Intrinsic value of Inovio Pharmaceuticals - INO

Previous Close

$4.32

  Intrinsic Value

$0.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

Previous close

$4.32

 
Intrinsic value

$0.38

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of INO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.40
  17.96
  16.66
  15.50
  14.45
  13.50
  12.65
  11.89
  11.20
  10.58
  10.02
  9.52
  9.07
  8.66
  8.29
  7.96
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.03
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
Revenue, $m
  50
  59
  69
  80
  91
  104
  117
  131
  145
  160
  177
  193
  211
  229
  248
  268
  288
  310
  332
  355
  379
  404
  430
  457
  485
  514
  545
  577
  610
  644
Variable operating expenses, $m
  104
  123
  143
  165
  188
  213
  240
  268
  298
  330
  361
  395
  431
  468
  507
  548
  590
  633
  678
  726
  775
  826
  879
  934
  991
  1,051
  1,113
  1,178
  1,246
  1,317
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  40
  41
  42
  43
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  60
  62
  63
  64
  66
  67
  69
  70
  72
  73
  75
Total operating expenses, $m
  144
  164
  185
  208
  231
  257
  285
  314
  345
  378
  411
  446
  483
  521
  561
  603
  646
  691
  737
  786
  837
  889
  943
  1,000
  1,058
  1,120
  1,183
  1,250
  1,319
  1,392
Operating income, $m
  -94
  -104
  -115
  -127
  -140
  -154
  -169
  -184
  -201
  -218
  -234
  -252
  -272
  -292
  -313
  -335
  -357
  -381
  -405
  -431
  -457
  -485
  -513
  -543
  -573
  -605
  -639
  -673
  -710
  -747
EBITDA, $m
  -89
  -98
  -109
  -120
  -132
  -145
  -159
  -173
  -188
  -204
  -221
  -238
  -256
  -275
  -295
  -315
  -336
  -358
  -381
  -405
  -429
  -455
  -481
  -509
  -538
  -568
  -599
  -631
  -665
  -700
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
Earnings before tax, $m
  -94
  -105
  -116
  -129
  -143
  -157
  -172
  -189
  -206
  -224
  -241
  -260
  -280
  -302
  -324
  -347
  -370
  -395
  -421
  -447
  -475
  -504
  -534
  -565
  -597
  -631
  -666
  -702
  -740
  -780
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -94
  -105
  -116
  -129
  -143
  -157
  -172
  -189
  -206
  -224
  -241
  -260
  -280
  -302
  -324
  -347
  -370
  -395
  -421
  -447
  -475
  -504
  -534
  -565
  -597
  -631
  -666
  -702
  -740
  -780

