Intrinsic value of JAKKS Pacific - JAKK

Previous Close

$2.43

  Intrinsic Value

$0.31

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

Previous close

$2.43

 
Intrinsic value

$0.31

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of JAKK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  625
  640
  656
  675
  695
  718
  742
  768
  797
  828
  860
  895
  932
  972
  1,014
  1,058
  1,105
  1,155
  1,207
  1,263
  1,322
  1,383
  1,448
  1,517
  1,589
  1,665
  1,745
  1,829
  1,918
  2,011
Variable operating expenses, $m
  122
  125
  128
  132
  135
  140
  144
  149
  154
  160
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  225
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
  311
  326
  341
  358
  375
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  575
  588
  601
  614
  628
  642
  656
  670
  685
  700
  715
  731
  747
  764
  780
  797
  815
  833
  851
  870
  889
  909
  929
  949
  970
  991
  1,013
  1,035
  1,058
  1,082
Total operating expenses, $m
  697
  713
  729
  746
  763
  782
  800
  819
  839
  860
  875
  898
  921
  945
  969
  994
  1,021
  1,048
  1,076
  1,106
  1,136
  1,167
  1,199
  1,232
  1,266
  1,302
  1,339
  1,376
  1,416
  1,457
Operating income, $m
  -72
  -73
  -73
  -71
  -68
  -64
  -58
  -51
  -42
  -33
  -16
  -3
  11
  27
  44
  63
  84
  107
  131
  157
  186
  216
  249
  285
  323
  363
  406
  453
  502
  554
EBITDA, $m
  -55
  -56
  -55
  -53
  -49
  -44
  -38
  -31
  -22
  -11
  0
  14
  29
  45
  63
  83
  105
  128
  153
  181
  210
  242
  276
  313
  352
  394
  439
  487
  538
  592
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
Earnings before tax, $m
  -81
  -82
  -82
  -81
  -78
  -74
  -69
  -63
  -55
  -46
  -29
  -17
  -4
  11
  27
  45
  65
  86
  109
  134
  161
  191
  222
  256
  292
  331
  372
  416
  464
  514
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  3
  7
  12
  17
  23
  29
  36
  44
  51
  60
  69
  79
  89
  100
  112
  125
  139
Net income, $m
  -81
  -82
  -82
  -81
  -78
  -74
  -69
  -63
  -55
  -46
  -29
  -17
  -4
  8
  20
  33
  47
  63
  80
  98
  118
  139
  162
  187
  213
  241
  272
  304
  338
  375

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  378
  387
  396
  408
  420
  434
  448
  464
  482
  500
  520
  541
  563
  587
  613
  639
  668
  698
  730
  763
  799
  836
  875
  917
  960
  1,006
  1,054
  1,105
  1,159
  1,215
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  378
  387
  396
  408
  420
  434
  448
  464
  482
  500
  520
  541
  563
  587
  613
  639
  668
  698
  730
  763
  799
  836
  875
  917
  960
  1,006
  1,054
  1,105
  1,159
  1,215
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.653
  1.654
  1.657
  1.654
  1.655
  1.654
  1.656
  1.655
  1.654
  1.656
  1.654
  1.654
  1.655
  1.656
  1.654
  1.656
  1.654
  1.655
  1.653
  1.655
  1.655
  1.654
  1.655
  1.654
  1.655
  1.655
  1.656
  1.655
  1.655
  1.655
Average production assets, $m
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
Working capital, $m
  110
  113
  115
  119
  122
  126
  131
  135
  140
  146
  151
  158
  164
  171
  178
  186
  195
  203
  213
  222
  233
  243
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  338
  354
Total debt, $m
  165
  172
  179
  187
  197
  207
  218
  230
  242
  256
  271
  287
  304
  321
  340
  360
  382
  404
  428
  453
  479
  507
  536
  567
  600
  634
  670
  708
  748
  791
Total liabilities, $m
  282
  289
  296
  305
  314
  324
  335
  347
  360
  374
  388
  404
  421
  439
  458
  478
  499
  521
  545
  570
  596
  624
  654
  685
  717
  752
  788
  826
  866
  908
Total equity, $m
  96
  98
  100
  103
  106
  110
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  221
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  378
  387
  396
  408
  420
  434
  448
  464
  482
  501
  520
  541
  564
  588
  613
  640
  668
  698
  730
  763
  798
  835
  875
  917
  960
  1,007
  1,055
  1,106
  1,159
  1,215
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.730
  1.750
  1.780
  1.820
  1.850
  1.880
  1.920
  1.950
  1.990
  2.030
  2.060
  2.100
  2.130
  2.160
  2.200
  2.230
  2.260
  2.290
  2.320
  2.350
  2.370
  2.400
  2.420
  2.450
  2.470
  2.490
  2.510
  2.530
  2.550
  2.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253
  0.253

