Intrinsic value of Intuitive Surgical - ISRG

Previous Close

$529.00

  Intrinsic Value

$151.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-71%

Previous close

$529.00

 
Intrinsic value

$151.57

 
Up/down potential

-71%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ISRG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 59.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.70
  14.63
  13.67
  12.80
  12.02
  11.32
  10.69
  10.12
  9.61
  9.15
  8.73
  8.36
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.61
  6.45
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
Revenue, $m
  3,620
  4,150
  4,717
  5,321
  5,960
  6,635
  7,344
  8,087
  8,864
  9,675
  10,519
  11,399
  12,313
  13,263
  14,251
  15,278
  16,345
  17,454
  18,607
  19,806
  21,054
  22,353
  23,706
  25,116
  26,586
  28,120
  29,720
  31,391
  33,137
  34,960
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,347
  2,686
  3,048
  3,433
  3,842
  4,272
  4,725
  5,199
  5,695
  6,213
  6,716
  7,278
  7,861
  8,468
  9,099
  9,754
  10,435
  11,143
  11,880
  12,645
  13,442
  14,271
  15,135
  16,036
  16,974
  17,954
  18,975
  20,042
  21,156
  22,321
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,347
  2,686
  3,048
  3,433
  3,842
  4,272
  4,725
  5,199
  5,695
  6,213
  6,716
  7,278
  7,861
  8,468
  9,099
  9,754
  10,435
  11,143
  11,880
  12,645
  13,442
  14,271
  15,135
  16,036
  16,974
  17,954
  18,975
  20,042
  21,156
  22,321
Operating income, $m
  1,273
  1,464
  1,669
  1,888
  2,119
  2,363
  2,619
  2,888
  3,169
  3,462
  3,803
  4,121
  4,452
  4,795
  5,152
  5,524
  5,909
  6,310
  6,727
  7,161
  7,612
  8,081
  8,571
  9,080
  9,612
  10,166
  10,745
  11,349
  11,980
  12,639
EBITDA, $m
  1,412
  1,618
  1,839
  2,075
  2,324
  2,587
  2,864
  3,153
  3,456
  3,773
  4,102
  4,445
  4,801
  5,172
  5,557
  5,957
  6,373
  6,806
  7,255
  7,723
  8,210
  8,716
  9,244
  9,794
  10,367
  10,965
  11,589
  12,241
  12,921
  13,632
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  9
  18
  28
  39
  50
  62
  75
  88
  102
  116
  131
  147
  163
  180
  198
  216
  235
  255
  275
  297
  319
  342
  366
  391
  417
  445
  473
  503
  534
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,273
  1,456
  1,651
  1,859
  2,080
  2,312
  2,557
  2,813
  3,080
  3,360
  3,687
  3,990
  4,305
  4,632
  4,972
  5,326
  5,693
  6,075
  6,472
  6,885
  7,315
  7,763
  8,229
  8,714
  9,221
  9,749
  10,300
  10,876
  11,477
  12,106
Tax expense, $m
  344
  393
  446
  502
  562
  624
  690
  759
  832
  907
  995
  1,077
  1,162
  1,251
  1,342
  1,438
  1,537
  1,640
  1,747
  1,859
  1,975
  2,096
  2,222
  2,353
  2,490
  2,632
  2,781
  2,937
  3,099
  3,269
Net income, $m
  929
  1,063
  1,205
  1,357
  1,518
  1,688
  1,866
  2,053
  2,249
  2,453
  2,691
  2,912
  3,142
  3,381
  3,630
  3,888
  4,156
  4,435
  4,725
  5,026
  5,340
  5,667
  6,007
  6,362
  6,731
  7,117
  7,519
  7,940
  8,378
  8,837

