Intrinsic value of iRhythm Technologies - IRTC

Previous Close

$73.10

  Intrinsic Value

$0.87

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$73.10

 
Intrinsic value

$0.87

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of IRTC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  48.70
  44.33
  40.40
  36.86
  33.67
  30.80
  28.22
  25.90
  23.81
  21.93
  20.24
  18.71
  17.34
  16.11
  15.00
  14.00
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
Revenue, $m
  146
  211
  297
  406
  543
  710
  911
  1,147
  1,420
  1,731
  2,081
  2,471
  2,899
  3,366
  3,871
  4,413
  4,991
  5,604
  6,252
  6,934
  7,649
  8,397
  9,178
  9,993
  10,841
  11,723
  12,640
  13,593
  14,584
  15,613
Variable operating expenses, $m
  182
  262
  368
  504
  674
  882
  1,130
  1,423
  1,762
  2,149
  2,583
  3,067
  3,598
  4,178
  4,805
  5,477
  6,195
  6,956
  7,760
  8,606
  9,493
  10,422
  11,392
  12,402
  13,455
  14,550
  15,688
  16,871
  18,100
  19,378
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  182
  262
  368
  504
  674
  882
  1,130
  1,423
  1,762
  2,149
  2,583
  3,067
  3,598
  4,178
  4,805
  5,477
  6,195
  6,956
  7,760
  8,606
  9,493
  10,422
  11,392
  12,402
  13,455
  14,550
  15,688
  16,871
  18,100
  19,378
Operating income, $m
  -35
  -51
  -72
  -98
  -131
  -171
  -220
  -277
  -342
  -417
  -502
  -596
  -699
  -812
  -933
  -1,064
  -1,203
  -1,351
  -1,508
  -1,672
  -1,844
  -2,025
  -2,213
  -2,410
  -2,614
  -2,827
  -3,048
  -3,278
  -3,517
  -3,765
EBITDA, $m
  -34
  -48
  -68
  -93
  -125
  -163
  -209
  -263
  -326
  -397
  -477
  -567
  -665
  -772
  -888
  -1,012
  -1,145
  -1,285
  -1,434
  -1,590
  -1,754
  -1,926
  -2,105
  -2,292
  -2,486
  -2,688
  -2,899
  -3,117
  -3,344
  -3,580
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  3
  5
  8
  12
  17
  23
  31
  41
  52
  64
  79
  95
  113
  133
  155
  178
  204
  230
  259
  289
  321
  354
  389
  425
  463
  503
  544
  587
  631
  677
Earnings before tax, $m
  -39
  -56
  -80
  -110
  -148
  -195
  -251
  -317
  -394
  -482
  -581
  -691
  -812
  -945
  -1,088
  -1,242
  -1,407
  -1,582
  -1,767
  -1,961
  -2,165
  -2,379
  -2,602
  -2,835
  -3,077
  -3,329
  -3,592
  -3,864
  -4,147
  -4,442
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -39
  -56
  -80
  -110
  -148
  -195
  -251
  -317
  -394
  -482
  -581
  -691
  -812
  -945
  -1,088
  -1,242
  -1,407
  -1,582
  -1,767
  -1,961
  -2,165
  -2,379
  -2,602
  -2,835
  -3,077
  -3,329
  -3,592
  -3,864
  -4,147
  -4,442