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -81
  -82
  -82
  -81
  -78
  -74
  -69
  -63
  -55
  -46
  -29
  -17
  -4
  8
  20
  33
  47
  63
  80
  98
  118
  139
  162
  187
  213
  241
  272
  304
  338
  375
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
Funds from operations, $m
  -64
  -65
  -64
  -63
  -59
  -55
  -49
  -42
  -34
  -24
  -13
  -1
  13
  26
  39
  52
  68
  84
  102
  121
  142
  165
  189
  215
  243
  272
  304
  338
  374
  413
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
Cash from operations, $m
  -66
  -67
  -67
  -66
  -63
  -59
  -54
  -47
  -39
  -30
  -19
  -7
  7
  19
  31
  45
  59
  75
  93
  112
  132
  154
  178
  203
  230
  259
  290
  323
  359
  396
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
Free cash flow, $m
  -78
  -80
  -81
  -80
  -78
  -74
  -69
  -63
  -56
  -47
  -38
  -26
  -13
  -2
  9
  22
  35
  50
  66
  84
  103
  124
  146
  170
  195
  222
  252
  283
  316
  352
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  83
  85
  85
  84
  81
  78
  73
  67
  59
  50
  34
  23
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  88
  91
  92
  92
  90
  88
  84
  79
  72
  64
  49
  39
  27
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  12
  12
  13
  16
  28
  42
  57
  73
  90
  109
  130
  152
  175
  201
  228
  257
  288
  321
  356
  394
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -83
  -85
  -85
  -84
  -81
  -78
  -73
  -67
  -59
  -50
  -34
  -23
  -10
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -73
  -74
  -73
  -71
  -68
  -64
  -58
  -51
  -43
  -34
  -23
  -10
  3
  10
  22
  35
  49
  65
  82
  101
  121
  142
  165
  190
  217
  245
  276
  308
  343
  380
Discount rate, %
  7.30
  7.67
  8.05
  8.45
  8.87
  9.32
  9.78
  10.27
  10.79
  11.32
  11.89
  12.49
  13.11
  13.77
  14.45
  15.18
  15.93
  16.73
  17.57
  18.45
  19.37
  20.34
  21.35
  22.42
  23.54
  24.72
  25.96
  27.25
  28.62
  30.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -68
  -64
  -58
  -52
  -45
  -37
  -30
  -24
  -17
  -12
  -7
  -3
  1
  2
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  46.0
  21.2
  9.9
  4.7
  2.3
  1.2
  0.6
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
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JAKKS Pacific, Inc. is a multi-line, multi-brand toy company. The Company designs, produces, markets and distributes toys and related products, pet toys, consumables and related products, electronics and related products, kids indoor and outdoor furniture, and other consumer products. The Company operates through two business segments: traditional toys and electronics, and role play, novelty and seasonal toys. The traditional toys and electronics segment includes action figures, vehicles, playsets, plush products, dolls, accessories, electronic products, construction toys, infant and pre-school toys, foot to floor ride-on vehicles, wagons and pet products and related products. The role play, novelty and seasonal segment includes role play and dress-up products, novelty toys, seasonal and outdoor products, indoor and outdoor kids' furniture and Halloween and everyday costume play.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  JAKKS Pacific (JAKK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 47.1
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 151.5%
Total Debt to Equity 159%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Total Capital 0.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Equity 0.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
EBITDA Margin 5.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Operating Margin 2.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Net Profit Margin 0.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Effective Tax Rate 80%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

JAKK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JAKK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $613.111 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by JAKKS Pacific. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of JAKKS Pacific. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JAKK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.3%, whose default value for JAKK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of JAKKS Pacific, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of JAKKS Pacific.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JAKK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 19.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $563 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JAKK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for JAKKS Pacific.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for JAKKS Pacific. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JAKK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JAKK are equal to 9.3%.

Life of production assets of 4.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in JAKKS Pacific operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JAKK is equal to 17.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $93.544 million for JAKKS Pacific - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.17 million for JAKKS Pacific is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of JAKKS Pacific at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
MAT Mattel 13.26 11.27  sell
HAS Hasbro 96.69 76.53  sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ This Years Holiday Toy Craze Involves a Lot of Squishing   [Nov-13-18 11:26PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Jakks: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ JAKKS Pacific's Q3 Earnings Preview   [Oct-24-18 03:08PM  Benzinga]
▶ JAKKS Pacific Announces Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Call   [Oct-11-18 04:46PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is JAKKS Pacific Inc (NASDAQ:JAKK) Undervalued?   [Sep-07-18 02:04PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ JAKKS Pacific Launches FanHeads   [Aug-09-18 07:33AM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 Large and Small Earnings Stories You May Have Missed   [Jul-27-18 12:30PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Jakks: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:56AM  Associated Press]
▶ JAKKS Pacific (JAKK) Enters Oversold Territory   [Jul-18-18 07:26AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for July 10th   [Jul-10-18 09:37AM  Zacks]
▶ Taking Stock of These Five Companies   [Jul-09-18 02:57PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for July 5th   [Jul-05-18 09:51AM  Zacks]
▶ Can 'Incredibles 2' Revive JAKKS Pacific?   [May-18-18 02:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ JAKKS Pacific, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Apr-26-18 07:55AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Jakks: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:39AM  Associated Press]
▶ JAKKS Pacific Announces First Quarter 2018 Earnings Call   [Apr-12-18 05:36PM  Business Wire]
▶ JAKKS Pacific Announces Update on Special Committee Process   [Mar-26-18 06:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for February 27th   [Feb-27-18 07:17AM  Zacks]
▶ Jakks reports 4Q loss   [Feb-22-18 10:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ Toy Stock Nightmare: Mattel vs. Jakks Pacific   [Feb-02-18 10:42AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Toy Story Nightmare   [10:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Here Are The 180 Toys R Us Stores That Are Closing   [Jan-24-18 01:55PM  Fortune]
▶ Jakks Pacific CFO to resign   [Dec-29-17 02:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 3 Stocks Hitting New 52-Week Lows You Can Buy Right Now   [Dec-11-17 10:48AM  Motley Fool]
▶ What Does JAKKS Pacific Incs (JAKK) Share Price Indicate?   [Nov-21-17 07:39PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ JAKKS Pacific Nails Deal with Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.   [Nov-14-17 06:00AM  Business Wire]

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