Intrinsic value of Gartner - IT

Previous Close

$144.78

  Intrinsic Value

$154.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+7%

Previous close

$144.78

 
Intrinsic value

$154.30

 
Up/down potential

+7%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of IT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 13.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.70
  17.33
  16.10
  14.99
  13.99
  13.09
  12.28
  11.55
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.28
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
Revenue, $m
  3,931
  4,612
  5,354
  6,157
  7,018
  7,937
  8,911
  9,941
  11,024
  12,160
  13,349
  14,591
  15,885
  17,232
  18,634
  20,091
  21,606
  23,180
  24,816
  26,516
  28,283
  30,121
  32,034
  34,024
  36,097
  38,257
  40,509
  42,857
  45,307
  47,865
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,359
  3,867
  4,421
  5,020
  5,662
  6,347
  7,074
  7,842
  8,649
  9,497
  9,956
  10,881
  11,847
  12,851
  13,897
  14,984
  16,113
  17,287
  18,507
  19,775
  21,093
  22,464
  23,890
  25,374
  26,920
  28,531
  30,210
  31,961
  33,789
  35,696
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,359
  3,867
  4,421
  5,020
  5,662
  6,347
  7,074
  7,842
  8,649
  9,497
  9,956
  10,881
  11,847
  12,851
  13,897
  14,984
  16,113
  17,287
  18,507
  19,775
  21,093
  22,464
  23,890
  25,374
  26,920
  28,531
  30,210
  31,961
  33,789
  35,696
Operating income, $m
  571
  745
  933
  1,137
  1,356
  1,590
  1,838
  2,099
  2,375
  2,664
  3,394
  3,709
  4,038
  4,381
  4,737
  5,108
  5,493
  5,893
  6,309
  6,741
  7,190
  7,658
  8,144
  8,650
  9,177
  9,726
  10,298
  10,895
  11,518
  12,168
EBITDA, $m
  1,151
  1,350
  1,568
  1,803
  2,055
  2,324
  2,609
  2,911
  3,228
  3,561
  3,909
  4,272
  4,651
  5,046
  5,456
  5,883
  6,326
  6,787
  7,266
  7,764
  8,282
  8,820
  9,380
  9,963
  10,570
  11,202
  11,861
  12,549
  13,266
  14,015
Interest expense (income), $m
  23
  210
  285
  368
  458
  556
  661
  772
  891
  1,016
  1,148
  1,286
  1,431
  1,582
  1,739
  1,903
  2,074
  2,251
  2,435
  2,627
  2,826
  3,033
  3,248
  3,472
  3,704
  3,946
  4,199
  4,461
  4,735
  5,021
  5,319
Earnings before tax, $m
  362
  460
  565
  679
  800
  929
  1,065
  1,208
  1,359
  1,516
  2,108
  2,278
  2,456
  2,642
  2,834
  3,034
  3,242
  3,457
  3,682
  3,915
  4,157
  4,410
  4,672
  4,946
  5,230
  5,527
  5,837
  6,160
  6,497
  6,849
Tax expense, $m
  98
  124
  153
  183
  216
  251
  288
  326
  367
  409
  569
  615
  663
  713
  765
  819
  875
  934
  994
  1,057
  1,123
  1,191
  1,262
  1,335
  1,412
  1,492
  1,576
  1,663
  1,754
  1,849
Net income, $m
  264
  336
  413
  496
  584
  678
  778
  882
  992
  1,106
  1,538
  1,663
  1,793
  1,928
  2,069
  2,215
  2,366
  2,524
  2,688
  2,858
  3,035
  3,219
  3,411
  3,610
  3,818
  4,035
  4,261
  4,497
  4,743
  5,000

