Intrinsic value of Intrepid Potash - IPI

Previous Close

$3.90

  Intrinsic Value

$0.77

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-80%

Previous close

$3.90

 
Intrinsic value

$0.77

 
Up/down potential

-80%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of IPI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.30
  12.47
  11.72
  11.05
  10.45
  9.90
  9.41
  8.97
  8.57
  8.22
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
Revenue, $m
  179
  201
  224
  249
  275
  302
  331
  361
  392
  424
  457
  492
  528
  566
  605
  645
  687
  731
  777
  824
  874
  926
  979
  1,036
  1,094
  1,155
  1,219
  1,286
  1,356
  1,429
Variable operating expenses, $m
  225
  253
  282
  314
  346
  381
  417
  454
  493
  533
  576
  619
  665
  712
  761
  812
  865
  921
  978
  1,038
  1,100
  1,165
  1,233
  1,304
  1,378
  1,455
  1,535
  1,619
  1,707
  1,799
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  225
  253
  282
  314
  346
  381
  417
  454
  493
  533
  576
  619
  665
  712
  761
  812
  865
  921
  978
  1,038
  1,100
  1,165
  1,233
  1,304
  1,378
  1,455
  1,535
  1,619
  1,707
  1,799
Operating income, $m
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -65
  -71
  -78
  -86
  -93
  -101
  -110
  -118
  -127
  -137
  -146
  -157
  -167
  -178
  -189
  -201
  -214
  -226
  -240
  -254
  -268
  -283
  -299
  -316
  -333
  -351
  -370
EBITDA, $m
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
Earnings before tax, $m
  -54
  -61
  -69
  -78
  -86
  -96
  -105
  -115
  -126
  -136
  -148
  -160
  -172
  -184
  -198
  -211
  -226
  -240
  -256
  -272
  -289
  -306
  -324
  -343
  -363
  -384
  -405
  -428
  -451
  -476
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -54
  -61
  -69
  -78
  -86
  -96
  -105
  -115
  -126
  -136
  -148
  -160
  -172
  -184
  -198
  -211
  -226
  -240
  -256
  -272
  -289
  -306
  -324
  -343
  -363
  -384
  -405
  -428
  -451
  -476

