Intrinsic value of Instructure - INST

Previous Close

$46.00

  Intrinsic Value

$10.27

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-78%

Previous close

$46.00

 
Intrinsic value

$10.27

 
Up/down potential

-78%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of INST stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  43.20
  39.38
  35.94
  32.85
  30.06
  27.56
  25.30
  23.27
  21.44
  19.80
  18.32
  16.99
  15.79
  14.71
  13.74
  12.87
  12.08
  11.37
  10.73
  10.16
  9.64
  9.18
  8.76
  8.39
  8.05
  7.74
  7.47
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
Revenue, $m
  228
  317
  431
  573
  745
  951
  1,191
  1,469
  1,784
  2,137
  2,528
  2,958
  3,425
  3,928
  4,468
  5,043
  5,652
  6,295
  6,970
  7,679
  8,419
  9,192
  9,997
  10,836
  11,708
  12,614
  13,556
  14,535
  15,552
  16,610
Variable operating expenses, $m
  214
  298
  404
  536
  697
  888
  1,112
  1,371
  1,664
  1,993
  2,356
  2,756
  3,191
  3,660
  4,163
  4,699
  5,267
  5,865
  6,495
  7,155
  7,845
  8,565
  9,315
  10,097
  10,909
  11,754
  12,632
  13,544
  14,492
  15,477
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  61
  63
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  71
  73
  75
  76
  78
  80
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  99
  101
  103
  106
  108
  110
  113
  115
Total operating expenses, $m
  275
  361
  468
  601
  764
  956
  1,182
  1,442
  1,737
  2,068
  2,432
  2,834
  3,271
  3,741
  4,246
  4,784
  5,354
  5,954
  6,586
  7,248
  7,940
  8,662
  9,414
  10,198
  11,012
  11,860
  12,740
  13,654
  14,605
  15,592
Operating income, $m
  -48
  -43
  -37
  -28
  -18
  -6
  9
  27
  47
  69
  96
  124
  154
  187
  222
  259
  299
  341
  385
  431
  479
  530
  583
  638
  695
  755
  817
  881
  948
  1,018
EBITDA, $m
  -41
  -35
  -26
  -15
  -2
  15
  35
  57
  83
  113
  146
  182
  221
  263
  309
  357
  409
  463
  521
  581
  644
  709
  778
  849
  923
  1,001
  1,081
  1,164
  1,251
  1,342
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  6
  11
  17
  24
  32
  42
  54
  67
  81
  98
  115
  135
  156
  178
  202
  227
  254
  282
  311
  342
  374
  407
  442
  478
  516
  555
  595
  637
Earnings before tax, $m
  -48
  -45
  -43
  -39
  -35
  -29
  -23
  -16
  -7
  2
  15
  26
  39
  52
  66
  81
  97
  113
  131
  149
  168
  188
  209
  231
  253
  277
  301
  326
  353
  380
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  4
  7
  10
  14
  18
  22
  26
  31
  35
  40
  45
  51
  56
  62
  68
  75
  81
  88
  95
  103
Net income, $m
  -48
  -45
  -43
  -39
  -35
  -29
  -23
  -16
  -7
  2
  11
  19
  28
  38
  48
  59
  71
  83
  96
  109
  123
  138
  153
  168
  185
  202
  220
  238
  258
  278

