Intrinsic value of Intuitive Surgical - ISRG

Previous Close

$561.18

  Intrinsic Value

$177.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-68%

Previous close

$561.18

 
Intrinsic value

$177.43

 
Up/down potential

-68%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ISRG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 63.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.80
  18.32
  16.99
  15.79
  14.71
  13.74
  12.87
  12.08
  11.37
  10.73
  10.16
  9.64
  9.18
  8.76
  8.39
  8.05
  7.74
  7.47
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
Revenue, $m
  3,748
  4,435
  5,189
  6,008
  6,892
  7,838
  8,847
  9,915
  11,043
  12,228
  13,471
  14,770
  16,126
  17,539
  19,009
  20,539
  22,129
  23,782
  25,499
  27,284
  29,139
  31,068
  33,074
  35,162
  37,335
  39,599
  41,957
  44,416
  46,981
  49,658
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,429
  2,866
  3,346
  3,869
  4,432
  5,035
  5,678
  6,359
  7,078
  7,833
  8,585
  9,413
  10,277
  11,178
  12,115
  13,090
  14,103
  15,157
  16,251
  17,389
  18,571
  19,800
  21,079
  22,409
  23,794
  25,237
  26,740
  28,307
  29,942
  31,648
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,429
  2,866
  3,346
  3,869
  4,432
  5,035
  5,678
  6,359
  7,078
  7,833
  8,585
  9,413
  10,277
  11,178
  12,115
  13,090
  14,103
  15,157
  16,251
  17,389
  18,571
  19,800
  21,079
  22,409
  23,794
  25,237
  26,740
  28,307
  29,942
  31,648
Operating income, $m
  1,320
  1,569
  1,842
  2,139
  2,460
  2,803
  3,169
  3,556
  3,965
  4,395
  4,886
  5,357
  5,849
  6,361
  6,894
  7,449
  8,026
  8,625
  9,248
  9,896
  10,568
  11,268
  11,996
  12,753
  13,541
  14,362
  15,217
  16,109
  17,039
  18,010
EBITDA, $m
  1,454
  1,721
  2,013
  2,331
  2,674
  3,041
  3,432
  3,847
  4,284
  4,744
  5,226
  5,730
  6,256
  6,804
  7,375
  7,968
  8,585
  9,226
  9,893
  10,585
  11,305
  12,053
  12,832
  13,641
  14,485
  15,363
  16,278
  17,232
  18,227
  19,265
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  11
  23
  35
  50
  65
  81
  99
  117
  136
  157
  178
  201
  224
  248
  274
  300
  327
  356
  385
  416
  448
  481
  516
  552
  589
  628
  669
  711
  755
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,320
  1,558
  1,820
  2,104
  2,410
  2,738
  3,088
  3,458
  3,848
  4,259
  4,729
  5,179
  5,648
  6,137
  6,646
  7,176
  7,726
  8,298
  8,892
  9,510
  10,152
  10,820
  11,514
  12,237
  12,989
  13,773
  14,589
  15,440
  16,328
  17,255
Tax expense, $m
  356
  421
  491
  568
  651
  739
  834
  934
  1,039
  1,150
  1,277
  1,398
  1,525
  1,657
  1,794
  1,937
  2,086
  2,240
  2,401
  2,568
  2,741
  2,921
  3,109
  3,304
  3,507
  3,719
  3,939
  4,169
  4,409
  4,659
Net income, $m
  963
  1,137
  1,328
  1,536
  1,759
  1,999
  2,254
  2,524
  2,809
  3,109
  3,452
  3,780
  4,123
  4,480
  4,852
  5,238
  5,640
  6,058
  6,491
  6,942
  7,411
  7,899
  8,405
  8,933
  9,482
  10,054
  10,650
  11,271
  11,919
  12,596

