Intrinsic value of Imperva - IMPV

Previous Close

$55.84

  Intrinsic Value

$79.64

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+43%

Previous close

$55.84

 
Intrinsic value

$79.64

 
Up/down potential

+43%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of IMPV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.90
  13.01
  12.21
  11.49
  10.84
  10.26
  9.73
  9.26
  8.83
  8.45
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.04
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.34
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
Revenue, $m
  366
  414
  465
  518
  574
  633
  695
  759
  826
  896
  968
  1,044
  1,122
  1,204
  1,288
  1,377
  1,468
  1,563
  1,662
  1,765
  1,873
  1,985
  2,101
  2,223
  2,350
  2,482
  2,621
  2,765
  2,916
  3,075
Variable operating expenses, $m
  92
  103
  115
  128
  142
  156
  170
  186
  202
  219
  232
  250
  269
  289
  309
  330
  352
  375
  398
  423
  449
  476
  504
  533
  563
  595
  628
  663
  699
  737
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  278
  284
  290
  297
  303
  310
  317
  324
  331
  338
  346
  353
  361
  369
  377
  385
  394
  402
  411
  420
  430
  439
  449
  459
  469
  479
  489
  500
  511
  523
Total operating expenses, $m
  370
  387
  405
  425
  445
  466
  487
  510
  533
  557
  578
  603
  630
  658
  686
  715
  746
  777
  809
  843
  879
  915
  953
  992
  1,032
  1,074
  1,117
  1,163
  1,210
  1,260
Operating income, $m
  -3
  27
  59
  93
  129
  167
  207
  249
  293
  339
  391
  440
  492
  546
  603
  661
  722
  786
  853
  922
  994
  1,070
  1,149
  1,232
  1,318
  1,408
  1,503
  1,602
  1,706
  1,815
EBITDA, $m
  10
  41
  74
  110
  147
  187
  228
  272
  317
  365
  414
  466
  520
  576
  634
  695
  758
  824
  893
  965
  1,040
  1,118
  1,200
  1,286
  1,375
  1,469
  1,567
  1,670
  1,777
  1,890
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  16
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  31
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  52
  55
  59
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
Earnings before tax, $m
  -3
  25
  56
  88
  122
  158
  196
  236
  278
  321
  370
  417
  467
  518
  571
  627
  685
  745
  808
  874
  943
  1,015
  1,090
  1,168
  1,250
  1,336
  1,426
  1,520
  1,619
  1,722
Tax expense, $m
  0
  7
  15
  24
  33
  43
  53
  64
  75
  87
  100
  113
  126
  140
  154
  169
  185
  201
  218
  236
  255
  274
  294
  315
  338
  361
  385
  410
  437
  465
Net income, $m
  -3
  18
  41
  64
  89
  116
  143
  172
  203
  234
  270
  305
  341
  378
  417
  458
  500
  544
  590
  638
  688
  741
  795
  853
  913
  975
  1,041
  1,110
  1,182
  1,257

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  379
  428
  480
  535
  593
  654
  718
  784
  853
  925
  1,000
  1,078
  1,159
  1,244
  1,331
  1,422
  1,517
  1,615
  1,717
  1,824
  1,935
  2,050
  2,171
  2,296
  2,428
  2,564
  2,707
  2,857
  3,013
  3,176
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  379
  428
  480
  535
  593
  654
  718
  784
  853
  925
  1,000
  1,078
  1,159
  1,244
  1,331
  1,422
  1,517
  1,615
  1,717
  1,824
  1,935
  2,050
  2,171
  2,296
  2,428
  2,564
  2,707
  2,857
  3,013
  3,176
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.966
  0.967
  0.969
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.969
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
Average production assets, $m
  51
  58
  65
  72
  80
  88
  97
  105
  115
  125
  135
  145
  156
  167
  179
  191
  204
  217
  231
  245
  260
  276
  292
  309
  327
  345
  364
  384
  405
  427
Working capital, $m
  -88
  -100
  -112
  -125
  -138
  -153
  -167
  -183
  -199
  -216
  -233
  -252
  -270
  -290
  -311
  -332
  -354
  -377
  -401
  -425
  -451
  -478
  -506
  -536
  -566
  -598
  -632
  -666
  -703
  -741
Total debt, $m
  29
  61
  94
  130
  167
  206
  246
  289
  333
  379
  427
  477
  529
  583
  639
  697
  758
  821
  886
  954
  1,025
  1,099
  1,176
  1,257
  1,341
  1,428
  1,520
  1,615
  1,715
  1,820
Total liabilities, $m
  242
  274
  307
  343
  380
  419
  459
  502
  546
  592
  640
  690
  742
  796
  852
  910
  971
  1,034
  1,099
  1,167
  1,238
  1,312
  1,389
  1,470
  1,554
  1,641
  1,733
  1,828
  1,928
  2,033
Total equity, $m
  136
  154
  173
  193
  214
  235
  258
  282
  307
  333
  360
  388
  417
  448
  479
  512
  546
  581
  618
  657
  696
  738
  781
  827
  874
  923
  975
  1,028
  1,085
  1,143
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  378
  428
  480
  536
  594
  654
  717
  784
  853
  925
  1,000
  1,078
  1,159
  1,244
  1,331
  1,422
  1,517
  1,615
  1,717
  1,824
  1,934
  2,050
  2,170
  2,297
  2,428
  2,564
  2,708
  2,856
  3,013
  3,176
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.220
  0.400
  0.550
  0.670
  0.780
  0.870
  0.950
  1.020
  1.080
  1.140
  1.190
  1.230
  1.270
  1.300
  1.330
  1.360
  1.390
  1.410
  1.430
  1.450
  1.470
  1.490
  1.510
  1.520
  1.530
  1.550
  1.560
  1.570
  1.580
  1.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -3
  18
  41
  64
  89
  116
  143
  172
  203
  234
  270
  305
  341
  378
  417
  458
  500
  544
  590
  638
  688
  741
  795
  853
  913
  975
  1,041
  1,110
  1,182
  1,257
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
Funds from operations, $m
  10
  32
  56
  81
  107
  135
  164
  195
  227
  260
  294
  330
  368
  407
  448
  491
  536
  582
  631
  681
  734
  789
  847
  907
  970
  1,036
  1,105
  1,177
  1,253
  1,332
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
Cash from operations, $m
  20
  44
  68
  94
  121
  149
  179
  210
  243
  277
  311
  348
  387
  427
  469
  512
  558
  605
  654
  706
  760
  816
  875
  936
  1,000
  1,068
  1,138
  1,212
  1,289
  1,370
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
Free cash flow, $m
  6
  28
  51
  75
  100
  127
  155
  184
  215
  247
  279
  314
  351
  388
  428
  469
  511
  556
  603
  651
  702
  755
  810
  868
  929
  992
  1,058
  1,128
  1,201
  1,277
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  29
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  91
  96
  100
  104
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  49
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  91
  96
  100
  104
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  56
  60
  84
  110
  137
  166
  196
  227
  259
  293
  327
  364
  402
  442
  484
  527
  572
  619
  668
  719
  773
  829
  887
  948
  1,013
  1,080
  1,150
  1,224
  1,301
  1,382
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -20
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  195
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  231
  42
  66
  90
  117
  144
  173
  203
  234
  267
  300
  336
  373
  412
  452
  494
  538
  584
  631
  681
  733
  787
  844
  903
  965
  1,030
  1,098
  1,170
  1,245
  1,323
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  222
  39
  57
  74
  90
  105
  117
  127
  135
  140
  143
  143
  142
  138
  133
  126
  117
  107
  97
  87
  76
  65
  55
  46
  38
  30
  24
  18
  14
  10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3
  97.3

