Intrinsic value of Invesco Plc - IVZ

Previous Close

$21.94

  Intrinsic Value

$41.28

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+88%

Previous close

$21.94

 
Intrinsic value

$41.28

 
Up/down potential

+88%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as IVZ.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IVZ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  5,420
  5,545
  5,687
  5,847
  6,025
  6,219
  6,431
  6,660
  6,907
  7,172
  7,456
  7,759
  8,081
  8,423
  8,787
  9,172
  9,579
  10,010
  10,466
  10,947
  11,454
  11,989
  12,553
  13,147
  13,773
  14,432
  15,126
  15,856
  16,624
  17,431
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,063
  4,135
  4,217
  4,309
  4,412
  4,524
  4,646
  4,779
  4,921
  5,074
  4,305
  4,480
  4,666
  4,863
  5,073
  5,295
  5,531
  5,780
  6,043
  6,320
  6,613
  6,922
  7,248
  7,591
  7,952
  8,333
  8,733
  9,155
  9,598
  10,064
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,063
  4,135
  4,217
  4,309
  4,412
  4,524
  4,646
  4,779
  4,921
  5,074
  4,305
  4,480
  4,666
  4,863
  5,073
  5,295
  5,531
  5,780
  6,043
  6,320
  6,613
  6,922
  7,248
  7,591
  7,952
  8,333
  8,733
  9,155
  9,598
  10,064
Operating income, $m
  1,357
  1,410
  1,470
  1,538
  1,613
  1,695
  1,785
  1,882
  1,986
  2,098
  3,151
  3,279
  3,415
  3,560
  3,713
  3,876
  4,048
  4,231
  4,423
  4,626
  4,841
  5,067
  5,305
  5,556
  5,821
  6,100
  6,393
  6,701
  7,026
  7,367
EBITDA, $m
  2,456
  2,512
  2,577
  2,649
  2,730
  2,818
  2,914
  3,018
  3,129
  3,250
  3,378
  3,515
  3,661
  3,816
  3,981
  4,155
  4,340
  4,535
  4,742
  4,959
  5,189
  5,432
  5,687
  5,957
  6,240
  6,539
  6,853
  7,184
  7,532
  7,898
Interest expense (income), $m
  81
  412
  433
  461
  494
  530
  570
  614
  662
  715
  771
  831
  895
  964
  1,037
  1,115
  1,197
  1,285
  1,377
  1,475
  1,578
  1,687
  1,803
  1,924
  2,052
  2,187
  2,329
  2,479
  2,636
  2,802
  2,976
Earnings before tax, $m
  945
  977
  1,009
  1,044
  1,083
  1,125
  1,170
  1,219
  1,271
  1,327
  2,320
  2,384
  2,451
  2,523
  2,599
  2,679
  2,764
  2,854
  2,948
  3,048
  3,153
  3,264
  3,381
  3,504
  3,634
  3,770
  3,914
  4,065
  4,224
  4,391
Tax expense, $m
  255
  264
  272
  282
  292
  304
  316
  329
  343
  358
  627
  644
  662
  681
  702
  723
  746
  770
  796
  823
  851
  881
  913
  946
  981
  1,018
  1,057
  1,098
  1,140
  1,186
Net income, $m
  690
  713
  737
  762
  791
  821
  854
  890
  928
  969
  1,694
  1,740
  1,790
  1,842
  1,897
  1,956
  2,018
  2,083
  2,152
  2,225
  2,302
  2,383
  2,468
  2,558
  2,653
  2,752
  2,857
  2,967
  3,083
  3,205

