Intrinsic value of Identiv - INVE

Previous Close

$4.42

  Intrinsic Value

$0.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

Previous close

$4.42

 
Intrinsic value

$0.39

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of INVE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
Revenue, $m
  64
  69
  73
  78
  83
  89
  94
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  164
  172
  182
  191
  201
  212
  223
  234
  247
  259
  273
  287
  301
  317
Variable operating expenses, $m
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  134
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  185
  195
  205
  216
  227
  239
  252
  265
  279
  293
  308
  324
  341
  358
  377
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  134
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  185
  195
  205
  216
  227
  239
  252
  265
  279
  293
  308
  324
  341
  358
  377
Operating income, $m
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
EBITDA, $m
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
Earnings before tax, $m
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  132
  140
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
  221
  233
  244
  257
  270
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  132
  140
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
  221
  233
  244
  257
  270
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.164
  1.169
  1.159
  1.164
  1.169
  1.171
  1.175
  1.176
  1.178
  1.179
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.168
  1.167
  1.174
  1.171
  1.170
  1.174
  1.172
  1.169
  1.171
  1.174
  1.170
  1.176
  1.172
  1.172
  1.176
  1.171
  1.174
Average production assets, $m
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
Working capital, $m
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
Total debt, $m
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  122
  129
Total liabilities, $m
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
Total equity, $m
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  98
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  55
  58
  62
  67
  71
  75
  81
  85
  90
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
  147
  154
  163
  171
  181
  190
  200
  210
  222
  233
  244
  257
  270
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.570
  0.600
  0.640
  0.670
  0.700
  0.720
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.830
  0.840
  0.860
  0.870
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Funds from operations, $m
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
Free cash flow, $m
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -84
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  87
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  80
  84
  89
  94
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  77.8
  60.4
  46.9
  36.4
  28.2
  21.8
  16.9
  13.1
  10.1
  7.8
  6.1
  4.7
  3.6
  2.8
  2.2
  1.7
  1.3
  1.0
  0.8
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0

Identiv, Inc. is a global security technology company. The Company operates through four segments: Physical access control systems (PACS), Identity, Credentials and All Other. PACS segment provides solutions and services that enable the issuance, management and use of secure identity credentials in diverse markets. PACS business offers Hirsch line of controllers, including the advanced MX line, Hirsch's Velocity management software and its Identiv connected physical access manager software, EDGE controller and reader package. Identity segment offers products to secure enterprise information, including login and printers through delivery of smart card reader products and identity management through its idOnDemand service. Credentials segment offers access cards, radio frequency identification (RFID) and near field communication products, including cards, labels, tags and stickers, as well as RF components. All Other segment includes products, such as Chipdrive and Digital Media readers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Identiv (INVE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.5
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 12.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -8.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 350%
Total Debt to Equity 575%
Interest Coverage -6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -25.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -34.1%
Return On Total Capital -43.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -50.6%
Return On Equity -155.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -110%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 42.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.4%
EBITDA Margin -16.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.8%
Operating Margin -19.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32%
Pre-Tax Margin -25%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -37.1%
Net Profit Margin -25%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -37.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

INVE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the INVE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $60 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Identiv. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Identiv. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our INVE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for INVE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Identiv, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Identiv.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of INVE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 119.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for INVE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 16.9% for Identiv.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Identiv. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the INVE stock is equal to 4.1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for INVE are equal to 12.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Identiv operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for INVE is equal to 8.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $24 million for Identiv - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13 million for Identiv is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Identiv at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Identiv Reports First Quarter 2018 Results   [May-10-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Identiv Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2017 Results   [Mar-08-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Identiv, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [02:15PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Identiv Launches Global Services to Drive Customer Success   [Feb-22-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Identiv Announces Amendment to Financing Agreement   [Feb-01-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Identiv, Inc. : December 25, 2017   [Dec-25-17 12:01PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Identiv Secures Investment of up to $20 Million   [Dec-21-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Identiv, Inc. : December 14, 2017   [Dec-14-17 01:34PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Identiv Reports Third Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Nov-09-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Identiv, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [02:10PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Identiv, Inc. : September 6, 2017   [Sep-05-17 09:03PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Identiv Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-10-17 04:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Identiv, Inc. : July 7, 2017   [Jul-07-17 03:03PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Identiv, Inc. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Identiv, Inc. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 03:55PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Identiv, Inc. : June 5, 2017   [Jun-05-17 02:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Identiv, Inc. : May 25, 2017   [May-25-17 12:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Identiv Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock   [May-18-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Identiv Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-10-17 04:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Identiv, Inc. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 04:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Will Identiv (INVE) Continue to Surge Higher?   [Mar-24-17 05:40AM  Zacks]
▶ Identiv Appoints Sandra Wallach as Chief Financial Officer   [Feb-16-17 06:52PM  GlobeNewswire]
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