Intrinsic value of Ingles Markets Cl A - IMKTA

Previous Close

$32.64

  Intrinsic Value

$21.70

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-34%

Previous close

$32.64

 
Intrinsic value

$21.70

 
Up/down potential

-34%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of IMKTA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  4,207
  4,421
  4,646
  4,881
  5,129
  5,388
  5,660
  5,946
  6,246
  6,561
  6,891
  7,238
  7,601
  7,983
  8,384
  8,805
  9,247
  9,711
  10,198
  10,710
  11,246
  11,810
  12,402
  13,023
  13,675
  14,360
  15,079
  15,833
  16,626
  17,458
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,064
  4,271
  4,488
  4,715
  4,954
  5,205
  5,468
  5,744
  6,033
  6,337
  6,657
  6,991
  7,343
  7,712
  8,099
  8,506
  8,933
  9,381
  9,852
  10,345
  10,864
  11,408
  11,980
  12,580
  13,210
  13,871
  14,566
  15,295
  16,061
  16,864
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,064
  4,271
  4,488
  4,715
  4,954
  5,205
  5,468
  5,744
  6,033
  6,337
  6,657
  6,991
  7,343
  7,712
  8,099
  8,506
  8,933
  9,381
  9,852
  10,345
  10,864
  11,408
  11,980
  12,580
  13,210
  13,871
  14,566
  15,295
  16,061
  16,864
Operating income, $m
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  285
  299
  314
  330
  347
  364
  382
  402
  422
  443
  465
  488
  513
  538
  565
  594
EBITDA, $m
  260
  273
  287
  302
  317
  333
  350
  367
  386
  405
  426
  447
  470
  493
  518
  544
  571
  600
  630
  662
  695
  730
  766
  805
  845
  887
  932
  978
  1,027
  1,079
Interest expense (income), $m
  47
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  256
Earnings before tax, $m
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
  215
  224
  235
  246
  257
  269
  281
  295
  308
  323
  338
Tax expense, $m
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
Net income, $m
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  188
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,822
  1,915
  2,012
  2,114
  2,221
  2,333
  2,451
  2,575
  2,705
  2,841
  2,984
  3,134
  3,292
  3,458
  3,631
  3,814
  4,005
  4,206
  4,417
  4,638
  4,871
  5,115
  5,371
  5,640
  5,922
  6,219
  6,530
  6,857
  7,200
  7,561
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,822
  1,915
  2,012
  2,114
  2,221
  2,333
  2,451
  2,575
  2,705
  2,841
  2,984
  3,134
  3,292
  3,458
  3,631
  3,814
  4,005
  4,206
  4,417
  4,638
  4,871
  5,115
  5,371
  5,640
  5,922
  6,219
  6,530
  6,857
  7,200
  7,561
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.310
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
  2.309
Average production assets, $m
  1,321
  1,388
  1,459
  1,533
  1,610
  1,692
  1,777
  1,867
  1,961
  2,060
  2,164
  2,273
  2,387
  2,507
  2,633
  2,765
  2,904
  3,049
  3,202
  3,363
  3,531
  3,708
  3,894
  4,089
  4,294
  4,509
  4,735
  4,972
  5,221
  5,482
Working capital, $m
  198
  208
  218
  229
  241
  253
  266
  279
  294
  308
  324
  340
  357
  375
  394
  414
  435
  456
  479
  503
  529
  555
  583
  612
  643
  675
  709
  744
  781
  821
Total debt, $m
  940
  1,005
  1,074
  1,146
  1,221
  1,301
  1,384
  1,471
  1,563
  1,659
  1,760
  1,865
  1,977
  2,093
  2,216
  2,344
  2,479
  2,621
  2,769
  2,926
  3,089
  3,261
  3,442
  3,632
  3,831
  4,040
  4,259
  4,490
  4,732
  4,986
Total liabilities, $m
  1,284
  1,350
  1,418
  1,490
  1,566
  1,645
  1,728
  1,815
  1,907
  2,003
  2,104
  2,210
  2,321
  2,438
  2,560
  2,689
  2,823
  2,965
  3,114
  3,270
  3,434
  3,606
  3,787
  3,976
  4,175
  4,384
  4,604
  4,834
  5,076
  5,330
Total equity, $m
  537
  565
  594
  624
  655
  688
  723
  760
  798
  838
  880
  925
  971
  1,020
  1,071
  1,125
  1,181
  1,241
  1,303
  1,368
  1,437
  1,509
  1,584
  1,664
  1,747
  1,835
  1,926
  2,023
  2,124
  2,230
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,821
  1,915
  2,012
  2,114
  2,221
  2,333
  2,451
  2,575
  2,705
  2,841
  2,984
  3,135
  3,292
  3,458
  3,631
  3,814
  4,004
  4,206
  4,417
  4,638
  4,871
  5,115
  5,371
  5,640
  5,922
  6,219
  6,530
  6,857
  7,200
  7,560
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.750
  1.780
  1.810
  1.840
  1.860
  1.890
  1.910
  1.940
  1.960
  1.980
  2.000
  2.020
  2.040
  2.050
  2.070
  2.080
  2.100
  2.110
  2.130
  2.140
  2.150
  2.160
  2.170
  2.180
  2.190
  2.200
  2.210
  2.220
  2.230
  2.240
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295
  0.295

