Intrinsic value of Summit Hotel Properties - INN

Previous Close

$14.17

  Intrinsic Value

$3.22

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-77%

Previous close

$14.17

 
Intrinsic value

$3.22

 
Up/down potential

-77%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as INN.

We calculate the intrinsic value of INN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.70
  8.33
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.18
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.17
Revenue, $m
  560
  606
  655
  705
  758
  812
  869
  928
  989
  1,052
  1,119
  1,187
  1,259
  1,334
  1,412
  1,493
  1,578
  1,667
  1,760
  1,856
  1,957
  2,063
  2,174
  2,290
  2,411
  2,538
  2,671
  2,810
  2,956
  3,109
Variable operating expenses, $m
  463
  502
  542
  583
  627
  672
  718
  767
  818
  870
  925
  982
  1,041
  1,103
  1,168
  1,235
  1,305
  1,379
  1,455
  1,535
  1,619
  1,706
  1,798
  1,894
  1,994
  2,099
  2,209
  2,324
  2,445
  2,571
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  463
  502
  542
  583
  627
  672
  718
  767
  818
  870
  925
  982
  1,041
  1,103
  1,168
  1,235
  1,305
  1,379
  1,455
  1,535
  1,619
  1,706
  1,798
  1,894
  1,994
  2,099
  2,209
  2,324
  2,445
  2,571
Operating income, $m
  97
  105
  113
  122
  131
  141
  150
  160
  171
  182
  194
  205
  218
  231
  244
  258
  273
  288
  304
  321
  339
  357
  376
  396
  417
  439
  462
  486
  511
  538
EBITDA, $m
  293
  317
  343
  369
  397
  425
  455
  486
  518
  551
  586
  622
  659
  698
  739
  782
  826
  873
  921
  972
  1,025
  1,080
  1,138
  1,199
  1,262
  1,329
  1,398
  1,471
  1,548
  1,628
Interest expense (income), $m
  26
  47
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  178
  188
  199
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258
  272
  286
Earnings before tax, $m
  50
  54
  57
  61
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  145
  152
  160
  169
  177
  187
  196
  206
  217
  228
  240
  252
Tax expense, $m
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
Net income, $m
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  111
  117
  123
  130
  136
  143
  151
  158
  166
  175
  184

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,403
  2,603
  2,811
  3,027
  3,252
  3,486
  3,729
  3,981
  4,243
  4,516
  4,801
  5,096
  5,404
  5,725
  6,060
  6,409
  6,774
  7,154
  7,552
  7,967
  8,401
  8,855
  9,330
  9,827
  10,348
  10,893
  11,463
  12,061
  12,688
  13,344
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,403
  2,603
  2,811
  3,027
  3,252
  3,486
  3,729
  3,981
  4,243
  4,516
  4,801
  5,096
  5,404
  5,725
  6,060
  6,409
  6,774
  7,154
  7,552
  7,967
  8,401
  8,855
  9,330
  9,827
  10,348
  10,893
  11,463
  12,061
  12,688
  13,344
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
  0.233
Average production assets, $m
  1,962
  2,126
  2,296
  2,472
  2,656
  2,847
  3,045
  3,251
  3,465
  3,688
  3,920
  4,162
  4,414
  4,676
  4,949
  5,234
  5,532
  5,843
  6,167
  6,506
  6,861
  7,232
  7,620
  8,026
  8,451
  8,896
  9,362
  9,850
  10,361
  10,898
Working capital, $m
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
Total debt, $m
  950
  1,034
  1,122
  1,214
  1,309
  1,408
  1,511
  1,617
  1,728
  1,844
  1,964
  2,089
  2,219
  2,355
  2,497
  2,645
  2,799
  2,960
  3,128
  3,303
  3,487
  3,679
  3,880
  4,090
  4,310
  4,541
  4,782
  5,035
  5,300
  5,578
Total liabilities, $m
  1,016
  1,101
  1,189
  1,281
  1,376
  1,474
  1,577
  1,684
  1,795
  1,910
  2,031
  2,156
  2,286
  2,422
  2,563
  2,711
  2,865
  3,026
  3,194
  3,370
  3,554
  3,746
  3,947
  4,157
  4,377
  4,608
  4,849
  5,102
  5,367
  5,645
Total equity, $m
  1,386
  1,502
  1,622
  1,747
  1,876
  2,011
  2,151
  2,297
  2,448
  2,606
  2,770
  2,941
  3,118
  3,304
  3,497
  3,698
  3,908
  4,128
  4,357
  4,597
  4,847
  5,109
  5,384
  5,670
  5,971
  6,285
  6,614
  6,959
  7,321
  7,699
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,402
  2,603
  2,811
  3,028
  3,252
  3,485
  3,728
  3,981
  4,243
  4,516
  4,801
  5,097
  5,404
  5,726
  6,060
  6,409
  6,773
  7,154
  7,551
  7,967
  8,401
  8,855
  9,331
  9,827
  10,348
  10,893
  11,463
  12,061
  12,688
  13,344
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577
  0.577

