Intrinsic value of Immersion Corporation - IMMR

Previous Close

$8.20

  Intrinsic Value

$0.79

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$8.20

 
Intrinsic value

$0.79

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of IMMR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  57.60
  52.34
  47.61
  43.35
  39.51
  36.06
  32.95
  30.16
  27.64
  25.38
  23.34
  21.51
  19.86
  18.37
  17.03
  15.83
  14.75
  13.77
  12.89
  12.11
  11.39
  10.76
  10.18
  9.66
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
Revenue, $m
  175
  266
  393
  564
  787
  1,070
  1,423
  1,852
  2,364
  2,964
  3,656
  4,442
  5,324
  6,303
  7,376
  8,544
  9,804
  11,154
  12,592
  14,116
  15,725
  17,416
  19,189
  21,043
  22,978
  24,995
  27,094
  29,278
  31,547
  33,906
Variable operating expenses, $m
  402
  612
  903
  1,294
  1,806
  2,457
  3,266
  4,251
  5,427
  6,804
  8,391
  10,196
  12,221
  14,466
  16,930
  19,609
  22,501
  25,600
  28,901
  32,400
  36,092
  39,974
  44,043
  48,298
  52,740
  57,368
  62,186
  67,198
  72,408
  77,822
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  402
  612
  903
  1,294
  1,806
  2,457
  3,266
  4,251
  5,427
  6,804
  8,391
  10,196
  12,221
  14,466
  16,930
  19,609
  22,501
  25,600
  28,901
  32,400
  36,092
  39,974
  44,043
  48,298
  52,740
  57,368
  62,186
  67,198
  72,408
  77,822
Operating income, $m
  -227
  -345
  -510
  -731
  -1,019
  -1,386
  -1,843
  -2,399
  -3,062
  -3,839
  -4,735
  -5,754
  -6,896
  -8,163
  -9,553
  -11,066
  -12,698
  -14,446
  -16,309
  -18,284
  -20,367
  -22,557
  -24,854
  -27,255
  -29,761
  -32,373
  -35,092
  -37,920
  -40,860
  -43,915
EBITDA, $m
  -226
  -344
  -508
  -728
  -1,015
  -1,381
  -1,836
  -2,390
  -3,050
  -3,824
  -4,717
  -5,732
  -6,870
  -8,132
  -9,517
  -11,023
  -12,649
  -14,391
  -16,246
  -18,213
  -20,288
  -22,470
  -24,758
  -27,150
  -29,647
  -32,248
  -34,957
  -37,774
  -40,702
  -43,746
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  2
  4
  6
  10
  15
  20
  27
  35
  45
  56
  68
  82
  98
  115
  134
  154
  175
  198
  223
  248
  275
  303
  333
  364
  396
  430
  464
  501
Earnings before tax, $m
  -227
  -346
  -511
  -734
  -1,026
  -1,397
  -1,858
  -2,419
  -3,089
  -3,875
  -4,780
  -5,810
  -6,965
  -8,245
  -9,651
  -11,181
  -12,831
  -14,600
  -16,485
  -18,482
  -20,590
  -22,806
  -25,129
  -27,559
  -30,095
  -32,737
  -35,488
  -38,350
  -41,324
  -44,416
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -227
  -346
  -511
  -734
  -1,026
  -1,397
  -1,858
  -2,419
  -3,089
  -3,875
  -4,780
  -5,810
  -6,965
  -8,245
  -9,651
  -11,181
  -12,831
  -14,600
  -16,485
  -18,482
  -20,590
  -22,806
  -25,129
  -27,559
  -30,095
  -32,737
  -35,488
  -38,350
  -41,324
  -44,416

