Intrinsic value of Intuit Inc. - INTU

Previous Close

$257.48

  Intrinsic Value

$107.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-58%

Previous close

$257.48

 
Intrinsic value

$107.30

 
Up/down potential

-58%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of INTU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 66.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.20
  11.48
  10.83
  10.25
  9.72
  9.25
  8.83
  8.44
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
Revenue, $m
  6,692
  7,460
  8,268
  9,115
  10,002
  10,927
  11,891
  12,895
  13,940
  15,026
  16,154
  17,327
  18,546
  19,812
  21,129
  22,499
  23,924
  25,407
  26,952
  28,562
  30,240
  31,991
  33,817
  35,723
  37,715
  39,796
  41,970
  44,245
  46,624
  49,113
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,882
  5,433
  6,012
  6,620
  7,256
  7,920
  8,612
  9,332
  10,081
  10,860
  11,589
  12,430
  13,304
  14,213
  15,158
  16,140
  17,163
  18,227
  19,335
  20,490
  21,694
  22,950
  24,260
  25,627
  27,056
  28,549
  30,109
  31,740
  33,447
  35,233
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,882
  5,433
  6,012
  6,620
  7,256
  7,920
  8,612
  9,332
  10,081
  10,860
  11,589
  12,430
  13,304
  14,213
  15,158
  16,140
  17,163
  18,227
  19,335
  20,490
  21,694
  22,950
  24,260
  25,627
  27,056
  28,549
  30,109
  31,740
  33,447
  35,233
Operating income, $m
  1,810
  2,027
  2,255
  2,495
  2,745
  3,007
  3,279
  3,563
  3,858
  4,165
  4,565
  4,897
  5,241
  5,599
  5,971
  6,359
  6,761
  7,181
  7,617
  8,072
  8,546
  9,041
  9,557
  10,096
  10,659
  11,247
  11,861
  12,504
  13,177
  13,880
EBITDA, $m
  2,088
  2,328
  2,580
  2,845
  3,121
  3,410
  3,711
  4,025
  4,350
  4,689
  5,042
  5,408
  5,788
  6,183
  6,594
  7,022
  7,466
  7,929
  8,412
  8,914
  9,438
  9,984
  10,554
  11,149
  11,770
  12,420
  13,098
  13,808
  14,551
  15,328
Interest expense (income), $m
  42
  24
  39
  55
  71
  89
  108
  127
  147
  168
  189
  212
  235
  260
  285
  311
  339
  367
  397
  428
  460
  493
  528
  564
  602
  642
  683
  727
  772
  819
  868
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,786
  1,988
  2,201
  2,423
  2,656
  2,899
  3,153
  3,416
  3,691
  3,976
  4,354
  4,661
  4,982
  5,314
  5,660
  6,020
  6,394
  6,784
  7,190
  7,612
  8,053
  8,513
  8,993
  9,494
  10,017
  10,564
  11,135
  11,732
  12,358
  13,012
Tax expense, $m
  482
  537
  594
  654
  717
  783
  851
  922
  997
  1,074
  1,175
  1,259
  1,345
  1,435
  1,528
  1,625
  1,726
  1,832
  1,941
  2,055
  2,174
  2,299
  2,428
  2,563
  2,705
  2,852
  3,006
  3,168
  3,337
  3,513
Net income, $m
  1,304
  1,451
  1,607
  1,769
  1,939
  2,117
  2,301
  2,494
  2,694
  2,902
  3,178
  3,403
  3,637
  3,879
  4,132
  4,394
  4,668
  4,952
  5,248
  5,557
  5,879
  6,214
  6,565
  6,930
  7,312
  7,711
  8,129
  8,565
  9,021
  9,499

