Intrinsic value of International Speedway Cl A - ISCA

Previous Close

$42.55

  Intrinsic Value

$11.91

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-72%

Previous close

$42.55

 
Intrinsic value

$11.91

 
Up/down potential

-72%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ISCA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.90
  4.01
  4.11
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.47
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.83
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
Revenue, $m
  698
  726
  755
  787
  821
  857
  894
  934
  977
  1,021
  1,068
  1,118
  1,171
  1,226
  1,284
  1,345
  1,410
  1,478
  1,549
  1,624
  1,703
  1,787
  1,874
  1,966
  2,062
  2,164
  2,271
  2,383
  2,500
  2,624
Variable operating expenses, $m
  581
  603
  627
  652
  679
  707
  737
  769
  802
  837
  845
  884
  926
  969
  1,015
  1,064
  1,115
  1,169
  1,225
  1,285
  1,347
  1,413
  1,482
  1,555
  1,631
  1,711
  1,795
  1,884
  1,977
  2,075
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  581
  603
  627
  652
  679
  707
  737
  769
  802
  837
  845
  884
  926
  969
  1,015
  1,064
  1,115
  1,169
  1,225
  1,285
  1,347
  1,413
  1,482
  1,555
  1,631
  1,711
  1,795
  1,884
  1,977
  2,075
Operating income, $m
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  150
  157
  166
  175
  184
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  295
  309
  324
  340
  356
  374
  392
  411
  432
  453
  475
  499
  523
  549
EBITDA, $m
  250
  260
  271
  282
  295
  307
  321
  335
  350
  367
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
  483
  506
  530
  556
  583
  611
  641
  673
  705
  740
  777
  815
  855
  897
  942
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
Earnings before tax, $m
  102
  107
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  145
  152
  189
  196
  204
  213
  221
  231
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
  340
  355
  372
  389
  407
  426
Tax expense, $m
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
Net income, $m
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  168
  176
  183
  191
  200
  208
  218
  227
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,114
  2,199
  2,289
  2,385
  2,487
  2,595
  2,710
  2,831
  2,959
  3,095
  3,238
  3,388
  3,547
  3,715
  3,891
  4,077
  4,272
  4,478
  4,695
  4,922
  5,162
  5,414
  5,679
  5,957
  6,250
  6,557
  6,881
  7,220
  7,577
  7,952
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,114
  2,199
  2,289
  2,385
  2,487
  2,595
  2,710
  2,831
  2,959
  3,095
  3,238
  3,388
  3,547
  3,715
  3,891
  4,077
  4,272
  4,478
  4,695
  4,922
  5,162
  5,414
  5,679
  5,957
  6,250
  6,557
  6,881
  7,220
  7,577
  7,952
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
Average production assets, $m
  1,681
  1,748
  1,820
  1,896
  1,977
  2,063
  2,154
  2,251
  2,353
  2,460
  2,574
  2,694
  2,820
  2,953
  3,093
  3,241
  3,396
  3,560
  3,732
  3,913
  4,104
  4,304
  4,514
  4,736
  4,968
  5,213
  5,470
  5,740
  6,023
  6,322
Working capital, $m
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
Total debt, $m
  289
  320
  353
  388
  425
  465
  507
  551
  598
  648
  700
  755
  813
  875
  939
  1,007
  1,079
  1,154
  1,233
  1,317
  1,404
  1,497
  1,593
  1,695
  1,802
  1,915
  2,033
  2,158
  2,288
  2,425
Total liabilities, $m
  774
  805
  838
  873
  910
  950
  992
  1,036
  1,083
  1,133
  1,185
  1,240
  1,298
  1,360
  1,424
  1,492
  1,564
  1,639
  1,718
  1,802
  1,889
  1,981
  2,078
  2,180
  2,287
  2,400
  2,518
  2,643
  2,773
  2,910
Total equity, $m
  1,340
  1,394
  1,451
  1,512
  1,577
  1,646
  1,718
  1,795
  1,876
  1,962
  2,053
  2,148
  2,249
  2,355
  2,467
  2,585
  2,709
  2,839
  2,976
  3,121
  3,273
  3,432
  3,600
  3,777
  3,962
  4,157
  4,362
  4,578
  4,804
  5,042
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,114
  2,199
  2,289
  2,385
  2,487
  2,596
  2,710
  2,831
  2,959
  3,095
  3,238
  3,388
  3,547
  3,715
  3,891
  4,077
  4,273
  4,478
  4,694
  4,923
  5,162
  5,413
  5,678
  5,957
  6,249
  6,557
  6,880
  7,221
  7,577
  7,952
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634
  0.634