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  57
  87
  129
  185
  258
  351
  467
  608
  776
  973
  1,200
  1,457
  1,747
  2,068
  2,420
  2,803
  3,216
  3,659
  4,131
  4,631
  5,159
  5,714
  6,296
  6,904
  7,539
  8,200
  8,889
  9,606
  10,350
  11,124
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  57
  87
  129
  185
  258
  351
  467
  608
  776
  973
  1,200
  1,457
  1,747
  2,068
  2,420
  2,803
  3,216
  3,659
  4,131
  4,631
  5,159
  5,714
  6,296
  6,904
  7,539
  8,200
  8,889
  9,606
  10,350
  11,124
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.070
  3.057
  3.047
  3.049
  3.050
  3.048
  3.047
  3.046
  3.046
  3.046
  3.047
  3.049
  3.048
  3.048
  3.048
  3.048
  3.049
  3.048
  3.048
  3.048
  3.048
  3.048
  3.048
  3.048
  3.048
  3.048
  3.048
  3.048
  3.048
  3.048
Average production assets, $m
  4
  7
  10
  14
  20
  27
  36
  46
  59
  74
  91
  111
  133
  158
  184
  214
  245
  279
  315
  353
  393
  435
  480
  526
  574
  625
  677
  732
  789
  848
Working capital, $m
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -23
  -31
  -43
  -57
  -74
  -95
  -119
  -146
  -178
  -213
  -252
  -295
  -342
  -392
  -446
  -504
  -565
  -629
  -697
  -768
  -842
  -919
  -1,000
  -1,084
  -1,171
  -1,262
  -1,356
Total debt, $m
  5
  32
  70
  120
  186
  270
  374
  501
  652
  829
  1,033
  1,265
  1,526
  1,815
  2,132
  2,476
  2,848
  3,247
  3,672
  4,122
  4,597
  5,096
  5,620
  6,167
  6,739
  7,334
  7,954
  8,599
  9,269
  9,965
Total liabilities, $m
  52
  79
  116
  166
  232
  316
  420
  547
  698
  875
  1,080
  1,312
  1,572
  1,861
  2,178
  2,523
  2,895
  3,293
  3,718
  4,168
  4,643
  5,143
  5,666
  6,214
  6,785
  7,380
  8,000
  8,645
  9,315
  10,012
Total equity, $m
  6
  9
  13
  18
  26
  35
  47
  61
  78
  97
  120
  146
  175
  207
  242
  280
  322
  366
  413
  463
  516
  571
  630
  690
  754
  820
  889
  961
  1,035
  1,112
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  58
  88
  129
  184
  258
  351
  467
  608
  776
  972
  1,200
  1,458
  1,747
  2,068
  2,420
  2,803
  3,217
  3,659
  4,131
  4,631
  5,159
  5,714
  6,296
  6,904
  7,539
  8,200
  8,889
  9,606
  10,350
  11,124
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.930
  3.700
  5.410
  6.500
  7.200
  7.680
  8.010
  8.240
  8.400
  8.520
  8.610
  8.680
  8.730
  8.780
  8.810
  8.830
  8.860
  8.870
  8.890
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.930
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -227
  -346
  -511
  -734
  -1,026
  -1,397
  -1,858
  -2,419
  -3,089
  -3,875
  -4,780
  -5,810
  -6,965
  -8,245
  -9,651
  -11,181
  -12,831
  -14,600
  -16,485
  -18,482
  -20,590
  -22,806
  -25,129
  -27,559
  -30,095
  -32,737
  -35,488
  -38,350
  -41,324
  -44,416
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  27
  32
  37
  43
  49
  56
  63
  71
  79
  87
  96
  105
  115
  125
  135
  146
  158
  170
Funds from operations, $m
  -226
  -344
  -509
  -731
  -1,021
  -1,391
  -1,851
  -2,410
  -3,077
  -3,860
  -4,762
  -5,787
  -6,938
  -8,214
  -9,615
  -11,138
  -12,782
  -14,544
  -16,422
  -18,411
  -20,511
  -22,719
  -25,033
  -27,453
  -29,980
  -32,612
  -35,353
  -38,203
  -41,167
  -44,246
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
Cash from operations, $m
  -223
  -340
  -504
  -724
  -1,013
  -1,380
  -1,836
  -2,393
  -3,057
  -3,836
  -4,734
  -5,756
  -6,903
  -8,175
  -9,572
  -11,091
  -12,732
  -14,490
  -16,364
  -18,350
  -20,447
  -22,651
  -24,962
  -27,379
  -29,902
  -32,532
  -35,269
  -38,116
  -41,076
  -44,152
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -22
  -27
  -32
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -63
  -71
  -79
  -87
  -96
  -105
  -115
  -125
  -135
  -146
  -158
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -22
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -44
  -51
  -59
  -66
  -74
  -83
  -92
  -101
  -111
  -121
  -131
  -142
  -153
  -165
  -177
  -190
  -203
  -217
Free cash flow, $m
  -225
  -344
  -509
  -731
  -1,021
  -1,391
  -1,851
  -2,411
  -3,079
  -3,862
  -4,766
  -5,794
  -6,947
  -8,226
  -9,630
  -11,158
  -12,806
  -14,573
  -16,456
  -18,451
  -20,557
  -22,772
  -25,094
  -27,522
  -30,056
  -32,697
  -35,446
  -38,306
  -41,279
  -44,369
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  27
  37
  50
  66
  84
  104
  127
  151
  177
  204
  232
  260
  289
  317
  345
  372
  399
  425
  450
  475
  499
  524
  547
  571
  595
  620
  645
  670
  697
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  242
  349
  516
  740
  1,033
  1,406
  1,869
  2,433
  3,106
  3,894
  4,803
  5,835
  6,993
  8,278
  9,687
  11,219
  12,873
  14,644
  16,532
  18,532
  20,642
  22,861
  25,187
  27,619
  30,158
  32,803
  35,557
  38,421
  41,399
  44,493
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  247
  376
  553
  790