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  194
  271
  368
  489
  635
  811
  1,016
  1,252
  1,521
  1,822
  2,155
  2,521
  2,920
  3,349
  3,809
  4,299
  4,818
  5,366
  5,942
  6,546
  7,177
  7,836
  8,523
  9,238
  9,981
  10,754
  11,557
  12,391
  13,259
  14,160
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  194
  271
  368
  489
  635
  811
  1,016
  1,252
  1,521
  1,822
  2,155
  2,521
  2,920
  3,349
  3,809
  4,299
  4,818
  5,366
  5,942
  6,546
  7,177
  7,836
  8,523
  9,238
  9,981
  10,754
  11,557
  12,391
  13,259
  14,160
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.175
  1.170
  1.171
  1.172
  1.173
  1.173
  1.172
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
Average production assets, $m
  44
  62
  84
  112
  145
  185
  232
  286
  348
  417
  493
  577
  668
  766
  871
  983
  1,102
  1,227
  1,359
  1,497
  1,642
  1,792
  1,949
  2,113
  2,283
  2,460
  2,643
  2,834
  3,033
  3,239
Working capital, $m
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -32
  -38
  -46
  -53
  -62
  -71
  -80
  -91
  -102
  -113
  -125
  -138
  -152
  -165
  -180
  -195
  -211
  -227
  -244
  -262
  -280
  -299
Total debt, $m
  43
  112
  200
  308
  441
  598
  783
  995
  1,237
  1,508
  1,808
  2,138
  2,496
  2,883
  3,297
  3,738
  4,205
  4,698
  5,217
  5,760
  6,328
  6,921
  7,539
  8,182
  8,851
  9,547
  10,270
  11,021
  11,801
  12,613
Total liabilities, $m
  175
  243
  331
  440
  572
  730
  914
  1,127
  1,368
  1,639
  1,940
  2,269
  2,628
  3,014
  3,428
  3,869
  4,337
  4,830
  5,348
  5,892
  6,460
  7,053
  7,671
  8,314
  8,983
  9,678
  10,401
  11,152
  11,933
  12,744
Total equity, $m
  19
  27
  37
  49
  64
  81
  102
  125
  152
  182
  216
  252
  292
  335
  381
  430
  482
  537
  594
  655
  718
  784
  852
  924
  998
  1,075
  1,156
  1,239
  1,326
  1,416
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  194
  270
  368
  489
  636
  811
  1,016
  1,252
  1,520
  1,821
  2,156
  2,521
  2,920
  3,349
  3,809
  4,299
  4,819
  5,367
  5,942
  6,547
  7,178
  7,837
  8,523
  9,238
  9,981
  10,753
  11,557
  12,391
  13,259
  14,160
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.230
  4.140
  5.430
  6.310
  6.930
  7.380
  7.710
  7.950
  8.140
  8.280
  8.390
  8.480
  8.550
  8.610
  8.660
  8.690
  8.730
  8.760
  8.780
  8.800
  8.820
  8.830
  8.850
  8.860
  8.870
  8.880
  8.890
  8.890
  8.900
  8.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -48
  -45
  -43
  -39
  -35
  -29
  -23
  -16
  -7
  2
  11
  19
  28
  38
  48
  59
  71
  83
  96
  109
  123
  138
  153
  168
  185
  202
  220
  238
  258
  278
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  8
  11
  13
  17
  21
  25
  31
  37
  44
  49
  58
  67
  77
  87
  98
  110
  123
  136
  150
  164
  179
  195
  211
  228
  246
  264
  283
  303
  324
Funds from operations, $m
  -41
  -37
  -32
  -26
  -18
  -9
  2
  15
  30
  45
  60
  77
  95
  114
  135
  157
  181
  206
  232
  259
  287
  317
  348
  380
  413
  448
  484
  522
  561
  602
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
Cash from operations, $m
  -40
  -36
  -30
  -23
  -15
  -5
  7
  20
  35
  52
  67
  85
  103
  123
  145
  168
  192
  217
  244
  271
  300
  331
  362
  395
  429
  464
  501
  539
  579
  621
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -29
  -35
  -42
  -49
  -58
  -67
  -77
  -87
  -98
  -110
  -123
  -136
  -150
  -164
  -179
  -195
  -211
  -228
  -246
  -264
  -283
  -303
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -17
  -22
  -28
  -34
  -40
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -69
  -76
  -84
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -198
  -206
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -16
  -21
  -28
  -36
  -45
  -55
  -66
  -77
  -90
  -104
  -118
  -133
  -149
  -165
  -182
  -199
  -217
  -235
  -255
  -274
  -294
  -315
  -336
  -358
  -381
  -405
  -430
  -455
  -481
  -509
Free cash flow, $m
  -57
  -57
  -59
  -59
  -60
  -60
  -59
  -57
  -55
  -52
  -51
  -49
  -45
  -42
  -37
  -31
  -25
  -18
  -11
  -3
  6
  16
  26
  36
  48
  59
  71
  84
  97
  111
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  43
  69
  88
  109
  132
  158
  185
  213
  242
  271
  300
  330
  358
  387
  414
  441
  467
  493
  518
  543
  568
  593
  618
  643
  669
  695
  723
  751
  781
  811
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  63
  53
  52
  51
  49
  47
  44
  39
  34
  28
  23
  18
  12
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  106
  122
  140
  160
  181
  205
  229
  252
  276
  299
  323
  348
  370
  392
  414
  441
  467
  493
  518
  543
  568
  593
  618
  643
  669
  695
  723
  751
  781
  811
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  50
  64
  81
  101
  122
  145
  169
  195
  221
  248
  272
  298
  325
  350
  377
  410
  442
  475
  508
  541
  575
  609
  644
  680
  717
  755
  794
  835
  878
  922
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -63
  -53
  -52
  -51
  -49
  -47
  -44
  -39
  -34
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  16
  23
  31
  43
  57
  74
  94
  118
  145
  177
  212
  250
  293
  339
  389
  442
  499
  560
  623
  690
  760
  833
  910
  990
  1,073
  1,159
  1,249
  1,342
  1,439
  1,540
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -13
  11
  29
  49
  72
  98
  126
  156
  187
  217
  239
  262
  285
  307
  331
  361
  390
  420
  450
  480
  511
  543
  575
  608
  642
  677
  714
  752
  791
  832
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -13
  10
  25
  41
  56
  71
  85
  97
  107
  114
  113
  112
  108
  103
  97
  92
  85
  77
  69
  61
  53
  45
  38
  31
  25
  20
  15
  12
  9
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  38.7
  30.4
  25.5
  22.3
  20.3
  18.9
  17.9
  17.3
  16.8
  16.5
  16.3
  16.2
  16.1
  16.1
  16.1
  16.1
  16.1
  16.1
  16.1
  16.1
  16.1
  16.1
  16.1
  16.1
  16.1
  16.1
  16.1
  16.1
  16.1
  16.1

