Intrinsic value of Intuitive Surgical, Inc. - ISRG

Previous Close

$526.25

  Intrinsic Value

$178.32

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-66%

Previous close

$526.25

 
Intrinsic value

$178.32

 
Up/down potential

-66%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ISRG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 60.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.30
  16.07
  14.96
  13.97
  13.07
  12.26
  11.54
  10.88
  10.29
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.47
  8.13
  7.81
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.72
  5.64
  5.58
Revenue, $m
  4,368
  5,070
  5,829
  6,643
  7,511
  8,432
  9,405
  10,429
  11,502
  12,626
  13,798
  15,021
  16,294
  17,618
  18,994
  20,425
  21,912
  23,457
  25,063
  26,733
  28,469
  30,275
  32,156
  34,114
  36,155
  38,282
  40,500
  42,815
  45,231
  47,755
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,873
  3,322
  3,807
  4,327
  4,882
  5,471
  6,093
  6,747
  7,433
  8,151
  8,820
  9,601
  10,415
  11,261
  12,141
  13,056
  14,006
  14,994
  16,020
  17,087
  18,197
  19,352
  20,554
  21,806
  23,110
  24,470
  25,887
  27,367
  28,911
  30,525
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,873
  3,322
  3,807
  4,327
  4,882
  5,471
  6,093
  6,747
  7,433
  8,151
  8,820
  9,601
  10,415
  11,261
  12,141
  13,056
  14,006
  14,994
  16,020
  17,087
  18,197
  19,352
  20,554
  21,806
  23,110
  24,470
  25,887
  27,367
  28,911
  30,525
Operating income, $m
  1,495
  1,748
  2,022
  2,316
  2,629
  2,961
  3,312
  3,682
  4,069
  4,474
  4,978
  5,420
  5,879
  6,357
  6,853
  7,369
  7,906
  8,463
  9,043
  9,645
  10,272
  10,924
  11,602
  12,309
  13,045
  13,812
  14,613
  15,448
  16,320
  17,230
EBITDA, $m
  1,692
  1,964
  2,258
  2,573
  2,909
  3,266
  3,643
  4,039
  4,455
  4,890
  5,345
  5,818
  6,311
  6,824
  7,357
  7,911
  8,487
  9,086
  9,708
  10,354
  11,027
  11,727
  12,455
  13,214
  14,004
  14,828
  15,687
  16,583
  17,519
  18,497
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  11
  23
  35
  49
  64
  79
  96
  113
  131
  150
  170
  191
  212
  235
  258
  282
  307
  333
  360
  388
  418
  448
  480
  513
  548
  584
  621
  660
  701
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,495
  1,737
  1,999
  2,280
  2,580
  2,897
  3,233
  3,586
  3,956
  4,343
  4,828
  5,250
  5,688
  6,144
  6,619
  7,112
  7,624
  8,156
  8,710
  9,285
  9,883
  10,506
  11,154
  11,829
  12,532
  13,265
  14,029
  14,827
  15,659
  16,529
Tax expense, $m
  404
  469
  540
  616
  697
  782
  873
  968
  1,068
  1,173
  1,304
  1,417
  1,536
  1,659
  1,787
  1,920
  2,058
  2,202
  2,352
  2,507
  2,668
  2,837
  3,012
  3,194
  3,384
  3,581
  3,788
  4,003
  4,228
  4,463
Net income, $m
  1,091
  1,268
  1,460
  1,665
  1,883
  2,115
  2,360
  2,618
  2,888
  3,170
  3,525
  3,832
  4,152
  4,485
  4,832
  5,192
  5,566
  5,954
  6,358
  6,778
  7,215
  7,669
  8,142
  8,635
  9,148
  9,683
  10,241
  10,824
  11,431
  12,066

