Intrinsic value of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Cl A - IRWD

Previous Close

$15.72

  Intrinsic Value

$3.47

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-78%

Previous close

$15.72

 
Intrinsic value

$3.47

 
Up/down potential

-78%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IRWD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  82.67
  20.40
  18.86
  17.47
  16.23
  15.10
  14.09
  13.18
  12.37
  11.63
  10.97
  10.37
  9.83
  9.35
  8.91
  8.52
  8.17
  7.85
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.69
  6.52
  6.36
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
Revenue, $m
  274
  330
  392
  461
  535
  616
  703
  796
  894
  998
  1,108
  1,223
  1,343
  1,468
  1,599
  1,735
  1,877
  2,025
  2,178
  2,337
  2,503
  2,675
  2,853
  3,039
  3,233
  3,434
  3,644
  3,862
  4,090
  4,327
  4,575
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  198
  235
  276
  321
  369
  421
  476
  535
  598
  663
  732
  804
  879
  957
  1,039
  1,124
  1,212
  1,304
  1,399
  1,498
  1,601
  1,708
  1,819
  1,935
  2,056
  2,181
  2,312
  2,448
  2,591
  2,739
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  170
  174
  179
  183
  188
  193
  197
  202
  207
  212
  218
  223
  229
  235
  240
  246
  253
  259
  265
  272
  279
  286
  293
  300
  308
  315
  323
  331
  340
  348
Total operating expenses, $m
  326
  368
  409
  455
  504
  557
  614
  673
  737
  805
  875
  950
  1,027
  1,108
  1,192
  1,279
  1,370
  1,465
  1,563
  1,664
  1,770
  1,880
  1,994
  2,112
  2,235
  2,364
  2,496
  2,635
  2,779
  2,931
  3,087
Operating income, $m
  -52
  -38
  -17
  6
  32
  59
  90
  122
  157
  193
  232
  273
  316
  360
  407
  456
  507
  560
  615
  673
  732
  795
  859
  927
  997
  1,071
  1,147
  1,227
  1,310
  1,397
  1,488
EBITDA, $m
  -41
  -25
  -1
  25
  53
  84
  118
  154
  192
  233
  276
  322
  369
  419
  471
  526
  582
  641
  702
  766
  833
  902
  974
  1,049
  1,127
  1,208
  1,293
  1,381
  1,474
  1,570
  1,671
Interest expense (income), $m
  24
  23
  11
  16
  22
  28
  35
  43
  50
  59
  68
  77
  87
  97
  108
  119
  130
  142
  155
  168
  182
  196
  210
  225
  241
  258
  275
  293
  311
  331
  351
Earnings before tax, $m
  -82
  -61
  -28
  -10
  10
  31
  54
  79
  106
  134
  164
  196
  229
  264
  300
  337
  377
  418
  460
  505
  551
  599
  649
  701
  756
  813
  872
  934
  999
  1,066
  1,137
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  3
  8
  15
  21
  29
  36
  44
  53
  62
  71
  81
  91
  102
  113
  124
  136
  149
  162
  175
  189
  204
  219
  235
  252
  270
  288
  307
Net income, $m
  -82
  -61
  -28
  -10
  7
  23
  40
  58
  77
  98
  120
  143
  167
  192
  219
  246
  275
  305
  336
  368
  402
  437
  474
  512
  552
  593
  637
  682
  729
  779
  830