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  188
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  174
  182
  191
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
  283
  298
  313
  328
  345
  362
  380
  399
  419
  440
  462
  485
Funds from operations, $m
  187
  196
  205
  214
  225
  235
  246
  258
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
  342
  359
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
  476
  500
  524
  549
  576
  604
  634
  665
  698
  732
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
Cash from operations, $m
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  256
  269
  282
  295
  309
  324
  340
  356
  373
  391
  410
  430
  451
  473
  496
  520
  546
  572
  600
  630
  660
  693
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -283
  -298
  -313
  -328
  -345
  -362
  -380
  -399
  -419
  -440
  -462
New CAPEX, $m
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -261
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -203
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -273
  -286
  -300
  -315
  -331
  -348
  -365
  -384
  -403
  -423
  -444
  -467
  -490
  -514
  -540
  -567
  -595
  -625
  -656
  -689
  -723
Free cash flow, $m
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  62
  65
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  122
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  199
  209
  220
  230
  242
  254
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  62
  65
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  122
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  199
  209
  220
  230
  242
  254
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
Discount rate, %
  8.90
  9.35
  9.81
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.93
  12.52
  13.15
  13.81
  14.50
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.43
  20.40
  21.42
  22.49
  23.61
  24.80
  26.03
  27.34
  28.70
  30.14
  31.65
  33.23
  34.89
  36.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  34
  33
  31
  28
  26
  24
  21
  19
  17
  14
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ingles Markets, Incorporated (Ingles) is a supermarket chain in the southeast United States. The Company's segments include retail grocery and other. Its other segment consists of fluid dairy operations and shopping center rentals. As of September 24, 2016, the Company operated 201 supermarkets in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and Alabama. The Company locates its supermarkets primarily in suburban areas, small towns and rural communities. Ingles supermarkets offer customers a range of food products, including grocery, meat and dairy products, produce, frozen foods and other perishables and non-food products. Its non-food products include fuel centers, pharmacies, health and beauty care products and general merchandise. The Company focuses on selling products to its customers through the development of organic products, bakery departments and prepared foods, including delicatessen sections.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ingles Markets Cl A (IMKTA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.2
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -7.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 169.5%
Total Debt to Equity 171.8%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Total Capital 3.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Equity 11%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
EBITDA Margin 6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Operating Margin 3.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Net Profit Margin 1.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Effective Tax Rate 35.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.5%
Payout Ratio 24.1%

IMKTA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IMKTA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4002.699727 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ingles Markets Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Ingles Markets Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IMKTA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.9%, whose default value for IMKTA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ingles Markets Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ingles Markets Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IMKTA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IMKTA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Ingles Markets Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ingles Markets Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IMKTA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IMKTA are equal to 31.4%.

Life of production assets of 11.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ingles Markets Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IMKTA is equal to 4.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $511.052003 million for Ingles Markets Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 14.135 million for Ingles Markets Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ingles Markets Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 5 Undervalued Companies With Predictable Businesses   [Oct-22-18 05:26PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Inside The List: Breakdown of size, location of NC's publicly traded companies   [Aug-17-18 01:32PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Ingles: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-09-18 05:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Grocery retailer pays $3.4 million for Triad shopping center   [Jun-15-18 02:39PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Ingles: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-10-18 07:57AM  Associated Press]
▶ GAMCO Comments on Ingles Markets 2018 Annual Meeting   [Mar-13-18 03:17PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ingles posts 1Q profit   [Feb-09-18 07:41AM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Amazons latest move with Whole Foods should worry other grocers   [Feb-08-18 11:16AM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Buy 3 Stocks With Rising Cash Flows This Earnings Season   [Jan-16-18 02:00PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Ingles posts 4Q profit   [Dec-07-17 07:57AM  Associated Press]
▶ Triad grocery stores, ranked by market share   [Jun-27-17 02:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingles Markets, Inc. : May 19, 2017   [May-19-17 01:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ How Whole Foods Went From Undervalued To Overvalued   [May-10-17 02:22PM  Benzinga]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingles Markets, Inc. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 04:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ingles posts 2Q profit   [May-04-17 03:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ingles posts 1Q profit   [05:02AM  Associated Press]

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