Intrinsic value of Infinity Property&Casualty - IPCC

Previous Close

$106.20

  Intrinsic Value

$86.92

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  Rating & Target

hold

-18%

Previous close

$106.20

 
Intrinsic value

$86.92

 
Up/down potential

-18%

 
Rating

hold

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as IPCC.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IPCC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.71
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  1,570
  1,606
  1,647
  1,693
  1,745
  1,801
  1,863
  1,929
  2,000
  2,077
  2,159
  2,247
  2,340
  2,439
  2,545
  2,656
  2,774
  2,899
  3,031
  3,170
  3,317
  3,472
  3,636
  3,808
  3,989
  4,180
  4,381
  4,592
  4,814
  5,048
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,475
  1,509
  1,548
  1,591
  1,639
  1,692
  1,749
  1,811
  1,878
  1,950
  2,019
  2,101
  2,188
  2,281
  2,380
  2,484
  2,594
  2,711
  2,834
  2,965
  3,102
  3,247
  3,400
  3,561
  3,730
  3,909
  4,096
  4,294
  4,502
  4,721
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,463
  1,475
  1,509
  1,548
  1,591
  1,639
  1,692
  1,749
  1,811
  1,878
  1,950
  2,019
  2,101
  2,188
  2,281
  2,380
  2,484
  2,594
  2,711
  2,834
  2,965
  3,102
  3,247
  3,400
  3,561
  3,730
  3,909
  4,096
  4,294
  4,502
  4,721
Operating income, $m
  76
  94
  97
  99
  102
  106
  109
  113
  118
  122
  127
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  298
  312
  328
EBITDA, $m
  111
  121
  123
  127
  130
  134
  138
  143
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  279
  293
  307
  321
  337
  353
  370
  388
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  65
  71
  77
  84
  91
  98
  106
  114
  123
  132
  142
  152
  163
  175
  187
  199
Earnings before tax, $m
  62
  80
  81
  82
  82
  83
  84
  84
  85
  86
  87
  96
  97
  98
  99
  100
  101
  103
  104
  106
  107
  109
  111
  113
  115
  117
  119
  121
  123
  126
  128
Tax expense, $m
  19
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  23
  23
  24
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
Net income, $m
  43
  59
  59
  60
  60
  61
  61
  62
  62
  63
  64
  70
  71
  71
  72
  73
  74
  75
  76
  77
  78
  80
  81
  82
  84
  85
  87
  88
  90
  92
  94

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,403
  2,453
  2,509
  2,574
  2,646
  2,726
  2,814
  2,910
  3,014
  3,126
  3,246
  3,374
  3,511
  3,657
  3,812
  3,976
  4,150
  4,335
  4,530
  4,736
  4,954
  5,183
  5,425
  5,681
  5,949
  6,233
  6,531
  6,845
  7,175
  7,523
  7,888
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,403
  2,453
  2,509
  2,574
  2,646
  2,726
  2,814
  2,910
  3,014
  3,126
  3,246
  3,374
  3,511
  3,657
  3,812
  3,976
  4,150
  4,335
  4,530
  4,736
  4,954
  5,183
  5,425
  5,681
  5,949
  6,233
  6,531
  6,845
  7,175
  7,523
  7,888
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
Average production assets, $m
  93
  94
  96
  99
  102
  105
  108
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  153
  159
  166
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  251
  263
  276
  289
  303
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  274
  309
  349
  395
  446
  503
  565
  633
  707
  786
  871
  962
  1,059
  1,163
  1,272
  1,389
  1,513
  1,643
  1,782
  1,928
  2,082
  2,245
  2,417
  2,597
  2,788
  2,989
  3,200
  3,423
  3,657
  3,903
  4,163
Total liabilities, $m
  1,703
  1,739
  1,779
  1,825
  1,876
  1,933
  1,995
  2,063
  2,137
  2,216
  2,301
  2,392
  2,489
  2,593
  2,702
  2,819
  2,943
  3,073
  3,212
  3,358
  3,512
  3,675
  3,847
  4,027
  4,218
  4,419
  4,630
  4,853
  5,087
  5,333
  5,593
Total equity, $m
  699
  714
  730
  749
  770
  793
  819
  847
  877
  910
  944
  982
  1,022
  1,064
  1,109
  1,157
  1,208
  1,261
  1,318
  1,378
  1,441
  1,508
  1,579
  1,653
  1,731
  1,814
  1,900
  1,992
  2,088
  2,189
  2,295
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,402
  2,453
  2,509
  2,574
  2,646
  2,726
  2,814
  2,910
  3,014
  3,126
  3,245
  3,374
  3,511
  3,657
  3,811
  3,976
  4,151
  4,334
  4,530
  4,736
  4,953
  5,183
  5,426
  5,680
  5,949
  6,233
  6,530
  6,845
  7,175
  7,522
  7,888
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.392
  0.430
  0.480
  0.530
  0.580
  0.630
  0.690
  0.750
  0.810
  0.860
  0.920
  0.980
  1.040
  1.090
  1.150
  1.200
  1.250
  1.300
  1.350
  1.400
  1.440
  1.490
  1.530
  1.570
  1.610
  1.650
  1.680
  1.720
  1.750
  1.780
  1.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  43
  59
  59
  60
  60
  61
  61
  62
  62
  63
  64
  70
  71
  71
  72
  73
  74
  75
  76
  77
  78
  80
  81
  82
  84
  85
  87
  88
  90
  92
  94
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  35
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
Funds from operations, $m
  129
  85
  86
  87
  88
  89
  90
  92
  93
  94
  96
  96
  98
  99
  102
  104
  106
  108
  111
  114
  116
  119
  123
  126
  129
  133
  137
  141
  145
  150
  154
Change in working capital, $m
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  105
  85
  86
  87
  88
  89
  90
  92
  93
  94
  96
  96
  98
  99
  102
  104
  106
  108
  111
  114
  116
  119
  123
  126
  129
  133
  137
  141
  145
  150
  154
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -40
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -43
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -68
  -72
Free cash flow, $m
  65
  65
  65
  65
  65
  66
  66
  66
  67
  67
  67
  66
  66
  67
  67
  68
  69
  69
  70
  71
  72
  73
  73
  74
  75
  76
  78
  79
  80
  81
  83
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  35
  40
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  211
  223
  234
  246
  259
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  3
  6
  9
  13
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -12
  35
  40
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  211
  226
  240
  255
  272
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  53
  100
  105
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  146
  152
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  192
  200
  208
  217
  226
  235
  245
  255
  266
  277
  289
  304
  320
  337
  354
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -11
  -15
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  85
  88
  92
  96
  99
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
  120
  124
  128
  132
  137
  142
  147
  152
  157
  163
  169
  175
  181
  188
  195
  202
  213
  224
  236
  248
Discount rate, %
 