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  111
  117
  123
  130
  136
  143
  151
  158
  166
  175
  184
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  196
  213
  230
  247
  266
  285
  304
  325
  347
  369
  392
  416
  441
  468
  495
  523
  553
  584
  617
  651
  686
  723
  762
  803
  845
  890
  936
  985
  1,036
  1,090
Funds from operations, $m
  233
  252
  271
  292
  313
  336
  359
  383
  408
  434
  461
  489
  518
  549
  580
  614
  648
  684
  722
  762
  803
  846
  891
  939
  988
  1,040
  1,094
  1,151
  1,211
  1,273
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  233
  252
  272
  293
  314
  336
  360
  384
  409
  435
  462
  490
  519
  550
  582
  615
  650
  686
  724
  763
  805
  848
  893
  941
  990
  1,042
  1,096
  1,153
  1,213
  1,276
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -181
  -196
  -213
  -230
  -247
  -266
  -285
  -304
  -325
  -347
  -369
  -392
  -416
  -441
  -468
  -495
  -523
  -553
  -584
  -617
  -651
  -686
  -723
  -762
  -803
  -845
  -890
  -936
  -985
  -1,036
New CAPEX, $m
  -155
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -242
  -252
  -262
  -273
  -285
  -298
  -311
  -325
  -339
  -355
  -371
  -388
  -406
  -425
  -445
  -466
  -488
  -512
  -536
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -336
  -359
  -383
  -407
  -431
  -457
  -483
  -510
  -539
  -570
  -601
  -634
  -668
  -703
  -741
  -780
  -821
  -864
  -909
  -956
  -1,006
  -1,057
  -1,111
  -1,168
  -1,228
  -1,290
  -1,356
  -1,424
  -1,497
  -1,572
Free cash flow, $m
  -103
  -107
  -110
  -113
  -117
  -120
  -123
  -127
  -131
  -135
  -139
  -144
  -149
  -154
  -159
  -165
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -218
  -227
  -237
  -248
  -259
  -271
  -283
  -297
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  81
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
  265
  278
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  75
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  93
  95
  98
  101
  104
  108
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  156
  161
  166
  172
  177
  183
  189
  195
  201
  208
  215
  223
  231
  240
  250
  259
  269
  280
  292
  305
  318
  331
  346
  361
  377
  394
  412
  432
  452
  473
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  168
  176
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -151
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -229
  -240
  -251
  -262
  -274
  -287
  -300
  -314
  -329
  -345
  -361
  -379
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -58
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -203
Discount rate, %
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.51
  9.99
  10.49
  11.01
  11.57
  12.14
  12.75
  13.39
  14.06
  14.76
  15.50
  16.27
  17.09
  17.94
  18.84
  19.78
  20.77
  21.81
  22.90
  24.04
  25.25
  26.51
  27.83
  29.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -54
  -53
  -51
  -49
  -46
  -43
  -40
  -36
  -33
  -30
  -26
  -23
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  94.9
  90.4
  86.3
  82.6
  79.2
  76.2
  73.3
  70.7
  68.2
  66.0
  63.8
  61.9
  60.0
  58.2
  56.5
  54.9
  53.4
  52.0
  50.6
  49.3
  48.0
  46.8
  45.6
  44.5
  43.4
  42.4
  41.3
  40.3
  39.4
  38.4

Summit Hotel Properties, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company is focused primarily on owning premium-branded, select-service hotels in the Upscale segment of the United States lodging industry. The Company's portfolio consists of 83 hotels with a total of 12,242 guestrooms located in 26 states. The Company's hotels are located in markets, such as business and corporate headquarters, retail centers, airports and tourist attractions. The Company's portfolio is located in urban and suburban markets. Based on total number of guestrooms, approximately 89% of the Company's portfolio is positioned in over 50 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and approximately 96% is located within over 100 MSAs. Based on total number of guestrooms, approximately 99% of the Company's hotels operate under franchise brands owned by Marriott International, Inc., Hilton Worldwide, InterContinental Hotels Group, and an affiliate of Hyatt Hotels Corporation.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Summit Hotel Properties (INN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.3
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -12.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 3.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 64.6%
Total Debt to Equity 64.6%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 6.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Equity 11.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.4%
EBITDA Margin 43.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.5%
Operating Margin 17.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 22.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.3%
Net Profit Margin 22.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.3%
Effective Tax Rate -0.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Payout Ratio 62%

INN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the INN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $515 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Summit Hotel Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Summit Hotel Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our INN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.1%, whose default value for INN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Summit Hotel Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Summit Hotel Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of INN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for INN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Summit Hotel Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Summit Hotel Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the INN stock is equal to 1.1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for INN are equal to 350.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Summit Hotel Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for INN is equal to -1.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1275 million for Summit Hotel Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 99 million for Summit Hotel Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Summit Hotel Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
AHT Ashford Hospit 8.18 19.76  str.buy
RLJ RLJ Lodging Tr 23.09 12.94  sell
HPT Hospitality Pr 28.93 339.27  str.buy
CHSP Chesapeake Lod 32.61 111.10  str.buy
SOHO Sotherly Hotel 6.93 98.92  str.buy
AHP Ashford Hospit 10.38 11.18  hold
HT Hersha Hospita 22.33 15.32  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Summit Hotel Properties: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Summit Hotel Properties reports 4Q results   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Summit Hotel Properties reports 3Q results   [Oct-30-17 06:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ Crowdfund a downpayment for a home   [Oct-12-17 01:40PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Summit Hotel Properties reports 2Q results   [Aug-04-17 01:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ Summit Hotel Properties Appoints Independent Director   [Jul-10-17 04:35PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Summit Hotel Properties reports 1Q results   [May-04-17 05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cincinnatis 1st Dolce Hotel tops out, gets a new name: PHOTOS   [Mar-22-17 10:25AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Cincinnatis 1st Dolce Hotel tops out, gets a new name: PHOTOS   [10:25AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Summit Hotel Properties reports 4Q results   [Feb-23-17 05:17PM  Associated Press]
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