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,209
  5,971
  6,787
  7,656
  8,576
  9,547
  10,567
  11,636
  12,754
  13,920
  15,136
  16,401
  17,716
  19,084
  20,505
  21,982
  23,517
  25,113
  26,772
  28,498
  30,293
  32,162
  34,109
  36,138
  38,254
  40,460
  42,763
  45,167
  47,679
  50,303
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,209
  5,971
  6,787
  7,656
  8,576
  9,547
  10,567
  11,636
  12,754
  13,920
  15,136
  16,401
  17,716
  19,084
  20,505
  21,982
  23,517
  25,113
  26,772
  28,498
  30,293
  32,162
  34,109
  36,138
  38,254
  40,460
  42,763
  45,167
  47,679
  50,303
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
  0.695
Average production assets, $m
  1,028
  1,179
  1,340
  1,511
  1,693
  1,884
  2,086
  2,297
  2,517
  2,748
  2,987
  3,237
  3,497
  3,767
  4,047
  4,339
  4,642
  4,957
  5,284
  5,625
  5,979
  6,348
  6,733
  7,133
  7,551
  7,986
  8,441
  8,915
  9,411
  9,929
Working capital, $m
  185
  212
  241
  271
  304
  338
  375
  412
  452
  493
  536
  581
  628
  676
  727
  779
  834
  890
  949
  1,010
  1,074
  1,140
  1,209
  1,281
  1,356
  1,434
  1,516
  1,601
  1,690
  1,783
Total debt, $m
  160
  334
  521
  720
  931
  1,153
  1,387
  1,632
  1,888
  2,155
  2,433
  2,723
  3,024
  3,337
  3,663
  4,001
  4,352
  4,718
  5,098
  5,493
  5,904
  6,332
  6,778
  7,243
  7,727
  8,232
  8,760
  9,310
  9,885
  10,486
Total liabilities, $m
  1,193
  1,367
  1,554
  1,753
  1,964
  2,186
  2,420
  2,665
  2,921
  3,188
  3,466
  3,756
  4,057
  4,370
  4,696
  5,034
  5,385
  5,751
  6,131
  6,526
  6,937
  7,365
  7,811
  8,276
  8,760
  9,265
  9,793
  10,343
  10,918
  11,519
Total equity, $m
  4,016
  4,604
  5,233
  5,903
  6,612
  7,361
  8,147
  8,972
  9,833
  10,733
  11,670
  12,645
  13,659
  14,714
  15,810
  16,948
  18,132
  19,362
  20,641
  21,972
  23,356
  24,797
  26,298
  27,863
  29,494
  31,195
  32,970
  34,824
  36,760
  38,783
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,209
  5,971
  6,787
  7,656
  8,576
  9,547
  10,567
  11,637
  12,754
  13,921
  15,136
  16,401
  17,716
  19,084
  20,506
  21,982
  23,517
  25,113
  26,772
  28,498
  30,293
  32,162
  34,109
  36,139
  38,254
  40,460
  42,763
  45,167
  47,678
  50,302
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.040
  0.070
  0.100
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  929
  1,063
  1,205
  1,357
  1,518
  1,688
  1,866
  2,053
  2,249
  2,453
  2,691
  2,912
  3,142
  3,381
  3,630
  3,888
  4,156
  4,435
  4,725
  5,026
  5,340
  5,667
  6,007
  6,362
  6,731
  7,117
  7,519
  7,940
  8,378
  8,837
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  139
  154
  170
  187
  205
  225
  245
  266
  288
  311
  299
  324
  350
  377
  405
  434
  464
  496
  528
  562
  598
  635
  673
  713
  755
  799
  844
  892
  941
  993
Funds from operations, $m
  1,068
  1,217
  1,375
  1,545
  1,724
  1,913
  2,111
  2,319
  2,537
  2,763
  2,990
  3,236
  3,492
  3,758
  4,034
  4,322
  4,620
  4,930
  5,253
  5,589
  5,938
  6,302
  6,680
  7,075
  7,486
  7,915
  8,363
  8,831
  9,320
  9,830
Change in working capital, $m
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
Cash from operations, $m
  1,043
  1,190
  1,347
  1,514
  1,691
  1,878
  2,075
  2,281
  2,497
  2,722
  2,947
  3,191
  3,445
  3,710
  3,984
  4,269
  4,566
  4,874
  5,194
  5,528
  5,874
  6,235
  6,611
  7,003
  7,411
  7,837
  8,282
  8,746
  9,231
  9,737
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -89
  -103
  -118
  -134
  -151
  -169
  -188
  -209
  -230
  -252
  -275
  -299
  -324
  -350
  -377
  -405
  -434
  -464
  -496
  -528
  -562
  -598
  -635
  -673
  -713
  -755
  -799
  -844
  -892
  -941
New CAPEX, $m
  -140
  -150
  -161
  -171
  -182
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -230
  -240
  -250
  -260
  -270
  -281
  -292
  -303
  -315
  -327
  -341
  -354
  -369
  -384
  -400
  -418
  -436
  -455
  -475
  -496
  -518
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -229
  -253
  -279
  -305
  -333
  -361
  -389
  -420
  -451
  -482
  -515
  -549
  -584
  -620
  -658
  -697
  -737
  -779
  -823
  -869
  -916
  -967
  -1,019
  -1,073
  -1,131
  -1,191
  -1,254
  -1,319
  -1,388
  -1,459
Free cash flow, $m
  814
  936
  1,068
  1,208
  1,358
  1,517
  1,685
  1,862
  2,047
  2,240
  2,432
  2,643
  2,862
  3,090
  3,327
  3,573
  3,829
  4,095
  4,371
  4,659
  4,957
  5,268
  5,592
  5,929
  6,280
  6,647
  7,029
  7,427
  7,843
  8,278
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  160
  175
  187
  199
  211
  222
  234
  245
  256
  267
  278
  290
  301
  313
  325
  338
  352
  365
  380
  395
  411
  428
  446
  465
  484
  505
  527
  551
  575
  601
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  160
  175
