Intrinsic value of Ionis Pharmaceuticals - IONS

Previous Close

$51.73

  Intrinsic Value

$4.73

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

Previous close

$51.73

 
Intrinsic value

$4.73

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of IONS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  533
  559
  586
  615
  645
  677
  711
  746
  783
  822
  863
  905
  951
  998
  1,047
  1,100
  1,154
  1,212
  1,272
  1,336
  1,402
  1,472
  1,546
  1,623
  1,704
  1,789
  1,878
  1,972
  2,071
  2,174
Variable operating expenses, $m
  298
  312
  327
  343
  360
  378
  396
  416
  436
  458
  478
  502
  527
  553
  581
  610
  640
  672
  706
  741
  778
  817
  857
  900
  945
  992
  1,042
  1,094
  1,149
  1,206
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  207
  212
  217
  221
  226
  231
  236
  242
  247
  252
  258
  264
  269
  275
  281
  288
  294
  300
  307
  314
  321
  328
  335
  342
  350
  357
  365
  373
  382
  390
Total operating expenses, $m
  505
  524
  544
  564
  586
  609
  632
  658
  683
  710
  736
  766
  796
  828
  862
  898
  934
  972
  1,013
  1,055
  1,099
  1,145
  1,192
  1,242
  1,295
  1,349
  1,407
  1,467
  1,531
  1,596
Operating income, $m
  27
  35
  42
  50
  59
  68
  78
  88
  100
  111
  126
  140
  154
  169
  185
  202
  220
  239
  260
  281
  304
  328
  354
  381
  409
  439
  471
  505
  541
  578
EBITDA, $m
  36
  44
  51
  60
  69
  78
  89
  100
  111
  124
  137
  151
  165
  181
  198
  215
  234
  254
  275
  297
  321
  346
  372
  400
  430
  461
  494
  529
  566
  605
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  46
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  103
  110
  117
Earnings before tax, $m
  -18
  29
  34
  40
  47
  54
  62
  70
  78
  87
  100
  110
  121
  133
  146
  159
  173
  189
  205
  222
  240
  259
  280
  302
  325
  349
  375
  402
  431
  462
Tax expense, $m
  0
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  76
  81
  88
  94
  101
  109
  116
  125
Net income, $m
  -18
  21
  25
  30
  34
  39
  45
  51
  57
  64
  73
  80
  88
  97
  106
  116
  127
  138
  150
  162
  175
  189
  204
  220
  237
  255
  274
  294
  315
  337

