Intrinsic value of Instructure - INST

Previous Close

$42.30

  Intrinsic Value

$0.14

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$42.30

 
Intrinsic value

$0.14

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of INST stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Instructure (INST) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  52.05
  43.30
  39.47
  36.02
  32.92
  30.13
  27.62
  25.35
  23.32
  21.49
  19.84
  18.35
  17.02
  15.82
  14.74
  13.76
  12.89
  12.10
  11.39
  10.75
  10.17
  9.66
  9.19
  8.77
  8.39
  8.06
  7.75
  7.47
  7.23
  7.00
  6.80
Revenue, $m
  111
  159
  222
  302
  401
  522
  666
  835
  1,030
  1,251
  1,499
  1,774
  2,076
  2,405
  2,759
  3,139
  3,543
  3,972
  4,424
  4,899
  5,398
  5,919
  6,463
  7,030
  7,620
  8,234
  8,872
  9,535
  10,224
  10,940
  11,685
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  163
  228
  310
  412
  536
  684
  857
  1,057
  1,284
  1,538
  1,821
  2,130
  2,467
  2,831
  3,220
  3,635
  4,075
  4,539
  5,027
  5,539
  6,074
  6,632
  7,213
  7,819
  8,449
  9,104
  9,784
  10,491
  11,226
  11,990
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  97
  99
  102
  104
  107
Total operating expenses, $m
  164
  215
  282
  365
  468
  594
  743
  918
  1,119
  1,348
  1,603
  1,888
  2,199
  2,537
  2,903
  3,294
  3,711
  4,153
  4,619
  5,109
  5,623
  6,160
  6,720
  7,303
  7,911
  8,544
  9,201
  9,883
  10,593
  11,330
  12,097
Operating income, $m
  -53
  -57
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -96
  -105
  -113
  -123
  -133
  -144
  -156
  -168
  -181
  -195
  -209
  -224
  -240
  -256
  -273
  -291
  -309
  -328
  -348
  -369
  -390
  -412
EBITDA, $m
  -49
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -102
  -105
  -109
  -112
  -116
  -119
  -123
  -127
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  40
  45
  50
  56
  62
  69
  75
  82
  89
  97
  105
  113
  121
  130
Earnings before tax, $m
  -53
  -57
  -58
  -62
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -87
  -96
  -105
  -116
  -128
  -141
  -155
  -170
  -186
  -203
  -221
  -240
  -260
  -281
  -302
  -325
  -349
  -373
  -399
  -425
  -453
  -482
  -511
  -542
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -54
  -57
  -58
  -62
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -87
  -96
  -105
  -116
  -128
  -141
  -155
  -170
  -186
  -203
  -221
  -240
  -260
  -281
  -302
  -325
  -349
  -373
  -399
  -425
  -453
  -482
  -511
  -542

