Intrinsic value of iRobot - IRBT

Previous Close

$90.61

  Intrinsic Value

$41.87

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-54%

Previous close

$90.61

 
Intrinsic value

$41.87

 
Up/down potential

-54%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of IRBT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  23.60
  21.74
  20.07
  18.56
  17.20
  15.98
  14.88
  13.90
  13.01
  12.21
  11.49
  10.84
  10.25
  9.73
  9.26
  8.83
  8.45
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.04
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.34
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
Revenue, $m
  1,093
  1,330
  1,597
  1,893
  2,219
  2,574
  2,957
  3,368
  3,806
  4,270
  4,761
  5,277
  5,818
  6,383
  6,974
  7,590
  8,231
  8,898
  9,591
  10,312
  11,061
  11,839
  12,648
  13,488
  14,363
  15,273
  16,220
  17,207
  18,234
  19,306
Variable operating expenses, $m
  994
  1,206
  1,445
  1,710
  2,001
  2,318
  2,661
  3,028
  3,420
  3,835
  4,257
  4,718
  5,202
  5,708
  6,236
  6,787
  7,360
  7,957
  8,577
  9,221
  9,890
  10,586
  11,309
  12,061
  12,843
  13,657
  14,504
  15,386
  16,305
  17,263
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  994
  1,206
  1,445
  1,710
  2,001
  2,318
  2,661
  3,028
  3,420
  3,835
  4,257
  4,718
  5,202
  5,708
  6,236
  6,787
  7,360
  7,957
  8,577
  9,221
  9,890
  10,586
  11,309
  12,061
  12,843
  13,657
  14,504
  15,386
  16,305
  17,263
Operating income, $m
  99
  124
  152
  184
  218
  256
  296
  340
  386
  435
  504
  558
  615
  675
  738
  803
  871
  941
  1,015
  1,091
  1,170
  1,253
  1,338
  1,427
  1,520
  1,616
  1,716
  1,820
  1,929
  2,043
EBITDA, $m
  135
  165
  198
  235
  275
  319
  366
  417
  471
  529
  590
  654
  721
  791
  864
  940
  1,020
  1,102
  1,188
  1,277
  1,370
  1,466
  1,567
  1,671
  1,779
  1,892
  2,009
  2,131
  2,259
  2,391
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  3
  6
  10
  14
  18
  23
  28
  34
  40
  46
  52
  59
  67
  74
  82
  91
  99
  108
  118
  127
  138
  148
  159
  170
  182
  195
  207
  221
  235
Earnings before tax, $m
  99
  121
  146
  174
  204
  238
  273
  312
  352
  396
  458
  506
  556
  609
  663
  721
  780
  842
  906
  973
  1,043
  1,115
  1,190
  1,268
  1,349
  1,434
  1,521
  1,613
  1,708
  1,808
Tax expense, $m
  27
  33
  39
  47
  55
  64
  74
  84
  95
  107
  124
  137
  150
  164
  179
  195
  211
  227
  245
  263
  282
  301
  321
  342
  364
  387
  411
  436
  461
  488
Net income, $m
  72
  89
  107
  127
  149
  173
  200
  227
  257
  289
  334
  369
  406
  444
  484
  526
  570
  615
  662
  710
  761
  814
  869
  926
  985
  1,047
  1,111
  1,178
  1,247
  1,320