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,363
  6,345
  7,423
  8,595
  9,859
  11,214
  12,656
  14,185
  15,798
  17,494
  19,271
  21,130
  23,070
  25,091
  27,195
  29,384
  31,659
  34,023
  36,480
  39,033
  41,687
  44,447
  47,317
  50,303
  53,412
  56,650
  60,025
  63,543
  67,212
  71,041
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,363
  6,345
  7,423
  8,595
  9,859
  11,214
  12,656
  14,185
  15,798
  17,494
  19,271
  21,130
  23,070
  25,091
  27,195
  29,384
  31,659
  34,023
  36,480
  39,033
  41,687
  44,447
  47,317
  50,303
  53,412
  56,650
  60,025
  63,543
  67,212
  71,041
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
  0.699
Average production assets, $m
  862
  1,020
  1,193
  1,382
  1,585
  1,803
  2,035
  2,281
  2,540
  2,813
  3,098
  3,397
  3,709
  4,034
  4,372
  4,724
  5,090
  5,470
  5,865
  6,275
  6,702
  7,146
  7,607
  8,087
  8,587
  9,108
  9,650
  10,216
  10,806
  11,421
Working capital, $m
  221
  262
  306
  354
  407
  462
  522
  585
  652
  721
  795
  871
  951
  1,035
  1,122
  1,212
  1,306
  1,403
  1,504
  1,610
  1,719
  1,833
  1,951
  2,075
  2,203
  2,336
  2,475
  2,621
  2,772
  2,930
Total debt, $m
  198
  417
  657
  919
  1,201
  1,503
  1,824
  2,165
  2,525
  2,903
  3,300
  3,714
  4,147
  4,597
  5,067
  5,555
  6,062
  6,589
  7,137
  7,706
  8,298
  8,914
  9,554
  10,220
  10,913
  11,635
  12,388
  13,172
  13,990
  14,844
Total liabilities, $m
  1,196
  1,415
  1,655
  1,917
  2,199
  2,501
  2,822
  3,163
  3,523
  3,901
  4,298
  4,712
  5,145
  5,595
  6,065
  6,553
  7,060
  7,587
  8,135
  8,704
  9,296
  9,912
  10,552
  11,218
  11,911
  12,633
  13,386
  14,170
  14,988
  15,842
Total equity, $m
  4,167
  4,930
  5,768
  6,678
  7,661
  8,713
  9,834
  11,022
  12,275
  13,593
  14,974
  16,418
  17,925
  19,496
  21,131
  22,831
  24,599
  26,436
  28,345
  30,329
  32,391
  34,535
  36,765
  39,086
  41,501
  44,017
  46,639
  49,373
  52,224
  55,199
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,363
  6,345
  7,423
  8,595
  9,860
  11,214
  12,656
  14,185
  15,798
  17,494
  19,272
  21,130
  23,070
  25,091
  27,196
  29,384
  31,659
  34,023
  36,480
  39,033
  41,687
  44,447
  47,317
  50,304
  53,412
  56,650
  60,025
  63,543
  67,212
  71,041
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.050
  0.080
  0.110
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  963
  1,137
  1,328
  1,536
  1,759
  1,999
  2,254
  2,524
  2,809
  3,109
  3,452
  3,780
  4,123
  4,480
  4,852
  5,238
  5,640
  6,058
  6,491
  6,942
  7,411
  7,899
  8,405
  8,933
  9,482
  10,054
  10,650
  11,271
  11,919
  12,596
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  134
  152
  171
  192
  214
  238
  263
  290
  319
  349
  340
  373
  408
  443
  480
  519
  559
  601
  644
  690
  736
  785
  836
  889
  944
  1,001
  1,060
  1,123
  1,187
  1,255
Funds from operations, $m
  1,098
  1,289
  1,499
  1,727
  1,973
  2,237
  2,517
  2,815
  3,128
  3,458
  3,793
  4,154
  4,531
  4,923
  5,332
  5,757
  6,199
  6,659
  7,136
  7,632
  8,148
  8,684
  9,241
  9,822
  10,426
  11,055
  11,710
  12,394
  13,107
  13,851
Change in working capital, $m
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  158
Cash from operations, $m
  1,061
  1,249
  1,455
  1,679
  1,921
  2,181
  2,458
  2,752
  3,062
  3,388
  3,719
  4,077
  4,451
  4,840
  5,245
  5,667
  6,106
  6,561
  7,035
  7,527
  8,038
  8,570
  9,123
  9,698
  10,297
  10,921
  11,571
  12,249
  12,956
  13,693
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -79
  -95
  -112
  -131
  -152
  -174
  -198
  -224
  -251
  -279
  -309
  -340
  -373
  -408
  -443
  -480
  -519
  -559
  -601
  -644
  -690
  -736
  -785
  -836
  -889
  -944
  -1,001
  -1,060
  -1,123
  -1,187
New CAPEX, $m
  -141
  -158
  -173
  -188
  -203
  -218
  -232
  -246
  -259
  -273
  -286
  -299
  -312
  -325
  -338
  -352
  -366
  -380
  -395
  -410
  -427
  -444
  -461
  -480
  -500
  -521
  -542
  -566
  -590
  -616
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -220
  -253
  -285
  -319
  -355
  -392
  -430
  -470
  -510
  -552
  -595
  -639
  -685
  -733
  -781
  -832
  -885
  -939
  -996
  -1,054
  -1,117
  -1,180
  -1,246
  -1,316
  -1,389
  -1,465
  -1,543
  -1,626
  -1,713
  -1,803
Free cash flow, $m
  841
  996
  1,169
  1,359
  1,566
  1,789
  2,028
  2,282
  2,552
  2,836
  3,124
  3,438
  3,765
  4,107
  4,464
  4,835
  5,221
  5,622
  6,039
  6,472
  6,922
  7,390
  7,876
  8,382
  8,909
  9,457
  10,028
  10,623
  11,243
  11,890
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  198
  219
  240
  261
  282
  302
  322
  341
  360
  378
  396
  414
  433
  451
  469
  488
  507
  527
  548
  569
  592