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  74
  107
  151
  206
  275
  360
  462
  581
  720
  878
  1,055
  1,253
  1,470
  1,707
  1,963
  2,238
  2,531
  2,842
  3,170
  3,516
  3,879
  4,258
  4,654
  5,067
  5,497
  5,945
  6,410
  6,893
  7,395
  7,917
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  74
  107
  151
  206
  275
  360
  462
  581
  720
  878
  1,055
  1,253
  1,470
  1,707
  1,963
  2,238
  2,531
  2,842
  3,170
  3,516
  3,879
  4,258
  4,654
  5,067
  5,497
  5,945
  6,410
  6,893
  7,395
  7,917
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.973
  1.972
  1.967
  1.971
  1.975
  1.972
  1.972
  1.974
  1.972
  1.972
  1.973
  1.972
  1.972
  1.972
  1.972
  1.972
  1.972
  1.972
  1.972
  1.972
  1.972
  1.972
  1.972
  1.972
  1.972
  1.972
  1.972
  1.972
  1.972
  1.972
Average production assets, $m
  9
  12
  18
  24
  32
  42
  54
  68
  84
  102
  123
  146
  171
  199
  228
  260
  294
  331
  369
  409
  451
  495
  542
  590
  640
  692
  746
  802
  860
  921
Working capital, $m
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -16
  -20
  -25
  -31
  -38
  -46
  -54
  -64
  -74
  -85
  -97
  -110
  -123
  -138
  -153
  -168
  -185
  -202
  -220
  -238
  -258
  -278
  -299
  -321
  -343
Total debt, $m
  49
  78
  117
  167
  230
  306
  398
  505
  630
  772
  932
  1,110
  1,305
  1,518
  1,749
  1,996
  2,260
  2,540
  2,835
  3,146
  3,473
  3,814
  4,171
  4,543
  4,930
  5,332
  5,751
  6,186
  6,638
  7,108
Total liabilities, $m
  67
  96
  135
  185
  248
  324
  416
  523
  648
  790
  950
  1,128
  1,323
  1,536
  1,767
  2,014
  2,278
  2,558
  2,853
  3,165
  3,491
  3,832
  4,189
  4,561
  4,948
  5,350
  5,769
  6,204
  6,656
  7,126
Total equity, $m
  7
  11
  15
  21
  28
  36
  46
  58
  72
  88
  106
  125
  147
  171
  196
  224
  253
  284
  317
  352
  388
  426
  465
  507
  550
  594
  641
  689
  740
  792
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  74
  107
  150
  206
  276
  360
  462
  581
  720
  878
  1,056
  1,253
  1,470
  1,707
  1,963
  2,238
  2,531
  2,842
  3,170
  3,517
  3,879
  4,258
  4,654
  5,068
  5,498
  5,944
  6,410
  6,893
  7,396
  7,918
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.560
  7.310
  7.800
  8.120
  8.340
  8.500
  8.610
  8.690
  8.750
  8.790
  8.830
  8.860
  8.880
  8.890
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.980
  8.980
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -39
  -56
  -80
  -110
  -148
  -195
  -251
  -317
  -394
  -482
  -581
  -691
  -812
  -945
  -1,088
  -1,242
  -1,407
  -1,582
  -1,767
  -1,961
  -2,165
  -2,379
  -2,602
  -2,835
  -3,077
  -3,329
  -3,592
  -3,864
  -4,147
  -4,442
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  21
  25
  29
  34
  40
  46
  52
  59
  66
  74
  82
  90
  99
  108
  118
  128
  138
  149
  160
  172
  184
Funds from operations, $m
  -37
  -53
  -76
  -105
  -142
  -186
  -240
  -304
  -377
  -461
  -556
  -662
  -778
  -905
  -1,043
  -1,190
  -1,348
  -1,516
  -1,693
  -1,879
  -2,075
  -2,280
  -2,494
  -2,717
  -2,949
  -3,191
  -3,443
  -3,704
  -3,975
  -4,258
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Cash from operations, $m
  -36
  -52
  -74
  -103
  -139
  -183
  -236
  -298
  -371
  -454
  -548
  -653
  -769
  -895
  -1,032
  -1,178
  -1,335
  -1,502
  -1,679
  -1,864
  -2,059
  -2,263
  -2,477
  -2,699
  -2,931
  -3,172
  -3,422
  -3,683
  -3,954
  -4,235
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -40
  -46
  -52
  -59
  -66
  -74
  -82
  -90
  -99
  -108
  -118
  -128
  -138
  -149
  -160
  -172
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -25
  -30
  -35
  -41
  -48
  -54
  -62
  -70
  -78
  -86
  -95
  -104
  -114
  -124
  -134
  -145
  -156
  -168
  -180
  -192
  -205
  -218
  -233
Free cash flow, $m
  -40
  -58
  -82
  -113
  -151
  -199
  -256
  -323
  -401
  -489
  -589
  -701
  -823
  -957
  -1,101
  -1,256
  -1,422
  -1,597
  -1,783
  -1,978
  -2,183
  -2,398
  -2,622
  -2,855
  -3,099
  -3,352
  -3,615
  -3,888
  -4,172
  -4,468
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  30
  39
  50
  62
  76
  91
  108
  125
  142
  160
  178
  196
  213
  230
  247
  264
  280
  296
  311
  326
  341
  357
  372
  387
  403
  419
  435
  452
  470
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  48
  59
  84
  116
  155
  203
  261
  329
  408
  498
  598
  711
  834
  969
  1,114
  1,270
  1,436
  1,613
  1,799
  1,996
  2,202
  2,417
  2,642
  2,876
  3,120
  3,374
  3,638
  3,913
  4,198
  4,494
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  63
  89
  123
  166
  217
  279
  352
  437
  533
  640
  758
  889
  1,030
  1,182
  1,344
  1,517
  1,700
  1,893
  2,095
  2,307
  2,528
  2,758
  2,999
  3,248
  3,507
  3,777
  4,057
  4,348
  4,650
  4,964
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  23
  31
  41
  53
  66
  81
  97
  114
  132
  150
  169
  188
  206
  225
  243
  261
  279
  296
  312
  329
  345
  361
  376
  392
  409
  425
  442
  459
  477
  496
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -48
  -59
  -84
  -116
  -155
  -203
  -261
  -329
  -408
  -498
  -598
  -711
  -834
  -969
  -1,114
  -1,270
  -1,436
  -1,613
  -1,799
  -1,996
  -2,202
  -2,417
  -2,642
  -2,876
  -3,120
  -3,374
  -3,638
  -3,913
  -4,198
  -4,494
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  81
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  56
  -28
  -43
  -63
  -89
  -123
  -164
  -215
  -276
  -347
  -430
  -523
  -628
  -743
  -871
  -1,009
  -1,158
  -1,317
  -1,487
  -1,667
  -1,857
  -2,056
  -2,265
  -2,484
  -2,712
  -2,949
  -3,196
  -3,453
  -3,720
  -3,998
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  54
  -26
  -37
  -52
  -69
  -89
  -111
  -135
  -159
  -182
  -204
  -223
  -239
  -250
  -256
  -256
  -252
  -243
  -229
  -212
  -192
  -171
  -148
  -127
  -105
  -86
  -69
  -53
  -41
  -30
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  27.8
  15.6
  8.8
  5.0
  2.9
  1.7
  1.0
  0.6
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