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  113
  134
  156
  180
  206
  234
  263
  295
  328
  362
  399
  436
  476
  517
  560
  605
  651
  699
  749
  802
  856
  912
  970
  1,031
  1,095
  1,161
  1,230
  1,301
  1,376
  1,454
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  113
  134
  156
  180
  206
  234
  263
  295
  328
  362
  399
  436
  476
  517
  560
  605
  651
  699
  749
  802
  856
  912
  970
  1,031
  1,095
  1,161
  1,230
  1,301
  1,376
  1,454
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.442
  0.440
  0.442
  0.444
  0.442
  0.444
  0.445
  0.444
  0.442
  0.442
  0.444
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.442
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.444
  0.443
  0.443
Average production assets, $m
  37
  43
  51
  59
  67
  76
  86
  96
  107
  118
  130
  142
  155
  168
  182
  197
  212
  227
  244
  261
  278
  297
  316
  335
  356
  377
  400
  423
  448
  473
Working capital, $m
  -29
  -34
  -40
  -46
  -52
  -59
  -67
  -75
  -83
  -92
  -101
  -111
  -121
  -131
  -142
  -154
  -165
  -178
  -190
  -203
  -217
  -231
  -246
  -262
  -278
  -295
  -312
  -330
  -349
  -369
Total debt, $m
  8
  18
  28
  40
  52
  65
  79
  94
  109
  125
  142
  160
  179
  198
  219
  240
  261
  284
  308
  332
  358
  384
  412
  441
  470
  501
  534
  568
  603
  640
Total liabilities, $m
  53
  63
  73
  85
  97
  110
  124
  139
  154
  171
  188
  206
  224
  244
  264
  285
  307
  329
  353
  378
  403
  430
  457
  486
  516
  547
  579
  613
  648
  685
Total equity, $m
  60
  71
  82
  95
  109
  124
  139
  156
  173
  192
  211
  231
  252
  274
  296
  320
  344
  370
  396
  424
  453
  482
  513
  546
  579
  614
  650
  688
  728
  769
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  113
  134
  155
  180
  206
  234
  263
  295
  327
  363
  399
  437
  476
  518
  560
  605
  651
  699
  749
  802
  856
  912
  970
  1,032
  1,095
  1,161
  1,229
  1,301
  1,376
  1,454
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.130
  0.250
  0.340
  0.420
  0.480
  0.520
  0.570
  0.600
  0.630
  0.650
  0.680
  0.690
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -94
  -105
  -116
  -129
  -143
  -157
  -172
  -189
  -206
  -224
  -241
  -260
  -280
  -302
  -324
  -347
  -370
  -395
  -421
  -447
  -475
  -504
  -534
  -565
  -597
  -631
  -666
  -702
  -740
  -780
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
Funds from operations, $m
  -89
  -99
  -110
  -121
  -134
  -148
  -162
  -177
  -193
  -210
  -228
  -246
  -265
  -285
  -306
  -327
  -349
  -372
  -396
  -421
  -447
  -474
  -502
  -531
  -561
  -593
  -626
  -660
  -695
  -733
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Cash from operations, $m
  -84
  -93
  -104
  -115
  -128
  -141
  -155
  -169
  -185
  -201
  -218
  -236
  -255
  -274
  -295
  -316
  -337
  -360
  -384
  -408
  -434
  -460
  -487
  -516
  -545
  -576
  -608
  -642
  -676
  -713
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
Free cash flow, $m
  -93
  -104
  -115
  -128
  -142
  -156
  -172
  -188
  -205
  -223
  -242
  -262
  -282
  -303
  -325
  -348
  -372
  -397
  -423
  -449
  -477
  -506
  -536
  -567
  -600
  -633
  -668
  -705
  -743
  -783
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  8
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  104
  115
  128
  142
  156
  172
  188
  205
  223
  242
  260
  280
  301
  323
  346
  370
  395
  421
  447
  475
  504
  534
  565
  597
  631
  666
  702
  740
  780
  821
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  112
  125
  138
  153
  168
  185
  202
  220
  239
  258
  277
  298
  320
  342
  366
  391
  417
  444
  471
  500
  529
  561
  593
  626
  661
  697
  734
  774
  815
  858
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -104
  -115
  -128
  -142
  -156
  -172
  -188
  -205
  -223
  -242
  -260
  -280
  -301
  -323
  -346
  -370
  -395
  -421
  -447
  -475
  -504
  -534
  -565
  -597
  -631
  -666
  -702
  -740
  -780
  -821
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  92
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  40
  44
  48
  53
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  121
  129
  136
  144
  152
Cash available for distribution, $m
  7
  -94
  -105
  -117
  -130
  -143
  -158
  -173
  -190
  -207
  -225
  -244
  -263
  -284
  -305
  -327
  -350
  -374
  -399
  -425
  -452
  -480
  -508
  -538
  -570
  -602
  -636
  -671
  -708
  -746
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  7
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -107
  -108
  -109
  -108
  -107
  -104
  -100
  -95
  -90
  -83
  -76
  -69
  -61
  -54
  -47
  -40
  -33
  -27
  -22
  -18
  -14
  -10
  -8
  -6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  54.6
  30.8
  17.8
  10.6
  6.4
  3.9
  2.4
  1.5
  1.0
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Inovio) is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, which is involved in developing deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) immunotherapies and vaccines focused on treating and preventing cancers and infectious diseases. The Company's DNA-based immunotherapies, in combination with its electroporation delivery devices, generates immune responses, in particular T cells, in the body to fight target diseases. It has completed, current or planned clinical programs of its SynCon immunotherapies for human papillomavirus (HPV)-caused pre-cancers and cancers, influenza, prostate cancer, breast/lung/pancreatic cancer, hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), Ebola, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Zika virus. With its immunotherapy platform, as well as with its CELLECTRA electroporation delivery technology, it has a pipeline of pre-clinical and clinical stage products that have generated in vivo immune responses.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.3
Price to Sales 9.1
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -38.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.2%
Return On Total Capital -49.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -38%
Return On Equity -49.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -38%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -202.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -204.5%
Operating Margin -220%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -234.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -211.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -215.7%
Net Profit Margin -211.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -214.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

INO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the INO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $42 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Inovio Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Inovio Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our INO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for INO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Inovio Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Inovio Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of INO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 208.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $39 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for INO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Inovio Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Inovio Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the INO stock is equal to 25%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for INO are equal to 73.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Inovio Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for INO is equal to -57.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $142 million for Inovio Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 82 million for Inovio Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Inovio Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Is Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. a Buy?   [Jul-08-18 11:42AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Are These 2 Dark Horse Vaccine Makers Worth the Risk?   [Jun-16-18 07:33AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Inovio: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 07:09PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (INO) a Buy?   [Apr-30-18 08:04AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Benzinga Pro's 5 Stocks To Watch Today   [Apr-11-18 08:34AM  Benzinga]
▶ $43M deal: Inovio finalizes restructured collaboration with Chinese biopharm firm   [Mar-20-18 10:52AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Inovio reports 4Q loss   [05:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ Inovio lands $4.6M in funding for malaria, tuberculosis vaccines   [Feb-12-18 10:50AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 3 Stocks Under $10 That Surged Yesterday   [02:05PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ 3 Stocks Under $10 That Surged Today   [Jan-23-18 06:44PM  Zacks]
▶ Inovio revamps China deal; nets $23M upfront payment   [Jan-02-18 05:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Why Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc. Is Sinking Today   [Nov-09-17 02:53PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Inovio reports 3Q loss   [Nov-08-17 07:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Inovio Pharmaceuticals Stock Sank in October   [Nov-07-17 07:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Montco vaccine developer posts positive results from Lassa fever virus study   [Oct-24-17 11:50AM  American City Business Journals]
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