Intrinsic value of Iteris - ITI

Previous Close

$7.20

  Intrinsic Value

$0.19

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-97%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$7.20

 
Intrinsic value

$0.19

 
Up/down potential

-97%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ITI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  23.08
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.35
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.13
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
Revenue, $m
  96
  108
  121
  134
  148
  163
  178
  194
  211
  228
  246
  265
  284
  305
  326
  348
  370
  394
  419
  444
  471
  499
  528
  558
  590
  623
  657
  693
  731
  770
  812
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  112
  125
  139
  153
  169
  184
  201
  218
  236
  254
  272
  292
  313
  334
  357
  380
  404
  430
  456
  483
  512
  542
  573
  605
  639
  675
  712
  750
  791
  833
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  101
  112
  125
  139
  153
  169
  184
  201
  218
  236
  254
  272
  292
  313
  334
  357
  380
  404
  430
  456
  483
  512
  542
  573
  605
  639
  675
  712
  750
  791
  833
Operating income, $m
  -5
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
EBITDA, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Earnings before tax, $m
  -5
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -5
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  62
  49
  55
  61
  68
  75
  82
  89
  97
  105
  113
  121
  130
  140
  149
  159
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  270
  285
  301
  318
  335
  353
  372
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  44
  49
  55
  61
  68
  75
  82
  89
  97
  105
  113
  121
  130
  140
  149
  159
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  270
  285
  301
  318
  335
  353
  372
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.182
  2.204
  2.200
  2.197
  2.176
  2.173
  2.171
  2.180
  2.175
  2.171
  2.177
  2.190
  2.185
  2.179
  2.188
  2.189
  2.176
  2.177
  2.182
  2.176
  2.181
  2.179
  2.182
  2.180
  2.185
  2.186
  2.183
  2.179
  2.182
  2.181
  2.183
Average production assets, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Working capital, $m
  22
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
Total debt, $m
  0
  3
  6
  9
  12
  15
  19
  22
  26
  30
  34
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
  164
Total liabilities, $m
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  186
Total equity, $m
  40
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  186
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  62
  50
  56
  62
  68
  74
  82
  88
  96
  104
  112
  122
  130
  140
  150
  160
  170
  180
  192
  204
  216
  228
  242
  256
  270
  286
  302
  318
  336
  354
  372
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.110
  0.200
  0.280
  0.350
  0.410
  0.460
  0.510
  0.540
  0.580
  0.610
  0.640
  0.660
  0.680
  0.710
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -5
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Funds from operations, $m
  7
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Free cash flow, $m
  2
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  42
  43
  45
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  3
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  17
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  16
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.8
  90.0
  85.6
  81.6
  77.8
  74.4
  71.1
  68.1
  65.2
  62.5
  60.2
  58.1
  56.0
  54.0
  52.1
  50.3
  48.5
  46.8
  45.2
  43.6
  42.1
  40.7
  39.3
  37.9
  36.7
  35.4
  34.2
  33.0
  31.9
  30.8

Iteris, Inc. is a provider of information solutions for both the traffic management and global agribusiness markets. The Company operates through three segments: Roadway Sensors, Transportation Systems and Performance Analytics. The Roadway Sensors segment provides various vehicle detection and information systems and products for traffic intersection control, incident detection and roadway traffic data collection applications. The Transportation Systems segment includes transportation engineering and consulting services, and the development of transportation management and traveler information systems for the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) industry. The Performance Analytics segment includes iPeMS, its specialized transportation performance measurement and traffic analytics solutions, as well as ClearPath Weather, its road-maintenance applications, and ClearAg, its precision agriculture solutions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Iteris (ITI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -46.8
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 5.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 78
Price to Free Cash Flow 233.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 23.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.3%
Return On Total Capital -12%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.7%
Return On Equity -12%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.7%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.1%
EBITDA Margin -3.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.5%
Operating Margin -5.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.9%
Net Profit Margin -5.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -94.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

ITI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ITI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $96 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Iteris. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Iteris. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ITI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ITI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Iteris, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Iteris.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ITI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 104.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ITI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Iteris.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Iteris. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ITI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ITI are equal to 1.6%.

Life of production assets of 8.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Iteris operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ITI is equal to 4.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $40 million for Iteris - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.566 million for Iteris is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Iteris at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Iteris, Inc. : October 16, 2017   [Oct-16-17 09:54AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Iteris, Inc. : October 4, 2017   [Oct-04-17 10:48AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Iteris, Inc. : September 6, 2017   [Sep-05-17 09:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Iteris Expands ClearAg Spray Advisor Capabilities   [Aug-30-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Iteris reports 1Q loss   [Aug-07-17 11:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Iteris Added to Russell 2000® Index   [Jun-26-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Iteris, Inc. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 03:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Iteris reports 4Q loss   [Jun-08-17 04:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Iteris and Syngenta Partner to Provide ClearAg in Italy   [May-23-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Iteris, Inc. : May 18, 2017   [May-18-17 01:48PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Iteris Upgrades Digital Farming Mobile Apps   [Mar-14-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Scott Deeter Joins Iteris Board of Directors   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Company Profile for Iteris, Inc.   [10:40AM  Business Wire]
▶ Iteris reports 3Q loss   [Feb-09-17 05:25PM  AP]
▶ Iteris Appoints Joe Boissy as Chief Marketing Officer   [Feb-01-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ QBE NAU Crop Insurance Selects Iteris ClearAg   [Jan-05-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ GeoAgro to Deploy Iteris ClearAg on Two Continents   [Dec-15-16 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Iteris posts 1Q loss   [Aug-04-16 06:03PM  AP]
▶ Iteris (ITI) Stock Soaring on Preliminary Q1 Revenue   [Jul-15-16 02:16PM  at TheStreet]
Financial statements of ITI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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