Intrinsic value of Jason Industries, Inc. - JASN

Previous Close

$0.68

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$0.68

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of JASN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  625
  640
  656
  675
  695
  717
  742
  768
  797
  827
  860
  895
  932
  972
  1,014
  1,058
  1,105
  1,155
  1,207
  1,263
  1,321
  1,383
  1,448
  1,517
  1,589
  1,665
  1,745
  1,829
  1,918
  2,011
Variable operating expenses, $m
  502
  514
  527
  541
  557
  575
  594
  614
  637
  660
  673
  700
  729
  760
  793
  827
  864
  903
  944
  987
  1,033
  1,081
  1,132
  1,186
  1,242
  1,302
  1,364
  1,430
  1,500
  1,572
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  107
  110
  112
  115
  117
  120
  122
  125
  128
  131
  133
  136
  139
  142
  146
  149
  152
  155
  159
  162
  166
  169
  173
  177
  181
  185
  189
  193
  197
  202
Total operating expenses, $m
  609
  624
  639
  656
  674
  695
  716
  739
  765
  791
  806
  836
  868
  902
  939
  976
  1,016
  1,058
  1,103
  1,149
  1,199
  1,250
  1,305
  1,363
  1,423
  1,487
  1,553
  1,623
  1,697
  1,774
Operating income, $m
  16
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  54
  59
  64
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  104
  113
  122
  132
  143
  154
  165
  178
  191
  206
  221
  237
EBITDA, $m
  61
  62
  64
  67
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  92
  97
  104
  111
  118
  127
  135
  145
  155
  165
  177
  189
  202
  215
  230
  246
  262
  279
  298
  317
  338
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  33
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
Earnings before tax, $m
  -18
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -3
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  34
  38
  43
  48
  54
  60
  67
  74
  82
  90
  98
  108
  118
  128
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
Net income, $m
  -18
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -3
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  25
  28
  31
  35
  40
  44
  49
  54
  60
  66
  72
  79
  86
  93

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  514
  526
  539
  554
  571
  590
  610
  631
  655
  680
  707
  735
  766
  798
  833
  869
  908
  949
  992
  1,038
  1,086
  1,136
  1,190
  1,246
  1,306
  1,368
  1,434
  1,503
  1,576
  1,652
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  514
  526
  539
  554
  571
  590
  610
  631
  655
  680
  707
  735
  766
  798
  833
  869
  908
  949
  992
  1,038
  1,086
  1,136
  1,190
  1,246
  1,306
  1,368
  1,434
  1,503
  1,576
  1,652
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.216
  1.217
  1.217
  1.218
  1.217
  1.215
  1.216
  1.217
  1.217
  1.216
  1.216
  1.218
  1.217
  1.218
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.216
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
  1.217
Average production assets, $m
  233
  239
  245
  252
  259
  268
  277
  287
  297
  309
  321
  334
  348
  362
  378
  395
  412
  431
  450
  471
  493
  516
  540
  566
  593
  621
  651
  682
  715
  750
Working capital, $m
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
Total debt, $m
  339
  349
  361
  375
  390
  407
  425
  444
  466
  488
  512
  538
  566
  595
  626
  659
  693
  730
  769
  810
  853
  899
  947
  998
  1,051
  1,107
  1,167
  1,229
  1,294
  1,363
Total liabilities, $m
  462
  473
  485
  499
  514
  531
  549
  568
  589
  612
  636
  662
  689
  719
  750
  782
  817
  854
  893
  934
  977
  1,023
  1,071
  1,122
  1,175
  1,231
  1,290
  1,353
  1,418
  1,487
Total equity, $m
  51
  53
  54
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  158
  165
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  513
  526
  539
  554
  571
  590
  610
  631
  654
  680
  707
  736
  766
  799
  833
  869
  908
  949
  992
  1,038
  1,086
  1,137
  1,190
  1,247
  1,306
  1,368
  1,433
  1,503
  1,576
  1,652
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.590
  6.650
  6.700
  6.770
  6.830
  6.900
  6.970
  7.040
  7.110
  7.180
  7.250
  7.320
  7.380
  7.450
  7.510
  7.580
  7.640
  7.700
  7.750
  7.810
  7.860
  7.910
  7.960
  8.010
  8.050
  8.100
  8.140
  8.180
  8.210
  8.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -18
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -3
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  25
  28
  31
  35
  40
  44
  49
  54
  60
  66
  72
  79
  86
  93
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
Funds from operations, $m
  27
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  114
  122
  131
  140
  149
  160
  171
  182
  195
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
Cash from operations, $m
  26
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  46
  50
  50
  53
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  133
  142
  152
  163
  174
  186
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -132
Free cash flow, $m
  -9
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  1
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  25
  29
  34
  38
  43
  49
  54
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -55
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  83
  13
  13
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  7
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  28
  24
  25
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  28
  28
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  90
  98
  106
  114
  123
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -83
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -64
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  17
  20
  23
  25
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  77
  84
  91
  99
  107
  116
Discount rate, %
  12.90
  13.55
  14.22
  14.93
  15.68
  16.46
  17.29
  18.15
  19.06
  20.01
  21.01
  22.06
  23.17
  24.32
  25.54
  26.82
  28.16
  29.57
  31.05
  32.60
  34.23
  35.94
  37.74
  39.62
  41.60
  43.68
  45.87
  48.16
  50.57
  53.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -57
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  39.7
  31.7
  25.6
  21.0
  17.5
  14.9
  13.0
  11.7
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8
  10.8

Jason Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture of seating, finishing, acoustics, and components in the United States and internationally. It produces finishing products, such as industrial brushes, buffing wheels, and buffing compounds for use in various industrial and infrastructure applications; and supplies seating solutions to equipment manufacturers in the motorcycle, lawn and turf care, industrial, agricultural, construction, and power sports end markets, as well as original equipment manufacturer seating for the heavyweight motorcycles. The company also manufactures engineered non-woven and fiber-based acoustical products for the auto industry; and manufactures stamped, formed, expanded and perforated metal components, and subassemblies for rail and filtration applications, outdoor power equipment, small gas engines, and smart utility meters. Jason Industries, Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Jason Industries, Inc. (JASN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

JASN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JASN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $613 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Jason Industries, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Jason Industries, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JASN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.9%, whose default value for JASN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Jason Industries, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Jason Industries, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JASN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $105 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JASN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.4% for Jason Industries, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Jason Industries, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JASN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JASN are equal to 37.3%.

Life of production assets of 7.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Jason Industries, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JASN is equal to 9.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-13.94 million for Jason Industries, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.643 million for Jason Industries, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Jason Industries, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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