Intrinsic value of Itron - ITRI

Previous Close

$53.99

  Intrinsic Value

$83.07

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+54%

Previous close

$53.99

 
Intrinsic value

$83.07

 
Up/down potential

+54%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ITRI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.50
  15.35
  14.32
  13.38
  12.55
  11.79
  11.11
  10.50
  9.95
  9.46
  9.01
  8.61
  8.25
  7.92
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
Revenue, $m
  2,351
  2,712
  3,100
  3,515
  3,956
  4,423
  4,914
  5,430
  5,971
  6,535
  7,124
  7,737
  8,375
  9,039
  9,729
  10,445
  11,190
  11,964
  12,769
  13,606
  14,476
  15,382
  16,326
  17,308
  18,333
  19,401
  20,515
  21,678
  22,892
  24,161
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,228
  2,560
  2,917
  3,298
  3,704
  4,133
  4,585
  5,059
  5,556
  6,076
  6,552
  7,116
  7,703
  8,313
  8,948
  9,607
  10,292
  11,004
  11,744
  12,514
  13,315
  14,148
  15,016
  15,919
  16,861
  17,844
  18,868
  19,938
  21,055
  22,222
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,228
  2,560
  2,917
  3,298
  3,704
  4,133
  4,585
  5,059
  5,556
  6,076
  6,552
  7,116
  7,703
  8,313
  8,948
  9,607
  10,292
  11,004
  11,744
  12,514
  13,315
  14,148
  15,016
  15,919
  16,861
  17,844
  18,868
  19,938
  21,055
  22,222
Operating income, $m
  124
  153
  184
  217
  252
  290
  329
  371
  414
  459
  572
  621
  672
  725
  781
  838
  898
  960
  1,025
  1,092
  1,162
  1,235
  1,310
  1,389
  1,471
  1,557
  1,646
  1,740
  1,837
  1,939
EBITDA, $m
  234
  270
  309
  350
  394
  441
  490
  541
  595
  651
  710
  771
  835
  901
  970
  1,041
  1,116
  1,193
  1,273
  1,356
  1,443
  1,533
  1,627
  1,725
  1,828
  1,934
  2,045
  2,161
  2,282
  2,409
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  33
  45
  58
  71
  86
  102
  118
  136
  154
  173
  193
  214
  235
  258
  281
  306
  331
  357
  385
  413
  443
  473
  506
  539
  574
  610
  648
  687
  728
  771
Earnings before tax, $m
  90
  108
  126
  146
  166
  188
  211
  235
  260
  287
  379
  407
  437
  468
  499
  533
  567
  603
  640
  679
  719
  761
  805
  850
  898
  947
  999
  1,053
  1,109
  1,168
Tax expense, $m
  24
  29
  34
  39
  45
  51
  57
  63
  70
  77
  102
  110
  118
  126
  135
  144
  153
  163
  173
  183
  194
  205
  217
  230
  242
  256
  270
  284
  299
  315
Net income, $m
  66
  79
  92
  106
  121
  137
  154
  172
  190
  209
  277
  297
  319
  341
  365
  389
  414
  440
  467
  496
  525
  556
  587
  621
  655
  691
  729
  769
  810
  853