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  855
  1,041
  1,250
  1,481
  1,736
  2,014
  2,314
  2,635
  2,978
  3,341
  3,725
  4,129
  4,552
  4,995
  5,457
  5,939
  6,441
  6,962
  7,505
  8,069
  8,655
  9,264
  9,896
  10,554
  11,239
  11,951
  12,692
  13,464
  14,268
  15,106
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  855
  1,041
  1,250
  1,481
  1,736
  2,014
  2,314
  2,635
  2,978
  3,341
  3,725
  4,129
  4,552
  4,995
  5,457
  5,939
  6,441
  6,962
  7,505
  8,069
  8,655
  9,264
  9,896
  10,554
  11,239
  11,951
  12,692
  13,464
  14,268
  15,106
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
  1.278
Average production assets, $m
  113
  137
  164
  195
  229
  265
  305
  347
  392
  440
  490
  543
  599
  657
  718
  782
  848
  916
  988
  1,062
  1,139
  1,219
  1,303
  1,389
  1,479
  1,573
  1,671
  1,772
  1,878
  1,989
Working capital, $m
  87
  106
  128
  151
  178
  206
  237
  269
  304
  342
  381
  422
  465
  511
  558
  607
  658
  712
  767
  825
  885
  947
  1,012
  1,079
  1,149
  1,222
  1,298
  1,377
  1,459
  1,544
Total debt, $m
  52
  112
  179
  253
  334
  423
  519
  622
  732
  848
  971
  1,100
  1,235
  1,377
  1,525
  1,679
  1,840
  2,007
  2,180
  2,361
  2,548
  2,743
  2,946
  3,156
  3,375
  3,603
  3,840
  4,087
  4,345
  4,613
Total liabilities, $m
  274
  333
  400
  474
  556
  644
  740
  843
  953
  1,069
  1,192
  1,321
  1,457
  1,598
  1,746
  1,900
  2,061
  2,228
  2,402
  2,582
  2,769
  2,964
  3,167
  3,377
  3,596
  3,824
  4,061
  4,308
  4,566
  4,834
Total equity, $m
  581
  708
  850
  1,007
  1,181
  1,369
  1,573
  1,792
  2,025
  2,272
  2,533
  2,808
  3,095
  3,397
  3,711
  4,039
  4,380
  4,734
  5,103
  5,487
  5,885
  6,299
  6,730
  7,177
  7,642
  8,126
  8,630
  9,155
  9,702
  10,272
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  855
  1,041
  1,250
  1,481
  1,737
  2,013
  2,313
  2,635
  2,978
  3,341
  3,725
  4,129
  4,552
  4,995
  5,457
  5,939
  6,441
  6,962
  7,505
  8,069
  8,654
  9,263
  9,897
  10,554
  11,238
  11,950
  12,691
  13,463
  14,268
  15,106
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.090
  0.160
  0.210
  0.250
  0.280
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  72
  89
  107
  127
  149
  173
  200
  227
  257
  289
  334
  369
  406
  444
  484
  526
  570
  615
  662
  710
  761
  814
  869
  926
  985
  1,047
  1,111
  1,178
  1,247
  1,320
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  36
  41
  45
  51
  57
  63
  70
  77
  85
  94
  86
  95
  105
  115
  126
  137
  149
  161
  173
  186
  200
  214
  229
  244
  260
  276
  293
  311
  329
  349
Funds from operations, $m
  109
  129
  152
  178
  206
  237
  270
  305
  343
  383
  420
  465
  511
  560
  610
  663
  718
  775
  835
  897
  961
  1,028
  1,097
  1,169
  1,244
  1,322
  1,404
  1,488
  1,577
  1,669
Change in working capital, $m
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
Cash from operations, $m
  92
  110
  131
  154
  180
  208
  239
  272
  308
  345
  381
  423
  468
  514
  563
  614
  667
  722
  780
  839
  901
  966
  1,033
  1,102
  1,174
  1,250
  1,328
  1,410
  1,494
  1,583
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -20
  -24
  -29
  -34
  -40
  -47
  -53
  -61
  -69
  -77
  -86
  -95
  -105
  -115
  -126
  -137
  -149
  -161
  -173
  -186
  -200
  -214
  -229
  -244
  -260
  -276
  -293
  -311
  -329
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -38
  -44
  -51
  -60
  -68
  -77
  -86
  -95
  -106
  -117
  -128
  -139
  -151
  -163
  -176
  -189
  -203
  -218
  -232
  -247
  -263
  -280
  -297
  -316
  -334
  -354
  -374
  -395
  -417
  -439
Free cash flow, $m
  54
  66
  79
  95
  112
  132
  153
  176
  202
  229
  253
  284
  317
  351
  387
  425
  464
  505
  547
  592
  638
  686
  735
  787
  841
  896
  954
  1,015
  1,078
  1,143
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  52
  59
  67
  74
  82
  89
  96
  103
  110
  116
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148
  154
  161
  167
  174
  180
  187
  195
  203
  211
  219
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  39
  38
  35
  31
  24
  15
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  91
  97
  102
  105
  106
  104
  100
  103
  110
  116
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148
  154
  161
  167
  174
  180
  187
  195
  203
  211
  219
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  145
  163
  181
  200
  218
  236
  253
  279
  311
  345
  376
  413
  452
  493
  535
  579
  624
  672
  721
  772
  825
  880
  938
  997
  1,060
  1,124
  1,192
  1,262
  1,335
  1,411
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -111
  -126
  -142
  -158
  -173
  -189
  -204
  -219
  -233
  -247
  -261
  -275
  -288
  -301
  -314
  -328
  -341
  -355
  -369
  -383
  -398
  -414
  -430
  -447
  -465
  -484
  -504
  -525
  -547
  -570
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  61
  78
  98
  115
  139
  164
  192
  220
  251
  283
  317
  352
  389
  427
  466
  507
  550
  594
  640
  688
  737
  788
  841
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  33
  34
  34
  35
  34
  34
  33
  38
  45
  51
  55
  59
  62
  64
  65
  64
  62
  58
  54
  49
  44
  39
  33
  28
  23
  19
  15
  11
  9
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.5
  97.3
  96.4
  95.7
  95.3
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0
  95.0

iRobot Corporation is a consumer robot company, which is engaged in designing and building robots. The Company's portfolio of solutions features various technologies for the connected home and various concepts in mapping, navigation, mobility and artificial intelligence. The Company sells various products that are designed for use at home. Its consumer products focus on both indoor and outdoor cleaning applications. The Company offers multiple Roomba floor vacuuming robots. Roomba's design allows it to clean under kick boards, beds and other furniture. It offers the Braava family of automatic floor mopping robots designed for hard surface floors. The Roomba 600 series robots offer a three-stage cleaning system. The iRobot HOME Application helps users to choose cleaning options for their home. Its Mirra Pool Cleaning Robot is used to clean residential pools. The Company's trademarks include Scooba, ViPR, NorthStar, Create, iAdapt, Aware, Home Base, Looj, Braava, vSLAM and Virtual Wall.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  iRobot (IRBT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 58.8
Price to Sales 3.7
Price to Book 6.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 22.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Return On Total Capital 10.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Return On Equity 10.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.1%
EBITDA Margin 11.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Operating Margin 8.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Net Profit Margin 6.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Effective Tax Rate 31.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

IRBT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IRBT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $883.911 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by iRobot. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of iRobot. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IRBT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IRBT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of iRobot, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of iRobot.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IRBT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IRBT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for iRobot.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for iRobot. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IRBT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IRBT are equal to 10.3%.

Life of production assets of 5.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in iRobot operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IRBT is equal to 8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $470.327 million for iRobot - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.406 million for iRobot is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of iRobot at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.

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