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,639
  10,136
  11,768
  13,531
  15,424
  17,443
  19,585
  21,848
  24,229
  26,726
  29,339
  32,068
  34,912
  37,873
  40,954
  44,157
  47,486
  50,945
  54,540
  58,276
  62,160
  66,200
  70,403
  74,778
  79,334
  84,081
  89,030
  94,191
  99,575
  105,197
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,639
  10,136
  11,768
  13,531
  15,424
  17,443
  19,585
  21,848
  24,229
  26,726
  29,339
  32,068
  34,912
  37,873
  40,954
  44,157
  47,486
  50,945
  54,540
  58,276
  62,160
  66,200
  70,403
  74,778
  79,334
  84,081
  89,030
  94,191
  99,575
  105,197
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
Average production assets, $m
  1,714
  2,011
  2,334
  2,684
  3,060
  3,460
  3,885
  4,334
  4,807
  5,302
  5,820
  6,362
  6,926
  7,513
  8,124
  8,760
  9,420
  10,106
  10,820
  11,561
  12,331
  13,133
  13,967
  14,835
  15,738
  16,680
  17,662
  18,686
  19,754
  20,869
Working capital, $m
  -468
  -549
  -637
  -733
  -835
  -944
  -1,060
  -1,183
  -1,312
  -1,447
  -1,589
  -1,736
  -1,890
  -2,051
  -2,217
  -2,391
  -2,571
  -2,758
  -2,953
  -3,155
  -3,366
  -3,584
  -3,812
  -4,049
  -4,296
  -4,553
  -4,821
  -5,100
  -5,392
  -5,696
Total debt, $m
  4,452
  5,747
  7,158
  8,684
  10,321
  12,068
  13,921
  15,878
  17,937
  20,097
  22,358
  24,718
  27,178
  29,739
  32,404
  35,175
  38,054
  41,046
  44,156
  47,388
  50,748
  54,242
  57,878
  61,662
  65,603
  69,710
  73,990
  78,454
  83,112
  87,974
Total liabilities, $m
  7,473
  8,768
  10,179
  11,705
  13,342
  15,088
  16,941
  18,899
  20,958
  23,118
  25,379
  27,739
  30,199
  32,760
  35,425
  38,196
  41,075
  44,067
  47,177
  50,409
  53,769
  57,263
  60,899
  64,683
  68,624
  72,730
  77,011
  81,475
  86,133
  90,995
Total equity, $m
  1,166
  1,368
  1,589
  1,827
  2,082
  2,355
  2,644
  2,949
  3,271
  3,608
  3,961
  4,329
  4,713
  5,113
  5,529
  5,961
  6,411
  6,878
  7,363
  7,867
  8,392
  8,937
  9,504
  10,095
  10,710
  11,351
  12,019
  12,716
  13,443
  14,202
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,639
  10,136
  11,768
  13,532
  15,424
  17,443
  19,585
  21,848
  24,229
  26,726
  29,340
  32,068
  34,912
  37,873
  40,954
  44,157
  47,486
  50,945
  54,540
  58,276
  62,161
  66,200
  70,403
  74,778
  79,334
  84,081
  89,030
  94,191
  99,576
  105,197
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.820
  4.200
  4.510
  4.750
  4.960
  5.120
  5.260
  5.380
  5.480
  5.570
  5.640
  5.710
  5.770
  5.820
  5.860
  5.900
  5.940
  5.970
  6.000
  6.020
  6.050
  6.070
  6.090
  6.110
  6.130
  6.140
  6.160
  6.170
  6.180
  6.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  264
  336
  413
  496
  584
  678
  778
  882
  992
  1,106
  1,538
  1,663
  1,793
  1,928
  2,069
  2,215
  2,366
  2,524
  2,688
  2,858
  3,035
  3,219
  3,411
  3,610
  3,818
  4,035
  4,261
  4,497
  4,743
  5,000
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  580
  606
  635
  665
  699
  734
  772
  811
  853
  897
  515
  563
  613
  665
  719
  775
  834
  894
  957
  1,023
  1,091
  1,162
  1,236
  1,313
  1,393
  1,476
  1,563
  1,654
  1,748
  1,847
Funds from operations, $m
  844
  941
  1,047
  1,161
  1,283
  1,412
  1,549
  1,694
  1,845
  2,004
  2,054
  2,226
  2,406
  2,593
  2,788
  2,990
  3,200
  3,418
  3,645
  3,881
  4,126
  4,381
  4,647
  4,923
  5,211
  5,511
  5,824
  6,150
  6,491
  6,847
Change in working capital, $m
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -195
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -247
  -257
  -268
  -279
  -292
  -304
Cash from operations, $m
  917
  1,022
  1,136
  1,257
  1,386
  1,522
  1,665
  1,816
  1,974
  2,139
  2,195
  2,374
  2,560
  2,754
  2,955
  3,163
  3,380
  3,606
  3,840
  4,083
  4,337
  4,600
  4,874
  5,160
  5,458
  5,768
  6,092
  6,430
  6,783
  7,151
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -128
  -152
  -178
  -207
  -238
  -271
  -306
  -344
  -384
  -425
  -469
  -515
  -563
  -613
  -665
  -719
  -775
  -834
  -894
  -957
  -1,023
  -1,091
  -1,162
  -1,236
  -1,313
  -1,393
  -1,476
  -1,563
  -1,654
  -1,748
New CAPEX, $m
  -269
  -297
  -324
  -350
  -376
  -401
  -425
  -449
  -472
  -495
  -518
  -541
  -564
  -587
  -611
  -635
  -660
  -686
  -713
  -741
  -771
  -801
  -834
  -868
  -904
  -942
  -982
  -1,024
  -1,068
  -1,115
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -397
  -449
  -502
  -557
  -614
  -672
  -731
  -793
  -856
  -920
  -987
  -1,056
  -1,127
  -1,200
  -1,276
  -1,354
  -1,435
  -1,520
  -1,607
  -1,698
  -1,794
  -1,892
  -1,996
  -2,104
  -2,217
  -2,335
  -2,458
  -2,587
  -2,722
  -2,863
Free cash flow, $m
  521
  574
  634
  700
  772
  851
  934
  1,023
  1,118
  1,218
  1,207
  1,318
  1,433
  1,553
  1,679
  1,809
  1,945
  2,086
  2,232
  2,385
  2,543
  2,707
  2,878
  3,056
  3,241
  3,434
  3,634
  3,843
  4,061
  4,288
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1,173