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  305
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  710
  487
  579
  680
  791
  910
  1,039
  1,175
  1,321
  1,474
  1,636
  1,806
  1,983
  2,169
  2,362
  2,563
  2,773
  2,991
  3,217
  3,452
  3,697
  3,951
  4,215
  4,489
  4,775
  5,073
  5,382
  5,705
  6,041
  6,392
  6,758
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  405
  487
  579
  680
  791
  910
  1,039
  1,175
  1,321
  1,474
  1,636
  1,806
  1,983
  2,169
  2,362
  2,563
  2,773
  2,991
  3,217
  3,452
  3,697
  3,951
  4,215
  4,489
  4,775
  5,073
  5,382
  5,705
  6,041
  6,392
  6,758
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.677
  0.678
  0.677
  0.678
  0.676
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
Average production assets, $m
  104
  125
  149
  175
  203
  234
  267
  302
  340
  379
  421
  465
  510
  558
  608
  659
  713
  769
  828
  888
  951
  1,016
  1,084
  1,155
  1,228
  1,305
  1,385
  1,468
  1,554
  1,644
  1,739
Working capital, $m
  289
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -62
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -96
  -103
  -109
  -116
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -165
Total debt, $m
  373
  169
  251
  342
  442
  549
  665
  788
  919
  1,057
  1,202
  1,355
  1,515
  1,682
  1,856
  2,037
  2,226
  2,422
  2,625
  2,837
  3,057
  3,286
  3,523
  3,770
  4,028
  4,295
  4,574
  4,864
  5,167
  5,483
  5,812
Total liabilities, $m
  643
  439
  521
  612
  712
  819
  935
  1,058
  1,189
  1,327
  1,472
  1,625
  1,785
  1,952
  2,126
  2,307
  2,496
  2,692
  2,895
  3,107
  3,327
  3,556
  3,793
  4,040
  4,298
  4,565
  4,844
  5,134
  5,437
  5,753
  6,082
Total equity, $m
  67
  49
  58
  68
  79
  91
  104
  118
  132
  147
  164
  181
  198
  217
  236
  256
  277
  299
  322
  345
  370
  395
  421
  449
  478
  507
  538
  570
  604
  639
  676
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  710
  488
  579
  680
  791
  910
  1,039
  1,176
  1,321
  1,474
  1,636
  1,806
  1,983
  2,169
  2,362
  2,563
  2,773
  2,991
  3,217
  3,452
  3,697
  3,951
  4,214
  4,489
  4,776
  5,072
  5,382
  5,704
  6,041
  6,392
  6,758
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.567
  3.460
  4.340
  5.030
  5.590
  6.030
  6.400
  6.700
  6.960
  7.170
  7.350
  7.500
  7.640
  7.760
  7.860
  7.950
  8.030
  8.100
  8.160
  8.220
  8.270
  8.320
  8.360
  8.400
  8.430
  8.470
  8.500
  8.530
  8.550
  8.580
  8.600
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.588
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -82
  -61
  -28
  -10
  7
  23
  40
  58
  77
  98
  120
  143
  167
  192
  219
  246
  275
  305
  336
  368
  402
  437
  474
  512
  552
  593
  637
  682
  729
  779
  830
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  122
  129
  137
  146
  154
  164
  173
  183
Funds from operations, $m
  -30
  -48
  -12
  8
  29
  47
  68
  90
  113
  138
  164
  192
  221
  251
  283
  316
  350
  386
  423
  462
  502
  544
  588
  634
  681
  731
  782
  836
  893
  952
  1,013
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Cash from operations, $m
  -25
  -46
  -10
  11
  31
  50
  71
  93
  117
  142
  168
  196
  225
  256
  287
  321
  355
  391
  429
  468
  508
  550
  594
  640
  688
  738
  790
  844
  901
  960
  1,022
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -146
  -154
  -164
  -173
New CAPEX, $m
  -104
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -178
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -131
  -139
  -148
  -156
  -165
  -175
  -185
  -196
  -206
  -217
  -229
  -241
  -254
  -267
Free cash flow, $m
  -203
  -78
  -47
  -31
  -16
  -2
  13
  30
  48
  67
  87
  108
  131
  154
  179
  205
  232
  260
  289
  320
  352
  385
  420
  456
  493
  532
  573
  615
  660
  706
  755
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -29
  -198
  83
  91
  99
  107
  115
  123
  131
  138
  146
  153
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  196
  204
  212
  220
  229
  238
  247
  257
  268
  279
  290
  303
  316
  329
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  25
  342
  37
  20
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  144
  120
  111
  103
  107
  115
  123
  131
  138
  146
  153
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  196
  204
  212
  220
  229
  238
  247
  257
  268
  279
  290
  303
  316
  329
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -207
  65
  73
  80
  88
  106
  129
  153
  178
  205
  232
  261
  290
  321
  353
  386
  420
  456
  493
  532
  572
  614
  657
  703
  750
  800
  852
  906
  963
  1,022
  1,084
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  28
  -342
  -37
  -20
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  299
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  22
  36
  60
  77
  94
  116
  139
  164
  189
  216
  244
  273
  303
  334
  366
  399
  434
  470
  508
  547
  588
  631
  675
  722
  770
  821
  874
  929
  987
  1,048
Discount rate, %
 
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  21
  31
  48
  56
  63
  70
  75
  78
  79
  78
  76
  71
  66
  60
  54
  47
  40
  33
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  46.5
  44.9
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6
  44.6

Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company. The Company is advancing product opportunities in areas of unmet need, including irritable bowel syndrome with constipation (IBS C), and chronic idiopathic constipation (CIC), hyperuricemia associated with uncontrolled gout, uncontrolled gastroesophageal reflux disease (uncontrolled GERD), and vascular and fibrotic diseases. It operates in human therapeutics business segment. Its product, linaclotide, is available to adult men and women suffering from IBS C or CIC in the United States under the trademarked name LINZESS, and is available to adult men and women suffering from IBS C in certain European countries under the trademarked name CONSTELLA. It is also advancing IW-3718, a gastric retentive formulation of a bile acid sequestrant with the potential to provide symptomatic relief in patients with uncontrolled GERD. Its vascular/fibrotic programs include IW-1973 and IW-1701, which targets soluble guanylate cyclase (sGC).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Cl A (IRWD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -28.3
Price to Sales 8.5
Price to Book 34.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -92.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -18
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 82.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 2500%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 59.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 51
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 547.8%
Total Debt to Equity 556.7%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -30%
Return On Total Capital -17.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.3%
Return On Equity -101.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -185.3%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 99.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 88.8%
EBITDA Margin -17.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -99%
Operating Margin -19%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -103.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -29.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -125.1%
Net Profit Margin -29.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -125.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

IRWD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IRWD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $274 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IRWD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for IRWD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IRWD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 59.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $166 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IRWD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.4% for Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IRWD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IRWD are equal to 38%.

Life of production assets of 9.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IRWD is equal to -3.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $67 million for Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 149.8 million for Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ironwood reports 3Q loss   [Nov-02-17 08:27AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Announces Leadership Change   [Sep-06-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ironwood gets FDA approval for new drug for gout   [Aug-21-17 12:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Ironwood Pharma Muted Despite FDA Approval   [11:38AM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Ironwood reports 2Q loss   [12:07AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Ironwood's Growth About to Slow?   [Jun-05-17 09:01AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ironwood reports 1Q loss   [08:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ Synergy Pharmaceuticals: Approval, Now What?   [Mar-13-17 09:29AM  Motley Fool]
Financial statements of IRWD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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