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  31,513
  32,238
  33,067
  33,997
  35,027
  36,158
  37,390
  38,723
  40,159
  41,700
  43,349
  45,108
  46,981
  48,972
  51,085
  53,323
  55,693
  58,199
  60,847
  63,643
  66,593
  69,704
  72,983
  76,438
  80,077
  83,909
  87,941
  92,185
  96,649
  101,345
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  31,513
  32,238
  33,067
  33,997
  35,027
  36,158
  37,390
  38,723
  40,159
  41,700
  43,349
  45,108
  46,981
  48,972
  51,085
  53,323
  55,693
  58,199
  60,847
  63,643
  66,593
  69,704
  72,983
  76,438
  80,077
  83,909
  87,941
  92,185
  96,649
  101,345
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
  0.172
Average production assets, $m
  4,949
  5,063
  5,193
  5,339
  5,501
  5,678
  5,872
  6,081
  6,306
  6,548
  6,807
  7,084
  7,378
  7,690
  8,022
  8,374
  8,746
  9,139
  9,555
  9,994
  10,457
  10,946
  11,461
  12,004
  12,575
  13,177
  13,810
  14,476
  15,177
  15,915
Working capital, $m
  -298
  -305
  -313
  -322
  -331
  -342
  -354
  -366
  -380
  -394
  -410
  -427
  -444
  -463
  -483
  -504
  -527
  -551
  -576
  -602
  -630
  -659
  -690
  -723
  -758
  -794
  -832
  -872
  -914
  -959
Total debt, $m
  8,019
  8,543
  9,142
  9,815
  10,560
  11,378
  12,268
  13,232
  14,270
  15,384
  16,576
  17,848
  19,203
  20,642
  22,169
  23,788
  25,501
  27,313
  29,228
  31,249
  33,382
  35,631
  38,002
  40,500
  43,131
  45,901
  48,817
  51,885
  55,113
  58,508
Total liabilities, $m
  22,784
  23,308
  23,907
  24,580
  25,325
  26,142
  27,033
  27,997
  29,035
  30,149
  31,341
  32,613
  33,967
  35,407
  36,934
  38,553
  40,266
  42,078
  43,992
  46,014
  48,147
  50,396
  52,767
  55,265
  57,896
  60,666
  63,582
  66,650
  69,878
  73,273
Total equity, $m
  8,729
  8,930
  9,159
  9,417
  9,703
  10,016
  10,357
  10,726
  11,124
  11,551
  12,008
  12,495
  13,014
  13,565
  14,150
  14,771
  15,427
  16,121
  16,855
  17,629
  18,446
  19,308
  20,216
  21,173
  22,181
  23,243
  24,360
  25,535
  26,772
  28,073
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  31,513
  32,238
  33,066
  33,997
  35,028
  36,158
  37,390
  38,723
  40,159
  41,700
  43,349
  45,108
  46,981
  48,972
  51,084
  53,324
  55,693
  58,199
  60,847
  63,643
  66,593
  69,704
  72,983
  76,438
  80,077
  83,909
  87,942
  92,185
  96,650
  101,346
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.920
  0.960
  1.000
  1.040
  1.090
  1.140
  1.180
  1.230
  1.280
  1.330
  1.380
  1.430
  1.480
  1.520
  1.570
  1.610
  1.650
  1.690
  1.730
  1.770
  1.810
  1.850
  1.880
  1.910
  1.940
  1.970
  2.000
  2.030
  2.060
  2.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  690
  713
  737
  762
  791
  821
  854
  890
  928
  969
  1,694
  1,740
  1,790
  1,842
  1,897
  1,956
  2,018
  2,083
  2,152
  2,225
  2,302
  2,383
  2,468
  2,558
  2,653
  2,752
  2,857
  2,967
  3,083
  3,205
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,098
  1,102
  1,106
  1,111
  1,117
  1,123
  1,129
  1,136
  1,144
  1,152
  227
  236
  246
  256
  267
  279
  292
  305
  319
  333
  349
  365
  382
  400
  419
  439
  460
  483
  506
  530
Funds from operations, $m
  1,788
  1,815
  1,843
  1,874
  1,907
  1,944
  1,983
  2,026
  2,072
  2,121
  1,921
  1,976
  2,035
  2,098
  2,165
  2,235
  2,309
  2,388
  2,471
  2,558
  2,651
  2,748
  2,850
  2,958
  3,072
  3,192
  3,318
  3,450
  3,589
  3,736
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
Cash from operations, $m
  1,794
  1,822
  1,851
  1,882
  1,917
  1,954
  1,995
  2,039
  2,085
  2,135
  1,936
  1,993
  2,053
  2,117
  2,185
  2,256
  2,332
  2,411
  2,496
  2,585
  2,678
  2,777
  2,881
  2,991
  3,106
  3,228
  3,356
  3,490
  3,632
  3,780
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -162
  -165
  -169
  -173
  -178
  -183
  -189
  -196
  -203
  -210
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -246
  -256
  -267
  -279
  -292
  -305
  -319
  -333
  -349
  -365
  -382
  -400
  -419
  -439
  -460
  -483
  -506
New CAPEX, $m
  -98
  -114
  -130
  -146
  -162
  -178
  -193
  -209
  -226
  -242
  -259
  -276
  -294
  -313
  -332
  -352
  -372
  -394
  -416
  -439
  -463
  -489
  -515
  -543
  -571
  -602
  -633
  -666
  -701
  -737
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -260
  -279
  -299
  -319
  -340
  -361
  -382
  -405
  -429
  -452
  -477
  -503
  -530
  -559
  -588
  -619
  -651
  -686
  -721
  -758
  -796
  -838
  -880
  -925
  -971
  -1,021
  -1,072
  -1,126
  -1,184
  -1,243
Free cash flow, $m
  1,534
  1,543
  1,552
  1,563
  1,577
  1,594
  1,612
  1,633
  1,657
  1,683
  1,459
  1,490
  1,523
  1,558
  1,596
  1,637
  1,680
  1,726
  1,775
  1,827
  1,882
  1,940
  2,002
  2,066
  2,135
  2,207
  2,283
  2,363
  2,448
  2,537
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  384
  524
  599
  673
  745
  818
  890
  964
  1,038
  1,114
  1,192
  1,272
  1,354
  1,439
  1,527
  1,619
  1,713
  1,812
  1,914
  2,021
  2,133
  2,249
  2,371
  2,498
  2,631
  2,770