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,734
  6,392
  7,085
  7,811
  8,570
  9,363
  10,190
  11,050
  11,945
  12,875
  13,842
  14,847
  15,892
  16,977
  18,106
  19,279
  20,500
  21,772
  23,095
  24,475
  25,913
  27,413
  28,978
  30,611
  32,318
  34,101
  35,964
  37,913
  39,952
  42,085
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,734
  6,392
  7,085
  7,811
  8,570
  9,363
  10,190
  11,050
  11,945
  12,875
  13,842
  14,847
  15,892
  16,977
  18,106
  19,279
  20,500
  21,772
  23,095
  24,475
  25,913
  27,413
  28,978
  30,611
  32,318
  34,101
  35,964
  37,913
  39,952
  42,085
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
Average production assets, $m
  1,874
  2,089
  2,315
  2,552
  2,800
  3,060
  3,330
  3,611
  3,903
  4,207
  4,523
  4,852
  5,193
  5,547
  5,916
  6,300
  6,699
  7,114
  7,547
  7,997
  8,467
  8,957
  9,469
  10,003
  10,560
  11,143
  11,752
  12,389
  13,055
  13,752
Working capital, $m
  -1,104
  -1,231
  -1,364
  -1,504
  -1,650
  -1,803
  -1,962
  -2,128
  -2,300
  -2,479
  -2,665
  -2,859
  -3,060
  -3,269
  -3,486
  -3,712
  -3,947
  -4,192
  -4,447
  -4,713
  -4,990
  -5,278
  -5,580
  -5,894
  -6,223
  -6,566
  -6,925
  -7,300
  -7,693
  -8,104
Total debt, $m
  718
  1,013
  1,324
  1,650
  1,991
  2,347
  2,718
  3,104
  3,506
  3,924
  4,358
  4,809
  5,278
  5,766
  6,272
  6,799
  7,348
  7,918
  8,513
  9,132
  9,778
  10,451
  11,154
  11,888
  12,654
  13,454
  14,291
  15,166
  16,081
  17,039
Total liabilities, $m
  2,575
  2,870
  3,181
  3,507
  3,848
  4,204
  4,575
  4,961
  5,363
  5,781
  6,215
  6,666
  7,135
  7,623
  8,129
  8,656
  9,205
  9,775
  10,370
  10,989
  11,635
  12,308
  13,011
  13,745
  14,511
  15,311
  16,148
  17,023
  17,938
  18,896
Total equity, $m
  3,159
  3,522
  3,904
  4,304
  4,722
  5,159
  5,614
  6,089
  6,582
  7,094
  7,627
  8,181
  8,756
  9,354
  9,976
  10,623
  11,296
  11,996
  12,726
  13,486
  14,278
  15,104
  15,967
  16,867
  17,807
  18,789
  19,816
  20,890
  22,013
  23,189
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,734
  6,392
  7,085
  7,811
  8,570
  9,363
  10,189
  11,050
  11,945
  12,875
  13,842
  14,847
  15,891
  16,977
  18,105
  19,279
  20,501
  21,771
  23,096
  24,475
  25,913
  27,412
  28,978
  30,612
  32,318
  34,100
  35,964
  37,913
  39,951
  42,085
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.230
  0.290
  0.340
  0.380
  0.420
  0.450
  0.480
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
  0.730
  0.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,304
  1,451
  1,607
  1,769
  1,939
  2,117
  2,301
  2,494
  2,694
  2,902
  3,178
  3,403
  3,637
  3,879
  4,132
  4,394
  4,668
  4,952
  5,248
  5,557
  5,879
  6,214
  6,565
  6,930
  7,312
  7,711
  8,129
  8,565
  9,021
  9,499
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  278
  301
  325
  350
  376
  403
  432
  461
  492
  524
  476
  511
  547
  584
  623
  663
  705
  749
  794
  842
  891
  943
  997
  1,053
  1,112
  1,173
  1,237
  1,304
  1,374
  1,448
Funds from operations, $m
  1,582
  1,753
  1,931
  2,119
  2,315
  2,520
  2,733
  2,955
  3,186
  3,426
  3,654
  3,914
  4,183
  4,463
  4,755
  5,058
  5,373
  5,701
  6,043
  6,399
  6,770
  7,157
  7,561
  7,983
  8,424
  8,884
  9,366
  9,869
  10,395
  10,946
Change in working capital, $m
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -226
  -235
  -245
  -255
  -266
  -277
  -289
  -301
  -315
  -329
  -343
  -359
  -375
  -393
  -411
Cash from operations, $m
  1,702
  1,879
  2,065
  2,259
  2,461
  2,672
  2,892
  3,121
  3,359
  3,606
  3,840
  4,107
  4,384
  4,672
  4,972
  5,284
  5,608
  5,946
  6,298
  6,664
  7,047
  7,446
  7,863
  8,298
  8,752
  9,228
  9,724
  10,244
  10,788
  11,357
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -176
  -197
  -220
  -244
  -269
  -295
  -322
  -350
  -380
  -411
  -443
  -476
  -511
  -547
  -584
  -623
  -663
  -705
  -749
  -794
  -842
  -891
  -943
  -997
  -1,053
  -1,112
  -1,173
  -1,237
  -1,304
  -1,374
New CAPEX, $m
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -248
  -259
  -270
  -281
  -292
  -304
  -316
  -328
  -341
  -355
  -369
  -384
  -399
  -415
  -433
  -451
  -470
  -490
  -511
  -534
  -558
  -583
  -609
  -637
  -666
  -697
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -381
  -412
  -446
  -481
  -517
  -554
  -592
  -631
  -672
  -715
  -759
  -804
  -852
  -902
  -953
  -1,007
  -1,062
  -1,120
  -1,182
  -1,245
  -1,312
  -1,381
  -1,454
  -1,531
  -1,611
  -1,695
  -1,782
  -1,874
  -1,970
  -2,071
Free cash flow, $m
  1,321
  1,467
  1,619
  1,778
  1,944
  2,119
  2,300
  2,489
  2,686
  2,891
  3,082
  3,303
  3,532
  3,771
  4,019
  4,277
  4,546
  4,825
  5,116
  5,419
  5,735
  6,065
  6,409
  6,767
  7,142
  7,533
  7,942
  8,370
  8,818
  9,286
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  280
  296
  311
  326
  341
  356
  371
  386
  402
  418
  434
  451
  469
  487
  507
  527
  548
  571
  594
  619
  646
  673
  703
  734
  766