  615
  640
  666
  693
  722
  752
  784
  818
  854
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  198
  219
  240
  261
  282
  302
  322
  341
  360
  378
  396
  414
  433
  451
  469
  488
  507
  527
  548
  569
  592
  615
  640
  666
  693
  722
  752
  784
  818
  854
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,039
  1,215
  1,410
  1,621
  1,848
  2,091
  2,350
  2,623
  2,911
  3,214
  3,521
  3,852
  4,198
  4,558
  4,933
  5,323
  5,728
  6,149
  6,586
  7,041
  7,514
  8,005
  8,516
  9,048
  9,602
  10,179
  10,780
  11,407
  12,061
  12,744
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -686
  -763
  -838
  -911
  -982
  -1,053
  -1,121
  -1,188
  -1,253
  -1,318
  -1,381
  -1,444
  -1,507
  -1,571
  -1,635
  -1,700
  -1,768
  -1,837
  -1,909
  -1,984
  -2,062
  -2,144
  -2,230
  -2,321
  -2,416
  -2,516
  -2,622
  -2,733
  -2,851
  -2,975
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1,298
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,651
  452
  572
  710
  866
  1,039
  1,229
  1,435
  1,658
  1,897
  2,140
  2,408
  2,691
  2,988
  3,298
  3,622
  3,960
  4,312
  4,677
  5,057
  5,452
  5,861
  6,286
  6,728
  7,186
  7,663
  8,159
  8,674
  9,210
  9,769
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,583
  414
  498
  585
  671
  754
  830
  897
  953
  994
  1,016
  1,028
  1,023
  1,003
  968
  921
  862
  794
  720
  643
  564
  486
  412
  343
  280
  224
  175
  134
  101
  74
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (Intuitive) designs, manufactures and markets da Vinci Surgical Systems, and related instruments and accessories. The Company's da Vinci Surgical System consists of a surgeon's console, a patient-side cart and a vision system. The da Vinci Surgical System translates a surgeon's hand movements, which are performed on instrument controls at a console, into corresponding micro-movements of instruments positioned inside the patient through small incisions or ports. The da Vinci Surgical System provides its operating surgeons with control, range of motion, tissue manipulation capability and three-dimensional (3-D), high-definition (HD) vision. Intuitive has four generations of da Vinci Surgical System: the da Vinci Xi Surgical System, the da Vinci Si Surgical System, the da Vinci S Surgical System and the standard da Vinci Surgical System. The Company's instruments and accessories include EndoWrist Instruments and da Vinci Single-Site.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 88.8
Price to Sales 24.2
Price to Book 11.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 62.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 66
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Return On Total Capital 14.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Return On Equity 14.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.5%
EBITDA Margin 39.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.8%
Operating Margin 34.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 36.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Net Profit Margin 27.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Effective Tax Rate 25%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

ISRG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ISRG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3128.9 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Intuitive Surgical. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Intuitive Surgical. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ISRG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ISRG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Intuitive Surgical, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Intuitive Surgical.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ISRG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 65%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ISRG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Intuitive Surgical.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Intuitive Surgical. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ISRG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ISRG are equal to 23%.

Life of production assets of 9.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Intuitive Surgical operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ISRG is equal to 5.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4778.8 million for Intuitive Surgical - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 113.295 million for Intuitive Surgical is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Intuitive Surgical at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $63.6 billion.

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