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  568
  596
  626
  656
  689
  723
  759
  796
  836
  877
  921
  966
  1,014
  1,065
  1,118
  1,174
  1,232
  1,293
  1,358
  1,426
  1,497
  1,571
  1,650
  1,732
  1,819
  1,909
  2,005
  2,105
  2,210
  2,320
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  568
  596
  626
  656
  689
  723
  759
  796
  836
  877
  921
  966
  1,014
  1,065
  1,118
  1,174
  1,232
  1,293
  1,358
  1,426
  1,497
  1,571
  1,650
  1,732
  1,819
  1,909
  2,005
  2,105
  2,210
  2,320
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.938
  0.938
  0.936
  0.938
  0.936
  0.936
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.938
  0.937
  0.936
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
  0.937
Average production assets, $m
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
  200
  210
  221
  231
  243
  255
  268
  281
  295
  310
  325
  342
  359
  377
  395
  415
  436
  458
  480
  504
Working capital, $m
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -265
  -278
  -292
  -307
  -322
  -338
  -355
  -373
  -391
  -411
Total debt, $m
  79
  104
  130
  158
  187
  218
  250
  284
  319
  357
  396
  437
  480
  526
  573
  624
  676
  731
  789
  850
  914
  982
  1,052
  1,126
  1,204
  1,286
  1,372
  1,462
  1,556
  1,656
Total liabilities, $m
  512
  537
  563
  591
  620
  651
  683
  717
  752
  789
  829
  870
  913
  958
  1,006
  1,056
  1,109
  1,164
  1,222
  1,283
  1,347
  1,414
  1,485
  1,559
  1,637
  1,718
  1,804
  1,894
  1,989
  2,088
Total equity, $m
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
  200
  210
  221
  232
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  569
  597
  626
  657
  689
  723
  759
  797
  836
  877
  921
  967
  1,014
  1,064
  1,118
  1,173
  1,232
  1,293
  1,358
  1,426
  1,497
  1,571
  1,650
  1,732
  1,819
  1,909
  2,004
  2,104
  2,210
  2,320
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.390
  1.740
  2.080
  2.410
  2.720
  3.010
  3.300
  3.570
  3.820
  4.070
  4.300
  4.520
  4.730
  4.940
  5.130
  5.310
  5.490
  5.650
  5.810
  5.960
  6.110
  6.250
  6.380
  6.500
  6.620
  6.730
  6.840
  6.940
  7.040
  7.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -18
  21
  25
  30
  34
  39
  45
  51
  57
  64
  73
  80
  88
  97
  106
  116
  127
  138
  150
  162
  175
  189
  204
  220
  237
  255
  274
  294
  315
  337
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Funds from operations, $m
  -9
  30
  34
  39
  44
  50
  56
  62
  69
  76
  83
  91
  100
  109
  119
  129
  141
  152
  165
  178
  192
  207
  223
  240
  258
  276
  296
  317
  340
  363
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Cash from operations, $m
  -5
  35
  40
  45
  50
  56
  62
  69
  76
  83
  91
  99
  108
  118
  128
  139
  151
  163
  176
  190
  205
  220
  237
  254
  273
  292
  313
  335
  358
  383
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
Free cash flow, $m
  -16
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  46
  52
  58
  65
  71
  79
  87
  96
  105
  115
  125
  136
  148
  160
  173
  187
  202
  218
  234
  252
  271
  291
  312
  334
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -529
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  573
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  44
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  28
  47
  53
  59
  65
  71
  78
  86
  94
  102
  111
  120
  130
  141
  153
  165
  178
  191
  206
  221
  237
  254
  273
  292
  312
  334
  357
  381
  406
  433
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -573
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  779
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  234
  45
  50
  56
  62
  68
  75
  82
  90
  98
  106
  116
  125
  136
  147
  159
  172
  185
  199
  214
  230
  247
  265
  284
  304
  325
  347
  371
  396
  422
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  224
  41
  43
  46
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  51
  50
  49
  48
  46
  43
  40
  37
  34
  31
  27
  24
  20
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is engaged in discovering and developing ribonucleic acid (RNA)-targeted therapeutics. The Company, using its drug discovery platform, has developed a pipeline of drugs for patients with unmet medical needs. The Company's segments include Ionis Core and Akcea Therapeutics. In the Ionis Core segment, the Company is engaged in exploiting a drug discovery platform to generate a pipeline of drugs for the Company and its partners. The Akcea Therapeutics segment includes the operations of the Company's subsidiary, Akcea Therapeutics, Inc. (Akcea Therapeutics). Akcea Therapeutics is focused on developing and commercializing volanesorsen and other clinical-stage drugs for serious cardiometabolic diseases caused by lipid disorders. The Company is developing volanesorsen to treat two severe and rare, genetically defined diseases, familial chylomicronemia (FCS) and familial partial lipodystrophy (FPL). The Company offers SPINRAZA, a Generation 2.0+ antisense drug.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -72.3
Price to Sales 18.1
Price to Book 62.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -56.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -52.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 22.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 28.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 668
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 588%
Total Debt to Equity 589%
Interest Coverage -11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -7%
Return On Total Capital -12.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.4%
Return On Equity -57.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.1%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
EBITDA Margin -19.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.9%
Operating Margin -14.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -24.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -26.8%
Net Profit Margin -25.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.8%
Effective Tax Rate -3.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

IONS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IONS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $507.666 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ionis Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Ionis Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IONS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IONS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ionis Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ionis Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IONS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 55.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $203 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IONS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.5% for Ionis Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ionis Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IONS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IONS are equal to 23.2%.

Life of production assets of 19.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ionis Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IONS is equal to -18.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $281.013 million for Ionis Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 125.52 million for Ionis Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ionis Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 5 Pharma Stocks to Stay Away From   [Nov-12-18 03:16PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Ionis Pharmaceuticals to Host Investor Day   [Nov-09-18 07:07AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Ionis Pharmaceuticals: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:27AM  Associated Press]
▶ Here's Why Ionis Pharmaceuticals Rose 12.9% in September   [Oct-11-18 07:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] Ionis, Roche Reach New Collaboration Agreement   [Oct-10-18 10:12AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Akcea Announces Changes to Board of Directors   [Oct-08-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Cambridge's Akcea rebounds with FDA approval of first drug   [Oct-05-18 07:11PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Ionis Announces the Appointment of Two New Board Members   [Sep-24-18 04:06PM  PR Newswire]
▶ After-hours buzz: AMD, AKCA, IONS & more   [Aug-27-18 05:47PM  CNBC]
▶ FDA rejects rare disease drug developed by Cambridge's Akcea   [05:30PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [05:01PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Heres Why Alnylams Shares Are Tumbling   [Aug-17-18 10:02PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Biogen's Stock Ripped Higher in July   [Aug-11-18 02:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ionis Pharmaceuticals: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [10:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ Avoid Treating Biogen Like a Speculative Drug Stock   [Aug-03-18 02:46PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Is Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. a Buy?   [08:46AM  Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] Dynacure Pumps War Chest to Beat Rare Muscle Diseases   [Jul-06-18 04:00AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Why This Biotech Company 'Dominates' Its Rival In Drug Study   [Jul-05-18 04:27PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Why Biogen, Ionis Could Be In Trouble As Others Move Into SMA Drugs   [Jun-20-18 03:35PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Biogen Buys $625 Million in Ionis Stock   [Jun-11-18 01:29PM  Barrons.com]
▶ 3 Top Biotech Stocks to Buy in June   [Jun-04-18 11:36AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Better Buy: Biogen Inc. vs. Celgene   [Jun-03-18 07:18AM  Motley Fool]

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