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,454
  2,831
  3,236
  3,669
  4,130
  4,617
  5,130
  5,668
  6,232
  6,822
  7,436
  8,076
  8,742
  9,435
  10,155
  10,903
  11,681
  12,489
  13,329
  14,202
  15,111
  16,057
  17,042
  18,067
  19,136
  20,251
  21,414
  22,628
  23,896
  25,220
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,454
  2,831
  3,236
  3,669
  4,130
  4,617
  5,130
  5,668
  6,232
  6,822
  7,436
  8,076
  8,742
  9,435
  10,155
  10,903
  11,681
  12,489
  13,329
  14,202
  15,111
  16,057
  17,042
  18,067
  19,136
  20,251
  21,414
  22,628
  23,896
  25,220
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
  0.958
Average production assets, $m
  562
  648
  741
  840
  946
  1,057
  1,174
  1,298
  1,427
  1,562
  1,703
  1,849
  2,002
  2,160
  2,325
  2,496
  2,674
  2,859
  3,052
  3,252
  3,460
  3,676
  3,902
  4,137
  4,382
  4,637
  4,903
  5,181
  5,471
  5,774
Working capital, $m
  -146
  -168
  -192
  -218
  -245
  -274
  -305
  -337
  -370
  -405
  -442
  -480
  -519
  -560
  -603
  -648
  -694
  -742
  -792
  -844
  -898
  -954
  -1,012
  -1,073
  -1,137
  -1,203
  -1,272
  -1,344
  -1,419
  -1,498
Total debt, $m
  832
  1,069
  1,323
  1,594
  1,883
  2,188
  2,510
  2,848
  3,201
  3,571
  3,956
  4,357
  4,775
  5,209
  5,661
  6,130
  6,617
  7,124
  7,651
  8,198
  8,768
  9,361
  9,979
  10,622
  11,292
  11,991
  12,720
  13,481
  14,276
  15,106
Total liabilities, $m
  1,539
  1,775
  2,029
  2,301
  2,589
  2,895
  3,216
  3,554
  3,908
  4,277
  4,662
  5,064
  5,482
  5,916
  6,367
  6,836
  7,324
  7,831
  8,357
  8,905
  9,475
  10,068
  10,685
  11,328
  11,999
  12,697
  13,427
  14,188
  14,983
  15,813
Total equity, $m
  915
  1,056
  1,207
  1,369
  1,540
  1,722
  1,913
  2,114
  2,325
  2,544
  2,774
  3,012
  3,261
  3,519
  3,788
  4,067
  4,357
  4,658
  4,972
  5,298
  5,636
  5,989
  6,356
  6,739
  7,138
  7,554
  7,987
  8,440
  8,913
  9,407
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,454
  2,831
  3,236
  3,670
  4,129
  4,617
  5,129
  5,668
  6,233
  6,821
  7,436
  8,076
  8,743
  9,435
  10,155
  10,903
  11,681
  12,489
  13,329
  14,203
  15,111
  16,057
  17,041
  18,067
  19,137
  20,251
  21,414
  22,628
  23,896
  25,220
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.910
  1.010
  1.100
  1.160
  1.220
  1.270
  1.310
  1.350
  1.380
  1.400
  1.430
  1.450
  1.460
  1.480
  1.490
  1.510
  1.520
  1.530
  1.540
  1.550
  1.560
  1.560
  1.570
  1.580
  1.580
  1.590
  1.590
  1.600
  1.600
  1.610
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  66
  79
  92
  106
  121
  137
  154
  172
  190
  209
  277
  297
  319
  341
  365
  389
  414
  440
  467
  496
  525
  556
  587
  621
  655
  691
  729
  769
  810
  853
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  111
  118
  125
  133
  142
  151
  161
  171
  181
  192
  138
  150
  163
  176
  189
  203
  217
  232
  248
  264
  281
  299
  317
  336
  356
  377
  399
  421
  445
  469
Funds from operations, $m
  177
  196
  217
  240
  263
  288
  315
  342
  371
  401
  415
  448
  482
  517
  554
  592
  631
  673
  715
  760
  806
  854
  905
  957
  1,012
  1,068
  1,128
  1,190
  1,255
  1,322
Change in working capital, $m
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
Cash from operations, $m
  197
  219
  241
  265
  291
  317
  345
  374
  405
  436
  452
  486
  521
  558
  596
  636
  678
  721
  765
  812
  860
  911
  963
  1,018
  1,075
  1,135
  1,197
  1,262
  1,330
  1,401
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -39
  -46
  -53
  -60
  -68
  -77
  -86
  -95
  -106
  -116
  -127
  -138
  -150
  -163
  -176
  -189
  -203
  -217
  -232
  -248
  -264
  -281
  -299
  -317
  -336
  -356
  -377
  -399
  -421
  -445
New CAPEX, $m
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -165
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -217
  -225
  -235
  -245
  -255
  -266
  -278
  -290
  -303
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -118
  -132
  -146
  -159
  -173
  -188
  -203
  -218
  -235
  -251
  -268
  -285
  -303
  -322
  -341
  -360
  -381
  -402
  -424
  -448
  -472
  -498
  -524
  -552
  -581
  -611
  -643
  -677
  -711
  -748
Free cash flow, $m
  79
  87
  96
  106
  117
  129
  142
  155
  170
  185
  184
  201
  218
  237
  256
  276
  297
  318
  340
  364
  388
  413
  439
  466
  494
  523
  554
  585
  618
  653
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  219
  236
  254
  272
  289
  305
  322
  338
  354
  369
  385
  401
  418
  434
  451
  469
  488
  507
  527
  548
  570
  593
  617
  643
  670
  699
  729
  761
  795
  830
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  63
  62
  59
  55
  50
  44
  37
  29
  20
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  282
  298
  313
  327
  339
  349
  359
  367
  374
  380
  385
  401
  418
  434
  451
  469
  488
  507
  527
  548
  570
  593
  617
  643
  670
  699
  729
  761
  795
  830
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  361
  385
  409
  433
  456
  479
  501
  522
  544
  565
  569
  602
  636
  671
  707
  745
  784
  825
  867
  911
  958
  1,006
  1,056
  1,109
  1,164
  1,222
  1,283
  1,346
  1,413
  1,483
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -129
  -141
  -151
  -162
  -172
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -229
  -239
  -248
  -258
  -269
  -279
  -290
  -301
  -313
  -326
  -339
  -353
  -367
  -383
  -399
  -416
  -434
  -453
  -473
  -494
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  232
  244
  258
  271
  284
  297
  309
  322
  334
  346
  340
  363
  388
  413
  439
  466
  494
  523
  554
  586
  619
  653
  689
  726
  766
  806
  849
  894
  940
  989
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  222
  224
  225
  223
  220
  215
  209
  201
  192
  181
  161
  155
  147
  139
  129
  118
  108
  96
  85
  74
  64
  54
  45
  37
  30
  24
  18
  14
  10
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.1
  94.7
  92.8
  91.2
  90.0
  89.1
  88.4
  87.9
  87.5
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4
  87.4