  1,099
  1,490
  1,973
  2,560
  3,257
  4,071
  5,007
  6,067
  7,253
  8,567
  10,004
  11,564
  13,245
  15,043
  16,957
  18,982
  21,117
  23,360
  25,711
  28,166
  30,729
  33,398
  36,177
  39,066
  42,069
  45,190
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  22
  32
  44
  60
  78
  99
  123
  150
  178
  209
  241
  274
  307
  340
  374
  406
  439
  470
  501
  531
  560
  589
  617
  645
  674
  702
  731
  760
  790
  821
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -242
  -349
  -516
  -740
  -1,033
  -1,406
  -1,869
  -2,433
  -3,106
  -3,894
  -4,803
  -5,835
  -6,993
  -8,278
  -9,687
  -11,219
  -12,873
  -14,644
  -16,532
  -18,532
  -20,642
  -22,861
  -25,187
  -27,619
  -30,158
  -32,803
  -35,557
  -38,421
  -41,399
  -44,493
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  110
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -110
  -317
  -471
  -680
  -955
  -1,307
  -1,746
  -2,284
  -2,928
  -3,685
  -4,562
  -5,562
  -6,686
  -7,937
  -9,313
  -10,813
  -12,434
  -14,175
  -16,031
  -18,001
  -20,082
  -22,273
  -24,570
  -26,974
  -29,484
  -32,101
  -34,827
  -37,661
  -40,609
  -43,672
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -106
  -290
  -410
  -560
  -740
  -948
  -1,180
  -1,427
  -1,682
  -1,932
  -2,166
  -2,373
  -2,542
  -2,665
  -2,734
  -2,748
  -2,705
  -2,610
  -2,468
  -2,287
  -2,077
  -1,848
  -1,610
  -1,374
  -1,147
  -937
  -747
  -583
  -443
  -329
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  2.0
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Immersion Corporation is a licensing company focused on the creation, design, development and licensing of haptic technologies that allow people to use their sense of touch when operating digital devices. The Company develops, licenses and supports a range of software and intellectual property (IP). It is focused on the markets, including mobile devices, wearables, consumer, mobile entertainment and other content; console gaming; automotive; medical, and commercial. It provides advanced tactile software, related tools and technical assistance to certain customers, and offers licenses to its patented IP to other customers. Its licenses enable customers to deploy haptically-enabled devices, content and other offerings, which they sell under own brand names. It holds patents, covering digital technologies and including ways in which touch-related technology can be incorporated into and between hardware products and components, systems software, application software, and digital content.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Immersion Corporation (IMMR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -6.1
Price to Sales 4.2
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -37.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.2%
Return On Total Capital -54.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.4%
Return On Equity -54.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.4%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 100%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 99.4%
EBITDA Margin -24.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Operating Margin -26.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -26.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
Net Profit Margin -68.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.7%
Effective Tax Rate -166.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

IMMR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IMMR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $111 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Immersion Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Immersion Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IMMR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 57.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IMMR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Immersion Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Immersion Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IMMR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 229.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IMMR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Immersion Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Immersion Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IMMR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IMMR are equal to 2.5%.

Life of production assets of 3.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Immersion Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IMMR is equal to -4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $99.66 million for Immersion Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30.854 million for Immersion Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Immersion Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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