Intrinsic value of Infinity Pharmaceuticals - INFI

Previous Close

$1.99

  Intrinsic Value

$0.40

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-80%

Previous close

$1.99

 
Intrinsic value

$0.40

 
Up/down potential

-80%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of INFI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -82.57
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
Total operating expenses, $m
  50
  51
  53
  54
  55
  56
  59
  60
  62
  65
  67
  69
  72
  74
  78
  80
  83
  87
  90
  95
  98
  102
  107
  111
  117
  121
  127
  132
  138
  145
  151
Operating income, $m
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
EBITDA, $m
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Earnings before tax, $m
  -30
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -30
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  92
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  126
  35
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.559
  0.543
  0.571
  0.556
  0.568
  0.564
  0.550
  0.561
  0.558
  0.568
  0.565
  0.563
  0.560
  0.558
  0.556
  0.554
  0.559
  0.557
  0.563
  0.552
  0.557
  0.562
  0.558
  0.563
  0.560
  0.557
  0.565
  0.557
  0.564
  0.557
  0.559
Average production assets, $m
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
Working capital, $m
  78
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
Total debt, $m
  20
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  24
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
Total liabilities, $m
  43
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
Total equity, $m
  82
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  125
  34
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  53
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  107
  111
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.244
  2.080
  2.230
  2.400
  2.580
  2.770
  2.970
  3.170
  3.370
  3.570
  3.770
  3.970
  4.160
  4.360
  4.550
  4.730
  4.910
  5.080
  5.250
  5.410
  5.570
  5.720
  5.870
  6.010
  6.150
  6.280
  6.400
  6.520
  6.630
  6.740
  6.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.294
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -30
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
Funds from operations, $m
  -183
  -30
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
Change in working capital, $m
  -29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  -154
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from investing activities, $m
  40
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -13
Free cash flow, $m
  -114
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -13
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  46
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  98
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -114
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  17
  -46
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  92
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  46
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  44
  -30
  -29
  -28
  -27
  -26
  -25
  -24
  -23
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -17
  -16
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  5.7
  0.7
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Infinity Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the discovery, development and delivery of medicines to treat diseases. The Company develops small molecule drugs that target disease pathways for potential applications in oncology. Its product candidate is duvelisib, also known as IPI-145, is an oral, dual-inhibitor of the delta and gamma isoforms of phosphoinositide-3-kinase (PI3K), for the treatment of hematologic malignancies, or blood cancers. The Company is also developing IPI-549, which is an orally administered, clinical-stage, immuno-oncology product candidate that selectively inhibits the gamma isoform of PI3K. In addition to duvelisib, the Company focuses to generate new product candidates for potential investigation in oncology. The Company also focuses on developing DYNAMO, CONTEMPO, BRAVURA, FRESCO, DYNAMO+R, DUO, SYNCHRONY and Duvelisib + Venetoclax.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Infinity Pharmaceuticals (INFI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.3
Price to Sales 5.3
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -82.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -83.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 24.4%
Total Debt to Equity 24.4%
Interest Coverage -29
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -14%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.4%
Return On Total Capital -27.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -37.8%
Return On Equity -33.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -41.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -136.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -86.9%
Operating Margin -163.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -94.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -157.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -95.2%
Net Profit Margin -157.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -95.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

INFI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the INFI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $19 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Infinity Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Infinity Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our INFI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for INFI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Infinity Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Infinity Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of INFI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 205.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $11 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for INFI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for Infinity Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Infinity Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the INFI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for INFI are equal to 134.2%.

Life of production assets of 8.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Infinity Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for INFI is equal to -73.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $82 million for Infinity Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.689 million for Infinity Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Infinity Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Infinity reports 3Q loss   [Nov-07-17 08:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Infinity to Host Investor Reception and Webcast at SITC   [Nov-06-17 08:02AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Infinity To Present At The 2017 BIO Investor Forum   [Oct-10-17 08:32AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Infinity reports 2Q loss   [Aug-03-17 11:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ Infinity to Participate in Three Upcoming Conferences   [Jun-14-17 08:32AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Infinity reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 05:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ What Makes Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) a Strong Sell?   [Mar-30-17 08:51AM  Investopedia]
▶ Should You Get Rid of Patheon (PTHN) Now?   [08:47AM  Investopedia]
▶ What Makes Tesaro (TSRO) a Strong Sell?   [08:42AM  Investopedia]
▶ Infinity Announces Organizational Changes   [08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Infinity Pharmaceuticals Inc. (INFI) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-10-16 04:38PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of INFI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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