Intrinsic value of Illinois Tool Works Inc. - ITW

Previous Close

$151.93

  Intrinsic Value

$96.63

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-36%

Previous close

$151.93

 
Intrinsic value

$96.63

 
Up/down potential

-36%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ITW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 49.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  15,063
  15,410
  15,806
  16,250
  16,743
  17,284
  17,872
  18,509
  19,196
  19,933
  20,721
  21,562
  22,457
  23,409
  24,418
  25,489
  26,621
  27,819
  29,085
  30,421
  31,831
  33,318
  34,886
  36,537
  38,277
  40,108
  42,036
  44,064
  46,199
  48,443
Variable operating expenses, $m
  11,392
  11,640
  11,925
  12,244
  12,598
  12,986
  13,409
  13,867
  14,360
  14,889
  14,883
  15,488
  16,131
  16,814
  17,540
  18,308
  19,122
  19,982
  20,891
  21,851
  22,864
  23,932
  25,058
  26,244
  27,494
  28,809
  30,194
  31,651
  33,184
  34,796
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  11,392
  11,640
  11,925
  12,244
  12,598
  12,986
  13,409
  13,867
  14,360
  14,889
  14,883
  15,488
  16,131
  16,814
  17,540
  18,308
  19,122
  19,982
  20,891
  21,851
  22,864
  23,932
  25,058
  26,244
  27,494
  28,809
  30,194
  31,651
  33,184
  34,796
Operating income, $m
  3,672
  3,769
  3,881
  4,006
  4,145
  4,297
  4,463
  4,643
  4,836
  5,044
  5,837
  6,074
  6,326
  6,595
  6,879
  7,180
  7,500
  7,837
  8,194
  8,570
  8,967
  9,386
  9,828
  10,293
  10,783
  11,299
  11,842
  12,413
  13,015
  13,647
EBITDA, $m
  4,534
  4,638
  4,757
  4,891
  5,040
  5,202
  5,379
  5,571
  5,778
  6,000
  6,237
  6,490
  6,759
  7,046
  7,350
  7,672
  8,013
  8,373
  8,754
  9,156
  9,581
  10,028
  10,500
  10,997
  11,521
  12,072
  12,652
  13,263
  13,905
  14,581
Interest expense (income), $m
  212
  399
  411
  426
  443
  461
  482
  505
  530
  557
  587
  618
  651
  687
  725
  765
  808
  854
  902
  953
  1,007
  1,063
  1,123
  1,186
  1,253
  1,323
  1,397
  1,475
  1,557
  1,643
  1,733
Earnings before tax, $m
  3,273
  3,358
  3,455
  3,564
  3,684
  3,815
  3,958
  4,112
  4,279
  4,457
  5,219
  5,423
  5,639
  5,869
  6,114
  6,372
  6,646
  6,935
  7,241
  7,564
  7,904
  8,263
  8,641
  9,040
  9,460
  9,902
  10,367
  10,857
  11,372
  11,914
Tax expense, $m
  884
  907
  933
  962
  995
  1,030
  1,069
  1,110
  1,155
  1,203
  1,409
  1,464
  1,523
  1,585
  1,651
  1,720
  1,794
  1,872
  1,955
  2,042
  2,134
  2,231
  2,333
  2,441
  2,554
  2,674
  2,799
  2,931
  3,070
  3,217
Net income, $m
  2,390
  2,452
  2,522
  2,602
  2,689
  2,785
  2,889
  3,002
  3,123
  3,254
  3,810
  3,959
  4,117
  4,285
  4,463
  4,652
  4,851
  5,063
  5,286
  5,521
  5,770
  6,032
  6,308
  6,599
  6,906
  7,229
  7,568
  7,926
  8,302
  8,697