  1,295
  1,411
  1,526
  1,637
  1,746
  1,853
  1,957
  2,059
  2,160
  2,260
  2,360
  2,460
  2,562
  2,665
  2,770
  2,879
  2,992
  3,110
  3,232
  3,360
  3,494
  3,636
  3,784
  3,941
  4,106
  4,280
  4,464
  4,658
  4,862
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,173
  1,295
  1,411
  1,526
  1,637
  1,746
  1,853
  1,957
  2,059
  2,160
  2,260
  2,360
  2,460
  2,562
  2,665
  2,770
  2,879
  2,992
  3,110
  3,232
  3,360
  3,494
  3,636
  3,784
  3,941
  4,106
  4,280
  4,464
  4,658
  4,862
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,694
  1,869
  2,045
  2,226
  2,410
  2,597
  2,787
  2,981
  3,178
  3,378
  3,468
  3,678
  3,893
  4,115
  4,343
  4,579
  4,824
  5,078
  5,342
  5,617
  5,903
  6,202
  6,514
  6,840
  7,182
  7,540
  7,914
  8,307
  8,719
  9,150
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -183
  -202
  -220
  -238
  -256
  -273
  -289
  -305
  -321
  -337
  -353
  -368
  -384
  -400
  -416
  -432
  -449
  -467
  -485
  -504
  -524
  -545
  -567
  -591
  -615
  -641
  -668
  -697
  -727
  -759
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,511
  1,667
  1,825
  1,988
  2,154
  2,324
  2,498
  2,675
  2,856
  3,041
  3,115
  3,309
  3,509
  3,715
  3,927
  4,147
  4,375
  4,611
  4,857
  5,112
  5,379
  5,656
  5,947
  6,250
  6,567
  6,899
  7,246
  7,610
  7,992
  8,391
Discount rate, %
  10.00
  10.50
  11.03
  11.58
  12.16
  12.76
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.07
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.72
  32.25
  33.86
  35.56
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,374
  1,365
  1,334
  1,283
  1,214
  1,131
  1,036
  933
  826
  719
  592
  498
  410
  331
  261
  202
  152
  112
  81
  56
  38
  25
  16
  10
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Gartner, Inc. is an information technology research and advisory company. The Company works with clients to research, analyze and interpret the business of information technology (IT), supply chain and marketing within the context of their individual roles. It operates in three segments: Research, Consulting and Events. Research segment consists of subscription-based research products, access to research inquiry, peer networking services and membership programs. Consulting segment consists of consulting, measurement engagements and strategic advisory services. Events segment consists of various symposia, conferences and exhibitions. It provides insight through reports, briefings, tools, access to its analysts, peer networking services and membership programs that enable its clients to make decisions about their IT, supply chain and digital marketing initiatives. Its consultants provide fact-based consulting services to help clients use and manage IT to optimize business performance.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Gartner (IT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 61.7
Price to Sales 4.9
Price to Book 196.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 32.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 37.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 8.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 16
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 1088.5%
Total Debt to Equity 1137.7%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Total Capital 26.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.2%
Return On Equity -546.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 245.9%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 61.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61%
EBITDA Margin 15.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
Operating Margin 12.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Net Profit Margin 7.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Effective Tax Rate 32.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

IT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3311.494 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Gartner. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Gartner. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10%, whose default value for IT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Gartner, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Gartner.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.4% for Gartner.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Gartner. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IT are equal to 43.6%.

Life of production assets of 11.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Gartner operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IT is equal to -11.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $983.465 million for Gartner - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 90.818 million for Gartner is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Gartner at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $13.1 billion.

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