Intrinsic value of InterNAP - INAP

Previous Close

$5.16

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

-193%

Previous close

$5.16

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-193%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of INAP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -6.29
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  298
  304
  311
  319
  328
  338
  349
  361
  373
  387
  402
  418
  435
  453
  472
  493
  514
  537
  561
  587
  614
  642
  672
  704
  737
  772
  809
  848
  889
  932
  978
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  328
  336
  344
  354
  365
  376
  389
  402
  417
  433
  445
  463
  482
  503
  524
  547
  572
  597
  625
  653
  684
  716
  749
  785
  822
  861
  903
  946
  992
  1,040
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  391
  328
  336
  344
  354
  365
  376
  389
  402
  417
  433
  445
  463
  482
  503
  524
  547
  572
  597
  625
  653
  684
  716
  749
  785
  822
  861
  903
  946
  992
  1,040
Operating income, $m
  -93
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
EBITDA, $m
  -16
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
  147
  155
Interest expense (income), $m
  30
  29
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  86
  90
Earnings before tax, $m
  -124
  -54
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -153
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -125
  -54
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -153

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  431
  429
  439
  450
  463
  477
  493
  509
  528
  547
  568
  591
  615
  640
  667
  696
  726
  759
  793
  829
  867
  907
  950
  994
  1,041
  1,091
  1,143
  1,198
  1,256
  1,317
  1,381
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  421
  429
  439
  450
  463
  477
  493
  509
  528
  547
  568
  591
  615
  640
  667
  696
  726
  759
  793
  829
  867
  907
  950
  994
  1,041
  1,091
  1,143
  1,198
  1,256
  1,317
  1,381
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.708
  0.709
  0.708
  0.709
  0.708
  0.709
  0.708
  0.709
  0.706
  0.707
  0.708
  0.707
  0.707
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.707
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.707
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
  0.708
Average production assets, $m
  550
  561
  574
  589
  605
  624
  644
  666
  689
  715
  742
  772
  803
  837
  872
  910
  949
  992
  1,036
  1,083
  1,133
  1,186
  1,241
  1,300
  1,361
  1,426
  1,494
  1,566
  1,641
  1,721
  1,805
Working capital, $m
  -16
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
Total debt, $m
  374
  325
  334
  344
  356
  368
  382
  397
  414
  431
  450
  471
  492
  515
  539
  565
  593
  622
  653
  685
  719
  756
  794
  834
  876
  921
  968
  1,017
  1,069
  1,124
  1,182
Total liabilities, $m
  434
  386
  395
  405
  417
  429
  443
  458
  475
  492
  511
  532
  553
  576
  600
  626
  654
  683
  714
  746
  780
  817
  855
  895
  937
  982
  1,029
  1,078
  1,130
  1,185
  1,243
Total equity, $m
  -4
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  430
  429
  439
  450
  463
  477
  492
  509
  528
  547
  568
  591
  614
  640
  667
  696
  727
  759
  793
  829
  867
  908
  950
  994
  1,041
  1,091
  1,143
  1,198
  1,256
  1,317
  1,381
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -93.500
  7.580
  7.610
  7.650
  7.680
  7.720
  7.760
  7.800
  7.840
  7.890
  7.930
  7.970
  8.010
  8.050
  8.090
  8.120
  8.160
  8.200
  8.230
  8.260
  8.300
  8.330
  8.360
  8.390
  8.410
  8.440
  8.470
  8.490
  8.510
  8.540
  8.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.033
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -125
  -54
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -153
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  77
  73
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
Funds from operations, $m
  55
  19
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  46
  19
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -66
  -68
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -207
New CAPEX, $m
  -46
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -84
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -46
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -265
  -277
  -291
Free cash flow, $m
  0
  -58
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -224
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -8
  -39
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  101
  52
  53
  55
  57
  58
  60
  63
  65
  67
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  159
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -8
  62
  61
  63
  66
  70
  72
  75
  79
  83
  86
  85
  90
  94
  98
  104
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  170
  178
  186
  196
  206
  217
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -7
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  118
  -101
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -97
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
Discount rate, %
 
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.50
  18.38
  19.30
  20.26
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
  24.63
  25.86
  27.15
  28.51
  29.94
  31.43
  33.01
  34.66
  36.39
  38.21
  40.12
  42.12
  44.23
  46.44
  48.76
  51.20
  53.76
  56.45
  59.27
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -85
  -36
  -32
  -28
  -24
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -9
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  22.6
  10.2
  4.6
  2.1
  0.9
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Internap Corporation is a technology provider of Internet infrastructure. The Company provides Internet infrastructure through both Colocation Business and Enterprise Services and Cloud Services. The Company operates through two segments: Data Center and Network Services, and Cloud and Hosting Services. Its Data Center and Network Services segment consists of colocation and Internet Protocol (IP) connectivity services. Colocation involves providing physical space within data centers and associated services, such as power, interconnection, environmental controls, monitoring and security while allowing its customers to deploy and manage their servers, storage and other equipment in its secure data centers. Its cloud and hosting services segment consists of hosted Infrastructure-as-a-Service as a cloud platform or through managed hosting. For both Infrastructure-as-a-Service options, the Company provides and maintains the hardware, data center infrastructure and interconnection.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  InterNAP (INAP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.4
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book -74.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -19.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -9075%
Total Debt to Equity -9350%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -19.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.6%
Return On Total Capital -29.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.4%
Return On Equity -227.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -95.7%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 47.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.9%
EBITDA Margin -5.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Operating Margin -31.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -41.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.4%
Net Profit Margin -41.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.9%
Effective Tax Rate -0.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

INAP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the INAP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $298 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by InterNAP. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of InterNAP. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our INAP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.4%, whose default value for INAP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of InterNAP, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of InterNAP.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of INAP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 108.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for INAP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8% for InterNAP.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for InterNAP. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the INAP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for INAP are equal to 184.6%.

Life of production assets of 8.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in InterNAP operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for INAP is equal to -5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-4 million for InterNAP - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 82.922 million for InterNAP is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of InterNAP at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Internap Corp. : October 10, 2017   [Oct-10-17 11:32AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Internap Corp. : September 20, 2017   [Sep-19-17 11:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Internap Corp. : August 25, 2017   [Aug-25-17 04:40PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Sovrn Chooses INAP's AgileSERVER Hosting Platform   [Aug-22-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Internap Network reports 2Q loss   [Aug-03-17 11:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ Penny Stocks to Watch for June 2017 (CYTR, DELT)   [Jun-30-17 04:01PM  Investopedia]
▶ Penny Stocks to Watch for June 2017   [May-31-17 09:46AM  Investopedia]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Internap Corp. : May 25, 2017   [May-25-17 12:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Bull Of The Day: Internap (INAP)   [05:52AM  Zacks]
▶ Is Internap Corp (INAP) Going to Burn These Hedge Funds?   [Dec-10-16 10:31AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Rackspace: Math Supports a $32 Take-Out Price, Says Wells   [Aug-05-16 12:13PM  at Barrons.com]
Financial statements of INAP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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