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,569
  7,624
  8,765
  9,989
  11,295
  12,680
  14,143
  15,682
  17,297
  18,986
  20,749
  22,588
  24,502
  26,493
  28,563
  30,715
  32,950
  35,274
  37,689
  40,199
  42,810
  45,527
  48,355
  51,300
  54,368
  57,567
  60,902
  64,383
  68,017
  71,812
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,569
  7,624
  8,765
  9,989
  11,295
  12,680
  14,143
  15,682
  17,297
  18,986
  20,749
  22,588
  24,502
  26,493
  28,563
  30,715
  32,950
  35,274
  37,689
  40,199
  42,810
  45,527
  48,355
  51,300
  54,368
  57,567
  60,902
  64,383
  68,017
  71,812
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
  0.665
Average production assets, $m
  1,101
  1,278
  1,469
  1,674
  1,893
  2,125
  2,370
  2,628
  2,899
  3,182
  3,477
  3,785
  4,106
  4,440
  4,787
  5,147
  5,522
  5,911
  6,316
  6,737
  7,174
  7,629
  8,103
  8,597
  9,111
  9,647
  10,206
  10,789
  11,398
  12,034
Working capital, $m
  529
  613
  705
  804
  909
  1,020
  1,138
  1,262
  1,392
  1,528
  1,670
  1,818
  1,972
  2,132
  2,298
  2,471
  2,651
  2,838
  3,033
  3,235
  3,445
  3,663
  3,891
  4,128
  4,375
  4,632
  4,901
  5,181
  5,473
  5,778
Total debt, $m
  198
  418
  655
  910
  1,181
  1,470
  1,774
  2,094
  2,430
  2,781
  3,148
  3,530
  3,928
  4,343
  4,773
  5,221
  5,686
  6,169
  6,671
  7,194
  7,737
  8,302
  8,890
  9,502
  10,141
  10,806
  11,500
  12,224
  12,980
  13,769
Total liabilities, $m
  1,366
  1,586
  1,823
  2,078
  2,349
  2,637
  2,942
  3,262
  3,598
  3,949
  4,316
  4,698
  5,096
  5,511
  5,941
  6,389
  6,854
  7,337
  7,839
  8,361
  8,905
  9,470
  10,058
  10,670
  11,309
  11,974
  12,668
  13,392
  14,147
  14,937
Total equity, $m
  5,202
  6,039
  6,942
  7,912
  8,946
  10,043
  11,201
  12,420
  13,699
  15,037
  16,433
  17,889
  19,405
  20,982
  22,622
  24,326
  26,097
  27,937
  29,849
  31,838
  33,906
  36,057
  38,297
  40,629
  43,059
  45,593
  48,235
  50,991
  53,869
  56,875
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,568
  7,625
  8,765
  9,990
  11,295
  12,680
  14,143
  15,682
  17,297
  18,986
  20,749
  22,587
  24,501
  26,493
  28,563
  30,715
  32,951
  35,274
  37,688
  40,199
  42,811
  45,527
  48,355
  51,299
  54,368
  57,567
  60,903
  64,383
  68,016
  71,812
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.040
  0.070
  0.090
  0.120
  0.130
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,091
  1,268
  1,460
  1,665
  1,883
  2,115
  2,360
  2,618
  2,888
  3,170
  3,525
  3,832
  4,152
  4,485
  4,832
  5,192
  5,566
  5,954
  6,358
  6,778
  7,215
  7,669
  8,142
  8,635
  9,148
  9,683
  10,241
  10,824
  11,431
  12,066
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  197
  216
  236
  257
  280
  305
  331
  358
  386
  416
  366
  398
  432
  467
  504
  542
  581
  622
  665
  709
  755
  803
  853
  905
  959
  1,015
  1,074
  1,136
  1,200
  1,267
Funds from operations, $m
  1,288
  1,484
  1,695
  1,922
  2,164
  2,420
  2,691
  2,975
  3,274
  3,586
  3,891
  4,231
  4,585
  4,953
  5,336
  5,733
  6,147
  6,576
  7,023
  7,487
  7,970
  8,472
  8,995
  9,540
  10,107
  10,699
  11,316
  11,959
  12,631
  13,333
Change in working capital, $m
  78
  85
  92
  99
  105
  111
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  173
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  280
  292
  305
Cash from operations, $m
  1,210
  1,399
  1,604
  1,823
  2,059
  2,309
  2,573
  2,852
  3,144
  3,451
  3,749
  4,083
  4,431
  4,793
  5,169
  5,560
  5,967
  6,389
  6,829
  7,285
  7,760
  8,254
  8,768
  9,303
  9,860
  10,441
  11,047
  11,679
  12,339
  13,028
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -99
  -116
  -134
  -155
  -176
  -199
  -224
  -249
  -277
  -305
  -335
  -366
  -398
  -432
  -467
  -504
  -542
  -581
  -622
  -665
  -709
  -755
  -803
  -853
  -905
  -959
  -1,015
  -1,074
  -1,136
  -1,200
New CAPEX, $m
  -164
  -177
  -191
  -205
  -219
  -232
  -245
  -258
  -271
  -283
  -296
  -308
  -321
  -334
  -347
  -361
  -375
  -389
  -405
  -421
  -438
  -455
  -474
  -494
  -514
  -536
  -559
  -583
  -609
  -636
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -263
  -293
  -325
  -360
  -395
  -431
  -469
  -507
  -548
  -588
  -631
  -674
  -719
  -766
  -814
  -865
  -917
  -970
  -1,027
  -1,086
  -1,147
  -1,210
  -1,277
  -1,347
  -1,419
  -1,495
  -1,574
  -1,657
  -1,745
  -1,836
Free cash flow, $m
  948
  1,106
  1,278
  1,464
  1,664
  1,877
  2,104
  2,344
  2,597
  2,862
  3,118
  3,409
  3,711
  4,027
  4,355
  4,696
  5,050
  5,419
  5,802
  6,200
  6,613
  7,043
  7,491
  7,956
  8,441
  8,946
  9,473
  10,022
  10,594
  11,192
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  198
  220
  237
  255
  272
  288
  304
  320
  336