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  578
  650
  726
  806
  891
  979
  1,071
  1,167
  1,267
  1,371
  1,479
  1,592
  1,709
  1,830
  1,957
  2,088
  2,224
  2,366
  2,514
  2,668
  2,828
  2,995
  3,170
  3,351
  3,541
  3,739
  3,946
  4,163
  4,389
  4,626
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  578
  650
  726
  806
  891
  979
  1,071
  1,167
  1,267
  1,371
  1,479
  1,592
  1,709
  1,830
  1,957
  2,088
  2,224
  2,366
  2,514
  2,668
  2,828
  2,995
  3,170
  3,351
  3,541
  3,739
  3,946
  4,163
  4,389
  4,626
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.310
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.308
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
  0.309
Average production assets, $m
  426
  479
  535
  594
  656
  721
  789
  859
  933
  1,010
  1,089
  1,172
  1,258
  1,348
  1,441
  1,537
  1,638
  1,742
  1,851
  1,965
  2,083
  2,206
  2,334
  2,468
  2,608
  2,753
  2,906
  3,065
  3,232
  3,406
Working capital, $m
  89
  100
  112
  125
  138
  151
  165
  180
  196
  212
  229
  246
  264
  283
  302
  323
  344
  366
  388
  412
  437
  463
  490
  518
  547
  578
  610
  643
  678
  715
Total debt, $m
  78
  93
  110
  127
  145
  163
  183
  203
  225
  247
  270
  294
  319
  345
  372
  400
  429
  459
  490
  523
  557
  593
  630
  669
  709
  751
  795
  842
  890
  940
Total liabilities, $m
  123
  138
  155
  172
  190
  208
  228
  249
  270
  292
  315
  339
  364
  390
  417
  445
  474
  504
  535
  568
  602
  638
  675
  714
  754
  796
  841
  887
  935
  985
Total equity, $m
  455
  512
  571
  635
  701
  770
  843
  918
  997
  1,079
  1,164
  1,253
  1,345
  1,440
  1,540
  1,643
  1,751
  1,862
  1,979
  2,100
  2,226
  2,357
  2,495
  2,638
  2,787
  2,943
  3,106
  3,276
  3,454
  3,640
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  578
  650
  726
  807
  891
  978
  1,071
  1,167
  1,267
  1,371
  1,479
  1,592
  1,709
  1,830
  1,957
  2,088
  2,225
  2,366
  2,514
  2,668
  2,828
  2,995
  3,170
  3,352
  3,541
  3,739
  3,947
  4,163
  4,389
  4,625
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -54
  -61
  -69
  -78
  -86
  -96
  -105
  -115
  -126
  -136
  -148
  -160
  -172
  -184
  -198
  -211
  -226
  -240
  -256
  -272
  -289
  -306
  -324
  -343
  -363
  -384
  -405
  -428
  -451
  -476
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  39
  44
  50
  55
  61
  67
  73
  80
  86
  93
  101
  109
  117
  125
  133
  142
  152
  161
  171
  182
  193
  204
  216
  229
  241
  255
  269
  284
  299
  315
Funds from operations, $m
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -161
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
Cash from operations, $m
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -187
  -197
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -50
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -125
  -133
  -142
  -152
  -161
  -171
  -182
  -193
  -204
  -216
  -229
  -241
  -255
  -269
  -284
  -299
New CAPEX, $m
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -174
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -84
  -92
  -100
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -154
  -163
  -173
  -184
  -195
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -257
  -270
  -284
  -300
  -316
  -332
  -350
  -369
  -387
  -407
  -428
  -451
  -473
Free cash flow, $m
  -109
  -121
  -132
  -144
  -156
  -168
  -181
  -194
  -208
  -222
  -237
  -252
  -268
  -284
  -301
  -319
  -338
  -357
  -377
  -398
  -420
  -444
  -468
  -493
  -519
  -547
  -576
  -606
  -637
  -671
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  106
  118
  129
  141
  153
  165
  178
  191
  204
  218
  233
  248
  264
  280
  297
  315
  333
  352
  372
  393
  415
  438
  461
  486
  512
  540
  568
  598
  629
  662
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  121
  133
  145
  158
  171
  184
  198
  211
  225
  240
  256
  272
  289
  306
  324
  343
  362
  382
  403
  426
  449
  474
  498
  525
  552
  582
  612
  644
  677
  712
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -106
  -118
  -129
  -141
  -153
  -165
  -178
  -191
  -204
  -218
  -233
  -248
  -264
  -280
  -297
  -315
  -333
  -352
  -372
  -393
  -415
  -438
  -461
  -486
  -512
  -540
  -568
  -598
  -629
  -662
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -94
  -105
  -116
  -126
  -138
  -149
  -161
  -174
  -187
  -200
  -214
  -228
  -243
  -258
  -275
  -291
  -309
  -327
  -346
  -366
  -386
  -408
  -430
  -454
  -479
  -504
  -531
  -560
  -589
  -620
Discount rate, %
  4.90
  5.15
  5.40
  5.67
  5.96
  6.25
  6.57
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -101
  -103
  -104
  -103
  -102
  -99
  -96
  -92
  -87
  -81
  -75
  -68
  -62
  -55
  -48
  -42
  -35
  -30
  -24
  -20
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  82.8
  68.7
  57.3
  48.0
  40.4
  34.1
  28.9
  24.5
  20.9
  17.8
  15.2
  13.0
  11.2
  9.6
  8.3
  7.1
  6.1
  5.3
  4.6
  4.0
  3.4
  3.0
  2.6
  2.2
  1.9
  1.7
  1.5
  1.3
  1.1
  1.0

Intrepid Potash, Inc. is a producer of muriate of potash (potassium chloride or potash) and langbeinite (sulfate of potash magnesia) in the United States, which it markets and sells as Trio. The Company operates in the extraction, production and sale of potassium-related products. Its products are potash and Trio. It sells potash into three markets, including the agricultural market as a fertilizer input; the industrial market as a component in drilling and fracturing fluids for oil and gas wells and an input to other industrial processes, and the animal feed market as a nutrient supplement. Trio, which it mines from langbeinite ore, is its specialty fertilizer that delivers potassium, sulfate and magnesium in a single particle and has low chloride. The Company also produces salt, magnesium chloride, metal recovery salts and brine containing salt and potassium from its mining processes. It produces potash from three solar evaporation solution mining facilities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Intrepid Potash (IPI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.4
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -16.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -8.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -26.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -60.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -40.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 36.6%
Total Debt to Equity 36.6%
Interest Coverage -7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -9.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.9%
Return On Total Capital -12.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.8%
Return On Equity -17%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -30.8%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -13.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
EBITDA Margin -7.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.2%
Operating Margin -27.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -50.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -32.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.4%
Net Profit Margin -31.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -70.7%
Effective Tax Rate 1.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

IPI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IPI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $157.607 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Intrepid Potash. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Intrepid Potash. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IPI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.9%, whose default value for IPI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Intrepid Potash, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Intrepid Potash.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IPI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 125.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IPI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.9% for Intrepid Potash.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Intrepid Potash. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IPI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IPI are equal to 238.3%.

Life of production assets of 10.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Intrepid Potash operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IPI is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $402.09 million for Intrepid Potash - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 131.107 million for Intrepid Potash is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Intrepid Potash at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Fertilizer Prices for the Week Ended October 27, 2017   [Oct-30-17 08:26AM  Market Realist]
▶ Intrepid Potash reports 3Q loss   [07:26AM  Associated Press]
▶ Fertilizer Price Update for the Week Ending October 13   [Oct-18-17 11:24AM  Market Realist]
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▶ Is It Too Late To Buy Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)?   [Sep-19-17 04:27PM  Simply Wall St.]

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