  2,916
  3,068
  3,228
  3,395
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  384
  524
  599
  673
  745
  818
  890
  964
  1,038
  1,114
  1,192
  1,272
  1,354
  1,439
  1,527
  1,619
  1,713
  1,812
  1,914
  2,021
  2,133
  2,249
  2,371
  2,498
  2,631
  2,770
  2,916
  3,068
  3,228
  3,395
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,919
  2,067
  2,151
  2,236
  2,322
  2,411
  2,503
  2,597
  2,695
  2,797
  2,651
  2,762
  2,877
  2,998
  3,124
  3,256
  3,394
  3,538
  3,690
  3,848
  4,015
  4,189
  4,372
  4,564
  4,766
  4,977
  5,199
  5,432
  5,676
  5,932
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -150
  -201
  -229
  -258
  -285
  -313
  -341
  -369
  -398
  -427
  -457
  -487
  -519
  -551
  -585
  -620
  -656
  -694
  -733
  -774
  -817
  -862
  -908
  -957
  -1,008
  -1,061
  -1,117
  -1,175
  -1,237
  -1,301
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,768
  1,867
  1,921
  1,978
  2,037
  2,098
  2,162
  2,228
  2,298
  2,370
  2,195
  2,274
  2,358
  2,446
  2,539
  2,636
  2,737
  2,844
  2,956
  3,074
  3,198
  3,328
  3,464
  3,607
  3,758
  3,916
  4,082
  4,256
  4,439
  4,631
Discount rate, %
  7.20
  7.56
  7.94
  8.33
  8.75
  9.19
  9.65
  10.13
  10.64
  11.17
  11.73
  12.31
  12.93
  13.58
  14.26
  14.97
  15.72
  16.50
  17.33
  18.19
  19.10
  20.06
  21.06
  22.11
  23.22
  24.38
  25.60
  26.88
  28.22
  29.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,649
  1,614
  1,528
  1,436
  1,339
  1,238
  1,134
  1,030
  925
  822
  648
  564
  485
  412
  344
  283
  229
  182
  142
  109
  81
  60
  43
  30
  20
  13
  9
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Invesco Ltd. (Invesco) is an independent investment management company. The Company provides a range of investment capabilities and outcomes, which are delivered through a set of investment vehicles, to help clients achieve their investment objectives. It has a presence in the retail and institutional markets within the investment management industry in North America; Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and Asia-Pacific. Its Jemstep solution provides wealth management home offices and their advisors with a suite of technology solutions that are customizable and are integrated into existing systems. The solution offers advisors an open architecture platform that includes Invesco's fundamental and factor-based investment strategies. It offers retail products within various asset classes. It offers a suite of domestic and global strategies, including traditional and quantitative equities, fixed income and absolute return strategies.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Invesco Plc (IVZ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.4
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 68.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -466.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 18.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 86.7%
Total Debt to Equity 86.7%
Interest Coverage 16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Return On Total Capital 5.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 11.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 70.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.4%
EBITDA Margin 29.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.6%
Operating Margin 25%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 25.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.3%
Net Profit Margin 18%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Effective Tax Rate 28.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.4%
Payout Ratio 53.9%

IVZ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IVZ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5314 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Invesco Plc. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Invesco Plc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IVZ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.2%, whose default value for IVZ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Invesco Plc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Invesco Plc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IVZ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IVZ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Invesco Plc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Invesco Plc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IVZ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IVZ are equal to 91.3%.

Life of production assets of 64.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Invesco Plc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IVZ is equal to -5.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $8578.8 million for Invesco Plc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 396.866 million for Invesco Plc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Invesco Plc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.7 billion.

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