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  68
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  111
  62
  86
  117
  155
  202
  258
  324
  399
  485
  581
  687
  804
  932
  1,069
  1,216
  1,373
  1,539
  1,714
  1,898
  2,091
  2,293
  2,504
  2,724
  2,952
  3,190
  3,437
  3,694
  3,961
  4,239
  4,527
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  43
  62
  86
  117
  155
  202
  258
  324
  399
  485
  581
  687
  804
  932
  1,069
  1,216
  1,373
  1,539
  1,714
  1,898
  2,091
  2,293
  2,504
  2,724
  2,952
  3,190
  3,437
  3,694
  3,961
  4,239
  4,527
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.581
  2.565
  2.581
  2.581
  2.587
  2.584
  2.581
  2.577
  2.581
  2.579
  2.580
  2.582
  2.582
  2.580
  2.581
  2.581
  2.580
  2.581
  2.581
  2.581
  2.582
  2.581
  2.581
  2.581
  2.581
  2.581
  2.581
  2.581
  2.581
  2.581
  2.581
Average production assets, $m
  14
  19
  27
  37
  49
  64
  81
  102
  126
  153
  183
  216
  253
  293
  337
  383
  432
  485
  540
  598
  659
  722
  788
  858
  930
  1,005
  1,082
  1,163
  1,247
  1,335
  1,426
Working capital, $m
  3
  -93
  -130
  -177
  -235
  -306
  -390
  -489
  -603
  -733
  -878
  -1,040
  -1,217
  -1,409
  -1,617
  -1,839
  -2,076
  -2,327
  -2,592
  -2,871
  -3,163
  -3,469
  -3,787
  -4,120
  -4,465
  -4,825
  -5,199
  -5,588
  -5,991
  -6,411
  -6,847
Total debt, $m
  0
  -46
  -24
  4
  39
  81
  131
  190
  258
  335
  422
  518
  623
  737
  861
  993
  1,134
  1,284
  1,442
  1,607
  1,781
  1,963
  2,153
  2,350
  2,556
  2,770
  2,993
  3,224
  3,464
  3,714
  3,974
Total liabilities, $m
  101
  55
  77
  105
  140
  182
  232
  291
  359
  436
  523
  619
  724
  838
  962
  1,094
  1,235
  1,385
  1,543
  1,708
  1,882
  2,064
  2,254
  2,451
  2,657
  2,871
  3,094
  3,325
  3,565
  3,815
  4,075
Total equity, $m
  10
  6
  9
  12
  16
  20
  26
  32
  40
  48
  58
  69
  80
  93
  107
  122
  137
  154
  171
  190
  209
  229
  250
  272
  295
  319
  344
  369
  396
  424
  453
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  111
  61
  86
  117
  156
  202
  258
  323
  399
  484
  581
  688
  804
  931
  1,069
  1,216
  1,372
  1,539
  1,714
  1,898
  2,091
  2,293
  2,504
  2,723
  2,952
  3,190
  3,438
  3,694
  3,961
  4,239
  4,528
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -7.390
  -2.750
  0.360
  2.500
  4.010
  5.090
  5.880
  6.470
  6.920
  7.260
  7.530
  7.740
  7.920
  8.060
  8.170
  8.260
  8.340
  8.410
  8.470
  8.520
  8.560
  8.600
  8.630
  8.660
  8.680
  8.710
  8.730
  8.750
  8.760
  8.780
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.349
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -54
  -57
  -58
  -62
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -87
  -96
  -105
  -116
  -128
  -141
  -155
  -170
  -186
  -203
  -221
  -240
  -260
  -281
  -302
  -325
  -349
  -373
  -399
  -425
  -453
  -482
  -511
  -542
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  4
  6
  7
  10
  13
  16
  20
  25
  31
  37
  43
  51
  59
  67
  77
  86
  97
  108
  120
  132
  144
  158
  172
  186
  201
  216
  233
  249
  267
  285
Funds from operations, $m
  -5
  -53
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -103
  -109
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -149
  -158
  -167
  -177
  -187
  -198
  -209
  -220
  -232
  -244
  -257
Change in working capital, $m
  17
  -28
  -37
  -47
  -58
  -71
  -84
  -99
  -114
  -130
  -145
  -161
  -177
  -192
  -208
  -222
  -237
  -251
  -265
  -279
  -292
  -305
  -319
  -332
  -346
  -360
  -374
  -389
  -404
  -420
  -436
Cash from operations, $m
  -22
  -24
  -16
  -8
  1
  11
  21
  32
  44
  55
  66
  77
  87
  96
  105
  113
  120
  127
  133
  138
  143
  147
  151
  155
  158
  162
  165
  168
  172
  175
  179
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -25
  -31
  -37
  -43
  -51
  -59
  -67
  -77
  -86
  -97
  -108
  -120
  -132
  -144
  -158
  -172
  -186
  -201
  -216
  -233
  -249
  -267
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -31
  -9
  -12
  -15
  -19
  -25
  -31
  -37
  -44
  -52
  -61
  -71
  -80
  -91
  -102
  -113
  -126
  -138
  -152
  -166
  -181
  -196
  -210
  -227
  -244
  -261
  -279
  -297
  -317
  -336
  -358
Free cash flow, $m
  -53
  -33
  -27
  -23
  -18
  -14
  -9
  -5
  -1
  3
  5
  6
  7
  6
  3
  0
  -5
  -12
  -19
  -28
  -37
  -48
  -59
  -72
  -85
  -99
  -114
  -129
  -145
  -161
  -178
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -46
  22
  28
  35
  42
  50
  59
  68
  77
  87
  96
  105
  115
  124
  132
  141
  149
  158
  166
  174
  182
  190
  198
  206
  214
  223
  231
  240
  250
  260
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  7
  121
  60
  65
  71
  77
  85
  94
  103
  114
  126
  139
  153
  168
  184
  201
  219
  238
  257
  278
  300
  323
  346
  371
  396
  423
  450
  479
  508
  539
  571
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  75
  82
  93
  106
  119
  135
  153
  171
  191
  213
  235
  258
  283
  308
  333
  360
  387
  415
  444
  474
  505
  536
  569
  602
  637
  673
  710
  748
  789
  831
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -46
  42
  55
  70
  87
  106
  126
  148
  171
  194
  217
  241
  264
  288
  310
  333
  354
  375
  396
  416
  437
  457
  476
  497
  517
  538
  559
  581
  604
  627
  652
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  36
  -121
  -60
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -85
  -94
  -103
  -114
  -126
  -139
  -153
  -168
  -184
  -201
  -219
  -238
  -257
  -278
  -300
  -323
  -346
  -371
  -396
  -423
  -450
  -479
  -508
  -539
  -571
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  68
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -11
  -5
  5
  16
  28
  41
  54
  67
  80
  92
  102
  112
  120
  127
  132
  136
  138
  139
  138
  137
  134
  130
  126
  121
  115
  109
  102
  95
  88
  81
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -10
  -5
  4
  13
  22
  30
  37
  42
  46
  48
  49
  48
  46
  43
  39
  34
  30
  26
  21
  17
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  25.3
  14.4
  8.9
  6.0
  4.2
  3.1
  2.3
  1.8
  1.4
  1.2
  1.0
  0.8
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1

