str.sell

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