Intrinsic value of Innospec - IOSP

Previous Close

$73.71

  Intrinsic Value

$71.03

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-4%

Previous close

$73.71

 
Intrinsic value

$71.03

 
Up/down potential

-4%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of IOSP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.70
  9.23
  8.81
  8.43
  8.08
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.33
  6.19
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.71
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
Revenue, $m
  1,434
  1,566
  1,704
  1,847
  1,997
  2,152
  2,313
  2,481
  2,655
  2,836
  3,025
  3,220
  3,424
  3,636
  3,857
  4,087
  4,327
  4,578
  4,839
  5,112
  5,396
  5,694
  6,005
  6,330
  6,670
  7,026
  7,399
  7,789
  8,198
  8,626
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,271
  1,383
  1,500
  1,622
  1,749
  1,881
  2,018
  2,161
  2,309
  2,463
  2,570
  2,737
  2,910
  3,090
  3,278
  3,474
  3,677
  3,890
  4,112
  4,344
  4,586
  4,839
  5,103
  5,379
  5,669
  5,971
  6,288
  6,619
  6,967
  7,330
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,271
  1,383
  1,500
  1,622
  1,749
  1,881
  2,018
  2,161
  2,309
  2,463
  2,570
  2,737
  2,910
  3,090
  3,278
  3,474
  3,677
  3,890
  4,112
  4,344
  4,586
  4,839
  5,103
  5,379
  5,669
  5,971
  6,288
  6,619
  6,967
  7,330
Operating income, $m
  163
  183
  203
  225
  247
  271
  295
  320
  346
  373
  454
  484
  514
  546
  579
  614
  650
  687
  727
  768
  810
  855
  902
  951
  1,002
  1,055
  1,111
  1,170
  1,231
  1,295
EBITDA, $m
  250
  273
  297
  322
  348
  375
  403
  432
  463
  494
  527
  561
  597
  634
  672
  712
  754
  798
  843
  891
  940
  992
  1,047
  1,103
  1,163
  1,225
  1,290
  1,358
  1,429
  1,503
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  12
  15
  19
  22
  26
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
  188
Earnings before tax, $m
  151
  167
  185
  203
  221
  241
  261
  282
  304
  327
  403
  428
  453
  480
  508
  537
  567
  598
  631
  666
  701
  739
  778
  819
  862
  907
  954
  1,003
  1,054
  1,108
Tax expense, $m
  41
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  76
  82
  88
  109
  116
  122
  130
  137
  145
  153
  162
  170
  180
  189
  200
  210
  221
  233
  245
  257
  271
  285
  299
Net income, $m
  110
  122
  135
  148
  162
  176
  191
  206
  222
  239
  294
  312
  331
  350
  371
  392
  414
  437
  461
  486
  512
  539
  568
  598
  629
  662
  696
  732
  769
  809