iRhythm Technologies, Inc. is a United States-based digital health company. The Company develops and commercializes solutions that integrate biosensor technology, patient data, analytics and medical expertise. The Company offers flagship solution, the ZIO Service. Its ZIO Service consists of the ZIO XT Patch, algorithms and the ZIO Report. Its myZIO provides a way for patients to enter their symptoms as they occur and on-the-go while wearing the ZIO Patch. Its ZIO Event Card is indicated for use on patients who experience transient symptoms, such as syncope, palpitations, and shortness of breath or dizziness. Its ZIO XT Patch is a non-invasive, water-resistant heart monitor, which prompts high patient compliance and a higher diagnostic yield. Its algorithms analyze the amounts of captured heart beat data and a concise report is provided to the patient’s physician. Its ZIO Report produces a higher diagnostic yield and to change patient management.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  iRhythm Technologies (IRTC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -77.1
Price to Sales 25.3
Price to Book 17.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -95.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -80.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 77.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 34.4%
Total Debt to Equity 34.4%
Interest Coverage -10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -21.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -67.4%
Return On Total Capital -27.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -111.1%
Return On Equity -47.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1339.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 67.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.5%
EBITDA Margin -28.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -54.9%
Operating Margin -25%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -51.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -32.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -56.5%
Net Profit Margin -32.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -56.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

IRTC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IRTC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $98.509 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by iRhythm Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of iRhythm Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IRTC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 48.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IRTC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of iRhythm Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of iRhythm Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IRTC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 124.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IRTC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.2% for iRhythm Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for iRhythm Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IRTC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IRTC are equal to 5.9%.

Life of production assets of 3.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in iRhythm Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IRTC is equal to -2.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $79.553 million for iRhythm Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 22.73 million for iRhythm Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of iRhythm Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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