Instructure, Inc. provides cloud-based learning management platform for academic institutions and companies across the world. The Company operates in the cloud-based learning management systems segment. The Company builds its learning management applications, Canvas for the education market and Bridge for the corporate market, to enable its customers to develop, deliver and manage face-to-face and online learning experiences. The Company develops software that students, teachers and employees use to help achieve their education and learning goals. Its applications develop academic and corporate learning by providing a platform for instructors and learners, enabling frequent and open interactions, streamlining workflow, and allowing the creation and sharing of content. The Company's platform runs on a cloud-based architecture that enables users to teach, learn and engage across a range of application environments, operating systems, devices and locations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Instructure (INST)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -24.3
Price to Sales 11.8
Price to Book 131.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -59.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -43.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 52.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 51.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -46.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -59.6%
Return On Total Capital -192.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -268%
Return On Equity -192.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -268%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 70.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.8%
EBITDA Margin -44.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -67.1%
Operating Margin -47.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -69.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -47.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -71.2%
Net Profit Margin -48.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -71.5%
Effective Tax Rate -1.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

INST stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the INST stock intrinsic value calculation we used $159 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Instructure. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Instructure. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our INST stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 43.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for INST is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Instructure, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Instructure.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of INST stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $60 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for INST stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Instructure.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Instructure. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the INST stock is equal to 9.9%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for INST are equal to 19.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Instructure operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for INST is equal to -1.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4 million for Instructure - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29 million for Instructure is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Instructure at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Canvas by Instructure Showcases Success at Cox College   [Jun-19-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Josh Bersin to Deliver Keynote at InstructureCon 2018   [Jun-12-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Instructure: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-30-18 05:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Instructure, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [01:15PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Bridge by Instructure Wins EdTech Digest Cool Tool Award   [Apr-24-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Canvas by Instructure Now Available in Canada   [Apr-03-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Instructure reports 4Q loss   [Feb-12-18 04:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ Instructure, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Instructure reports 3Q loss   [Oct-30-17 05:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Instructure, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [01:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Instructure Announces Sales Transition   [Oct-10-17 04:39PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Instructure, Inc. : October 3, 2017   [Oct-03-17 11:19AM  Capital Cube]
▶ [$$] Instructure Stock Seen Reaching $39   [05:51AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Instructure Revenue Booms on Big Sales Growth   [Aug-01-17 12:07AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Instructure reports 2Q loss   [Jul-31-17 10:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Instructure, Inc. : July 7, 2017   [Jul-07-17 03:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for July 3rd   [Jul-03-17 07:57AM  Zacks]
▶ How Risky Is Instructure Inc Stock?   [Jun-29-17 08:57PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Instructure, Inc. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 04:46PM  Capital Cube]
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