  351
  367
  382
  398
  414
  431
  448
  465
  483
  502
  522
  543
  565
  588
  613
  638
  665
  694
  724
  756
  789
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  198
  220
  237
  255
  272
  288
  304
  320
  336
  351
  367
  382
  398
  414
  431
  448
  465
  483
  502
  522
  543
  565
  588
  613
  638
  665
  694
  724
  756
  789
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,147
  1,326
  1,515
  1,718
  1,935
  2,165
  2,408
  2,664
  2,933
  3,214
  3,485
  3,791
  4,109
  4,441
  4,785
  5,143
  5,515
  5,902
  6,304
  6,722
  7,156
  7,608
  8,079
  8,569
  9,079
  9,612
  10,166
  10,746
  11,350
  11,981
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -766
  -836
  -904
  -970
  -1,034
  -1,097
  -1,159
  -1,219
  -1,279
  -1,338
  -1,397
  -1,456
  -1,516
  -1,577
  -1,640
  -1,704
  -1,771
  -1,840
  -1,913
  -1,988
  -2,068
  -2,152
  -2,240
  -2,332
  -2,430
  -2,533
  -2,642
  -2,757
  -2,878
  -3,006
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  2,243
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  2,623
  490
  612
  749
  901
  1,068
  1,250
  1,445
  1,654
  1,876
  2,088
  2,335
  2,594
  2,864
  3,146
  3,439
  3,745
  4,062
  4,391
  4,733
  5,088
  5,457
  5,839
  6,237
  6,649
  7,078
  7,525
  7,989
  8,472
  8,976
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  2,515
  448
  532
  617
  698
  775
  844
  903
  950
  983
  992
  996
  986
  961
  924
  874
  815
  748
  676
  601
  526
  453
  383
  318
  259
  207
  161
  124
  92
  68
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (Intuitive) designs, manufactures and markets da Vinci Surgical Systems, and related instruments and accessories. The Company's da Vinci Surgical System consists of a surgeon's console, a patient-side cart and a vision system. The da Vinci Surgical System translates a surgeon's hand movements, which are performed on instrument controls at a console, into corresponding micro-movements of instruments positioned inside the patient through small incisions or ports. The da Vinci Surgical System provides its operating surgeons with control, range of motion, tissue manipulation capability and three-dimensional (3-D), high-definition (HD) vision. Intuitive has four generations of da Vinci Surgical System: the da Vinci Xi Surgical System, the da Vinci Si Surgical System, the da Vinci S Surgical System and the standard da Vinci Surgical System. The Company's instruments and accessories include EndoWrist Instruments and da Vinci Single-Site.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 83.2
Price to Sales 22.7
Price to Book 10.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 58.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 61.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Return On Total Capital 14.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Return On Equity 14.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.5%
EBITDA Margin 39.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.8%
Operating Margin 34.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 36.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Net Profit Margin 27.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Effective Tax Rate 25%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

ISRG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ISRG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3724 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Intuitive Surgical, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Intuitive Surgical, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ISRG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ISRG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Intuitive Surgical, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Intuitive Surgical, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ISRG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 66.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ISRG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Intuitive Surgical, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Intuitive Surgical, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ISRG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ISRG are equal to 25.2%.

Life of production assets of 9.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Intuitive Surgical, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ISRG is equal to 12.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $6678.8 million for Intuitive Surgical, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 115.369 million for Intuitive Surgical, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Intuitive Surgical, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $60.7 billion.

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