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  15,170
  15,518
  15,917
  16,365
  16,861
  17,406
  17,998
  18,640
  19,331
  20,073
  20,867
  21,714
  22,615
  23,574
  24,591
  25,668
  26,809
  28,015
  29,290
  30,636
  32,056
  33,553
  35,132
  36,795
  38,547
  40,391
  42,332
  44,375
  46,524
  48,785
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  15,170
  15,518
  15,917
  16,365
  16,861
  17,406
  17,998
  18,640
  19,331
  20,073
  20,867
  21,714
  22,615
  23,574
  24,591
  25,668
  26,809
  28,015
  29,290
  30,636
  32,056
  33,553
  35,132
  36,795
  38,547
  40,391
  42,332
  44,375
  46,524
  48,785
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
Average production assets, $m
  4,820
  4,931
  5,058
  5,200
  5,358
  5,531
  5,719
  5,923
  6,143
  6,378
  6,631
  6,900
  7,186
  7,491
  7,814
  8,156
  8,519
  8,902
  9,307
  9,735
  10,186
  10,662
  11,164
  11,692
  12,249
  12,835
  13,452
  14,101
  14,784
  15,502
Working capital, $m
  2,124
  2,173
  2,229
  2,291
  2,361
  2,437
  2,520
  2,610
  2,707
  2,810
  2,922
  3,040
  3,166
  3,301
  3,443
  3,594
  3,754
  3,923
  4,101
  4,289
  4,488
  4,698
  4,919
  5,152
  5,397
  5,655
  5,927
  6,213
  6,514
  6,830
Total debt, $m
  7,611
  7,884
  8,195
  8,545
  8,933
  9,358
  9,821
  10,322
  10,862
  11,441
  12,061
  12,722
  13,427
  14,175
  14,969
  15,811
  16,702
  17,644
  18,639
  19,691
  20,800
  21,969
  23,202
  24,501
  25,869
  27,309
  28,826
  30,421
  32,099
  33,865
Total liabilities, $m
  11,847
  12,120
  12,431
  12,781
  13,169
  13,594
  14,057
  14,558
  15,098
  15,677
  16,297
  16,958
  17,663
  18,411
  19,205
  20,047
  20,938
  21,880
  22,875
  23,927
  25,036
  26,205
  27,438
  28,737
  30,105
  31,545
  33,062
  34,657
  36,335
  38,101
Total equity, $m
  3,322
  3,399
  3,486
  3,584
  3,693
  3,812
  3,942
  4,082
  4,234
  4,396
  4,570
  4,755
  4,953
  5,163
  5,385
  5,621
  5,871
  6,135
  6,414
  6,709
  7,020
  7,348
  7,694
  8,058
  8,442
  8,846
  9,271
  9,718
  10,189
  10,684
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  15,169
  15,519
  15,917
  16,365
  16,862
  17,406
  17,999
  18,640
  19,332
  20,073
  20,867
  21,713
  22,616
  23,574
  24,590
  25,668
  26,809
  28,015
  29,289
  30,636
  32,056
  33,553
  35,132
  36,795
  38,547
  40,391
  42,333
  44,375
  46,524
  48,785
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.290
  2.320
  2.350
  2.380
  2.420
  2.450
  2.490
  2.530
  2.570
  2.600
  2.640
  2.680
  2.710
  2.750
  2.780
  2.810
  2.840
  2.880
  2.910
  2.930
  2.960
  2.990
  3.020
  3.040
  3.060
  3.090
  3.110
  3.130
  3.150
  3.170
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219
  0.219