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,546
  1,689
  1,838
  1,993
  2,154
  2,321
  2,495
  2,676
  2,864
  3,060
  3,263
  3,474
  3,694
  3,923
  4,161
  4,409
  4,668
  4,938
  5,220
  5,514
  5,821
  6,142
  6,478
  6,829
  7,196
  7,580
  7,982
  8,403
  8,843
  9,305
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,546
  1,689
  1,838
  1,993
  2,154
  2,321
  2,495
  2,676
  2,864
  3,060
  3,263
  3,474
  3,694
  3,923
  4,161
  4,409
  4,668
  4,938
  5,220
  5,514
  5,821
  6,142
  6,478
  6,829
  7,196
  7,580
  7,982
  8,403
  8,843
  9,305
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.928
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
Average production assets, $m
  480
  525
  571
  619
  669
  721
  775
  831
  889
  950
  1,013
  1,079
  1,147
  1,218
  1,292
  1,369
  1,450
  1,534
  1,621
  1,712
  1,808
  1,907
  2,012
  2,121
  2,235
  2,354
  2,479
  2,609
  2,746
  2,890
Working capital, $m
  251
  274
  298
  323
  349
  377
  405
  434
  465
  496
  529
  564
  599
  636
  675
  715
  757
  801
  847
  895
  944
  996
  1,051
  1,108
  1,167
  1,230
  1,295
  1,363
  1,435
  1,510
Total debt, $m
  284
  346
  411
  479
  549
  622
  699
  778
  860
  945
  1,034
  1,126
  1,222
  1,322
  1,426
  1,535
  1,648
  1,766
  1,889
  2,018
  2,152
  2,292
  2,439
  2,592
  2,753
  2,920
  3,096
  3,280
  3,473
  3,674
Total liabilities, $m
  676
  738
  803
  871
  941
  1,014
  1,091
  1,170
  1,252
  1,337
  1,426
  1,518
  1,614
  1,714
  1,818
  1,927
  2,040
  2,158
  2,281
  2,410
  2,544
  2,684
  2,831
  2,984
  3,145
  3,312
  3,488
  3,672
  3,865
  4,066
Total equity, $m
  871
  951
  1,035
  1,122
  1,213
  1,307
  1,405
  1,507
  1,613
  1,723
  1,837
  1,956
  2,080
  2,208
  2,343
  2,482
  2,628
  2,780
  2,939
  3,104
  3,277
  3,458
  3,647
  3,845
  4,051
  4,267
  4,494
  4,731
  4,979
  5,239
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,547
  1,689
  1,838
  1,993
  2,154
  2,321
  2,496
  2,677
  2,865
  3,060
  3,263
  3,474
  3,694
  3,922
  4,161
  4,409
  4,668
  4,938
  5,220
  5,514
  5,821
  6,142
  6,478
  6,829
  7,196
  7,579
  7,982
  8,403
  8,844
  9,305
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.330
  0.360
  0.400
  0.430
  0.450
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  110
  122
  135
  148
  162
  176
  191
  206
  222
  239
  294
  312
  331
  350
  371
  392
  414
  437
  461
  486
  512
  539
  568
  598
  629
  662
  696
  732
  769
  809
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  117
  123
  130
  137
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  188
  198
  208
Funds from operations, $m
  197
  212
  228
  245
  262
  280
  299
  318
  339
  360
  367
  390
  414
  438
  464
  490
  518
  547
  578
  609
  642
  677
  713
  750
  790
  831
  874
  920
  967
  1,017
Change in working capital, $m
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
Cash from operations, $m
  175
  189
  204
  220
  236
  253
  271
  289
  308
  328
  334
  356
  378
  401
  425
  450
  476
  503
  532
  561
  592
  625
  658
  693
  730
  769
  809
  851
  896
  942
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -198
New CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -73
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -208
  -218
  -230
  -241
  -254
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -309
  -325
  -341
Free cash flow, $m
  101
  110
  120
  131
  142
  153
  165
  177
  190
  203
  203
  217
  232
  247
  263
  280
  297
  315
  334
  353
  374
  395
  417
  440
  464
  489
  515
  542
  571
  601
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  59
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  59
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  160
  173
  185
  198
  212
  226
  241
  256
  272
  289
  292
  309
  328
  347
  368
  389
  410
  433
  457
  482
  508
  535
  563
  593
  624
  657
  691
  726
  764
  803
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -237
  -248
  -260
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  84
  92
  102
  111
  121
  132
  143
  154
  166
  179
  177
  191
  204
  219
  233
  249
  265
  281
  298
  316
  335
  354
  375
  396
  418
  440
  464
  489
  515
  543
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  80
  85
  88
  92
  94
  96
  97
  96
  96
  94
  84
  81
  78
  73
  69
  63
  58
  52
  46
  40
  35
  29
  25
  20
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Innospec Inc. is a specialty chemicals company engaged in developing, manufacturing, blending, marketing and supplying of specialty chemicals for use as fuel additives and ingredients for personal care, home care, agrochemical, mining and other applications and oilfield chemicals. The Company operates through four business segments: Fuel Specialties, Performance Chemicals, Oilfield Services and Octane Additives. Its Fuel Specialties develops, manufactures, blends, markets and supplies various specialty chemical products that are used as additives for a range of fuels. Its Performance Chemicals provides technology-based solutions. Its Oilfield Services business supplies drilling, completion and production chemicals. Its Octane Additives business manufactures a fuel additive for use in automotive gasoline and provides services in respect of environmental remediation. Its customers include oil and gas exploration and production companies, fuel users, and oil refiners among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Innospec (IOSP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.9
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -34.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 39.9%
Total Debt to Equity 41.7%
Interest Coverage 35
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Return On Total Capital 9.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Return On Equity 12.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.5%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.4%
EBITDA Margin 16.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Operating Margin 11.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Net Profit Margin 9.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Effective Tax Rate 21.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Payout Ratio 19.8%

IOSP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IOSP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1306.8 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Innospec. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Innospec. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IOSP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IOSP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Innospec, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Innospec.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IOSP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IOSP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Innospec.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Innospec. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IOSP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IOSP are equal to 33.5%.

Life of production assets of 13.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Innospec operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IOSP is equal to 17.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $793.9 million for Innospec - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.416 million for Innospec is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Innospec at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Innospec: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-06-18 07:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Innospec Incs (NASDAQ:IOSP) CEO Salary Matters To You   [Nov-01-18 11:47AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Innospec Publishes 2017 Responsible Business Report   [Oct-22-18 04:45PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Innospec Announces New Technology to Support IMO-2020   [Oct-02-18 04:45PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 15 Colorado companies reaping the benefits of Wall Street's latest bull run   [Aug-23-18 09:00AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Innospec Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [08:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Innospec: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-07-18 04:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Innospec (IOSP) Stock Might be a Great Pick   [Jun-06-18 08:40AM  Zacks]
▶ Innospec: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ Innospec Reports First Quarter 2018 Financial Results   [May-08-18 04:45PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for March 2nd   [Mar-02-18 06:00AM  Zacks]
▶ Innospec Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [07:45AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Innospec reports 4Q loss   [Feb-13-18 07:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Innospec posts 3Q profit   [Nov-07-17 06:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Innospec, Inc. : November 2, 2017   [Nov-02-17 12:16PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Innospec Publishes 2016 Responsible Business Report   [Oct-23-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Innospec, Inc. : September 22, 2017   [Sep-22-17 11:13AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Innospec ECOCLEAN® Additive Approved for TOP TIER Diesel   [Aug-30-17 01:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Innospec posts 2Q profit   [Aug-08-17 10:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Innospec, Inc. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 04:06PM  Capital Cube]

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