Imperva, Inc. provides cyber-security solutions that protect business-critical data and applications whether in the cloud or on premises. The Company is engaged in the development, marketing, sales, service and support of cyber-security solutions. The Company's products include its Imperva SecureSphere Paltform, Imperva CounterBreach and Imperva Camouflage for enterprise data centers, and Imperva Incapsula offering for cloud-based security services. Its Imperva SecureSphere provides database, file and Web application security across various physical and virtual systems in data centers, including in private, public and hybrid cloud computing environments. Its Imperva Incapsula product line provides cloud-based Website security, denial of service protection and performance solutions. Its Imperva Camouflage creates realistic, functional data for development, testing, and training by disguising sensitive information, while maintaining the characteristics of the original data.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Imperva (IMPV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -26.4
Price to Sales 7
Price to Book 8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 84
Price to Free Cash Flow 369.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 112.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 41.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -17.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -21%
Return On Total Capital -29.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -40.7%
Return On Equity -29.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -40.7%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 79.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.1%
EBITDA Margin -23.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.5%
Operating Margin -26.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -26.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.3%
Net Profit Margin -26.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.8%
Effective Tax Rate -1.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

IMPV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IMPV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $321.716 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Imperva. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Imperva. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IMPV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IMPV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Imperva, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Imperva.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IMPV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 25.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $272 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IMPV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Imperva.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Imperva. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IMPV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IMPV are equal to 13.9%.

Life of production assets of 5.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Imperva operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IMPV is equal to -24.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $315.117 million for Imperva - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.395 million for Imperva is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Imperva at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Thoma Bravo, eyeing Symantec, has been on a Silicon Valley buyout spree   [Nov-07-18 12:09PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Imperva: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ WeissLaw LLP Investigates Imperva Inc. Acquisition   [Oct-12-18 10:52AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Bay Area tech stocks hammered as market plunges   [05:57PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Tech stocks hammered as market plunges   [05:45PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Imperva Inc (NASDAQ:IMPV) Is Trading At A 36.37% Discount   [Sep-04-18 10:23AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Imperva Completes the Acquisition of Prevoty   [Aug-13-18 04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ Imperva to Present at Upcoming Conferences   [Aug-03-18 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Imperva shares down 12% on sales miss   [Jul-26-18 05:34PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Imperva's Earnings Outlook   [08:32AM  Benzinga]
▶ Imperva to Present at Upcoming Conferences   [May-08-18 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Imperva: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-26-18 06:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ Imperva Appoints David Woodcock to Lead Worldwide Sales   [Apr-11-18 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Imperva to Report First Quarter 2018 Financial Results   [Apr-10-18 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Imperva Announces Transition of Its Chairman of the Board   [Feb-21-18 04:03PM  Business Wire]
▶ Imperva to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Feb-20-18 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Imperva beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-08-18 06:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Imperva, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [01:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ How to Invest in Israel's Top Cybersecurity Stocks   [Jan-26-18 05:46PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Imperva Appoints David Gee as Chief Marketing Officer   [Jan-11-18 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Imperva Appoints Mike Burns as CFO   [Jan-02-18 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Imperva Named a Leader in DDoS Mitigation Solutions   [Dec-11-17 07:03AM  Business Wire]
▶ Imperva reports 3Q loss   [Nov-08-17 05:15PM  Associated Press]

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