  801
  837
  875
  915
  958
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  280
  296
  311
  326
  341
  356
  371
  386
  402
  418
  434
  451
  469
  487
  507
  527
  548
  571
  594
  619
  646
  673
  703
  734
  766
  801
  837
  875
  915
  958
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,601
  1,763
  1,930
  2,104
  2,286
  2,475
  2,671
  2,876
  3,088
  3,309
  3,516
  3,754
  4,001
  4,258
  4,526
  4,804
  5,094
  5,396
  5,711
  6,039
  6,381
  6,738
  7,111
  7,501
  7,908
  8,334
  8,779
  9,245
  9,733
  10,243
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -343
  -363
  -382
  -400
  -418
  -437
  -455
  -474
  -493
  -513
  -533
  -554
  -575
  -598
  -622
  -647
  -673
  -700
  -729
  -760
  -792
  -826
  -862
  -900
  -940
  -982
  -1,027
  -1,074
  -1,123
  -1,175
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,258
  1,400
  1,548
  1,704
  1,867
  2,038
  2,216
  2,402
  2,595
  2,796
  2,983
  3,200
  3,426
  3,660
  3,904
  4,158
  4,421
  4,696
  4,981
  5,279
  5,589
  5,912
  6,249
  6,601
  6,968
  7,352
  7,752
  8,171
  8,610
  9,068
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,206
  1,281
  1,347
  1,403
  1,447
  1,479
  1,497
  1,501
  1,491
  1,466
  1,417
  1,366
  1,303
  1,229
  1,146
  1,057
  962
  865
  767
  671
  578
  491
  410
  336
  271
  214
  166
  126
  94
  68
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Intuit Inc. is a provider of business and financial management solutions for small businesses, consumers and accounting professionals. The Company operates through three segments: Small Business, Consumer Tax and ProConnect. The Small Business segment serves and advises small businesses and the accounting professionals, and includes QuickBooks financial and business management online services and desktop software, payroll solutions, and payment processing solutions. The Small Business segment also includes third-party applications that integrate with the Company's offerings. The Consumer Tax segment targets consumers and includes TurboTax products and services, which enable individuals to prepare and file their own federal and state personal income tax returns. The ProConnect segment targets professional accountants in the United States and Canada. Its ProConnect professional tax offerings include Lacerte, ProSeries, ProFile and ProConnect Tax Online.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Intuit Inc. (INTU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 67.8
Price to Sales 12.7
Price to Book 48.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 41.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 48.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -55.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 16
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 32.3%
Total Debt to Equity 36%
Interest Coverage 34
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 24.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
Return On Total Capital 48.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 33%
Return On Equity 77.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.9%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 84.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 83.7%
EBITDA Margin 31.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.8%
Operating Margin 26.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 26.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Net Profit Margin 18.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Effective Tax Rate 29%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.7%
Payout Ratio 36.4%

INTU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the INTU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5964 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Intuit Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Intuit Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our INTU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for INTU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Intuit Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Intuit Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of INTU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 73.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for INTU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Intuit Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Intuit Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the INTU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for INTU are equal to 28%.

Life of production assets of 9.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Intuit Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for INTU is equal to -16.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2816 million for Intuit Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 259.056 million for Intuit Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Intuit Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $66.7 billion.

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