Intrinsic value of Immunomedics - IMMU

Previous Close

$18.91

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$18.91

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of IMMU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Variable operating expenses, $m
  61
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  61
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
Operating income, $m
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
EBITDA, $m
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -183
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  5
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
Earnings before tax, $m
  -63
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -191
  -200
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -63
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -191
  -200

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  137
  140
  144
  148
  152
  157
  163
  168
  175
  181
  189
  196
  204
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  333
  348
  365
  383
  401
  420
  441
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  137
  140
  144
  148
  152
  157
  163
  168
  175
  181
  189
  196
  204
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  333
  348
  365
  383
  401
  420
  441
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.022
  0.021
  0.021
  0.020
  0.026
  0.025
  0.025
  0.024
  0.023
  0.022
  0.021
  0.026
  0.025
  0.023
  0.023
  0.022
  0.025
  0.024
  0.023
  0.022
  0.024
  0.023
  0.022
  0.024
  0.023
  0.022
  0.023
  0.022
  0.024
  0.023
Average production assets, $m
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Working capital, $m
  -126
  -129
  -132
  -136
  -140
  -145
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -167
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -243
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -292
  -306
  -320
  -335
  -352
  -368
  -386
  -405
Total debt, $m
  0
  3
  6
  10
  14
  18
  23
  28
  34
  40
  47
  53
  61
  69
  77
  86
  95
  105
  115
  126
  138
  150
  163
  176
  190
  205
  221
  238
  255
  274
Total liabilities, $m
  123
  126
  129
  133
  137
  142
  146
  152
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  299
  314
  329
  344
  361
  378
  397
Total equity, $m
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  137
  140
  143
  148
  152
  158
  162
  169
  174
  181
  189
  197
  204
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  264
  277
  290
  303
  318
  332
  349
  366
  382
  401
  420
  441
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.010
  0.220
  0.440
  0.670
  0.920
  1.170
  1.430
  1.690
  1.950
  2.210
  2.470
  2.720
  2.970
  3.220
  3.460
  3.690
  3.920
  4.130
  4.350
  4.550
  4.750
  4.940
  5.120
  5.300
  5.460
  5.630
  5.780
  5.930
  6.070
  6.210
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -63
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -191
  -200
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Funds from operations, $m
  -62
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -197
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
Cash from operations, $m
  -60
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Free cash flow, $m
  -61
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -182
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -98
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  168
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  175
  183
  193
  202
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  70
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  88
  93
  97
  102
  106
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  172
  181
  191
  200
  210
  220
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  9
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -168
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -183
  -193
  -202
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -126
  -54
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -121
  -49
  -47
  -46
  -44
  -42
  -41
  -39
  -37
  -35
  -33
  -31
  -28
  -26
  -24
  -22
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  9.4
  1.7
  0.3
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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Immunomedics, Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in developing monoclonal antibody-based products for the targeted treatment of cancer, autoimmune disorders and other serious diseases. Its geographic segments include United States and Europe. Its technologies allow it to create humanized antibodies that can be used either alone in unlabeled or naked form, or conjugated with radioactive isotopes, chemotherapeutics, cytokines or toxins. It has a pipeline of eight clinical-stage product candidates. Its portfolio of investigational products includes antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) that are designed to deliver a payload of a chemotherapeutic directly to the tumor, while the managing overall toxic effects that are found with conventional administration of these chemotherapy agents. Its ADCs are sacituzumab govitecan (IMMU-132) and labetuzumab govitecan (IMMU-130), which are in Phase II trials.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Immunomedics (IMMU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -13.6
Price to Sales 695.3
Price to Book -35.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -33.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -32.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -166.1%
Total Debt to Equity -166.1%
Interest Coverage -30
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -134.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -88%
Return On Total Capital -387.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -182.9%
Return On Equity 263.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 61%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 100%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 83.3%
EBITDA Margin -4900%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2538.9%
Operating Margin -2633.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1788.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -5100%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2677.8%
Net Profit Margin -5100%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2622.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

IMMU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IMMU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3.09125 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Immunomedics. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Immunomedics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IMMU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IMMU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Immunomedics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Immunomedics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IMMU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 1933.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IMMU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for Immunomedics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Immunomedics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IMMU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IMMU are equal to 153.6%.

Life of production assets of 5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Immunomedics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IMMU is equal to -3994.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-58.692167 million for Immunomedics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 167.347 million for Immunomedics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Immunomedics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Here's Why Immunomedics Fell as Much as 10.8% Today   [Nov-08-18 04:09PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Immunomedics: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ Here's Why Immunomedics Jumped 11.8% in August   [Sep-11-18 10:23AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Immunomedics: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-23-18 05:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Biotech Stock Favorites to Bet on Today: Top Analysts   [Aug-13-18 08:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ How Financially Strong Is Immunomedics Inc (NASDAQ:IMMU)?   [Jun-27-18 10:42AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ [$$] Immunomedics Chairman Buys $19M More in Stock   [Jun-21-18 04:42PM  Barrons.com]
▶ The Charts of Immunomedics Look Very Bullish Now   [Jun-12-18 02:30PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Immunomedics: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 04:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Harry Boxers four biotech stocks to watch today   [May-02-18 12:01PM  MarketWatch]
▶ When Will Immunomedics Inc (NASDAQ:IMMU) Become Profitable?   [Apr-17-18 10:21AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 8 Companies That Could Disappear by 2019   [Feb-13-18 03:49PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Immunomedics reports 2Q loss   [Feb-09-18 05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ BlackBerry Among Four Stocks Breaking Out   [Dec-21-17 12:23PM  Forbes]
▶ 5 Cheap Biotech Stocks to Snag on the Bounce   [Dec-08-17 01:59PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Why Immunomedics, Inc. Is Soaring Today   [Dec-06-17 03:58PM  Motley Fool]

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