  187
  199
  211
  222
  234
  245
  256
  267
  278
  290
  301
  313
  325
  338
  352
  365
  380
  395
  411
  428
  446
  465
  484
  505
  527
  551
  575
  601
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  974
  1,111
  1,254
  1,407
  1,569
  1,740
  1,919
  2,106
  2,303
  2,507
  2,711
  2,933
  3,163
  3,403
  3,652
  3,911
  4,180
  4,460
  4,751
  5,054
  5,369
  5,696
  6,038
  6,394
  6,765
  7,152
  7,556
  7,978
  8,418
  8,879
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -548
  -588
  -629
  -670
  -710
  -748
  -787
  -824
  -862
  -899
  -937
  -975
  -1,014
  -1,054
  -1,096
  -1,139
  -1,183
  -1,230
  -1,279
  -1,330
  -1,384
  -1,441
  -1,501
  -1,564
  -1,631
  -1,701
  -1,775
  -1,854
  -1,936
  -2,023
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1,257
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  210
  243
  278
  316
  356
  399
  445
  492
  542
  594
  648
  705
  764
  825
  889
  955
  1,024
  1,095
  1,169
  1,247
  1,327
  1,411
  1,498
  1,588
  1,683
  1,781
  1,884
  1,991
  2,103
  2,220
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,683
  523
  625
  737
  860
  991
  1,132
  1,282
  1,441
  1,608
  1,774
  1,957
  2,149
  2,349
  2,556
  2,772
  2,997
  3,230
  3,472
  3,723
  3,984
  4,255
  4,537
  4,829
  5,134
  5,451
  5,781
  6,124
  6,482
  6,856
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,613
  479
  544
  607
  666
  719
  765
  801
  828
  843
  842
  835
  817
  788
  751
  705
  652
  595
  535
  473
  412
  353
  297
  246
  200
  159
  124
  95
  71
  52
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (Intuitive) designs, manufactures and markets da Vinci Surgical Systems, and related instruments and accessories. The Company's da Vinci Surgical System consists of a surgeon's console, a patient-side cart and a vision system. The da Vinci Surgical System translates a surgeon's hand movements, which are performed on instrument controls at a console, into corresponding micro-movements of instruments positioned inside the patient through small incisions or ports. The da Vinci Surgical System provides its operating surgeons with control, range of motion, tissue manipulation capability and three-dimensional (3-D), high-definition (HD) vision. Intuitive has four generations of da Vinci Surgical System: the da Vinci Xi Surgical System, the da Vinci Si Surgical System, the da Vinci S Surgical System and the standard da Vinci Surgical System. The Company's instruments and accessories include EndoWrist Instruments and da Vinci Single-Site.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 83.7
Price to Sales 22.8
Price to Book 10.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 59
Price to Free Cash Flow 62.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Return On Total Capital 14.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Return On Equity 14.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.5%
EBITDA Margin 39.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.8%
Operating Margin 34.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 36.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Net Profit Margin 27.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Effective Tax Rate 25%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

ISRG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ISRG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3129 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Intuitive Surgical. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Intuitive Surgical. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ISRG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ISRG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Intuitive Surgical, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Intuitive Surgical.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ISRG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 65%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ISRG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Intuitive Surgical.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Intuitive Surgical. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ISRG stock is equal to 6.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ISRG are equal to 28.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Intuitive Surgical operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ISRG is equal to 5.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4725 million for Intuitive Surgical - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 112 million for Intuitive Surgical is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Intuitive Surgical at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $59.2 billion.

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