Intrinsic value of Inovalon Holdings Cl A - INOV

Previous Close

$11.55

  Intrinsic Value

$5.31

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-54%

Previous close

$11.55

 
Intrinsic value

$5.31

 
Up/down potential

-54%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of INOV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  472
  496
  521
  548
  575
  604
  635
  667
  701
  736
  773
  812
  853
  896
  941
  988
  1,037
  1,089
  1,144
  1,201
  1,262
  1,325
  1,391
  1,461
  1,534
  1,611
  1,691
  1,776
  1,865
  1,958
Variable operating expenses, $m
  429
  449
  471
  493
  517
  542
  568
  595
  624
  654
  658
  691
  726
  762
  800
  841
  883
  927
  974
  1,022
  1,074
  1,127
  1,184
  1,243
  1,305
  1,371
  1,439
  1,511
  1,587
  1,666
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  429
  449
  471
  493
  517
  542
  568
  595
  624
  654
  658
  691
  726
  762
  800
  841
  883
  927
  974
  1,022
  1,074
  1,127
  1,184
  1,243
  1,305
  1,371
  1,439
  1,511
  1,587
  1,666
Operating income, $m
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  155
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
  218
  229
  240
  252
  265
  278
  292
EBITDA, $m
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
  220
  231
  243
  255
  268
  281
  295
  310
  326
  342
  359
  377
  396
  416
  437
  458
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
Earnings before tax, $m
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  229
Tax expense, $m
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
Net income, $m
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  68
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  673
  707
  743
  781
  821
  862
  906
  951
  999
  1,050
  1,103
  1,158
  1,216
  1,278
  1,342
  1,409
  1,480
  1,554
  1,632
  1,714
  1,800
  1,890
  1,984
  2,084
  2,188
  2,298
  2,413
  2,534
  2,660
  2,794
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  673
  707
  743
  781
  821
  862
  906
  951
  999
  1,050
  1,103
  1,158
  1,216
  1,278
  1,342
  1,409
  1,480
  1,554
  1,632
  1,714
  1,800
  1,890
  1,984
  2,084
  2,188
  2,298
  2,413
  2,534
  2,660
  2,794
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.701
  0.702
  0.701
  0.702
  0.700
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.702
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
Average production assets, $m
  402
  422
  443
  466
  490
  514
  540
  568
  596
  626
  658
  691
  726
  762
  800
  841
  883
  927
  974
  1,022
  1,074
  1,127
  1,184
  1,243
  1,305
  1,371
  1,439
  1,511
  1,587
  1,667
Working capital, $m
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
Total debt, $m
  219
  235
  253
  271
  290
  310
  330
  352
  375
  399
  425
  451
  479
  509
  539
  572
  605
  641
  678
  718
  759
  802
  847
  895
  945
  997
  1,052
  1,110
  1,171
  1,235
Total liabilities, $m
  322
  339
  356
  374
  393
  413
  434
  456
  479
  503
  528
  555
  583
  612
  643
  675
  709
  744
  782
  821
  862
  905
  951
  998
  1,048
  1,101
  1,156
  1,214
  1,274
  1,338
Total equity, $m
  351
  369
  387
  407
  428
  449
  472
  496
  521
  547
  574
  603
  634
  666
  699
  734
  771
  810
  850
  893
  938
  985
  1,034
  1,086
  1,140
  1,197
  1,257
  1,320
  1,386
  1,455
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  673
  708
  743
  781
  821
  862
  906
  952
  1,000
  1,050
  1,102
  1,158
  1,217
  1,278
  1,342
  1,409
  1,480
  1,554
  1,632
  1,714
  1,800
  1,890
  1,985
  2,084
  2,188
  2,298
  2,413
  2,534
  2,660
  2,793
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.620
  0.640
  0.650
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521
  0.521

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  68
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  113
  118
  124
  131
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
Funds from operations, $m
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
  135
  134
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  179
  187
  197
  206
  216
  227
  238
  250
  262
  275
  289
  303
  318
  334
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  201
  211
  221
  232
  243
  255
  268
  281
  295
  309
  325
  341
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
Free cash flow, $m
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  72
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  159
  166
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  309
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
Cash available for distribution, $m
  343
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  41
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  329
  32
  31
  31
  30
  29
  28
  27
  26
  24
  19
  18
  17
  16
  14
  13
  12
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Inovalon Holdings, Inc. (Inovalon) is a technology company. The Company provides cloud-based platforms empowering a data-driven transformation from volume-based to value-based models to the healthcare industry. Leveraging large-scale data interconnectivity capabilities, unparalleled proprietary data sets, advanced analytics, data-driven intervention systems, and subject matter expertise, Inovalon enables the assessment and improvement of clinical and quality outcomes and financial performance across the healthcare ecosystem. The Company serves clients across the healthcare industry, which includes health plans and provider organizations, pharmaceutical, medical device, and diagnostics companies. It provides technology that supports approximately 500 healthcare organizations. Inovalon's platforms are informed by data pertaining to more than 858,000 physicians, 377,000 clinical facilities, and more than 230 million Americans.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Inovalon Holdings Cl A (INOV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 63.3
Price to Sales 4
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 31.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 19
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 34.6%
Total Debt to Equity 39%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Return On Total Capital 2.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Return On Equity 3.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.6%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 62.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66%
EBITDA Margin 18.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.9%
Operating Margin 8.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Net Profit Margin 6.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Effective Tax Rate 30.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

INOV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the INOV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $449 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Inovalon Holdings Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Inovalon Holdings Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our INOV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for INOV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Inovalon Holdings Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Inovalon Holdings Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of INOV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for INOV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Inovalon Holdings Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Inovalon Holdings Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the INOV stock is equal to 3.9%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for INOV are equal to 85.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Inovalon Holdings Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for INOV is equal to -7.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $643 million for Inovalon Holdings Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 142 million for Inovalon Holdings Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Inovalon Holdings Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Inovalon Holdings: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ Inovalon Reports Second Quarter 2018 Results   [04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Md. health IT firm expects major revenue bump with Walgreens deal   [Jun-27-18 05:59PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Inovalon to close Columbia office, lay off 70 people   [Jun-20-18 01:22PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Inovalon Holdings: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-08-18 06:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ Inovalon Reports First Quarter 2018 Results   [04:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Health IT firm Ability Network to be sold for $1.2B   [Mar-07-18 04:52PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Inovalon to Buy Ability Network for $1.2 Billion   [04:28PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Inovalon enters $1.2B deal to acquire Minneapolis health IT company   [08:45AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Inovalon to Acquire ABILITY Network   [07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Inovalon Holdings misses 4Q profit forecasts   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Inovalon Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results   [Feb-20-18 04:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Inovalon Announces Charitable Giving for 2017   [Jan-03-18 07:55AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Inovalon Holdings tops Street 3Q forecasts   [05:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ Inovalon Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Nov-01-17 04:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [Sep-12-17 05:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Shares of Inovalon Are Soaring Today   [12:58PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Inovalon Holdings beats Street 2Q forecasts   [01:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ Inovalon Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-02-17 04:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ National Health Plans Select Inovalons Integrated Platform   [Jul-17-17 07:55AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Bowie health tech firm Inovalon to lay off 113 employees   [Jun-13-17 01:30PM  American City Business Journals]
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