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  2,390
  2,452
  2,522
  2,602
  2,689
  2,785
  2,889
  3,002
  3,123
  3,254
  3,810
  3,959
  4,117
  4,285
  4,463
  4,652
  4,851
  5,063
  5,286
  5,521
  5,770
  6,032
  6,308
  6,599
  6,906
  7,229
  7,568
  7,926
  8,302
  8,697
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  862
  869
  876
  885
  894
  905
  916
  929
  942
  956
  399
  416
  433
  451
  471
  491
  513
  536
  561
  586
  614
  642
  673
  704
  738
  773
  810
  849
  891
  934
Funds from operations, $m
  3,252
  3,320
  3,399
  3,486
  3,583
  3,690
  3,805
  3,931
  4,065
  4,210
  4,210
  4,374
  4,550
  4,736
  4,934
  5,143
  5,365
  5,599
  5,846
  6,108
  6,384
  6,674
  6,981
  7,304
  7,644
  8,002
  8,378
  8,775
  9,192
  9,631
Change in working capital, $m
  42
  49
  56
  63
  69
  76
  83
  90
  97
  104
  111
  119
  126
  134
  142
  151
  160
  169
  178
  188
  199
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258
  272
  286
  301
  316
Cash from operations, $m
  3,210
  3,272
  3,343
  3,424
  3,514
  3,614
  3,722
  3,841
  3,968
  4,106
  4,099
  4,256
  4,423
  4,602
  4,791
  4,992
  5,205
  5,430
  5,668
  5,919
  6,185
  6,465
  6,760
  7,071
  7,398
  7,743
  8,107
  8,489
  8,891
  9,314
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -284
  -290
  -297
  -305
  -313
  -323
  -333
  -345
  -357
  -370
  -384
  -399
  -416
  -433
  -451
  -471
  -491
  -513
  -536
  -561
  -586
  -614
  -642
  -673
  -704
  -738
  -773
  -810
  -849
  -891
New CAPEX, $m
  -101
  -111
  -127
  -142
  -158
  -173
  -188
  -204
  -220
  -236
  -252
  -269
  -287
  -305
  -323
  -342
  -362
  -383
  -405
  -428
  -451
  -476
  -502
  -528
  -557
  -586
  -617
  -649
  -683
  -718
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -385
  -401
  -424
  -447
  -471
  -496
  -521
  -549
  -577
  -606
  -636
  -668
  -703
  -738
  -774
  -813
  -853
  -896
  -941
  -989
  -1,037
  -1,090
  -1,144
  -1,201
  -1,261
  -1,324
  -1,390
  -1,459
  -1,532
  -1,609
Free cash flow, $m
  2,825
  2,870
  2,919
  2,977
  3,043
  3,118
  3,201
  3,292
  3,392
  3,500
  3,462
  3,587
  3,721
  3,864
  4,017
  4,179
  4,351
  4,533
  4,727
  4,931
  5,147
  5,375
  5,616
  5,870
  6,137
  6,420
  6,717
  7,030
  7,359
  7,705
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  231
  272
  311
  350
  387
  425
  463
  501
  540
  579
  620
  661
  704
  748
  794
  842
  891
  942
  995
  1,051
  1,109
  1,170
  1,233
  1,299
  1,368
  1,440
  1,516
  1,595
  1,678
  1,765
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  231
  272
  311
  350
  387
  425
  463
  501
  540
  579
  620
  661
  704
  748
  794
  842
  891
  942
  995
  1,051
  1,109
  1,170
  1,233
  1,299
  1,368
  1,440
  1,516
  1,595
  1,678
  1,765
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3,057
  3,143
  3,231
  3,326
  3,431
  3,543
  3,664
  3,793
  3,932
  4,079
  4,082
  4,249
  4,425
  4,613
  4,811
  5,021
  5,242
  5,476
  5,722
  5,982
  6,256
  6,545
  6,849
  7,169
  7,506
  7,860
  8,233
  8,625
  9,037
  9,471
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -68
  -76
  -87
  -98
  -109
  -119
  -130
  -141
  -151
  -162
  -174
  -185
  -197
  -210
  -223
  -236
  -250
  -264
  -279
  -295
  -311
  -328
  -346
  -364
  -384
  -404
  -425
  -447
  -471
  -495
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  2,988
  3,066
  3,143
  3,228
  3,322
  3,424
  3,534
  3,653
  3,780
  3,917
  3,908
  4,063
  4,228
  4,403
  4,588
  4,785
  4,992
  5,211
  5,443
  5,687
  5,945
  6,217
  6,503
  6,804
  7,122
  7,456
  7,808
  8,178
  8,567
  8,976
Discount rate, %
  6.00
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  2,819
  2,714
  2,594
  2,468
  2,336
  2,199
  2,057
  1,910
  1,760
  1,608
  1,401
  1,258
  1,118
  982
  852
  730
  616
  512
  420
  338
  267
  207
  158
  117
  86
  61
  42
  28
  19
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Illinois Tool Works Inc. is a manufacturer of industrial products and equipment. The Company operates through seven segments. The Automotive OEM segment produces components and fasteners for automotive-related applications. The Food Equipment segment offers commercial food equipment. The Test & Measurement and Electronics segment produces test and measurement, and electronic manufacturing and maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) solutions. The Welding segment produces welding equipment, consumables and accessories for industrial and commercial applications. The Polymers & Fluids segment produces adhesives, sealants, lubrication and cutting fluids, and fluids and polymers for auto aftermarket maintenance and appearance. The Construction Products segment supplies engineered fastening systems and solutions. The Specialty Products segment produces beverage packaging equipment and consumables, product coding and marking equipment and consumables, and appliance components and fasteners.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.9
Price to Sales 3.9
Price to Book 12.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 26
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -3.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 168.7%
Total Debt to Equity 184%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 14.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Return On Total Capital 16.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Return On Equity 42.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.1%
EBITDA Margin 26.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
Operating Margin 22.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.1%
Net Profit Margin 15%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Effective Tax Rate 30%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
Payout Ratio 40.3%

ITW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ITW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $14768 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Illinois Tool Works Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Illinois Tool Works Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ITW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6%, whose default value for ITW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Illinois Tool Works Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Illinois Tool Works Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ITW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ITW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Illinois Tool Works Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Illinois Tool Works Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ITW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ITW are equal to 32%.

Life of production assets of 16.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Illinois Tool Works Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ITW is equal to 14.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3254 million for Illinois Tool Works Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 328.118 million for Illinois Tool Works Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Illinois Tool Works Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $49.9 billion.

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