  5.80
  6.09
  6.39
  6.71
  7.05
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.48
  12.06
  12.66
  13.29
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.81
  18.71
  19.64
  20.62
  21.65
  22.74
  23.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  81
  79
  76
  74
  71
  67
  63
  59
  54
  50
  44
  40
  35
  31
  27
  23
  19
  16
  13
  11
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.7
  99.5
  99.1

Infinity Property and Casualty Corporation is a holding company. The Company's segments include Personal Auto, Commercial Vehicle and Classic Collector (its segments are Personal Auto and Commercial Vehicle). The Company writes personal automobile insurance with a concentration on nonstandard automobile insurance, commercial vehicle insurance and classic collector automobile insurance. The Company offers personal and commercial automobile insurance in states, including Arizona, California, Florida and Texas. Personal Automobile is its insurance product, which provides coverage to individuals for liability to others for bodily injury and property damage and for physical damage to an insured's own vehicle from collision and various other perils. Commercial Vehicle provides coverage to businesses for liability to others for bodily injury and property damage and for physical damage to vehicles from collision. Classic Collector provides protection for classic collectible automobiles.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Infinity Property&Casualty (IPCC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.3
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -53.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 39.2%
Total Debt to Equity 39.2%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Equity 6.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 7.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Operating Margin 4.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Net Profit Margin 2.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Effective Tax Rate 30.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Payout Ratio 53.5%

IPCC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IPCC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1539 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Infinity Property&Casualty. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Infinity Property&Casualty. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IPCC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.8%, whose default value for IPCC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Infinity Property&Casualty, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Infinity Property&Casualty.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IPCC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IPCC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.1% for Infinity Property&Casualty.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Infinity Property&Casualty. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IPCC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IPCC are equal to 6%.

Life of production assets of 4.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Infinity Property&Casualty operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IPCC is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $699 million for Infinity Property&Casualty - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.082 million for Infinity Property&Casualty is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Infinity Property&Casualty at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 5 Momentum Stocks Backed by Driehaus Strategy   [Nov-28-17 08:18AM  Zacks]
▶ Infinity Property and Casualty posts 3Q profit   [Nov-06-17 04:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for October 30th   [Oct-30-17 09:23AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for October 23rd   [Oct-23-17 08:10AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for October 19th   [Oct-19-17 09:21AM  Zacks]
▶ Infinity Property and Casualty posts 2Q profit   [Aug-03-17 11:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ Birmingham public company CEO to retire in 2018   [May-05-17 01:15PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Infinity Property and Casualty posts 1Q profit   [09:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ Auto-insurance underwriting suffers worst year in past 15   [Mar-28-17 05:51PM  at MarketWatch]
▶ Infinity Property and Casualty posts 4Q profit   [08:45AM  Associated Press]
▶ 14 Dividend Stocks Rewarding Shareholders With A Raise   [Feb-27-17 11:49AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of IPCC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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