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  168
  176
  183
  191
  200
  208
  218
  227
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  134
  138
  143
  147
  153
  158
  164
  170
  176
  183
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  211
  221
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  294
  309
  324
  340
  357
  374
  393
Funds from operations, $m
  209
  216
  224
  232
  241
  250
  260
  271
  282
  293
  298
  311
  324
  339
  354
  370
  387
  404
  423
  443
  463
  485
  508
  532
  557
  583
  611
  640
  671
  703
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  209
  217
  224
  233
  242
  251
  261
  271
  282
  294
  298
  311
  325
  340
  355
  371
  388
  406
  424
  444
  465
  486
  509
  533
  559
  585
  613
  642
  673
  706
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -255
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -309
  -324
  -340
  -357
  -374
New CAPEX, $m
  -64
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -155
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -211
  -221
  -233
  -244
  -257
  -270
  -284
  -298
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -164
  -171
  -181
  -189
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -254
  -267
  -280
  -293
  -308
  -323
  -340
  -356
  -375
  -393
  -413
  -433
  -455
  -478
  -501
  -527
  -553
  -581
  -610
  -641
  -672
Free cash flow, $m
  45
  45
  44
  43
  43
  42
  42
  41
  41
  40
  32
  32
  32
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  32
  32
  32
  32
  33
  33
  33
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  118
  124
  131
  137
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  118
  124
  131
  137
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  74
  76
  77
  78
  80
  82
  84
  85
  88
  90
  84
  87
  90
  93
  96
  99
  103
  106
  110
  114
  119
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -238
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  171
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  193
  22
  20
  18
  15
  13
  11
  9
  6
  4
  -6
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -63
  -67
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  185
  20
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

International Speedway Corporation is an owner of motorsports entertainment facilities and promoter of motorsports themed entertainment activities in the United States. The Company's motorsports themed event operations consist of racing events at its motorsports entertainment facilities. As of November 30, 2016, the Company owned and/or operated 13 of the nation's motorsports entertainment facilities: Daytona International Speedway in Florida; Talladega Superspeedway in Alabama; Michigan International Speedway in Michigan; Auto Club Speedway of Southern California in California; Kansas Speedway in Kansas; Richmond International Raceway in Virginia; Darlington Raceway in South Carolina; Chicagoland Speedway in Illinois; Martinsville Speedway in Virginia; Phoenix International Raceway in Arizona; Homestead-Miami Speedway in Florida; Watkins Glen International in New York, and Route 66 Raceway in Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  International Speedway Cl A (ISCA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.9
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 88
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 18.6%
Total Debt to Equity 18.8%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Equity 5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 49.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.8%
EBITDA Margin 36.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33%
Operating Margin 16.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Net Profit Margin 11.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Effective Tax Rate 38.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.6%
Payout Ratio 25%

ISCA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ISCA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $671.433 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by International Speedway Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of International Speedway Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ISCA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ISCA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of International Speedway Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of International Speedway Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ISCA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ISCA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for International Speedway Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for International Speedway Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ISCA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ISCA are equal to 240.9%.

Life of production assets of 16.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in International Speedway Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ISCA is equal to -1.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1459.922 million for International Speedway Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.421 million for International Speedway Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of International Speedway Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
TRK Speedway Motor 17.50 9.16  sell
DVD Dover Motorspo 1.97 1.29  sell
CHDN Churchill Down 258.99 155.68  sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ ISM Raceway open to ideas on alternative events at track   [Nov-13-18 12:23PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Company News For Nov 13, 2018   [09:30AM  Zacks]
▶ [$$] Nascar Offers to Buy International Speedway   [Nov-11-18 07:37PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Nascar Offers to Buy International Speedway   [Nov-09-18 05:35PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ International Speedway's Q3 Earnings Preview   [Oct-03-18 02:05PM  Benzinga]
▶ ISM Raceway president set to step down   [Aug-22-18 05:08PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Brian France says family is committed to running NASCAR   [Jul-25-18 04:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ AP source: NASCAR memo: France family 'dedicated' to sport   [May-08-18 08:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ International Speedway Corp. exec on One Daytona, more opportunities and bass fishing   [Apr-20-18 12:07PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ International Speedway posts 1Q profit   [07:44AM  Associated Press]
▶ International Speedway posts 4Q profit   [08:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Company News For Oct 6, 2017   [Oct-06-17 10:40AM  Zacks]
▶ International Speedway posts 3Q profit   [08:22AM  Associated Press]

CONTACT US       ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2018. All rigths reserved.