Itron, Inc. (Itron) is a technology and service company. The Company provides solutions that measure, manage and analyze energy and water use. The Company operates through three segments: Electricity, Gas and Water. It provides a portfolio of products, solutions, software and services to electric, gas and water utility customers across the globe. It offers solutions that enable electric and natural gas utilities to build smart grids to manage assets. It offers a product portfolio, including standard meters and smart metering products, systems and services, for applications in the residential and commercial industrial markets for water and heat. The Company operates under the Itron brand across the world. Its Gas and Water manufacturing facilities are located throughout the world, while its Electricity manufacturing facilities are located in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and North America.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Itron (ITRI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 64.7
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 46%
Total Debt to Equity 48.3%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Total Capital 3.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Return On Equity 5.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
EBITDA Margin 8.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Operating Margin 4.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Net Profit Margin 1.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Effective Tax Rate 58.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32%
Payout Ratio 0%

ITRI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ITRI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2018.197 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Itron. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Itron. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ITRI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ITRI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Itron, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Itron.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ITRI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ITRI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Itron.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Itron. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ITRI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ITRI are equal to 23.9%.

Life of production assets of 12.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Itron operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ITRI is equal to -6.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $786.416 million for Itron - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.202 million for Itron is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Itron at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Itron: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ These technology stocks fell to new 52-week lows   [Oct-23-18 12:46PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Itron (ITRI) Tops Q2 Earnings Estimates   [Aug-06-18 05:20PM  Zacks]
▶ Itron: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Itron to Improve Water Infrastructure in Barbados   [Jun-28-18 08:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ Itron and New Cosmos Collaborate to Improve Gas Safety   [Jun-27-18 08:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ Itron to Deploy OpenWay® Riva Solution in Thailand   [Jun-19-18 08:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ Itron Announces Hands-Free BYOT Solution   [Jun-14-18 08:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ Power Over Energy Tops 1 Million Facebook Fans   [Jun-05-18 08:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ Insider Buys Of The Week: Kellogg, Itron And More   [May-28-18 09:38AM  Benzinga]
▶ Itron to Monitor Electric System in New Zealand   [May-15-18 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Itron: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-14-18 04:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Itron to Release First Quarter 2018 Results on May 14, 2018   [Apr-24-18 06:35PM  Business Wire]
▶ Itron Opens Call for Abstracts for Itron Utility Week 2018   [Mar-20-18 08:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ Itron CEO: Rise of 'smart cities'   [07:35AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Itron tops Street 4Q forecasts   [Feb-28-18 04:27PM  Associated Press]
▶ Itron Modernizes Water Metering System in Rwanda   [Jan-25-18 08:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ Industrial Favorites for 2018: From Auto Parts to Robots   [Jan-19-18 05:46AM  Investopedia]

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