Intrinsic value of Intermolecular - IMI

Previous Close

$0.93

  Intrinsic Value

$0.17

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

Previous close

$0.93

 
Intrinsic value

$0.17

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of IMI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
Revenue, $m
  45
  54
  64
  74
  86
  99
  112
  126
  141
  157
  174
  192
  210
  229
  249
  270
  291
  314
  337
  361
  387
  413
  440
  468
  498
  528
  560
  594
  628
  665
Variable operating expenses, $m
  60
  71
  84
  98
  114
  130
  148
  167
  186
  207
  229
  252
  276
  302
  328
  355
  384
  413
  444
  476
  509
  544
  579
  617
  655
  696
  738
  782
  828
  875
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  60
  71
  84
  98
  114
  130
  148
  167
  186
  207
  229
  252
  276
  302
  328
  355
  384
  413
  444
  476
  509
  544
  579
  617
  655
  696
  738
  782
  828
  875
Operating income, $m
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -36
  -40
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -86
  -92
  -99
  -107
  -115
  -123
  -131
  -139
  -148
  -158
  -167
  -178
  -188
  -199
  -211
EBITDA, $m
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -95
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -123
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -174
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Earnings before tax, $m
  -15
  -17
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -51
  -57
  -62
  -68
  -75
  -81
  -88
  -95
  -103
  -110
  -118
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -153
  -163
  -173
  -184
  -194
  -206
  -218
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -15
  -17
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -51
  -57
  -62
  -68
  -75
  -81
  -88
  -95
  -103
  -110
  -118
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -153
  -163
  -173
  -184
  -194
  -206
  -218

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  31
  37
  44
  51
  59
  68
  77
  87
  97
  108
  120
  132
  144
  157
  171
  185
  200
  216
  232
  248
  266
  284
  302
  322
  342
  363
  385
  408
  432
  457
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  31
  37
  44
  51
  59
  68
  77
  87
  97
  108
  120
  132
  144
  157
  171
  185
  200
  216
  232
  248
  266
  284
  302
  322
  342
  363
  385
  408
  432
  457
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.452
  1.459
  1.455
  1.451
  1.458
  1.456
  1.455
  1.448
  1.454
  1.454
  1.450
  1.455
  1.458
  1.459
  1.456
  1.459
  1.455
  1.454
  1.453
  1.456
  1.455
  1.454
  1.457
  1.453
  1.456
  1.455
  1.455
  1.456
  1.454
  1.455
Average production assets, $m
  12
  15
  17
  20
  23
  27
  31
  34
  39
  43
  48
  52
  57
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  120
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  172
  181
Working capital, $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
Total debt, $m
  2
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  31
  34
  39
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  109
  117
  124
  132
  140
Total liabilities, $m
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
Total equity, $m
  21
  25
  30
  35
  40
  46
  52
  59
  66
  73
  81
  89
  98
  106
  116
  125
  135
  146
  157
  168
  180
  192
  204
  218
  231
  246
  260
  276
  292
  309
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  31
  37
  44
  52
  59
  68
  77
  87
  97
  108
  120
  132
  145
  157
  171
  185
  200
  216
  232
  248
  266
  284
  302
  322
  342
  364
  385
  408
  432
  457
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.090
  0.150
  0.200
  0.240
  0.270
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -15
  -17
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -51
  -57
  -62
  -68
  -75
  -81
  -88
  -95
  -103
  -110
  -118
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -153
  -163
  -173
  -184
  -194
  -206
  -218
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
Funds from operations, $m
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -43
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -68
  -73
  -79
  -85
  -92
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -120
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -153
  -162
  -172
  -181
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -173
  -183
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -4
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -44
Free cash flow, $m
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -101
  -108
  -116
  -124
  -133
  -142
  -151
  -160
  -170
  -181
  -192
  -203
  -215
  -227
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  18
  22
  25
  29
  33
  38
  43
  48
  53
  59
  64
  71
  77
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  121
  129
  138
  147
  157
  166
  177
  187
  198
  210
  222
  235
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  20
  24
  27
  31
  36
  41
  46
  51
  56
  63
  68
  75
  81
  88
  95
  103
  110
  118
  126
  134
  144
  153
  163
  172
  184
  194
  205
  217
  230
  243
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -18
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -59
  -64
  -71
  -77
  -84
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -113
  -121
  -129
  -138
  -147
  -157
  -166
  -177
  -187
  -198
  -210
  -222
  -235
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  4
  -17
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -96
  -103
  -111
  -119
  -127
  -136
  -145
  -154
  -164
  -174
  -185
  -196
  -207
  -219
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  4
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -26
  -25
  -24
  -23
  -21
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  54.6
  30.3
  17.0
  9.6
  5.5
  3.2
  1.8
  1.1
  0.6
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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Intermolecular, Inc. provides thin film solutions. The Company's high productivity combinatorial (HPC) platform, which consists of its tempus processing tools, its automated characterization methods, and its Informatics analysis software, is purpose-built for research and development (R&D) using combinatorial process systems. It develops technology and Internet protocol (IP) rights focused on materials, processes, integration and device architectures in collaboration with its customers. Its HPC platform consists of tempus HPC processing, automated characterization and informatics and analysis software. The Company offers a series of wet processing tools and dry processing tools. Its informatics software includes workflow management software, analysis and reporting software, security and collaboration management software, and integration services. It caters to semiconductor device, semiconductor materials and equipment and clean energy market companies.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Intermolecular (IMI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.1
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -9.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -33.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -24.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.9%
Return On Total Capital -29.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -26.5%
Return On Equity -29.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -30.5%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.2%
EBITDA Margin -10.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.2%
Operating Margin -34%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -41.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -31.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -41.5%
Net Profit Margin -31.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -41.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

IMI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IMI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $37.203 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Intermolecular. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Intermolecular. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IMI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IMI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Intermolecular, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Intermolecular.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IMI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 132.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IMI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Intermolecular.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Intermolecular. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IMI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IMI are equal to 27.3%.

Life of production assets of 1.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Intermolecular operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IMI is equal to 3.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $36.073 million for Intermolecular - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 49.742 million for Intermolecular is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Intermolecular at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Intermolecular: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-06-18 06:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ Intermolecular: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-06-18 05:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ Earnings Preview: Intermolecular   [08:41AM  Benzinga]
▶ Intermolecular: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-08-18 06:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ Intermolecular posts 4Q profit   [Feb-13-18 05:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Intermolecular reports 3Q loss   [Nov-02-17 06:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ What Does Intermolecular Incs (IMI) Share Price Indicate?   [Sep-14-17 07:31PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Intermolecular reports 2Q loss   [Aug-10-17 01:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Top 10 Penny Stocks To Buy in 2017   [Jun-29-17 12:26PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Intermolecular, Inc. : May 25, 2017   [May-25-17 12:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Intermolecular, Inc. : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 04:55PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Intermolecular reports 1Q loss   [May-04-17 07:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ Intermolecular reports 4Q loss   [06:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ Intermolecular reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-16 07:19PM  AP]

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