Instructure, Inc. provides cloud-based learning management platform for academic institutions and companies across the world. The Company operates in the cloud-based learning management systems segment. The Company builds its learning management applications, Canvas for the education market and Bridge for the corporate market, to enable its customers to develop, deliver and manage face-to-face and online learning experiences. The Company develops software that students, teachers and employees use to help achieve their education and learning goals. Its applications develop academic and corporate learning by providing a platform for instructors and learners, enabling frequent and open interactions, streamlining workflow, and allowing the creation and sharing of content. The Company's platform runs on a cloud-based architecture that enables users to teach, learn and engage across a range of application environments, operating systems, devices and locations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Instructure (INST)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -22.4
Price to Sales 10.9
Price to Book 120.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -54.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -40.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 52.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 51.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -46.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -59.6%
Return On Total Capital -192.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -268%
Return On Equity -192.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -268%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 70.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.8%
EBITDA Margin -44.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -67.1%
Operating Margin -47.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -69.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -47.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -71.2%
Net Profit Margin -48.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -71.5%
Effective Tax Rate -1.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

INST stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the INST stock intrinsic value calculation we used $111 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Instructure. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Instructure. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our INST stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 43.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for INST is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Instructure, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Instructure.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of INST stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 102.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $51 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for INST stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Instructure.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Instructure. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the INST stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for INST are equal to 12.2%.

Life of production assets of 3.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Instructure operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for INST is equal to -58.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $10 million for Instructure - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30.514 million for Instructure is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Instructure at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Instructure reports 4Q loss   [Feb-12-18 04:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ Instructure, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Instructure reports 3Q loss   [Oct-30-17 05:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Instructure, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [01:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Instructure Announces Sales Transition   [Oct-10-17 04:39PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Instructure, Inc. : October 3, 2017   [Oct-03-17 11:19AM  Capital Cube]
▶ [$$] Instructure Stock Seen Reaching $39   [05:51AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Instructure Revenue Booms on Big Sales Growth   [Aug-01-17 12:07AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Instructure reports 2Q loss   [Jul-31-17 10:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Instructure, Inc. : July 7, 2017   [Jul-07-17 03:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for July 3rd   [Jul-03-17 07:57AM  Zacks]
▶ How Risky Is Instructure Inc Stock?   [Jun-29-17 08:57PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Instructure, Inc. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 04:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Instructure reports 1Q loss   [May-01-17 05:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Instructure, Inc. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 04:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 6 Stocks Trending Up With Huge Volume   [07:30AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Instructure reports 4Q loss   [04:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Eight of the Top 20 Online Bachelor Programs Use Canvas   [Feb-02-17 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Instructure to Present at the Needham Growth Conference   [Dec-19-16 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Instructure Inc (INST) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-12-16 06:37PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of INST
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