Intrinsic value of Jason Industries - JASN

Previous Close

$1.96

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$1.96

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of JASN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  662
  677
  694
  714
  735
  759
  785
  813
  843
  875
  910
  947
  986
  1,028
  1,072
  1,119
  1,169
  1,222
  1,277
  1,336
  1,398
  1,463
  1,532
  1,605
  1,681
  1,762
  1,846
  1,935
  2,029
  2,128
Variable operating expenses, $m
  712
  728
  746
  767
  790
  815
  842
  871
  903
  937
  955
  994
  1,035
  1,079
  1,126
  1,175
  1,227
  1,283
  1,341
  1,403
  1,468
  1,536
  1,608
  1,685
  1,765
  1,849
  1,938
  2,032
  2,130
  2,234
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  712
  728
  746
  767
  790
  815
  842
  871
  903
  937
  955
  994
  1,035
  1,079
  1,126
  1,175
  1,227
  1,283
  1,341
  1,403
  1,468
  1,536
  1,608
  1,685
  1,765
  1,849
  1,938
  2,032
  2,130
  2,234
Operating income, $m
  -51
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
EBITDA, $m
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  32
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
Earnings before tax, $m
  -83
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -218
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -83
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -218

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  557
  570
  584
  601
  619
  639
  661
  684
  710
  737
  766
  797
  830
  865
  903
  942
  984
  1,028
  1,075
  1,125
  1,177
  1,232
  1,290
  1,351
  1,415
  1,483
  1,554
  1,629
  1,708
  1,791
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  557
  570
  584
  601
  619
  639
  661
  684
  710
  737
  766
  797
  830
  865
  903
  942
  984
  1,028
  1,075
  1,125
  1,177
  1,232
  1,290
  1,351
  1,415
  1,483
  1,554
  1,629
  1,708
  1,791
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.189
  1.188
  1.188
  1.188
  1.187
  1.188
  1.188
  1.189
  1.187
  1.187
  1.188
  1.188
  1.188
  1.188
  1.187
  1.188
  1.188
  1.189
  1.188
  1.188
  1.188
  1.188
  1.188
  1.188
  1.188
  1.188
  1.188
  1.188
  1.188
  1.188
Average production assets, $m
  262
  268
  275
  283
  291
  301
  311
  322
  334
  347
  360
  375
  391
  407
  425
  443
  463
  484
  506
  529
  554
  579
  607
  635
  666
  698
  731
  766
  804
  843
Working capital, $m
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
Total debt, $m
  362
  374
  387
  402
  418
  436
  455
  477
  500
  524
  550
  578
  608
  640
  673
  709
  747
  786
  829
  873
  920
  969
  1,022
  1,077
  1,134
  1,195
  1,259
  1,327
  1,398
  1,473
Total liabilities, $m
  501
  513
  526
  541
  557
  575
  595
  616
  639
  663
  689
  717
  747
  779
  812
  848
  886
  926
  968
  1,012
  1,059
  1,109
  1,161
  1,216
  1,274
  1,335
  1,399
  1,466
  1,537
  1,612
Total equity, $m
  56
  57
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  557
  570
  584
  601
  619
  639
  661
  684
  710
  737
  766
  797
  830
  866
  902
  942
  984
  1,029
  1,076
  1,124
  1,177
  1,232
  1,290
  1,351
  1,416
  1,483
  1,554
  1,629
  1,708
  1,791
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.500
  6.560
  6.620
  6.680
  6.750
  6.820
  6.890
  6.970
  7.040
  7.110
  7.180
  7.250
  7.320
  7.390
  7.460
  7.520
  7.590
  7.650
  7.710
  7.760
  7.820
  7.870
  7.920
  7.970
  8.020
  8.060
  8.100
  8.150
  8.190
  8.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -83
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -218
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  47
  48
  49
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  55
  57
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
Funds from operations, $m
  -36
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  -37
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
Free cash flow, $m
  -71
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -262
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -39
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  133
  82
  84
  86
  88
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  176
  185
  195
  205
  215
  226
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  94
  94
  97
  101
  104
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  116
  122
  129
  135
  142
  150
  157
  165
  173
  182
  192
  201
  212
  223
  234
  246
  259
  272
  286
  301
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  22
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -133
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -88
  -91
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -110
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -161
  -170
  -178
  -187
Discount rate, %
  12.70
  13.34
  14.00
  14.70
  15.44
  16.21
  17.02
  17.87
  18.76
  19.70
  20.69
  21.72
  22.81
  23.95
  25.15
  26.40
  27.72
  29.11
  30.56
  32.09
  33.70
  35.38
  37.15
  39.01
  40.96
  43.01
  45.16
  47.41
  49.79
  52.27
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -98
  -45
  -40
  -35
  -30
  -26
  -22
  -18
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  28.8
  24.9
  21.6
  18.7
  16.2
  14.0
  12.1
  10.5
  9.1
  7.9
  7.0
  6.2
  5.4
  4.8
  4.2
  3.7
  3.3
  2.9
  2.6
  2.3
  2.0
  1.8
  1.5
  1.4
  1.2
  1.0
  0.9
  0.8
  0.7
  0.6

Jason Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture of seating, finishing, acoustics, and components in the United States and internationally. It produces finishing products, such as industrial brushes, buffing wheels, and buffing compounds for use in various industrial and infrastructure applications; and supplies seating solutions to equipment manufacturers in the motorcycle, lawn and turf care, industrial, agricultural, construction, and power sports end markets, as well as original equipment manufacturer seating for the heavyweight motorcycles. The company also manufactures engineered non-woven and fiber-based acoustical products for the auto industry; and manufactures stamped, formed, expanded and perforated metal components, and subassemblies for rail and filtration applications, outdoor power equipment, small gas engines, and smart utility meters. Jason Industries, Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Jason Industries (JASN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

JASN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JASN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $648.616 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Jason Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Jason Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JASN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.7%, whose default value for JASN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Jason Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Jason Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JASN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 107.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JASN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8% for Jason Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Jason Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JASN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JASN are equal to 39.6%.

Life of production assets of 8.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Jason Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JASN is equal to 9.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5.684 million for Jason Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.395 million for Jason Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Jason Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Jason Industries: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ Jason Industries Announces Ratings Upgrade   [Aug-23-18 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Jason Industries: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [12:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ CEO's team approach powers Jason Industries   [Jul-19-18 08:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Jason Industries Announces Board of Directors Changes   [Jun-28-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Jason Industries: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 10:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Kevin M. Kuznicki Named Jasons General Counsel   [Apr-04-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Jason Industries posts 4Q profit   [10:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Jason Industries Announces Preferred Stock Exchange   [Jan-23-18 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Jason Industries reports 3Q loss   [Nov-02-17 09:21AM  Associated Press]
▶ Jason Industries Announces Closing of Asset Sales   [Oct-03-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Jason Industries, Inc. Announces CFO Change   [Aug-14-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Jason Industries reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 12:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ Jason Industries reports 1Q loss   [09:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ Jason Industries Hopes for a Better 2017   [Mar-02-17 10:04AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Jason Industries Hopes for a Better 2017   [10:04AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Jason Industries reports 4Q loss   [08:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ Jason reports down quarter, will close Illinois plant   [Nov-04-16 12:25PM  at bizjournals.com]

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